Europe
Trump wants Europe increase defence spending: What does it mean for Europe?
Calls from President Trump and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte for increased European defense spending have ignited a debate among European leaders. Dr. Ingo Piepers, founder of Global4Cast, told Harici how this could reshape Europe’s path toward strategic autonomy.
Ahmetcan Uzlaşık, Brussels
On January 7, Donald Trump stated that NATO members should spend 5% of their gross domestic product (GDP) on defence, marking a solid increase from the current 2% target. NATO Chief Mark Rutte also expressed his approval of Donald Trump’s return to the White House, by stating that his presidency would “turbo-charge defense spending and production” within the alliance.
NATO projected that 23 of its 32 member nations achieved the target of allocating 2% of their GDP to defense spending in 2024. However, no member, including the United States, currently dedicates as much as 5% of GDP to defense. Among the alliance, Poland leads with defense spending equivalent to 4.12% of its GDP, followed by Estonia at 3.43% and the United States at 3.38%, while Türkiye spends 2.09% of its GDP.
Eight of NATO’s 32 member countries fail to meet the alliance’s recommended defense spending target of 2% of GDP. Among them are Spain (1.28%), Slovenia (1.29%), Luxembourg (1.29%), and Belgium (1.30%), with slightly higher figures for Canada (1.37%), Italy (1.49%), Portugal (1.55%), and Croatia (1.81%).
Poland: The biggest spender
Poland’s Defence Minister has expressed support for Donald Trump’s call for NATO members to allocate 5% of their GDP to defense. He emphasized on January 12 that Poland “can be the transatlantic link between this challenge set by President Trump and its implementation in Europe.” As NATO’s largest relative spender, Poland currently dedicates 4.12% of its GDP to defense in 2024, with plans to increase this to 4.7% in 2025. Notably, Poland has recently taken over the EU Council presidency, with a strong focus on defense and security.
European Countries Grapple with NATO’s 5% Defense Spending Target
European countries are adopting varying stances on the ambitious 5% target proposed by Trump. While Germany has met NATO’s 2% defense spending target for 2024, it falls short of Trump’s demand for a 5% increase. Despite a significant boost in military spending since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Germany is facing budgetary constraints that complicate future funding, with a projected €16 billion budget gap for 2025.
In contrast, Baltic nations approach the issue more urgently. Lithuania has taken a bold step, committing to raise its defense spending to between 5-6% of GDP by 2026. Similarly, Estonia plans to spend 3.7% of its GDP on defense.
Sweden, which allocated 2.1% of GDP to defense last year, also supports increased spending, with Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard stressing that European countries must shoulder more defense costs.
Meanwhile, France faces political uncertainty that could hinder its efforts to increase defense spending, while the U.K. has not outlined a specific timeline for meeting its 2.5% defense target by 2030. The Czech Republic recently announced it reached the 2% target for the first time, with Prime Minister Petr Fiala suggesting that 3% could be feasible in the coming years.
Italy plans to allocate 1.57% of its GDP to defense in 2025 and aims to reach 2% by 2028, far below Trump’s wishes.
NATO members’ defence expenditure as share of GDP

Source: NATO, 2024
“Europe Must Take Responsibility for Its Own Security”
Dr. Ingo Piepers began the interview by criticizing Europe’s dependence on the United States for security and leadership. “It is high time for Europe to take responsibility and ensure its own security,” he said, describing this reliance as “increasingly unhealthy” and urging greater European autonomy.
Dr. Piepers pointed to a widening values gap between the U.S. and Europe, particularly under leadership such as Donald Trump’s. “The claim on Greenland is a prime example,” he noted, stressing the importance of Europe staying true to its principles and avoiding becoming “an instrument of a United States that disregards fundamental rights and agreements whenever it suits them.”
He also emphasized that Europe should have adopted a more critical and independent stance, particularly its support for Israel in Gaza and the occupied territories. “Europe must take responsibility for its own actions and ensure that the values it claims to represent are upheld in practice, rather than merely paying lip service to them,” Dr. Piepers added.
“Ambitious and Unrealistic”
Asked about Donald Trump’s suggestion that NATO countries meet or exceed 5% of GDP in defense spending, Dr. Piepers dismissed the proposal as “ambitious and, in many ways, unrealistic.” While acknowledging that European NATO members must take their defense responsibilities more seriously, he described the 5% target as “arbitrary and unsubstantiated.”
