Europe
Election results confirm deepening divide between eastern and western Germany
On 23 February, the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) emerged as the leading party, while the Alternative for Germany (AfD) secured second place in the early federal elections. These results highlighted a stark division between eastern and western Germany.
As the European Parliament (EP) elections last June demonstrated, the AfD has solidified its position as the strongest party in eastern Germany, where it garnered 32% of the votes—nearly one in three voters supported the party. For instance, in Saxony, Maximilian Krah, a controversial AfD candidate, is expected to win his constituency with over 40% of the vote.
“I look forward to watching the self-destruction of the CDU live in the Bundestag soon. Merz is leading his party into a loose state, and it’s called the Afghanistan coalition,” Krah told Euractiv in a written statement.
It remains unclear whether Krah’s victory will be sufficient for him to enter the Bundestag under Germany’s new election procedure. Additional local constituency victories could secure more seats for the AfD based on its initial vote share in Saxony.
In western Germany, the CDU/CSU declared victory as the clear leader, securing 30.8% of the vote. The AfD surpassed the Social Democratic Party (SPD) to become the second-largest party in the west, with 17.7% of the vote.
In addition to the CDU’s success in some eastern constituencies, the SPD and the Greens also won in certain western regions. However, the biggest surprise came from Berlin, where Die Linke (The Left Party) emerged victorious with nearly 20% of the vote.
After years of decline, Die Linke , which had been polling at just 3% a few months ago, benefited from the focus on immigration policy and the question of how to deal with the AfD during the final stages of the election campaign. A significant portion of the SPD and Green voter base quickly shifted to Die Linke . Thousands of new members have registered in recent weeks, boosting the party above the 5% threshold; current estimates place it between 8% and 9%.
During the campaign, Die Linke initially aimed for three direct mandates, as surpassing the 5% threshold was considered nearly impossible. In the end, the party won several constituencies outright, including four in Berlin: Ines Schwerdtner in Berlin-Lichtenberg, Gregor Gysi in Treptow-Köpenick, Pascal Meiser in Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg, and Ferat Koçak in Neukölln. Neukölln marked the first “western constituency” won by the party.
Until recently, no one in the party seriously expected Meiser to win the Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg constituency. Former Thuringian Prime Minister Bodo Ramelow won the Erfurt-Weimar-Weimarer Land II constituency, while Sören Pellmann retained the Leipzig II constituency.
While Die Linke remained below its previous peaks in eastern German states, repeating its relatively poor 2021 performance with minor improvements, it made significant gains in western Germany, where it had performed disastrously in recent state elections. Notably, the party exceeded 5% in Bavaria.
The overall trend reflects a shift in the center of gravity of Die Linke’s electorate toward the west. The party achieved above-average results in university towns where the Greens had previously excelled. For example, in the Münster constituency, Die Linke won 12.5% of the second votes (+7.5 percentage points), in Bonn 12.5% (+7), and in Heidelberg 10.1% (+5.3).
The Sahara Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), founded by Die Linke defectors, disappointed. After major successes in three state elections in eastern Germany in September 2024 and subsequent entry into two state governments, the BSW steadily declined in polls. Some polling organizations consistently underestimated the party by three or four percentage points, which may have influenced voters. The Forsa poll published just before the election showed the BSW at around 3%, prompting strong reactions from the party, which described it as a form of “disinformation.”
At approximately 82.5%, turnout was significantly higher than in 2021 (76.4%) and reached its highest level since the reunification of East and West Germany in 1990.
Demographically, Die Linke achieved surprising success among first-time voters, leading with 27%. Among young women in urban areas, support for Die Linke reached 34%, followed by the Greens with 22% and the SPD with 12%. Among older men in rural areas, the CDU led with 42%, followed by the AfD and SPD with 18% each.
Voting patterns among economically disadvantaged voters were as follows: AfD 37%, CDU 18%, SPD 12%, Die Linke 11%, Greens 7%, and BSW 7%. The AfD increased its share in this segment by 18 points compared to the 2021 federal elections.
The AfD also gained ground among workers and employees. In 2021, the CDU received 20%, the SPD 26%, and the AfD 21%. In contrast, yesterday’s elections saw the AfD receive 38%, the CDU 22%, and the SPD 12%.
This trend is reflected in other survey questions: 75% of AfD voters expressed fear of being unable to pay their bills due to rising prices, compared to 60% of Die Linke voters. While the overall average is 53%, CDU, SPD, and Green voters are below this figure: 46%, 43%, and 28%, respectively.
Whereas in 2022 only 39% of German voters considered the economic situation bad, this figure has risen to 83%, with 96% of AfD voters sharing this view.
The Greens tend to attract upper-income voters, while the AfD, Die Linke , and to a lesser extent the CDU/CSU seem to draw support from lower-income groups.
