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Trump wants Europe increase defence spending: What does it mean for Europe?

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Calls from President Trump and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte for increased European defense spending have ignited a debate among European leaders. Dr. Ingo Piepers, founder of Global4Cast, told Harici how this could reshape Europe’s path toward strategic autonomy.

Ahmetcan Uzlaşık, Brussels

On January 7, Donald Trump stated that NATO members should spend 5% of their gross domestic product (GDP) on defence, marking a solid increase from the current 2% target. NATO Chief Mark Rutte also expressed his approval of Donald Trump’s return to the White House, by stating that his presidency would “turbo-charge defense spending and production” within the alliance.

NATO projected that 23 of its 32 member nations achieved the target of allocating 2% of their GDP to defense spending in 2024. However, no member, including the United States, currently dedicates as much as 5% of GDP to defense. Among the alliance, Poland leads with defense spending equivalent to 4.12% of its GDP, followed by Estonia at 3.43% and the United States at 3.38%, while Türkiye spends 2.09% of its GDP.

Eight of NATO’s 32 member countries fail to meet the alliance’s recommended defense spending target of 2% of GDP. Among them are Spain (1.28%), Slovenia (1.29%), Luxembourg (1.29%), and Belgium (1.30%), with slightly higher figures for Canada (1.37%), Italy (1.49%), Portugal (1.55%), and Croatia (1.81%).

Poland: The biggest spender

Poland’s Defence Minister has expressed support for Donald Trump’s call for NATO members to allocate 5% of their GDP to defense. He emphasized on January 12 that Poland “can be the transatlantic link between this challenge set by President Trump and its implementation in Europe.” As NATO’s largest relative spender, Poland currently dedicates 4.12% of its GDP to defense in 2024, with plans to increase this to 4.7% in 2025. Notably, Poland has recently taken over the EU Council presidency, with a strong focus on defense and security.

European Countries Grapple with NATO’s 5% Defense Spending Target

European countries are adopting varying stances on the ambitious 5% target proposed by Trump. While Germany has met NATO’s 2% defense spending target for 2024, it falls short of Trump’s demand for a 5% increase. Despite a significant boost in military spending since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Germany is facing budgetary constraints that complicate future funding, with a projected €16 billion budget gap for 2025.

In contrast, Baltic nations approach the issue more urgently. Lithuania has taken a bold step, committing to raise its defense spending to between 5-6% of GDP by 2026. Similarly, Estonia plans to spend 3.7% of its GDP on defense.

Sweden, which allocated 2.1% of GDP to defense last year, also supports increased spending, with Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard stressing that European countries must shoulder more defense costs. 

Meanwhile, France faces political uncertainty that could hinder its efforts to increase defense spending, while the U.K. has not outlined a specific timeline for meeting its 2.5% defense target by 2030. The Czech Republic recently announced it reached the 2% target for the first time, with Prime Minister Petr Fiala suggesting that 3% could be feasible in the coming years.

Italy plans to allocate 1.57% of its GDP to defense in 2025 and aims to reach 2% by 2028, far below Trump’s wishes. 

NATO members’ defence expenditure as share of GDP

Source: NATO, 2024

“Europe Must Take Responsibility for Its Own Security”

Dr. Ingo Piepers began the interview by criticizing Europe’s dependence on the United States for security and leadership. “It is high time for Europe to take responsibility and ensure its own security,” he said, describing this reliance as “increasingly unhealthy” and urging greater European autonomy.

Dr. Piepers pointed to a widening values gap between the U.S. and Europe, particularly under leadership such as Donald Trump’s. “The claim on Greenland is a prime example,” he noted, stressing the importance of Europe staying true to its principles and avoiding becoming “an instrument of a United States that disregards fundamental rights and agreements whenever it suits them.”

He also emphasized that Europe should have adopted a more critical and independent stance, particularly its support for Israel in Gaza and the occupied territories. “Europe must take responsibility for its own actions and ensure that the values it claims to represent are upheld in practice, rather than merely paying lip service to them,” Dr. Piepers added.

