Europe
Election results confirm deepening divide between eastern and western Germany
On 23 February, the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) emerged as the leading party, while the Alternative for Germany (AfD) secured second place in the early federal elections. These results highlighted a stark division between eastern and western Germany.
As the European Parliament (EP) elections last June demonstrated, the AfD has solidified its position as the strongest party in eastern Germany, where it garnered 32% of the votes—nearly one in three voters supported the party. For instance, in Saxony, Maximilian Krah, a controversial AfD candidate, is expected to win his constituency with over 40% of the vote.
“I look forward to watching the self-destruction of the CDU live in the Bundestag soon. Merz is leading his party into a loose state, and it’s called the Afghanistan coalition,” Krah told Euractiv in a written statement.
It remains unclear whether Krah’s victory will be sufficient for him to enter the Bundestag under Germany’s new election procedure. Additional local constituency victories could secure more seats for the AfD based on its initial vote share in Saxony.
In western Germany, the CDU/CSU declared victory as the clear leader, securing 30.8% of the vote. The AfD surpassed the Social Democratic Party (SPD) to become the second-largest party in the west, with 17.7% of the vote.
In addition to the CDU’s success in some eastern constituencies, the SPD and the Greens also won in certain western regions. However, the biggest surprise came from Berlin, where Die Linke (The Left Party) emerged victorious with nearly 20% of the vote.
After years of decline, Die Linke , which had been polling at just 3% a few months ago, benefited from the focus on immigration policy and the question of how to deal with the AfD during the final stages of the election campaign. A significant portion of the SPD and Green voter base quickly shifted to Die Linke . Thousands of new members have registered in recent weeks, boosting the party above the 5% threshold; current estimates place it between 8% and 9%.
During the campaign, Die Linke initially aimed for three direct mandates, as surpassing the 5% threshold was considered nearly impossible. In the end, the party won several constituencies outright, including four in Berlin: Ines Schwerdtner in Berlin-Lichtenberg, Gregor Gysi in Treptow-Köpenick, Pascal Meiser in Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg, and Ferat Koçak in Neukölln. Neukölln marked the first “western constituency” won by the party.
Until recently, no one in the party seriously expected Meiser to win the Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg constituency. Former Thuringian Prime Minister Bodo Ramelow won the Erfurt-Weimar-Weimarer Land II constituency, while Sören Pellmann retained the Leipzig II constituency.
While Die Linke remained below its previous peaks in eastern German states, repeating its relatively poor 2021 performance with minor improvements, it made significant gains in western Germany, where it had performed disastrously in recent state elections. Notably, the party exceeded 5% in Bavaria.
The overall trend reflects a shift in the center of gravity of Die Linke’s electorate toward the west. The party achieved above-average results in university towns where the Greens had previously excelled. For example, in the Münster constituency, Die Linke won 12.5% of the second votes (+7.5 percentage points), in Bonn 12.5% (+7), and in Heidelberg 10.1% (+5.3).
The Sahara Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), founded by Die Linke defectors, disappointed. After major successes in three state elections in eastern Germany in September 2024 and subsequent entry into two state governments, the BSW steadily declined in polls. Some polling organizations consistently underestimated the party by three or four percentage points, which may have influenced voters. The Forsa poll published just before the election showed the BSW at around 3%, prompting strong reactions from the party, which described it as a form of “disinformation.”
At approximately 82.5%, turnout was significantly higher than in 2021 (76.4%) and reached its highest level since the reunification of East and West Germany in 1990.
Demographically, Die Linke achieved surprising success among first-time voters, leading with 27%. Among young women in urban areas, support for Die Linke reached 34%, followed by the Greens with 22% and the SPD with 12%. Among older men in rural areas, the CDU led with 42%, followed by the AfD and SPD with 18% each.
Voting patterns among economically disadvantaged voters were as follows: AfD 37%, CDU 18%, SPD 12%, Die Linke 11%, Greens 7%, and BSW 7%. The AfD increased its share in this segment by 18 points compared to the 2021 federal elections.
The AfD also gained ground among workers and employees. In 2021, the CDU received 20%, the SPD 26%, and the AfD 21%. In contrast, yesterday’s elections saw the AfD receive 38%, the CDU 22%, and the SPD 12%.
This trend is reflected in other survey questions: 75% of AfD voters expressed fear of being unable to pay their bills due to rising prices, compared to 60% of Die Linke voters. While the overall average is 53%, CDU, SPD, and Green voters are below this figure: 46%, 43%, and 28%, respectively.
Whereas in 2022 only 39% of German voters considered the economic situation bad, this figure has risen to 83%, with 96% of AfD voters sharing this view.
The Greens tend to attract upper-income voters, while the AfD, Die Linke , and to a lesser extent the CDU/CSU seem to draw support from lower-income groups.
Regarding the source of the AfD’s votes, “non-voters” constitute the largest group: 1,830,000. This is followed by the CDU (830,000), the FDP (750,000), the SPD (630,000), Die Linke (90,000), and the Greens (70,000). Only 60,000 votes shifted from the AfD to the BSW, indicating that right-wing and left-wing parties with anti-immigration rhetoric, particularly in eastern Germany, have distinct voter bases and that there was no significant shift from the AfD to the “left.”
Europe
Fico accuses Merz of blackmail over threat to veto EU budget
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has hit back after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz threatened to veto the EU budget unless funding for Ukraine is secured.
Merz said he would block the EU’s seven-year budget if no agreement is reached on financial assistance for Ukraine.
The chancellor’s intervention has angered Central European leaders who are net beneficiaries of EU funds but do not want to take part in the next round of funding to support Ukraine’s war effort.
“What the chancellor is doing is typical blackmail, and I will not bow to it,” Fico told reporters in Bratislava.