Regarding the source of the AfD’s votes, “non-voters” constitute the largest group: 1,830,000. This is followed by the CDU (830,000), the FDP (750,000), the SPD (630,000), Die Linke (90,000), and the Greens (70,000). Only 60,000 votes shifted from the AfD to the BSW, indicating that right-wing and left-wing parties with anti-immigration rhetoric, particularly in eastern Germany, have distinct voter bases and that there was no significant shift from the AfD to the “left.”
Europe
China’s critical mineral restrictions challenge EU defence expansion plans
The European Union’s plans to expand its defence capabilities are being hindered by China’s export controls and sales restrictions on critical raw materials.
In response, EU leaders are urging member states to accelerate efforts to diversify supply chains.
According to Nikkei Asia, the European Commission announced last week that it would propose new legislation requiring companies across the bloc to broaden their supplier base in an effort to address economic imbalances, although it did not explicitly name China.
The war in Ukraine and growing uncertainty over Washington’s security guarantees have pushed European governments to increase military spending and defence production.
At the same time, according to a report published in May by Joris Teer, a policy analyst at the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), China accounts for at least 70% of global mining or refining activity in 17 of the 34 materials classified as critical by the EU. Eight of those 34 materials are currently subject to Chinese export controls.
“China is undermining Europe’s rearmament efforts,” Teer wrote. “Simply by activating this tool, China has already increased its leverage and demonstrated both the capability and willingness to restrict supply whenever it chooses.”
The Aerospace, Security and Defence Industries Association of Europe also warned that geopolitical developments and intensifying global competition for critical raw materials are further underscoring the need to strengthen European supply chains.
The organisation represents more than 4,000 companies, including Britain’s BAE Systems, France’s Thales and Germany’s Rheinmetall.
European defence manufacturers are pursuing a range of strategies, including vertical integration, recycling, diversification and stockpiling.
Rheinmetall told Nikkei Asia that it has “no dependencies” and is “well prepared” regarding critical minerals.
A company spokesperson said: “Rheinmetall has stockpiled key raw materials sufficient for several years. We have also implemented IT systems that allow us to centrally monitor and precisely manage raw material consumption across the entire group.”
Analysts, however, caution that stockpiling alone will not be sufficient. Maria Shagina, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said: “Stockpiling serves as an important buffer against sudden disruptions, but on its own it is unlikely to mitigate structural damage over the long term.”
Shagina added that replacing the volume and diversity of critical minerals controlled by Beijing with alternative sources would take years.
In 2024, the EU enacted the European Critical Raw Materials Act, aimed at rebuilding domestic supply chains for such minerals.
The legislation sets 2030 targets for domestic extraction, processing and recycling while limiting dependence on any single third-country supplier to 65%.
A €3 billion ($3.5 billion) fund was established last year to accelerate strategic projects.
Nevertheless, the European Court of Auditors has noted that the 2030 targets are not legally binding and that the EU remains far from achieving them.
Industry groups argue that policy inconsistencies could further slow progress.
The Cobalt Institute, which represents a sector vital to jet engines, advanced batteries and defence alloys, warned that proposed EU chemicals regulations risk undermining the industry.
“Europe has one foot in and one foot out,” said Michael Blakeney, head of government and public affairs at the London-based institute. “It says the right things, but its actions are inconsistent.”
Europe’s efforts are unfolding alongside a more aggressive US strategy to secure critical mineral supply chains.
Shagina said:
“The US is investing more capital to secure and expand capacity, taking greater financial risks and, in some cases, acquiring equity stakes. Europe, by contrast, is generally more cautious, which places it at a relative disadvantage in the competition for critical minerals.”
In April, the EU signed an agreement with the United States to coordinate supplies of critical minerals. Although some member states initially resisted over concerns that the deal could weaken the bloc’s strategic autonomy, they authorised the Commission in early June to join the US-led “Pax Silica” initiative, which coordinates investment and export-control policies.
Teer urged Europe to use ongoing US-EU-Japan negotiations as the nucleus of a broader coalition aimed at making critical mineral production outside China financially viable through state support, minimum-price mechanisms and supply rules.
“Particularly important are countries that either produce raw materials or possess significant mineral deposits, such as Malaysia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Brazil and Indonesia, as well as countries like India with large pools of skilled labour,” he said.
Teer also argued that the EU should activate its Anti-Coercion Instrument, which allows the bloc to impose tariffs and restrictions in response to economic pressure on countries outside the union, in order to deter China from introducing further restrictions.
A European Commission spokesperson said the bloc had “long been aware of the risks associated with the EU’s dependence on critical raw materials.”
“The objective is clear: to anticipate disruptions early and reduce the EU’s vulnerabilities while strengthening our industrial and defence capacities,” the spokesperson said.