“Ambitious and Unrealistic”

Asked about Donald Trump’s suggestion that NATO countries meet or exceed 5% of GDP in defense spending, Dr. Piepers dismissed the proposal as “ambitious and, in many ways, unrealistic.” While acknowledging that European NATO members must take their defense responsibilities more seriously, he described the 5% target as “arbitrary and unsubstantiated.”

“It is essential to first conduct a comprehensive threat assessment to determine the actual requirements for European security. From this analysis, NATO’s strategy—including a stronger European pillar—must be adapted accordingly. Only then can realistic and justifiable spending goals be established,” he explained.

He argued that Europe’s focus should be on building a highly capable, largely autonomous European defense force within NATO. “Europe’s priority should be the development of a highly capable, largely autonomous European defense force within NATO,” he emphasized. This includes fostering interoperability, joint capabilities, and readiness rather than fragmenting investments at the national level.

Dr. Piepers pointed to Russia’s failure to capture Kyiv after nearly three years of war as a reminder of the importance of measured, strategic investments. “Strategic and measured investments are far more critical than a blanket 5% target,” he concluded.

“Trump’s Presidency Could Accelerate Europe’s Strategic Autonomy”

Dr. Ingo Piepers believes that the second term for Donald Trump would significantly push Europe toward pursuing strategic autonomy. “Trump’s transactional approach to alliances underscores the need for Europe to become more self-reliant,” he said, highlighting the urgency for Europe to rethink its dependence on U.S. leadership.

“A credible and cohesive defense strategy that addresses both conventional and hybrid threats is essential,” he explained. He noted that Europe must take on greater responsibility and assert its influence on the global stage. “Trump’s presidency should be seen as a catalyst for Europe to transition from dependence on U.S. leadership to a position of greater responsibility and influence within the international system” Dr. Piepers stated.

“A Roadmap for Europe’s Global Influence”

Dr. Ingo Piepers laid out actionable steps for the EU to enhance its global influence and reduce dependency on the United States:

Unify Foreign Policy

The EU must strengthen its ability to act decisively on the global stage by improving coordination among member states.” 

Address Internal Divisions

Political and economic stability within Europe is essential for projecting power externally. Addressing budgetary crises, leadership transitions, and divisions among member states will enhance Europe’s ability to act cohesively.”

Develop Independent Defense Capabilities

Europe must prioritize the development of a unified defense force that can operate independently of U.S. support. This includes investing in critical infrastructure, modernizing equipment, and enhancing the readiness of European forces.”

Build Strategic Alliances

The EU should deepen its relationships with like-minded nations and regional organizations, such as ASEAN and the African Union. Diversifying partnerships will reduce dependency on the United States and expand Europe’s global influence.”

Invest in Innovation

“By leading in areas such as renewable energy, artificial intelligence, and defense technologies, Europe can position itself as a global leader in innovation. This will also enhance its economic and security resilience.”

Dr. Piepers concluded, “Europe needs to seize this moment to take responsibility and redefine its role in the world. Only by acting decisively can it safeguard its interests in an increasingly complex global landscape.”

Europe

China’s critical mineral restrictions challenge EU defence expansion plans

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The European Union’s plans to expand its defence capabilities are being hindered by China’s export controls and sales restrictions on critical raw materials.

In response, EU leaders are urging member states to accelerate efforts to diversify supply chains.

According to Nikkei Asia, the European Commission announced last week that it would propose new legislation requiring companies across the bloc to broaden their supplier base in an effort to address economic imbalances, although it did not explicitly name China.

The war in Ukraine and growing uncertainty over Washington’s security guarantees have pushed European governments to increase military spending and defence production.

At the same time, according to a report published in May by Joris Teer, a policy analyst at the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), China accounts for at least 70% of global mining or refining activity in 17 of the 34 materials classified as critical by the EU. Eight of those 34 materials are currently subject to Chinese export controls.

“China is undermining Europe’s rearmament efforts,” Teer wrote. “Simply by activating this tool, China has already increased its leverage and demonstrated both the capability and willingness to restrict supply whenever it chooses.”

