Calls from President Trump and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte for increased European defense spending have ignited a debate among European leaders. Dr. Ingo Piepers, founder of Global4Cast, told Harici how this could reshape Europe’s path toward strategic autonomy.

Ahmetcan Uzlaşık, Brussels

On January 7, Donald Trump stated that NATO members should spend 5% of their gross domestic product (GDP) on defence, marking a solid increase from the current 2% target. NATO Chief Mark Rutte also expressed his approval of Donald Trump’s return to the White House, by stating that his presidency would “turbo-charge defense spending and production” within the alliance.

NATO projected that 23 of its 32 member nations achieved the target of allocating 2% of their GDP to defense spending in 2024. However, no member, including the United States, currently dedicates as much as 5% of GDP to defense. Among the alliance, Poland leads with defense spending equivalent to 4.12% of its GDP, followed by Estonia at 3.43% and the United States at 3.38%, while Türkiye spends 2.09% of its GDP.

Eight of NATO’s 32 member countries fail to meet the alliance’s recommended defense spending target of 2% of GDP. Among them are Spain (1.28%), Slovenia (1.29%), Luxembourg (1.29%), and Belgium (1.30%), with slightly higher figures for Canada (1.37%), Italy (1.49%), Portugal (1.55%), and Croatia (1.81%).

Poland: The biggest spender

Poland’s Defence Minister has expressed support for Donald Trump’s call for NATO members to allocate 5% of their GDP to defense. He emphasized on January 12 that Poland “can be the transatlantic link between this challenge set by President Trump and its implementation in Europe.” As NATO’s largest relative spender, Poland currently dedicates 4.12% of its GDP to defense in 2024, with plans to increase this to 4.7% in 2025. Notably, Poland has recently taken over the EU Council presidency, with a strong focus on defense and security.

European Countries Grapple with NATO’s 5% Defense Spending Target

European countries are adopting varying stances on the ambitious 5% target proposed by Trump. While Germany has met NATO’s 2% defense spending target for 2024, it falls short of Trump’s demand for a 5% increase. Despite a significant boost in military spending since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Germany is facing budgetary constraints that complicate future funding, with a projected €16 billion budget gap for 2025.

In contrast, Baltic nations approach the issue more urgently. Lithuania has taken a bold step, committing to raise its defense spending to between 5-6% of GDP by 2026. Similarly, Estonia plans to spend 3.7% of its GDP on defense.

Sweden, which allocated 2.1% of GDP to defense last year, also supports increased spending, with Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard stressing that European countries must shoulder more defense costs. 

Meanwhile, France faces political uncertainty that could hinder its efforts to increase defense spending, while the U.K. has not outlined a specific timeline for meeting its 2.5% defense target by 2030. The Czech Republic recently announced it reached the 2% target for the first time, with Prime Minister Petr Fiala suggesting that 3% could be feasible in the coming years.

Italy plans to allocate 1.57% of its GDP to defense in 2025 and aims to reach 2% by 2028, far below Trump’s wishes. 

NATO members’ defence expenditure as share of GDP

Source: NATO, 2024

“Europe Must Take Responsibility for Its Own Security”

Dr. Ingo Piepers began the interview by criticizing Europe’s dependence on the United States for security and leadership. “It is high time for Europe to take responsibility and ensure its own security,” he said, describing this reliance as “increasingly unhealthy” and urging greater European autonomy.

Dr. Piepers pointed to a widening values gap between the U.S. and Europe, particularly under leadership such as Donald Trump’s. “The claim on Greenland is a prime example,” he noted, stressing the importance of Europe staying true to its principles and avoiding becoming “an instrument of a United States that disregards fundamental rights and agreements whenever it suits them.”

He also emphasized that Europe should have adopted a more critical and independent stance, particularly its support for Israel in Gaza and the occupied territories. “Europe must take responsibility for its own actions and ensure that the values it claims to represent are upheld in practice, rather than merely paying lip service to them,” Dr. Piepers added.

“Ambitious and Unrealistic”

Asked about Donald Trump’s suggestion that NATO countries meet or exceed 5% of GDP in defense spending, Dr. Piepers dismissed the proposal as “ambitious and, in many ways, unrealistic.” While acknowledging that European NATO members must take their defense responsibilities more seriously, he described the 5% target as “arbitrary and unsubstantiated.”

“It is essential to first conduct a comprehensive threat assessment to determine the actual requirements for European security. From this analysis, NATO’s strategy—including a stronger European pillar—must be adapted accordingly. Only then can realistic and justifiable spending goals be established,” he explained.

He argued that Europe’s focus should be on building a highly capable, largely autonomous European defense force within NATO. “Europe’s priority should be the development of a highly capable, largely autonomous European defense force within NATO,” he emphasized. This includes fostering interoperability, joint capabilities, and readiness rather than fragmenting investments at the national level.

Dr. Piepers pointed to Russia’s failure to capture Kyiv after nearly three years of war as a reminder of the importance of measured, strategic investments. “Strategic and measured investments are far more critical than a blanket 5% target,” he concluded.

“Trump’s Presidency Could Accelerate Europe’s Strategic Autonomy”

Dr. Ingo Piepers believes that the second term for Donald Trump would significantly push Europe toward pursuing strategic autonomy. “Trump’s transactional approach to alliances underscores the need for Europe to become more self-reliant,” he said, highlighting the urgency for Europe to rethink its dependence on U.S. leadership.

“A credible and cohesive defense strategy that addresses both conventional and hybrid threats is essential,” he explained. He noted that Europe must take on greater responsibility and assert its influence on the global stage. “Trump’s presidency should be seen as a catalyst for Europe to transition from dependence on U.S. leadership to a position of greater responsibility and influence within the international system” Dr. Piepers stated.

“A Roadmap for Europe’s Global Influence”

Dr. Ingo Piepers laid out actionable steps for the EU to enhance its global influence and reduce dependency on the United States:

Unify Foreign Policy

“The EU must strengthen its ability to act decisively on the global stage by improving coordination among member states.” 

Address Internal Divisions

“Political and economic stability within Europe is essential for projecting power externally. Addressing budgetary crises, leadership transitions, and divisions among member states will enhance Europe’s ability to act cohesively.”

Develop Independent Defense Capabilities

“Europe must prioritize the development of a unified defense force that can operate independently of U.S. support. This includes investing in critical infrastructure, modernizing equipment, and enhancing the readiness of European forces.”

Build Strategic Alliances

“The EU should deepen its relationships with like-minded nations and regional organizations, such as ASEAN and the African Union. Diversifying partnerships will reduce dependency on the United States and expand Europe’s global influence.”

Invest in Innovation

“By leading in areas such as renewable energy, artificial intelligence, and defense technologies, Europe can position itself as a global leader in innovation. This will also enhance its economic and security resilience.”

Dr. Piepers concluded, “Europe needs to seize this moment to take responsibility and redefine its role in the world. Only by acting decisively can it safeguard its interests in an increasingly complex global landscape.”