“It is essential to first conduct a comprehensive threat assessment to determine the actual requirements for European security. From this analysis, NATO’s strategy—including a stronger European pillar—must be adapted accordingly. Only then can realistic and justifiable spending goals be established,” he explained.
He argued that Europe’s focus should be on building a highly capable, largely autonomous European defense force within NATO. “Europe’s priority should be the development of a highly capable, largely autonomous European defense force within NATO,” he emphasized. This includes fostering interoperability, joint capabilities, and readiness rather than fragmenting investments at the national level.
Dr. Piepers pointed to Russia’s failure to capture Kyiv after nearly three years of war as a reminder of the importance of measured, strategic investments. “Strategic and measured investments are far more critical than a blanket 5% target,” he concluded.
“Trump’s Presidency Could Accelerate Europe’s Strategic Autonomy”
Dr. Ingo Piepers believes that the second term for Donald Trump would significantly push Europe toward pursuing strategic autonomy. “Trump’s transactional approach to alliances underscores the need for Europe to become more self-reliant,” he said, highlighting the urgency for Europe to rethink its dependence on U.S. leadership.
“A credible and cohesive defense strategy that addresses both conventional and hybrid threats is essential,” he explained. He noted that Europe must take on greater responsibility and assert its influence on the global stage. “Trump’s presidency should be seen as a catalyst for Europe to transition from dependence on U.S. leadership to a position of greater responsibility and influence within the international system” Dr. Piepers stated.
“A Roadmap for Europe’s Global Influence”
Dr. Ingo Piepers laid out actionable steps for the EU to enhance its global influence and reduce dependency on the United States:
Unify Foreign Policy
“The EU must strengthen its ability to act decisively on the global stage by improving coordination among member states.”
Address Internal Divisions
“Political and economic stability within Europe is essential for projecting power externally. Addressing budgetary crises, leadership transitions, and divisions among member states will enhance Europe’s ability to act cohesively.”
Develop Independent Defense Capabilities
“Europe must prioritize the development of a unified defense force that can operate independently of U.S. support. This includes investing in critical infrastructure, modernizing equipment, and enhancing the readiness of European forces.”
Build Strategic Alliances
“The EU should deepen its relationships with like-minded nations and regional organizations, such as ASEAN and the African Union. Diversifying partnerships will reduce dependency on the United States and expand Europe’s global influence.”
Invest in Innovation
“By leading in areas such as renewable energy, artificial intelligence, and defense technologies, Europe can position itself as a global leader in innovation. This will also enhance its economic and security resilience.”
Dr. Piepers concluded, “Europe needs to seize this moment to take responsibility and redefine its role in the world. Only by acting decisively can it safeguard its interests in an increasingly complex global landscape.”
Europe
Fico accuses Merz of blackmail over threat to veto EU budget
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has hit back after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz threatened to veto the EU budget unless funding for Ukraine is secured.
Merz said he would block the EU’s seven-year budget if no agreement is reached on financial assistance for Ukraine.
The chancellor’s intervention has angered Central European leaders who are net beneficiaries of EU funds but do not want to take part in the next round of funding to support Ukraine’s war effort.
“What the chancellor is doing is typical blackmail, and I will not bow to it,” Fico told reporters in Bratislava.
Fico spoke alongside his Czech counterpart, Andrej Babiš, whose government has refused to participate in a future loan to Ukraine.
“I do not know why he said this,” Babiš said, referring to Merz’s stance.
Merz wants EU leaders to discuss Ukraine’s financing needs at a summit in Dublin on Friday.
In a letter to European Council President António Costa, who will chair the meeting, obtained by The Guardian, Merz wrote:
“We must maintain our support for Ukraine in its struggle to defend itself. This is our shared vital interest. Yet bilateral aid provided to Ukraine is distributed unevenly, with the burden shouldered mostly by only a few member states.”
The EU agreed last year to provide a €90 billion loan to Ukraine, intended to cover two-thirds of its military and civilian spending for 2026 and 2027.
Since then, however, Russia’s relentless bombardment has placed a heavier financial burden on Kyiv, prompting President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to ask for €70 billion to plug the budget deficit.
The EU has endorsed Zelenskyy’s figures and pledged to find €45 billion. Ukraine’s other allies, such as Britain and Canada, are expected to cover the rest.
Last year, Merz launched an initiative to tap €210 billion in frozen Russian state assets held in the EU, but the plan fell through due to opposition led by Belgium, which holds most of the funds in Brussels.
