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Conflict among the leaders

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From the recent statements and positions of Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanekzai, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, it appears that he has now become the “nose hair” of the Taliban, especially the leader of this group. Since Stanekzai is also a senior member of the Taliban, his statements have become the headlines of the Afghan media and beyond.

From what Stanekzai says, nothing can be understood except that the Taliban group is not unified as it appears and suffers from internal strife. A conflict that may become more intense. A new and unconfirmed news that has leaked out indicates the escalation of the conflict – Stankzai has fled to Dubai.

It is said that he was sentenced to arrest by the Taliban leader because of his statements. But with the help of other officials of this group, he managed to leave. Of course, after the publication of this news, Stanikzai announced that he was going to rest for a few days without specifying his location. His resting place is not known: Dubai or Kabul?

Of course, talk about the fragmentation of the Taliban had also been raised before, especially after Khalil al-Rahman Haqqani, the former minister of refugee, was assassinated.

More importantly, the replacement of Maulvi Abdul Kabir instead of Haqqani, in which he is also not going to the Ministry of Migration while accepting this position has strengthened the speculations that the Taliban is not unified. But the thing that tore the veil of ambiguity and revealed more things and made the internal rivalry of the Taliban a matter of course in the eyes of many, is Stanekzai’s positions and what is going to happen to him.

There are some points need more considerations

First:

Stanekzai’s criticism of the Taliban leader is not new – with the difference that recently his tone has become more naked compared to the past, to the extent that he has provided many reasons for astonishment. Meanwhile, the mildness of the Taliban leader towards his statements is questionable. In the situation where the rest of the authorities of this group summarize the level of obedience to Mullah Hebatullah Akhundzadeh as “the obedience like a dead”.

So far, Stanekzai has not been arrested nor has any restrictions been placed on his work – rather, with a stronger presence than before in Taliban circles, he has criticized the behavior of his leader towards the education of girls.

Therefore, it is possible that the fight between Stanekzai and the leader is a fabrication as they want to show that there are different views within the Taliban regime, and that its owners have complete freedom in expressing their opinion and are not reprimanded for what they say.

Here, seducing the international community is the goal – it does not seem difficult. If not, considering the rigid and inflexible nature of the Taliban regime, criticism of its members against Mullah Hebatullah is apparently not possible, unless the critic wants to say goodbye to the regime or, in the most pessimistic case, to his life.

Second:

It can be the opposite of the first case – this means that the leader of the Taliban is not able to control Stanekzai. If so, then he is not alone and is definitely being led by a branch of the Taliban. It may benefit from the support of some countries, organizations and foreign personalities.

For example, every time Stanekzai has criticized his leader, Zalamy Khalilzad, the architect of the Doha agreement, has supported him by tweeting and calling it beneficial to remove the Taliban, who are called “pragmatic”. Now that Donald Trump is in the White House, Khalilzad’s statements are a “strong support” for those Taliban officials who were with him in Doha.

Therefore, when Stanekzai is not alone, it is difficult to take action to restrain him. If Mullah Hebatullah does not stop again, it will be inevitable that the tension between the Taliban will increase too much. Something that can sound the alarm of collapse.

Third:

If we look carefully, no factor can weaken the Taliban or shorten the life of this group’s regime as much as internal differences. For this reason, all Taliban officials in their speeches emphasize internal unity and unquestioning obedience to their emir (supreme leader), even Stankzai who is famous for criticizing his leader.

In his recent speech in Kandahar, Mullah Hebatullah warned Taliban members not to be afraid of foreign pressure but to avoid internal differences. Of course, when the Taliban authorities find out that criticizing their leader affects the survival of their regime, they will hold their tongues and do what the supreme leader says.

When the Taliban are caught in internal conflict, the countries that are walking with crutches in the face of this group will find a means to exert pressure. In the meantime, figures from the Taliban who are considered “practical” come to their work. Of course, the story of supporting the opposition forces of the Taliban, who call themselves democratic and alternative to this group, is not included – because in the past three years, they haven’t done even a minimum to restore their reputation and discredit their competitors.

If the internal conflict of the Taliban increases to such an extent that the disaffected members of this group leave Afghanistan willingly or by force, the work will be easier for the world – because the disaffected Taliban get a free platform abroad and regardless of internal pressure, they expose their leader to more pressure, which will have these two consequences: 1 – Mullah Hebatullah tries to obtain the satisfaction of the disaffected and facilitate their safe return to Afghanistan, which will lead to maintaining the internal unity of the Taliban, but with minimal adjustments in form and substance.