Europe
Four European countries move to make citizenship harder to obtain
European countries are increasingly tightening their citizenship rules. Most recently, the Norwegian government has drafted legislation that would raise the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from three years to seven.
The proposed amendments to the citizenship law were presented by the Ministry of Labour and Social Inclusion.
Under the draft legislation, stateless individuals born in Norway, as well as those who arrived in the country as children, would be required to reside in Norway for at least five years before becoming eligible for citizenship.
The government also plans to increase residency requirements for foreign nationals who are married to or cohabiting with Norwegian citizens.
Language requirements are set to become more demanding as well. The proposal would raise the required level of spoken Norwegian proficiency from A2 to B1. The new rules would apply to applicants aged between 18 and 67.
Commenting on the changes, Minister of Labour and Social Inclusion Kjersti Stenseng said: “Obtaining and holding Norwegian citizenship should be a privilege.”
The government argues that simplifying administrative procedures while simultaneously tightening eligibility criteria will help reduce the country’s large backlog of pending applications and shorten processing times.
Norway is the latest European country to announce revisions to its citizenship rules.
In Finland, the minimum residency requirement for citizenship was increased from five years to eight years on October 1, 2024.
The country also plans to introduce a mandatory citizenship test for applicants aged between 18 and 64 from the beginning of 2027.
Finnish Interior Minister Mari Rantanen said: “The introduction of a citizenship test is the final component of a comprehensive reform aimed at making citizenship requirements more stringent.”
Sweden has also approved a similar reform. Beginning in June 2026, the standard residency requirement for citizenship will increase from five years to eight years. Authorities are also introducing a financial self-sufficiency requirement for applicants and expanding the scope of security screenings.
Explaining the rationale behind the changes, Migration Minister Johan Forssell said: “It was possible to become a citizen after living in the country for five years without knowing a single word of Swedish, learning anything about Swedish society, or even having one’s own source of income.”
The most far-reaching changes have been implemented in Portugal. Portuguese President Antonio Jose Seguro has signed legislation raising the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from five years to 10 years.
For citizens of the European Union and the Community of Portuguese Language Countries, the requirement has been set at seven years.
The residency period will now be calculated from the date a residence permit is granted rather than from the date a citizenship application is submitted. The new rules will also affect the children of immigrants.
Previously, children could obtain citizenship one year after birth if their parents held residence permits. Under the new rules, at least one parent must have legally resided in the country for a minimum of five years.
The law also introduces a mandatory examination covering Portuguese history, culture, values and social structures.
Migration policies are tightening across the European Union as well. On June 17, the European Parliament approved legislation allowing irregular migrants whose asylum applications have been rejected but who cannot be returned to their countries of origin to be deported to third countries.
The new EU rules permit the establishment of migrant detention centres outside the bloc’s borders. African countries are reportedly among the options being discussed for such facilities.
Europe
SpaceX warns EU satellite spectrum plan could disrupt connectivity in Ukraine
SpaceX has sharply criticised a European Union plan to restrict access to satellite spectrum, arguing that the proposal risks degrading connectivity in Ukraine and disrupting emergency communications services.
In a document shared with European officials and reviewed by the Financial Times, SpaceX warned:
“This proposal significantly increases the likelihood that Europeans will be deprived of direct-to-device satellite services, or that new European operations will create global interference issues, including for emergency services such as those operating in Ukraine.”
In a proposal unveiled in May, the EU recommended reserving part of the spectrum band used for direct satellite-to-smartphone connectivity for European operators, thereby limiting the frequencies available to US and Chinese providers.
The 2 GHz frequency band in question is currently used by two US companies, Viasat and EchoStar.
SpaceX argued that the EU plan prioritises “an operator’s country of establishment over economic, technical and regulatory realities.”
When the proposal was announced, EU technology chief Henna Virkkunen defended the move, saying the bloc wanted to “increase European capacity in this sector.” She added that other parts of the frequency band would remain open to international operators, arguing that prioritising European providers was justified.
Other participants involved in discussions over the proposal said some EU officials were specifically seeking to limit Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite network.
Europe’s initiative follows a warning from Washington. In March, the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) cautioned that it could take retaliatory measures if the EU chose to favour European satellite operators over alternatives such as Starlink.
At the time, FCC Chairman Brendan Carr told the Financial Times: “Some of the discussions in Europe regarding satellite sovereignty concern us. If Europe decides to move down that path, then, as you know, we will have to consider reciprocal measures.”
The European Commission’s proposal has not yet entered formal negotiations with EU member states or the European Parliament.
A source close to SpaceX said the company remained hopeful of influencing the outcome of the process, given concerns raised by both businesses and several European governments.
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