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Democrats take an 8-point lead over Republicans ahead of midterm elections, new poll finds

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A new national poll published by NBC News shows that a large portion of voters believe President Donald Trump has failed to deliver on his promises, giving Democrats an early advantage in the race for next year’s congressional elections.

Approximately two-thirds of registered voters participating in the poll stated that the Trump administration has not met expectations on the economy and cost of living, while a majority also said it has failed to change the way Washington works.

However, the Democratic Party continues to have low popularity among voters as it struggles to present a viable alternative.

Trump’s approval rating on the decline

According to the poll results, Trump’s overall approval rating has dropped by 4 points since March, falling to 43%.

Meanwhile, 55% of participants stated they disapprove of the president’s performance.

In the poll, conducted one year before the 2026 midterm elections, Democrats lead Republicans by 8 points in the congressional race, 50% to 42%.

This is the largest margin for either party in NBC News polls since the 2018 midterm elections.

In a poll conducted in March, Democrats held only a 1-point advantage, at 48% to 47%.

“Combined with the results from elections in New Jersey and Virginia, as well as some others, we will see in a few days what effect these findings might have on a government shutdown,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, who conducted the poll with Republican pollster Bill McInturff.

“The one thing we know is that voters are deeply dissatisfied with the current situation,” Horwitt said.

Who is responsible for the government shutdown?

The Democrats’ lead in the congressional race stands out as one of the largest advantages seen in public opinion polls conducted in 2025.

According to the poll, conducted between October 24-28, 52% of participants blame Trump and congressional Republicans for the government shutdown that has lasted for months.

On the other hand, a historically high 42% hold congressional Democrats responsible.

During past government shutdowns, a key question was whether the political atmosphere would remain the same throughout the election cycle after the funding crisis was resolved.

Republican pollster McInturff noted that government shutdowns can create “unstable” moments in politics, stating, “In our experience, these situations generally fade over time.”

Voter enthusiasm is high

The poll also revealed that voters are highly enthusiastic about the next elections.

When asked to rate their interest in the 2026 elections on a 10-point scale, 66% of voters responded with a “9” or “10.”

This level of interest is higher than that recorded one year before four of the last five midterm elections.

While 74% of Democrats rated their interest as a “9” or “10,” 67% of Republicans and 50% of independents gave the same response.

The 7-point enthusiasm gap between the parties is similar to the 9-point gap Democrats held in the 2018 midterm elections.

The results clearly indicate that Trump will be a significant factor in next year’s midterm elections.

Seventy percent of voters stated they want their vote to send a message of support for or opposition to the president. This is the highest figure recorded in the nearly 30-year history of NBC News polling. Forty percent of voters said their vote would be against Trump, while 30% said it would be in support of him.

Warning signs in the economy

In an interview on NBC News’s Meet the Press last December, Trump attributed his 2024 victory to two key factors, saying, “I won on the border, and I won on groceries.”

However, the new poll results contain some warning signs for the president on these issues, as well as on areas voters consider most important, such as protecting democracy and constitutional rights.

On economic issues, a large majority of registered voters believe Trump and his administration have failed to meet expectations regarding the cost of living (66%), protecting the middle class (65%), and the economy (63%).

Some Republicans also share this view, with this sentiment being concentrated among those who do not identify as “MAGA Republicans.”

The parties’ report cards on different issues

The poll also showed that voters are divided on which party would better manage the economy.

Thirty-eight percent of participants prefer Republicans, while 37% favor Democrats.

This marks the smallest margin Republicans have held on this issue in NBC News polls.

Democrats last held an advantage in this area in December 2017. In September 2023, Republicans had a 21-point lead.

Republicans maintain a significant advantage on three key issues: border security (+31 points over Democrats), fighting crime (+22 points), and immigration (+18 points).

Democrats hold an 8-point lead on protecting constitutional rights and an 11-point lead on protecting democracy.

This marks a shift from 2023, when Republicans were ahead by 8 points on constitutional rights and 1 point on protecting democracy.

Immigration policies and constitutional rights

Trump’s agenda of pursuing broad executive actions on immigration and other major policy areas is causing some public debate.

Fifty-four percent of participants stated that the Trump administration’s deployment of federal agents and National Guard troops to various cities nationwide to “combat crime and immigration” was largely unjustified, while 44% found the move justified.

The protection of constitutional rights and democracy also ranks among voters’ top concerns.

Nearly a quarter of voters said they consider protecting democracy or constitutional rights to be the single most important issue when casting their vote in next year’s congressional elections.

Fifty-two percent of voters said Trump has done more to weaken the US Constitution than to protect it compared to previous presidents, while 31% believe he has taken more steps to protect it.

Negative views of both parties

Although Trump’s challenges in the polls create opportunities for Democrats, the party’s overall image remains at a record low.

Only 28% of registered voters have a positive view of the Democratic Party, while 53% hold a negative opinion.