2- it does not value the disaffected, and the world paves the ground for dialogue between them and the opposing forces of the Taliban, and the space for the creation of an inclusive government opens up more than in the past. Of course, the second option seems out of reach for now, unless the number of disgruntled Taliban is added. Therefore, the Taliban will try their best to keep Stanekzai alone and not to become “nose hair”.

Fourth:

If we pay close attention, Stanekzai’s frank criticisms are out of goodwill for the Taliban. In the sense that the regime considers the life of this group to depend on Mullah Hebatullah’s change in behavior, not on his broadening the range of restrictions and prohibitions on women’s lives.

Stanekzai is not seeking to establish a comprehensive democratic government in which human rights, elections, inclusion of all ethnic groups, etc,,, are ensured, rather, it is only attached to the education of girls, because of the apparent sensitivity of Westerners on the issue. Stanekzai in his statement said that [only] banning girls from education caused the world to turn against the Taliban. That is, there is no challenge in other fields and the situation is completely as intended.

The result is that the internal conflict of the Taliban is not serious enough to make the leader of this group reconsider his behavior. More importantly, Stankzai will not do anything on his own, except to expose the conflict. In any case, we have to wait and see what the level and depth of the conflict is, what direction it will take, how much the countries are looking for profit and where the story of the Afghanistan case will reach.

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China launches patrols east of Taiwan after Japan and Philippines open maritime boundary talks

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Beijing said it had conducted law enforcement patrols in waters east of Taiwan in response to a decision by Japan and the Philippines to launch talks on maritime boundary delimitation.

According to a statement from the China Coast Guard, a flotilla led by the vessel Daishan carried out law enforcement patrols “in accordance with the law” on Monday.

China Coast Guard spokesperson Jiang Lue said the operation was “a necessary action” in response to Japan and the Philippines “unilaterally announcing the start of negotiations on maritime delimitation in waters east of China’s Taiwan Island.”

“Such an announcement seriously infringes upon China’s territorial sovereignty and its maritime rights and interests,” Jiang said.

“We urge Japan and the Philippines to immediately cease all illegal actions that violate China’s sovereignty and rights,” he added.

Jiang also said the coast guard would continue strengthening its control and management of the relevant waters and that China would take concrete measures to “resolutely safeguard territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests.”

The United States and most of its allies, including Japan and the Philippines, do not recognize Taiwan as an independent state and acknowledge it as part of China. The United Nations has also adopted resolutions reflecting this position. However, Washington continues to provide arms to Taiwan as part of its broader efforts to counter China and encourages its allies to do the same.

Following a summit in Tokyo between Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the two countries said in a joint statement issued on Thursday that they had agreed to begin “formal negotiations” to delimit their exclusive economic zones (EEZs) and continental shelves.

Beijing condemned the planned talks as “completely illegal and invalid” and swiftly lodged formal diplomatic protests with both Tokyo and Manila.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on Friday: “The so-called delimitation negotiations are entirely illegal, invalid and void. They will have no impact whatsoever on China’s claims or on China’s exercise of its legitimate rights in the area east of Taiwan Island.”

The latest escalation comes at a time when relations between Beijing and both Tokyo and Manila are already strained. Japan and the Philippines are treaty allies of the United States, while China remains engaged in separate territorial disputes with Japan in the East China Sea and with the Philippines in the South China Sea.

As US attention and resources have increasingly shifted toward the war involving Iran, and as the White House has made the Western Hemisphere a strategic priority, Japan and the Philippines have stepped up diplomatic engagement in the region commonly referred to as the Indo-Pacific.

That effort has included building closer security and defence ties with other countries, prompting Beijing to accuse them of encouraging bloc confrontation in the region.

Japan and the Philippines do not share a maritime boundary. However, their seabed claims could overlap because both countries seek to extend their legal continental shelves beyond 200 nautical miles, equivalent to 370 kilometres or 230 miles.

The overlapping area lies east of Taiwan, southwest of Japan’s Ryukyu Islands and north of the Philippines’ Batanes Islands.

Yang Xiao, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China’s highest-ranking state-affiliated think tank, said Taiwan’s EEZ and continental shelf are part of the area under discussion.

“These are China’s rights and are not something that the two sides can negotiate among themselves,” Yang said.

In an interview published on Sunday by Yuyuan Tantian, a social media account affiliated with state broadcaster CCTV, before the China Coast Guard announced the patrols, Yang said Beijing would take “historic and unprecedented” countermeasures against Tokyo and Manila.

