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Confrontation between ex-and-current PM pushing Pakistan into civil-war-like situation

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Pakistan faces a political flash point after police have charged the country’s former Prime Minster Imran Khan under anti-terror laws. Khan is looking and making efforts day and night to make possible his return as he allegedly accused the US and the Pakistan army for removing him from office in a “dawn” conspiracy. He was ousted in April following a vote of no confidence over allegations of economic mismanagement and mishandling of the country’s foreign policy.

Apparently, rising prices of food, the country’s debt and the loss of military support have only worsened under the current government led by PM Shehbaz Sharif, and people are turning back to Khan. In July, residents of Punjab, Pakistan’s most populous state had given Khan’s party Tehreek-e-Insafa, a landmark victory in local elections.

During the time of elections, Khan said that “our camps are full of voters while opposition camps are empty.”

However, Khan is in big trouble now. He has so many inquiries to succeed. Khan, a cricketer-turned-politician, has been charged with “terrorizing and threatening” police officers and a female judge at a rally in the capital city Islamabad.

Khan said he “will not remain silent” and will sue the officials, referring to the police chief and judge involved in the case against Shahbaz Gill, his close aide and chief of staff. Gill, who faces sedition charges for inciting mutiny in the military, has allegedly been tortured in police custody.

Khan’s speech also prompted the country’s media watchdog to ban television channels from broadcasting his live addresses and also blocked Mr. Khan’s YouTube channel, a move Khan said will be challenged in court.

Khan in a tweet said, “Imported government blocked YouTube midway through my speech. This just shows the desperation of those who for their self interest are willing to push Pakistan towards political and economic chaos.”

It is no easy to arrest Khan

Things turned worse and fragile when Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah said the government was mulling over the ex-premier Khan’s arrest, yet another big trouble for Khan but a job for the police as Khan’s supporters will not allow them to take him away so simply.

Khan himself did not immediately comment, but his hundreds of supporters surrounded his home to potentially stop police from reaching him. Khan is now secured transit bail till August 25 after he filed a pre-arrest bail application in the Islamabad High Court earlier to avoid arrest in a terror case filed against him.

Political, economic and social crisis

“I believe that confrontation between Imran Khan and Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif led to coalition partners touching its peak. Registration of cases/FIR’s between the two sides now plunging the country into a civil war like situation,” Shamim Shaid, a Pakistan political expert told Harici.

Shaid said that Pakistan is ahead with multiple issues like economic crisis, growing violence and terrorism in the region, Taliban empowering in its close neighbor Afghanistan, banned TTP’s (Pakistani Taliban) demands for declaring Tribal districts as free zones, economic crisis and rising rate of poverty and unemployment.

“Pakistan is also ahead with another serious issue of debts, which is now over six hundred billion dollars. The IMF also slaps more conditions on Pakistan by passing each day – and almost Balochistan and Sindh are ahead with flood havoc. In the light of the existing internal and internal crisis Pakistan couldn’t afford political confrontation,” Shaid added.

Pakistan has been going through a political instability, and this is the matter of concern.

Accusations against Khan

“There is an open fight going on between Khan’s party, Tehreek-e-Insafa, and the federal government under Sharif’s administration, and the anti-terrorism charges related to Khan is considered one of the biggest charges in Pakistan,” Rasheed Safi, an Islamabad-based political commentator and columnists told Harici.

Safi said that the current terrorism charges, and the recent report accusing Khan’s party of receiving funds from abroad, which is illegal in Pakistan, has obviously created a new tension for Imran Khan to deal with.

Besides that, Safi said that the Pakistan Federal Investigation Agency has also launched an inquiry against Khan and his party for selling a gifted necklace. Investigation agency (FIA) claimed that Imran Khan had purchased state gifts such as cufflinks, a watch, ring and other valuables at Rs20m and sold them for Rs180m instead of depositing it to the state gift repository.

These are the three big allegations against Imran Khan and to his political party which could have proved a deterrent for him.

“If we look from the perspective of law, Imran Khan and some of key figures in Tehreek-e-Insafa are under immense pressure at the moment. The arrest of Imran Khan after 25 August is also not out of the ordinary,” Safi added.

But the arrest of Khan is not an easy task, Safi said that the government institutions in Pakistan are weak and the officials also fear implication.

Pakistan could anytime lead to a full military rule

But in a bigger picture, Pakistan could anytime lead to a full military rule in the midst of a major political and constitutional crisis, with Khan’s supporters already warned to take over Pakistan if police tried to arrest him.

It is fear that who will stop the public, a population of 220 million people if the political party strays from the path of law and constitution.

Ali Amin Khan Gandapur, Former Federal Minister for Kashmir Affairs and Minister for Revenue and Estate Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), said that if Khan is arrested they will take over Islamabad by the power of people, and called on police to stop being part of this political war anymore.

Khan’s supporters taking social media platforms said that the police must first run over them before they can reach Khan.

The Pakistani military establishment is aware of the fact that Khan can still hold mass protests, and could draw millions out to the street, not good at all for a nuclear-armed nation amid an economic crisis, exacerbated by rising global food prices due to the Russia-Ukraine war.

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Syria will not follow Afghanistan’s Taliban model of governance

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In an astonishing statement, Ahmed Shará, also known as Abu Mohamad Jolani, the leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) said that he will allow the girls to go to schools and will not turn Syria like Afghanistan under the rule of the Taliban.

Jolani, the de facto ruler of Syria, said that he will distance himself from the Taliban’s strict policies on women’s rights, and said that Syria will not follow the Taliban’s mode of governance.  

