The prime ministers of India and Canada could reap short-term political benefits from the unprecedented expulsion of top diplomats from each country, analysts told Reuters.
Canada expelled six Indian diplomats on Monday, linking them to the killing of a Sikh separatist leader and alleging a broader effort to target Indian dissidents in Canada. India retaliated by expelling six Canadian diplomats.
While this tit-for-tat move has pushed bilateral relations to a new low, Narendra Modi and Justin Trudeau are unlikely to dwell too much on it. Both leaders are in their third terms and face significant political challenges.
Analysts say the move could bolster Modi’s hawkish image on national security.
“I think people will see the Indian government standing up to intimidation and coercion by a developed country,” said Harsh Vardhan Shringla, India’s former foreign secretary. “People will strongly support Prime Minister Modi and the government.”
Modi suffered a setback in the June elections when his Bharatiya Janata Party unexpectedly lost its majority. Weakened, Modi had to rely on regional allies to form a coalition government.
Canada is home to the largest Sikh population outside of India, making up about 2% of the country’s population. In recent years, demonstrations for a separate Sikh homeland have angered the Indian government, which regularly accuses Canada of harboring separatists.
Harsh Pant, head of foreign policy at the New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation think-tank, said the more Trudeau reached out to India, the better it would be for Modi.
“(Trudeau) is seen as the leader of a country that defends the territorial integrity and sovereignty of a nation,” Pant told Reuters. “This, in a way, sums up why Modi’s popularity will not wane.”
For Trudeau, whose Liberal Party is trailing in the polls ahead of a national election due in October 2025, the incident has shifted attention from internal party struggles, including alleged efforts by disgruntled lawmakers to force him to step down.
“We will have time to talk about the intrigues within the party at another time,” Trudeau told reporters on Sunday. “Right now, this government and all parliamentarians need to focus on defending Canada’s sovereignty, standing up to interference, and supporting Canadians during this difficult moment.”
Leaders of Canada’s left-wing opposition parties, whose support Trudeau needs to maintain his minority government, have said they support the deportations.
However, Cristine de Clercy, a professor of politics at Trent University in Peterborough, said any boost for Trudeau is likely to be short-lived.
“Yes, we can say he will grab the headlines in the short term, but the list of domestic issues he has to deal with is much longer and more complex than this single event in a distant country,” she said.
The politically influential Sikh community has supported the Liberals and other parties in recent years. At least one leader said he welcomed the deportations but did not expect the diplomatic row to significantly affect domestic politics.
“It shows the government is holding India accountable, which is what they are supposed to do,” said Moninder Singh, spokesman for the B.C. Gurdwaras Council, a non-profit organization representing Sikh institutions in the province.
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