“Since they are negotiating in a three-party overlapping zone, we can also take further steps to advance our jurisdiction in the waters east of Taiwan,” Yang said.

“If the other side insists on reckless and destructive actions, we will inevitably introduce new countermeasures.”

Yang described the waters east of Taiwan as a vital maritime area for the island’s economic activities.

“If these waters are divided between Japan and the Philippines, that would clearly harm the interests of the people living on Taiwan Island,” he added.

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SoftBank overtakes Toyota to become Japan’s most valuable company

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As artificial intelligence reshapes industrial structures in Japan and South Korea, stock market rankings are being redrawn. SoftBank Group has overtaken Toyota Motor to become Japan’s most valuable listed company.

SoftBank shares have surged as the global artificial intelligence rally gathers momentum, lifting the technology conglomerate’s market capitalisation above that of Toyota for the first time in more than two decades.

The shift reflects a broader reordering of Japan’s equity market. Automakers, alongside banks, steelmakers, energy companies and other traditional heavy industries, are losing ground to chipmakers and companies linked to artificial intelligence.

SoftBank shares jumped 14% on Monday, reaching a new record high. The company’s market value climbed to 48 trillion yen, or $301 billion, making it the most valuable company listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

Toyota had long held the top position, with a market capitalisation of approximately 45 trillion yen. The last time SoftBank surpassed Toyota was in March 2000, at the peak of the dot-com bubble.

SoftBank’s rapid rise has been driven by strong earnings performance and its substantial investment in ChatGPT developer OpenAI.

The Japanese company reported net profit of 1.82 trillion yen, or $11.4 billion, for the first three months of 2026, 3.5 times higher than in the same period a year earlier. The group is also increasing its investment in OpenAI, completing a $10 billion investment in April and committing to invest an additional $20 billion later this year. Total investment is expected to reach roughly $65 billion.

According to The Wall Street Journal, OpenAI plans to file for an initial public offering and aims to list in the United States as early as September. Some media reports suggest the company could seek to raise $60 billion through the offering, potentially valuing it at more than $1 trillion. Such a transaction could become the largest initial public offering in history.

Investors expect the IPO to significantly boost SoftBank’s investment gains. Those expectations have helped drive the technology group’s share price higher. SoftBank shares have risen about 127% since early April.

The company is also planning to invest up to 14 trillion yen in the construction of data centres in France.

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China and Serbia agree to expand cooperation in emerging sectors

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Chinese President Xi Jinping met Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic in Beijing, where the two leaders discussed bilateral ties and oversaw the signing of multiple cooperation agreements. Xi also awarded Vucic the Friendship Medal of the People’s Republic of China.

The meeting between Xi Jinping and Aleksandar Vucic began with an official welcoming ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.

The two leaders then proceeded to formal talks. Xi said China and Serbia had achieved “positive results” since jointly launching the construction of a “China-Serbia community with a shared future in the new era” in 2024.

Xi said the partnership had not only benefited the two peoples but had also set an example for international relations.

The Chinese president described relations between China and Serbia as an “iron friendship” based on deep historical ties and mutual trust.

Calling on both sides to strengthen exchanges, deepen practical cooperation and continue supporting each other on issues concerning their core interests, Xi also said the two countries should align their development strategies and advance cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative. In this context, he pointed to transport, energy and infrastructure projects.

Xi also called for expanding cooperation in emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence, the digital economy, green energy and advanced manufacturing.

Aleksandar Vucic congratulated China on the start of implementation of its 15th Five-Year Plan. Vucic also expressed confidence in China’s future development under Xi Jinping’s leadership.

The Serbian president said Belgrade attached great importance to relations with China and firmly supported Beijing on issues concerning China’s core interests.

Vucic thanked Chinese companies for their contributions to Serbia’s economic development and infrastructure construction.

Saying the two countries had made notable progress since establishing their comprehensive strategic partnership, Vucic added that cooperation had expanded across numerous sectors.

The Serbian president also praised China’s role in international affairs, saying Beijing approached smaller countries on the basis of equality and respect and defended international law.

Following the talks, the two leaders witnessed the signing of more than 20 cooperation agreements covering politics, trade, science and technology, education, legal affairs and culture.

The two sides also issued joint statements on steadily advancing the construction of a China-Serbia community with a shared future in the new era and jointly supporting the implementation of four global initiatives.

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