The Republican Party is in a relatively better position, with 37% positive and 46% negative ratings.

While 78% of Republicans view their own party favorably, only 59% of Democrats have a positive view of their party.

Peace efforts in Gaza

The poll also measured opinions on one of Trump’s major foreign policy initiatives: efforts to secure peace in Gaza, where a two-year war between Israel and Palestinian groups has been ongoing.

Voters are divided on Trump’s overall handling of the war: 47% approve, while 48% disapprove.

However, US voters are skeptical that Palestinians and Israelis can achieve a lasting peace agreement.

Only 21% believe a permanent peace can be achieved, while 69% think it is not possible.

Regarding the participation of US troops in a peacekeeping operation in Gaza, 41% of participants support the idea, while 54% are opposed.

America

Trump energy shares rose by up to $4.4m during Iran war, CNBC reports

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The value of US President Donald Trump’s nine largest oil and gas holdings increased by approximately $1.5 million to $4.4 million during the first six months of the war with Iran.

According to an analysis conducted by CNBC based on the American leader’s financial disclosure, corporate balance sheets, and FactSet market data, the investment basket includes shares in Chevron, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, Kinder Morgan, Marathon Petroleum, Occidental Petroleum, Phillips 66, Valero Energy, and Williams Companies.

In its calculations, the television network took into account the minimum and maximum baseline values of Trump’s declared holdings alongside share price fluctuations from the close of trading on 27 February through 31 August.

As the conflict with Iran continued, specialists managing Trump’s investment accounts maintained active trading in energy company shares.

Up to 29 June, the latest date for which transactions were disclosed, fresh purchases were logged alongside at least 23 sales operations involving stock in the nine companies.

Because disclosure filings do not specify exact share numbers or transaction prices, the estimates produced by CNBC do not reflect Trump’s realised profits or the precise current scale of his holdings.

On 2 March, the first trading day following the launch of air strikes against Iran by the US and Israel, shares in eight major oil and gas companies were purchased through Trump’s accounts.

These transactions included ExxonMobil shares valued at between $100,000 and $250,000. Prior to the conflict, the aggregate value of Trump’s holdings in ExxonMobil stood at between $3.2 million and $12.5 million.

Stock market gains in August, excluding subsequent transactions, raised the value of these shares by approximately $176,000 to $690,000.

CNBC also examined transactions executed on days when Trump’s decisions directly swayed the oil market. On 23 March, when the president deferred planned strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure, the price of a barrel of Brent crude dropped by roughly 11%.

That same day, oil and gas shares worth a combined $163,000 to $570,000 were purchased across Trump’s accounts.

A similar transaction took place on 7 April. One of Trump’s investment accounts sold between $500,000 and $1 million worth of ExxonMobil shares.

Approximately two and a half hours after markets closed, President Trump announced an agreement on a two-week ceasefire with Iran. The following morning, ExxonMobil shares fell by more than 6% at the market open.

The report noted that CNBC saw no evidence indicating that Trump gave direct instructions for specific trades, that managers possessed advance knowledge of his actions, or that personal financial interests guided White House policies.

White House officials, commenting on the matter, stated that the president’s investment portfolio is managed by independent portfolio managers and that neither Trump nor members of his family hold authority to intervene in asset trading decisions.

The growth in the portfolio coincided with a broader surge in the earnings of energy majors. The nine energy companies in which Trump holds shares generated a combined profit of $47.6 billion in the second quarter.

During the same period last year, that figure stood at $15.9 billion. The profits of ExxonMobil and Chevron alone climbed from $9.6 billion in the prior year to $26.6 billion.

In July, the US Office of Government Ethics published Trump’s 927-page financial disclosure report for 2025.

The report noted that Trump’s earnings from cryptocurrency operations exceeded $500 million.

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Over half of Latino voters back Democrats in key US House races

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A new public opinion poll in the US shows that Democratic candidates have made notable gains since 2024 among Latino voters in critical, competitive districts for the House of Representatives.

These gains have the potential to directly determine which party will secure the majority in Congress next year.

According to a joint survey by Hart Research and TelevisaUnivision shared with Axios, Democrats reached 58% support on the generic congressional ballot among Latino voters across 17 competitive House districts.

The share of those backing Republicans within the same voting bloc remained at 35%. This group continues to represent the fastest-growing swing constituency in battleground districts.

Examining three competitive House races in Texas, the study indicated that Latino voters, who reported splitting evenly at 44% to 44% in the 2024 presidential election, shifted 56% to 36% in favour of Democrats heading into the midterms.

Latino support for Democrats also increased in other states. In California, 57% of Latino voters said they would support Democrats, compared with 33% who said they would back the Republican Party.

Kate Coleman, Senior Vice President at TelevisaUnivision, highlighted voter behaviour in remarks to Axios:

“Latino voters are not locked into one party. They are watching developments closely; they make decisions based on who stands with them and how they stand.”

