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Confrontation between ex-and-current PM pushing Pakistan into civil-war-like situation

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Pakistan faces a political flash point after police have charged the country’s former Prime Minster Imran Khan under anti-terror laws. Khan is looking and making efforts day and night to make possible his return as he allegedly accused the US and the Pakistan army for removing him from office in a “dawn” conspiracy. He was ousted in April following a vote of no confidence over allegations of economic mismanagement and mishandling of the country’s foreign policy.

Apparently, rising prices of food, the country’s debt and the loss of military support have only worsened under the current government led by PM Shehbaz Sharif, and people are turning back to Khan. In July, residents of Punjab, Pakistan’s most populous state had given Khan’s party Tehreek-e-Insafa, a landmark victory in local elections.

During the time of elections, Khan said that “our camps are full of voters while opposition camps are empty.”

However, Khan is in big trouble now. He has so many inquiries to succeed. Khan, a cricketer-turned-politician, has been charged with “terrorizing and threatening” police officers and a female judge at a rally in the capital city Islamabad.

Khan said he “will not remain silent” and will sue the officials, referring to the police chief and judge involved in the case against Shahbaz Gill, his close aide and chief of staff. Gill, who faces sedition charges for inciting mutiny in the military, has allegedly been tortured in police custody.

Khan’s speech also prompted the country’s media watchdog to ban television channels from broadcasting his live addresses and also blocked Mr. Khan’s YouTube channel, a move Khan said will be challenged in court.

Khan in a tweet said, “Imported government blocked YouTube midway through my speech. This just shows the desperation of those who for their self interest are willing to push Pakistan towards political and economic chaos.”

It is no easy to arrest Khan

Things turned worse and fragile when Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah said the government was mulling over the ex-premier Khan’s arrest, yet another big trouble for Khan but a job for the police as Khan’s supporters will not allow them to take him away so simply.

Khan himself did not immediately comment, but his hundreds of supporters surrounded his home to potentially stop police from reaching him. Khan is now secured transit bail till August 25 after he filed a pre-arrest bail application in the Islamabad High Court earlier to avoid arrest in a terror case filed against him.

Political, economic and social crisis

“I believe that confrontation between Imran Khan and Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif led to coalition partners touching its peak. Registration of cases/FIR’s between the two sides now plunging the country into a civil war like situation,” Shamim Shaid, a Pakistan political expert told Harici.

Shaid said that Pakistan is ahead with multiple issues like economic crisis, growing violence and terrorism in the region, Taliban empowering in its close neighbor Afghanistan, banned TTP’s (Pakistani Taliban) demands for declaring Tribal districts as free zones, economic crisis and rising rate of poverty and unemployment.

“Pakistan is also ahead with another serious issue of debts, which is now over six hundred billion dollars. The IMF also slaps more conditions on Pakistan by passing each day – and almost Balochistan and Sindh are ahead with flood havoc. In the light of the existing internal and internal crisis Pakistan couldn’t afford political confrontation,” Shaid added.

Pakistan has been going through a political instability, and this is the matter of concern.

Accusations against Khan

“There is an open fight going on between Khan’s party, Tehreek-e-Insafa, and the federal government under Sharif’s administration, and the anti-terrorism charges related to Khan is considered one of the biggest charges in Pakistan,” Rasheed Safi, an Islamabad-based political commentator and columnists told Harici.

Safi said that the current terrorism charges, and the recent report accusing Khan’s party of receiving funds from abroad, which is illegal in Pakistan, has obviously created a new tension for Imran Khan to deal with.

Besides that, Safi said that the Pakistan Federal Investigation Agency has also launched an inquiry against Khan and his party for selling a gifted necklace. Investigation agency (FIA) claimed that Imran Khan had purchased state gifts such as cufflinks, a watch, ring and other valuables at Rs20m and sold them for Rs180m instead of depositing it to the state gift repository.

These are the three big allegations against Imran Khan and to his political party which could have proved a deterrent for him.

“If we look from the perspective of law, Imran Khan and some of key figures in Tehreek-e-Insafa are under immense pressure at the moment. The arrest of Imran Khan after 25 August is also not out of the ordinary,” Safi added.

But the arrest of Khan is not an easy task, Safi said that the government institutions in Pakistan are weak and the officials also fear implication.

Pakistan could anytime lead to a full military rule

But in a bigger picture, Pakistan could anytime lead to a full military rule in the midst of a major political and constitutional crisis, with Khan’s supporters already warned to take over Pakistan if police tried to arrest him.

It is fear that who will stop the public, a population of 220 million people if the political party strays from the path of law and constitution.

Ali Amin Khan Gandapur, Former Federal Minister for Kashmir Affairs and Minister for Revenue and Estate Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), said that if Khan is arrested they will take over Islamabad by the power of people, and called on police to stop being part of this political war anymore.

Khan’s supporters taking social media platforms said that the police must first run over them before they can reach Khan.