The €90 billion loan was the backup plan. Having opted out of that loan, Hungary, Slovakia, and Czechia indicated that they would not take part in the next round either.
Bulgaria joined these three member states following the election of Prime Minister Rumen Radev last April.
The question of funding for Ukraine is now spilling over into the fraught negotiations on the 2028-34 EU budget.
Germany, the largest net contributor, wants substantial cuts to the proposed budget and opposes the EU providing generous funding to member states that refuse to contribute to Ukraine’s financial needs.
Merz states in his letter that a “collective commitment without exceptions” is a “fundamental prerequisite” for closing Ukraine’s financing gap and for “discussing other matters, particularly those with financial implications.”
He also notes that, in the context of the EU’s next seven-year budget, known as the Multiannual Financial Framework, all member states must contribute to a “robust” financial perspective for Ukraine from 2028 onwards.
A German government official said:
“For the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) to be successfully concluded, it is vital that all EU member states provide financial support to Ukraine.”
Berlin is also aiming to shift decision-making on funding for Ukraine from unanimity to qualified majority voting, in an effort to prevent a single government from blocking EU decisions.
The letter reflects mounting frustration among the EU’s northern member states, Ukraine’s most generous backers, over lower contributions from other EU countries in Central and Southern Europe.
The task of brokering an agreement on the budget falls to Costa, the former Portuguese prime minister.
Costa wants a deal by the end of the year, ahead of elections in France, Poland, and Italy in 2027 that could complicate the process.
A spokesperson for Costa confirmed receipt of the letter without elaborating on details. “President Costa will dedicate time to the Ukraine issue at the informal European Council meeting in Dublin this week,” the spokesperson said, adding that funding for Ukraine would be addressed at a dedicated summit on the EU budget scheduled for 26-27 November.
Europe
EU expects next Israeli government to adopt less aggressive posture
The EU expects the next Israeli government to mend its “difficult relationship” with Brussels and adopt a more constructive approach toward Gaza and illegal settlements.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog tasked Gadi Eisenkot, the leader of the anti-Netanyahu bloc, on Sunday with forming a government.
Eisenkot stated that the country faces a “catastrophic diplomatic crisis” as traditional allies begin to reassess their relations with Israel.
Speaking to Rapporteur, several European diplomats stationed in Tel Aviv said they expect ties to get back on track.
“Whatever government comes in, we can try to revitalize relations because Israel is clearly a very important partner,” one European diplomat said, adding that Brussels expects the next administration to be “less aggressive”.
The diplomat noted that relations with Europe are currently “not very good”.
Israel cut off communication with Kaja Kallas, the EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, after Rapporteur revealed in June that she had compared Israel to apartheid-era South Africa during a visit to Mexico.
The diplomat stated that this decision, taken ahead of elections, was political in nature. A second European diplomat based in Brussels explained that the announcement came only a few days before an official visit by Dubravka Šuica, the European commissioner for the Mediterranean.
“This could have been interpreted as a tactic to divide Europe, but Israel had asked Kallas to deny the report; she did not do so,” the second diplomat said.
Brussels has repeatedly voiced its frustration with Israel over the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and the expansion of West Bank settlements.
However, EU governments blocked almost all sanctions proposed by the European Commission.
A third diplomat said opposition parties would “almost certainly take the issue more seriously” when it comes to tackling violence by West Bank settlers:
“We see Palestinians being expelled from their homes and new illegal settlements being built in the West Bank. There is a reluctance on the part of the current government to address this issue, which causes problems in our relations.”
The new government is expected to ease pressure on Palestinians and halt construction of the E1 settlement project, a controversial plan to build settler housing in the West Bank east of Jerusalem.
“They will probably try to deal with the problem of extremist settlers in the West Bank,” the diplomat added.
On Gaza, the diplomat described the situation as “a complete nightmare”, with two million Palestinians crowded into an area that accounts for roughly 35% of the territory.
“There are not enough tents for the winter, and not enough vaccines are reaching the area despite an increase in diseases,” the diplomat said.
The European official argued that Donald Trump’s peace plan met all the conditions for Europe. Although the EU had much to offer, neither the US nor Israel appeared interested in EU involvement in the process.
“We are currently training Palestinian police in the West Bank, and if permitted, we could do the same in Gaza,” the diplomat said.