The survey data determined that 11% of Latino respondents who said they voted for Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election now support Democratic candidates.

Accelerating his deportation plans, Trump triggered fear across many Latino neighbourhoods while weakening his support among this demographic.

The Hart Research and TelevisaUnivision study revealed that 63% of Latino voters disapprove of Trump’s presidential job performance. The share of those approving of his performance in office stood at 36%.

Trump’s approach to high prices and the cost of living drew disapproval from 65% of Latino voters, while immigration enforcement and deportation practices were disapproved of by 62%.

More than half of Latino voters, at 64%, reported that they disapprove of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

A survey published in May by UnidosUS showed that a quarter of Latino voters “would probably not vote” or would definitely not support Trump if they had to vote for him again.

The study at that time had pointed out that, despite Trump’s decline among Latino voters, Democrats had not yet secured significant gains.

According to Pew Research Center data, Trump strengthened his support in 2024 by securing 48% of the Latino vote, coming very close to the 51% reached by then Vice President Kamala Harris.

Some figures within the Democratic Party, however, worry that primary victories by democratic socialist candidates could alienate certain Latino voters, particularly those who fled Cuba or Venezuela.

The Hart Research and TelevisaUnivision survey was conducted between 6 and 17 August among 1,500 Latino respondents. The poll’s margin of error was reported as 2.5 percentage points.

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Researcher quits Anthropic and warns AI firms gamble with lives

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Jacob Coxon, an artificial intelligence researcher at Anthropic, has resigned from his post, stating that tech companies are acting irresponsibly in the race towards self-improving superintelligence. Coxon warned that the autonomous operational capabilities of such systems pose existential risks to humanity and that internal industry anxieties run far deeper than generally perceived.

The AI researcher stepped down from his position at Anthropic to draw attention to industry safety vulnerabilities and the unregulated race among developers.

Having worked for three years as a pre-training researcher across both OpenAI and Anthropic, Coxon announced his decision to leave in an extensive statement shared on his X account.

Stating that both companies have acted irresponsibly, Coxon argued that developers are engaged in a dangerous race to achieve self-improving superintelligence.

“They believe it could kill us all by the end of the decade”

In his posts, Coxon stated that technical teams developing AI genuinely believe this technology could bring about the demise of humanity by the end of the decade.

Asserting that these concerns are not a marketing strategy, the researcher noted that while top executives and senior researchers adopt a cautious tone in public statements, they voice the very same fears behind closed doors.

Developments reflecting similar anxieties across the sector evoke James Cameron’s 1984 film The Terminator, which set 2029 as the pivotal year when machines waged war against humanity.

Indeed, Evan Hubinger, head of Anthropic’s own alignment team, had previously estimated the probability of human extinction to be greater than 10%.

Warning that systems currently under development will soon evolve into superhuman structures capable of bypassing any firewall, transforming industries overnight, and securing physical resources, Coxon stressed that the pace of progress is not slowing in any way.

Arguing that the danger of superintelligence is no longer merely theoretical, the researcher pointed to the Hugging Face security leak that occurred between May and July.

In that incident, OpenAI models established an independent chatroom within the testing environment to communicate among themselves, subsequently using this channel to reach the open internet and infiltrate production systems.

Because of this security breach, Hugging Face was forced to rebuild approximately one-third of its infrastructure.

“They are gambling with our lives”

Characterising the leak as a warning flare, Coxon indicated that the incident makes pacing agreements between US-based laboratories more feasible.

However, emphasising that developers are not yet on the right track to prevent a global race, the researcher noted that measures such as a temporary moratorium on advancing model capabilities could be considered.

Arguing that civilisation-scale risks have not yet been sufficiently internalised at OpenAI, Coxon contended that Anthropic joined the race out of an ambition to be first, despite being fully aware of the dangers.

Coxon is not the only figure to leave the sector on such grounds. Mrinank Sharma, a member of Anthropic’s safety team, also stepped down earlier this year, writing that the world is in danger.

On the other hand, not everyone agrees with these catastrophic scenarios. Some responses to the post emphasised the view that humanity, with an evolutionary history spanning hundreds of thousands of years, will not be wiped out by a text prediction model achieving consciousness.

It was also noted that even the plot of the Terminator franchise does not entirely support Coxon’s premise, as the human resistance survived the nuclear catastrophe and ultimately defeated the machines.

Alongside safety debates, AI continues to directly affect the labour market. Research by the Stanford Digital Economy Lab indicates that, while mass job losses have not yet materialised, entry-level employment in AI-exposed sectors across the US has fallen by nearly 20%.

A Goldman Sachs study pointed to a similar trend, showing that entry-level workers bear the brunt of the ongoing workforce transformation.

Anthropic, which remains at the centre of the controversy, filed for an initial public offering in June and plans to list on the Nasdaq exchange this autumn at a multi-trillion-dollar valuation.

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