The Pakistani military establishment is aware of the fact that Khan can still hold mass protests, and could draw millions out to the street, not good at all for a nuclear-armed nation amid an economic crisis, exacerbated by rising global food prices due to the Russia-Ukraine war.

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Japan considers Alaska gas pipeline to appease Trump

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Japan is considering backing a $44 billion natural gas pipeline in Alaska to curry favor with US President Donald Trump and avoid potential trade frictions, three officials familiar with the matter told Reuters.

Officials in Tokyo expect Trump to raise the project, which he has said is key to US prosperity and security, when he meets with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba for the first time in Washington next week.

Japan has doubts about the viability of the 800-mile pipeline, which would connect fields in northern Alaska to a southern port where the gas would be liquefied and shipped to Asian customers, because of the total cost of the gas compared to other sources. But officials said they were prepared to offer to explore a deal if requested.

Tokyo could include such a commitment among other concessions, such as buying more US gas and increasing defense spending and manufacturing investment in the US to reduce the $56 billion bilateral trade deficit and stave off the threat of tariffs, one of the officials said.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the meeting. Japan’s Foreign Ministry said it was premature to discuss the issue.

Details of Japan’s possible interest in the Alaska project had not previously been reported. According to Reuters, the officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media.

Promise to unlock Alaska’s resource potential

Among the decrees Trump signed when he took office on 20 January was one promising to unlock Alaska’s resource potential, “including the sale and transport of Alaska LNG to other parts of the United States and allied countries in the Pacific region.”

Trump described the gas project as a win for Alaska and US allies in Asia seeking a stable source of energy. But Japan already has ample access to LNG, and its companies traded about 38 million tonnes last year, more than half of its domestic consumption.

Still, the Alaska pipeline could help Japan diversify its supplies from sources such as Russia and the Middle East, where it realizes about a tenth of its gas imports.

Ishiba told parliament on Friday that Japan needs to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels, saying “there are things we need to demand from the United States in terms of stable energy supply.” He did not elaborate on this and did not mention the Alaska project.

Officials cautioned that Ishiba would not be able to make firm commitments on LNG, including investing in the Alaska project, when he meets with Trump. A fourth official said any deal must offer reasonable pricing and flexibility, including allowing Japanese buyers to resell the LNG they buy.

Efforts to bond with Trump

Since returning to the White House, Mr Trump has spoken of a series of tariffs on foreign goods but has said little about his approach to economic and security relations with Japan. But the issue has dominated political discourse in Japan, a key US ally and largest foreign investor, which was shaken by Trump’s tariffs on steel imports during his first term and his demand that Tokyo pay more to host American troops.

Media attention in Tokyo has focused on whether Ishiba, who became prime minister last year and heads a minority government, can replicate the bond with Trump that former Japanese leader Shinzo Abe forged during his first term.

Abe, who was assassinated in 2022, was the first foreign leader to meet Trump after his 2016 election victory, and the two became “close confidants” and golfing partners.

The Ishiba administration, which has no such acquaintance with Trump’s inner circle, has sought advice from US lawmakers and policy experts with ties to both Japan and Trump. These include Tennessee Senator Bill Hagerty, the former US ambassador to Tokyo, and Kenneth Weinstein, Japan director of the Hudson Institute, a conservative think tank.

Weinstein told Reuters that he encouraged Japan to deepen its energy partnerships with the United States and that the Alaska project requires serious consideration. Hagerty’s office did not respond to questions.

Tokyo-based businessman Ado Machida, who served on Trump’s transition team after his 2016 election victory, said Japan’s offer to buy more LNG and support the Alaska LNG pipeline would be “probably the easiest” way to win Trump.

“Trump will want to know what Japan will do for him,” Machida said, adding that he had spoken to Japanese government officials about the offer.

State-owned banks such as the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) could provide financing for the Alaska project to trading firms such as Mitsubishi Corp. and Mitsui & Co., which Japan relies on to secure its offshore oil, gas and coal reserves, one of the officials said.

In 2022, Mitsubishi reached an agreement with Alaska Gasline Development Corporation (AGDC), the state-owned company overseeing the LNG proposal, to assess the feasibility of producing ammonia there. Mitsubishi did not commit to the project beyond the evaluation.

Mitsubishi and Mitsui declined to comment on potential investments and discussions related to the Alaska LNG project. JBIC said it would consider providing support on a case-by-case basis, taking into account factors such as any participation by Japanese companies.

A spokesperson for AGDC told Reuters that it had held discussions with Japanese energy leaders about the project but gave no details.

The project, first approved during Trump’s previous term, received authorization from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission in 2020 and final regulatory approval in 2022, despite opposition from environmental groups.

This month, AGDC announced that it had signed an agreement with developer Glenfarne to move the pipeline forward.

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The human cost of US aid suspension: Ethical and practical concerns  

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President Trump’s halt of all existing foreign assistance – with very limited exceptions – will have disastrous consequences for millions of Afghans, among many others around the world. Its approach of a 90-day freeze and stop-work may offer an opportunity for the reform of the international aid system and its bureaucracy, but its potential costs in lives and suffering will raise serious ethical questions.