The Aerospace, Security and Defence Industries Association of Europe also warned that geopolitical developments and intensifying global competition for critical raw materials are further underscoring the need to strengthen European supply chains.

The organisation represents more than 4,000 companies, including Britain’s BAE Systems, France’s Thales and Germany’s Rheinmetall.

European defence manufacturers are pursuing a range of strategies, including vertical integration, recycling, diversification and stockpiling.

Rheinmetall told Nikkei Asia that it has “no dependencies” and is “well prepared” regarding critical minerals.

A company spokesperson said: “Rheinmetall has stockpiled key raw materials sufficient for several years. We have also implemented IT systems that allow us to centrally monitor and precisely manage raw material consumption across the entire group.”

Analysts, however, caution that stockpiling alone will not be sufficient. Maria Shagina, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said: “Stockpiling serves as an important buffer against sudden disruptions, but on its own it is unlikely to mitigate structural damage over the long term.”

Shagina added that replacing the volume and diversity of critical minerals controlled by Beijing with alternative sources would take years.

In 2024, the EU enacted the European Critical Raw Materials Act, aimed at rebuilding domestic supply chains for such minerals.

The legislation sets 2030 targets for domestic extraction, processing and recycling while limiting dependence on any single third-country supplier to 65%.

A €3 billion ($3.5 billion) fund was established last year to accelerate strategic projects.

Nevertheless, the European Court of Auditors has noted that the 2030 targets are not legally binding and that the EU remains far from achieving them.

Industry groups argue that policy inconsistencies could further slow progress.

The Cobalt Institute, which represents a sector vital to jet engines, advanced batteries and defence alloys, warned that proposed EU chemicals regulations risk undermining the industry.

“Europe has one foot in and one foot out,” said Michael Blakeney, head of government and public affairs at the London-based institute. “It says the right things, but its actions are inconsistent.”

Europe’s efforts are unfolding alongside a more aggressive US strategy to secure critical mineral supply chains.

Shagina said:

“The US is investing more capital to secure and expand capacity, taking greater financial risks and, in some cases, acquiring equity stakes. Europe, by contrast, is generally more cautious, which places it at a relative disadvantage in the competition for critical minerals.”

In April, the EU signed an agreement with the United States to coordinate supplies of critical minerals. Although some member states initially resisted over concerns that the deal could weaken the bloc’s strategic autonomy, they authorised the Commission in early June to join the US-led “Pax Silica” initiative, which coordinates investment and export-control policies.

Teer urged Europe to use ongoing US-EU-Japan negotiations as the nucleus of a broader coalition aimed at making critical mineral production outside China financially viable through state support, minimum-price mechanisms and supply rules.

“Particularly important are countries that either produce raw materials or possess significant mineral deposits, such as Malaysia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Brazil and Indonesia, as well as countries like India with large pools of skilled labour,” he said.

Teer also argued that the EU should activate its Anti-Coercion Instrument, which allows the bloc to impose tariffs and restrictions in response to economic pressure on countries outside the union, in order to deter China from introducing further restrictions.

A European Commission spokesperson said the bloc had “long been aware of the risks associated with the EU’s dependence on critical raw materials.”

“The objective is clear: to anticipate disruptions early and reduce the EU’s vulnerabilities while strengthening our industrial and defence capacities,” the spokesperson said.

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Four European countries move to make citizenship harder to obtain

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European countries are increasingly tightening their citizenship rules. Most recently, the Norwegian government has drafted legislation that would raise the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from three years to seven.

The proposed amendments to the citizenship law were presented by the Ministry of Labour and Social Inclusion.

Under the draft legislation, stateless individuals born in Norway, as well as those who arrived in the country as children, would be required to reside in Norway for at least five years before becoming eligible for citizenship.

The government also plans to increase residency requirements for foreign nationals who are married to or cohabiting with Norwegian citizens.

Language requirements are set to become more demanding as well. The proposal would raise the required level of spoken Norwegian proficiency from A2 to B1. The new rules would apply to applicants aged between 18 and 67.