Jolani, who brought down the government of Bashar al-Assad and also widely welcomed by the Taliban, said that he believes in the education of women and girls and will not make Syria like Afghanistan.

“Syria is a diverse society with various ideas, unlike Afghanistan, which is more tribal. The Afghan model cannot be applied here,” Jolani told a BBC reporter.

Jolani says that Syria is a diverse society with various ideas, unlike Afghanistan, which is more tribal.

Jolani’s comment came when the Taliban congratulated the HTS-led victory by Jolani over Assad’s regime after years of fighting. The Afghan Foreign Ministry celebrated Jolani’s victory through a statement and hoped Jolani can bring peace and stability in the country.

“It is hoped that the power transition process is advanced in a manner that lays the foundation of a sovereign and serve-oriented Islamic government in the line with the aspiration of the Syrian people; that unifies the entire population without discrimination and retribution through adoption of a general assembly; and a positive foreign policy with world countries the safeguard Syria from a threat of negative rivalries of foreign actors and creates conditions for the return of millions of refugees,” the statement by Taliban Foreign Ministry.

However, Jolan’s position on the rights of women and girls is in great contrast with the current view of the Taliban leadership. Women and girls have been banned from education and work since the return of the Taliban in August 2021, following the collapse of the Republic System and withdrawal of the US troops from Afghanistan. Girls and women are even banned from medical institutions and visiting public spaces.

Jolani says he has a plan to create a government based institution and a council chosen by the people. 

The situation got worse when the Taliban’s Ministry for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice called women’s voices “immodest” compounding their exclusion from public life. This year, it has been marked as three years since girls were banned from pursuing education over sixth grade. Besides that, on December 20, 2022, the Taliban’s Ministry of Higher Education announced that women would be barred from attending public and private universities.    

In an interview with CNN, Jolani said that he has a plan to create a government based on institutions and a “council chosen by the people.”

“When we talk about objectives, the goal of the revolution remains the overthrow of this regime. It is our right to use all available means to achieve that goal,” said Jolani.

“The seeds of the regime’s defeat have always been within it… the Iranians attempted to revive the regime, buying it time, and later the Russians also tried to prop it up. But the truth remains: this regime is dead.”

Moreover, he also said the Syrian people are the “rightful owners” of the country after the ouster of Assad, and declared a “new history” has been written for the entire Middle East.

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Yoon summoned again for questioning on treason charges

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A joint law enforcement team investigating South Korea’s martial law case announced on Friday that it has issued a second summons to ousted President Yoon Suk Yeol, requesting his presence for questioning next week. The inquiry concerns his alleged involvement in the failed implementation of martial law.

The team has scheduled the questioning for 10:00 a.m. next Wednesday at the Corruption Investigation Office for Senior Officials (CIO) headquarters in Gwacheon, located just south of Seoul. This marks the second summons after Yoon refused to cooperate with the initial notice earlier this week.

The decision to hold the questioning on a public holiday appears to be a strategic move by the CIO, likely aimed at addressing security concerns. The office confirmed that the summonses were delivered via express mail and electronically to both Yoon’s residence and the presidential office in Yongsan. Notably, after Yoon’s team refused to accept the first subpoena, the CIO opted against delivering the documents in person for this round.

The investigation focuses on Yoon’s role in the December 3 martial law declaration, which he revoked following a vote in the National Assembly. If Yoon continues to disregard the summons without valid justification, the CIO may seek a court order to detain him for up to 48 hours.

Yoon faces allegations of sedition and abuse of office, charges that have gained traction since his dismissal by parliament last Saturday. His suspension from office remains in effect pending a decision by the Constitutional Court, which will determine whether he is permanently removed or reinstated.

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Xi Jinping champions economic diversification during Macau visit

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During a three-day visit to Macau commemorating the 25th anniversary of its return to Chinese sovereignty from Portugal, President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of economic diversification and maintaining the “one country, two systems” framework.

Speaking at the swearing-in ceremony for Macau’s new Chief Executive Officer, Sam Hou-fai, Xi urged the administration to make economic diversification the city’s primary focus. Sam, the fourth leader since the 1999 handover and the first mainland-born Chinese official to hold the position, is expected to align closely with Beijing’s objectives to reduce Macau’s reliance on gambling. The gambling industry, which accounts for approximately 80% of Macau’s tax revenue, has been the cornerstone of its rapid economic growth in recent years.

“Macau should prioritize proper economic diversification,” Xi stated, calling for enhanced policy support and investment in emerging sectors. He also reiterated the significance of the “one country, two systems” principle, stressing its role in ensuring the city’s “prosperity and stability” for the long term.

Xi’s visit included stops at the Macau University of Science and Technology, where he explored laboratories focusing on traditional Chinese medicine and planetary science. He also attended a cultural performance at the Macau Dome and met with local stakeholders, according to Chinese state media. His trip marked a shift in tone, with Anthony Lawrence, founder of Intelligence Macau, noting that it was the first time Xi publicly praised Macau for its progress rather than delivering critiques or instructions.

Since the liberalization of Macau’s gaming monopoly in 2002, the city has attracted significant foreign investment, including from prominent US casino operators such as Las Vegas Sands, MGM, and Wynn Resorts. However, the economy struggled during the COVID-19 pandemic due to travel restrictions, and recovery has only recently begun.

On Friday, Macau’s casinos were bustling with visitors, while non-gaming initiatives like a stamp exhibition co-organized by MGM China and Beijing’s Palace Museum showcased the city’s efforts to diversify its offerings.

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