The diplomat disclosed that Israel had agreed with Šuica that Europe would finance two projects aimed at improving sewage and water infrastructure in Gaza, continuing:
“However, none of these projects has started yet because there is a serious problem with dual-use goods. Getting materials into Gaza is very difficult because the Israelis say they could be misused if they fall into the wrong hands of Hamas.”
Israel insists that Hamas must be disarmed before subsequent phases of Trump’s plan can proceed.
With disarmament unlikely to happen in the near term, the EU argues that certain measures can be carried out in parallel.
“We can begin rebuilding sanitation systems in Gaza. We can start building desalination plants. We can begin providing energy and water to Gaza,” one diplomat said.
While Brussels hopes for progress on Gaza and the West Bank, it maintains that expectations regarding the establishment of a Palestinian state need to be “managed”.
The EU continues to advocate a two-state solution, yet most leading Jewish parties oppose the creation of a Palestinian state.
The diplomat noted that the next Israeli government will likely have “a very slim majority and not much room for manoeuvre”.
There is also a “major misunderstanding” between the EU and Israel that must be addressed. According to the diplomat, Europeans fail to recognize the “psychological impact” of 7 October on Israelis.
“This event changed the country and made the two-state solution even more distant than before,” the diplomat said.
In return, some Israeli politicians believe Europe has betrayed Israel despite what they view as a fight against “Islamist terrorism”.
“Their argument is that European politicians are somewhat afraid of the Muslim population in Europe,” the European diplomat said.
Europe strongly opposes Iran and the possibility of Tehran acquiring nuclear weapons, imposing sanctions in response.
However, the diplomat argued that the EU would not participate in a war because it lacks a common army:
“We are a diplomatic and economic power, which is why we resort to sanctions and diplomacy. The expectation that we would take part in a military operation is unrealistic.”
Europe
Germany threatens EU budget veto over long-term Ukraine aid
Germany has threatened to veto the European Union’s joint budget for the 2028-2034 period, which is currently under negotiation, unless every member state commits to providing financial support to Ukraine in 2027 and subsequent years, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned.
According to a report by the Financial Times (FT), Chancellor Merz set out Berlin’s condition for the budget talks in a letter addressed to European Council President António Costa.
In his letter, Merz wrote: “A collective commitment that every single one of us, without exception, will make a fair contribution to closing Ukraine’s budget deficit is an indispensable prerequisite for resolving this budget issue and, in particular, for addressing subsequent matters that carry financial implications.”
The German Chancellor stressed that a formula backed by all member states must be established to provide Ukraine with a reliable, multi-year financial perspective starting from 2028.
Merz also insisted that any agreed solution must cover the interest payments on debts incurred to finance the assistance provided to Kyiv.
Conversely, several countries within the bloc have cut financial aid to Ukraine, and the number of capitals adopting this stance is projected to rise next year.
In December 2025, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic approved the EU’s 90 billion euro loan package for Kyiv only on the condition that they would not contribute to its costs themselves.
Alongside these three countries, Bulgaria has also stated that it does not plan to participate in subsequent financial assistance packages for Ukraine.
In France, far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who could potentially win the presidential election scheduled for spring 2027, recently told the FT that Paris has run out of funds.
Le Pen assessed: “The honest approach is to tell Mr Zelensky clearly, and even warn him: ‘Look, we cannot do more. We have already allocated the 90 billion euro EU loan, in which France’s share amounts to 18 billion euros. 18 billion euros is genuinely a huge amount of money.'”
The EU’s 90 billion euro loan, covering the 2026-2027 period, aims to meet two-thirds of Ukraine’s financing requirements.
Brussels expects the remaining 45 billion euros to be covered by other partners, including Canada, the UK, Norway, Japan, South Korea, and Australia.
Germany remains the largest net contributor to the EU budget.
In contrast, the four Eastern European countries seeking to avoid financing Ukraine rank among the largest net beneficiaries of the bloc’s budget.
Leveraging this balance, Chancellor Merz aims to use his influence in the EU budget negotiations to secure uninterrupted support for Kyiv in 2027 and the years beyond.
According to the FT, Berlin is also demanding that future aid packages be decided by qualified majority voting rather than unanimity, which is required under the current system.
A German government spokesperson told the newspaper:
“The issue of Ukraine’s financial needs must be resolved within the framework of the next EU budget. Financial support for Ukraine from all EU members is decisive for the successful conclusion of the budget talks.”
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