Commenting on the changes, Minister of Labour and Social Inclusion Kjersti Stenseng said: “Obtaining and holding Norwegian citizenship should be a privilege.”

The government argues that simplifying administrative procedures while simultaneously tightening eligibility criteria will help reduce the country’s large backlog of pending applications and shorten processing times.

Norway is the latest European country to announce revisions to its citizenship rules.

In Finland, the minimum residency requirement for citizenship was increased from five years to eight years on October 1, 2024.

The country also plans to introduce a mandatory citizenship test for applicants aged between 18 and 64 from the beginning of 2027.

Finnish Interior Minister Mari Rantanen said: “The introduction of a citizenship test is the final component of a comprehensive reform aimed at making citizenship requirements more stringent.”

Sweden has also approved a similar reform. Beginning in June 2026, the standard residency requirement for citizenship will increase from five years to eight years. Authorities are also introducing a financial self-sufficiency requirement for applicants and expanding the scope of security screenings.

Explaining the rationale behind the changes, Migration Minister Johan Forssell said: “It was possible to become a citizen after living in the country for five years without knowing a single word of Swedish, learning anything about Swedish society, or even having one’s own source of income.”

The most far-reaching changes have been implemented in Portugal. Portuguese President Antonio Jose Seguro has signed legislation raising the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from five years to 10 years.

For citizens of the European Union and the Community of Portuguese Language Countries, the requirement has been set at seven years.

The residency period will now be calculated from the date a residence permit is granted rather than from the date a citizenship application is submitted. The new rules will also affect the children of immigrants.

Previously, children could obtain citizenship one year after birth if their parents held residence permits. Under the new rules, at least one parent must have legally resided in the country for a minimum of five years.

The law also introduces a mandatory examination covering Portuguese history, culture, values and social structures.

Migration policies are tightening across the European Union as well. On June 17, the European Parliament approved legislation allowing irregular migrants whose asylum applications have been rejected but who cannot be returned to their countries of origin to be deported to third countries.

The new EU rules permit the establishment of migrant detention centres outside the bloc’s borders. African countries are reportedly among the options being discussed for such facilities.

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SpaceX warns EU satellite spectrum plan could disrupt connectivity in Ukraine

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SpaceX has sharply criticised a European Union plan to restrict access to satellite spectrum, arguing that the proposal risks degrading connectivity in Ukraine and disrupting emergency communications services.

In a document shared with European officials and reviewed by the Financial Times, SpaceX warned:

“This proposal significantly increases the likelihood that Europeans will be deprived of direct-to-device satellite services, or that new European operations will create global interference issues, including for emergency services such as those operating in Ukraine.”

In a proposal unveiled in May, the EU recommended reserving part of the spectrum band used for direct satellite-to-smartphone connectivity for European operators, thereby limiting the frequencies available to US and Chinese providers.

The 2 GHz frequency band in question is currently used by two US companies, Viasat and EchoStar.

SpaceX argued that the EU plan prioritises “an operator’s country of establishment over economic, technical and regulatory realities.”

When the proposal was announced, EU technology chief Henna Virkkunen defended the move, saying the bloc wanted to “increase European capacity in this sector.” She added that other parts of the frequency band would remain open to international operators, arguing that prioritising European providers was justified.

Other participants involved in discussions over the proposal said some EU officials were specifically seeking to limit Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite network.

Europe’s initiative follows a warning from Washington. In March, the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) cautioned that it could take retaliatory measures if the EU chose to favour European satellite operators over alternatives such as Starlink.

At the time, FCC Chairman Brendan Carr told the Financial Times: “Some of the discussions in Europe regarding satellite sovereignty concern us. If Europe decides to move down that path, then, as you know, we will have to consider reciprocal measures.”

The European Commission’s proposal has not yet entered formal negotiations with EU member states or the European Parliament.

A source close to SpaceX said the company remained hopeful of influencing the outcome of the process, given concerns raised by both businesses and several European governments.

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