While the new U.S. administration has legitimate concerns about foreign assistance, it could have taken a more compassionate and responsible approach to address them. First, two of the administration’s concerns – aid efficiency and accountability, as well as diversion by the Taliban and others – are widely shared by the Afghan people, as they undermine the generosity of U.S. taxpayers and other donor nations and divert life-saving resources away from those truly in need.

A serious assessment to enhance efficiency, effectiveness, and accountability within the aid bureaucracy, reduce its hefty overheads, and prevent diversion and misuse was long overdue.

However, linking aid to the interests of the donor – with consistency of foreign aid with U.S. policies cited as the third reason for the suspension – marks a significant departure from long-held international humanitarian principles.

These principles dictate that humanitarian aid should be provided based solely on human needs, forming a key part of the rules-based global order that the U.S. has historically championed and defended. While the international community has applied different rules to development financing as part of their foreign policy, humanitarian aid has remained distinct and often shielded from non-humanitarian considerations.

Second, the suspension of aid poses serious life-threatening risks to hundreds of millions of aid recipients whose lives and livelihoods depend on such assistance. The impact will be extensive given the scale of U.S. foreign assistance, which is the largest among global aid donors. This will be particularly painful and costly for Afghans, of whom, according to a recent UN report, about 11.6 million—roughly 25% of the population—have recently experienced acute food insecurity at “crisis” or higher levels.

Although it is reassuring that emergency food aid is one of the three exceptions—the other two being military aid to Israel and Egypt—the policy details and guidelines remain unclear. In the case of Afghanistan, even if food aid is not part of the suspension, the impact will still be enormously harmful. Millions of Afghan people, including women and children, depend not only on existing U.S. assistance for food aid but also on water, shelter, critical healthcare services, mine clearance, as well as education and agricultural recovery. Even before the uncertain outcome of the U.S. assessment, the speculative impact of the announcement has already caused a 13% depreciation in the value of the Afghan currency against the U.S. dollar, reducing the purchasing power of one of the world’s poorest and most vulnerable populations. It would have been more appropriate for the new administration, both technically and ethically, to conduct the assessment—and possibly implement reform measures—while ensuring the continuation of all life-saving and sustaining assistance. The U.S. is certainly in a better position to manage three more months of inefficiencies within the aid system than the hundreds of millions of hungry and desperate people who now face the risks of this suspension.

The article is written by the former Afghan Foreign Minister Mohammad Haneef Atmar.

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Asian, European chipmakers rebound after Nvidia, ASML earnings

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Chipmakers in Asia and Europe rebounded on Wednesday after strong corporate earnings from Dutch group ASML Holding added to industry leader Nvidia’s overnight rally.

The rebound came after US chipmaker Nvidia closed up 9 percent on Tuesday, recouping some of the heavy losses that wiped $600 billion off its market value earlier in the week as investors worried about the threat to US supremacy in artificial intelligence posed by China’s DeepSeek.

The emergence of DeepSeek, which is touted to develop AI tools at a fraction of the cost of US competitors, has been called a contemporary “Sputnik moment.”

Japan’s technology-heavy Nikkei 225 index closed up 1 percent after a recovery in semiconductor stocks and artificial intelligence investor SoftBank.

The Stoxx Europe 600 benchmark rose 0.5 percent, led by ASML Holding. The chip equipment manufacturer announced earnings that exceeded analysts’ expectations, and its shares rose 11.5 percent in Amsterdam. Nvidia shares rose another 0.6 percent in pre-market trading on Wednesday.

Futures markets pointed to further recovery in the US, with contracts tracking the Nasdaq up 0.4 percent and those tracking the S&P 500 up 0.1 percent.

Overreaction

“Markets have taken a calmer view of developments in China with AI, and perhaps it is a reflection that Monday’s moves were an overreaction,” said Mitul Kotecha, head of emerging markets macro and currency strategy at Barclays.

Goldman Sachs’ Asian market analysts said in a note on Tuesday night that “oversold high-quality stocks may also provide some investment opportunities,” adding, “We think strong companies will further strengthen.”

In Tokyo, Nvidia supplier Advantest closed up 4.4 percent, while semiconductor company Tokyo Electron rose 2.3 percent. SoftBank ended the day with an increase of 2.4 percent.

Markets in the rest of Asia were also lively on Wednesday. India’s Nifty 50 rose almost 1 percent in afternoon trading, while Australia’s ASX 200 closed up 0.6 percent. China, South Korea, and Taiwan were closed for the Lunar New Year holiday.

However, analysts warned that the recovery has yet to fully undo Monday’s panic falls as investors digest the results of US tech’s heavy investment in artificial intelligence in light of DeepSeek’s successes.

“There was no recovery as if nothing had happened. It’s just a reflection that Monday’s move was a bit overdone,” said Kotecha from Barclays.

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