Fico spoke alongside his Czech counterpart, Andrej Babiš, whose government has refused to participate in a future loan to Ukraine.
“I do not know why he said this,” Babiš said, referring to Merz’s stance.
Merz wants EU leaders to discuss Ukraine’s financing needs at a summit in Dublin on Friday.
In a letter to European Council President António Costa, who will chair the meeting, obtained by The Guardian, Merz wrote:
“We must maintain our support for Ukraine in its struggle to defend itself. This is our shared vital interest. Yet bilateral aid provided to Ukraine is distributed unevenly, with the burden shouldered mostly by only a few member states.”
The EU agreed last year to provide a €90 billion loan to Ukraine, intended to cover two-thirds of its military and civilian spending for 2026 and 2027.
Since then, however, Russia’s relentless bombardment has placed a heavier financial burden on Kyiv, prompting President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to ask for €70 billion to plug the budget deficit.
The EU has endorsed Zelenskyy’s figures and pledged to find €45 billion. Ukraine’s other allies, such as Britain and Canada, are expected to cover the rest.
Last year, Merz launched an initiative to tap €210 billion in frozen Russian state assets held in the EU, but the plan fell through due to opposition led by Belgium, which holds most of the funds in Brussels.
The €90 billion loan was the backup plan. Having opted out of that loan, Hungary, Slovakia, and Czechia indicated that they would not take part in the next round either.
Bulgaria joined these three member states following the election of Prime Minister Rumen Radev last April.
The question of funding for Ukraine is now spilling over into the fraught negotiations on the 2028-34 EU budget.
Germany, the largest net contributor, wants substantial cuts to the proposed budget and opposes the EU providing generous funding to member states that refuse to contribute to Ukraine’s financial needs.
Merz states in his letter that a “collective commitment without exceptions” is a “fundamental prerequisite” for closing Ukraine’s financing gap and for “discussing other matters, particularly those with financial implications.”
He also notes that, in the context of the EU’s next seven-year budget, known as the Multiannual Financial Framework, all member states must contribute to a “robust” financial perspective for Ukraine from 2028 onwards.
A German government official said:
“For the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) to be successfully concluded, it is vital that all EU member states provide financial support to Ukraine.”
Berlin is also aiming to shift decision-making on funding for Ukraine from unanimity to qualified majority voting, in an effort to prevent a single government from blocking EU decisions.
The letter reflects mounting frustration among the EU’s northern member states, Ukraine’s most generous backers, over lower contributions from other EU countries in Central and Southern Europe.
The task of brokering an agreement on the budget falls to Costa, the former Portuguese prime minister.
Costa wants a deal by the end of the year, ahead of elections in France, Poland, and Italy in 2027 that could complicate the process.
A spokesperson for Costa confirmed receipt of the letter without elaborating on details. “President Costa will dedicate time to the Ukraine issue at the informal European Council meeting in Dublin this week,” the spokesperson said, adding that funding for Ukraine would be addressed at a dedicated summit on the EU budget scheduled for 26-27 November.
Europe
EU expects next Israeli government to adopt less aggressive posture
The EU expects the next Israeli government to mend its “difficult relationship” with Brussels and adopt a more constructive approach toward Gaza and illegal settlements.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog tasked Gadi Eisenkot, the leader of the anti-Netanyahu bloc, on Sunday with forming a government.
Eisenkot stated that the country faces a “catastrophic diplomatic crisis” as traditional allies begin to reassess their relations with Israel.
Speaking to Rapporteur, several European diplomats stationed in Tel Aviv said they expect ties to get back on track.
“Whatever government comes in, we can try to revitalize relations because Israel is clearly a very important partner,” one European diplomat said, adding that Brussels expects the next administration to be “less aggressive”.
The diplomat noted that relations with Europe are currently “not very good”.
Israel cut off communication with Kaja Kallas, the EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, after Rapporteur revealed in June that she had compared Israel to apartheid-era South Africa during a visit to Mexico.
The diplomat stated that this decision, taken ahead of elections, was political in nature. A second European diplomat based in Brussels explained that the announcement came only a few days before an official visit by Dubravka Šuica, the European commissioner for the Mediterranean.
“This could have been interpreted as a tactic to divide Europe, but Israel had asked Kallas to deny the report; she did not do so,” the second diplomat said.
Brussels has repeatedly voiced its frustration with Israel over the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and the expansion of West Bank settlements.
However, EU governments blocked almost all sanctions proposed by the European Commission.
A third diplomat said opposition parties would “almost certainly take the issue more seriously” when it comes to tackling violence by West Bank settlers:
“We see Palestinians being expelled from their homes and new illegal settlements being built in the West Bank. There is a reluctance on the part of the current government to address this issue, which causes problems in our relations.”
The new government is expected to ease pressure on Palestinians and halt construction of the E1 settlement project, a controversial plan to build settler housing in the West Bank east of Jerusalem.
“They will probably try to deal with the problem of extremist settlers in the West Bank,” the diplomat added.
On Gaza, the diplomat described the situation as “a complete nightmare”, with two million Palestinians crowded into an area that accounts for roughly 35% of the territory.
“There are not enough tents for the winter, and not enough vaccines are reaching the area despite an increase in diseases,” the diplomat said.
The European official argued that Donald Trump’s peace plan met all the conditions for Europe. Although the EU had much to offer, neither the US nor Israel appeared interested in EU involvement in the process.
“We are currently training Palestinian police in the West Bank, and if permitted, we could do the same in Gaza,” the diplomat said.
The diplomat disclosed that Israel had agreed with Šuica that Europe would finance two projects aimed at improving sewage and water infrastructure in Gaza, continuing:
“However, none of these projects has started yet because there is a serious problem with dual-use goods. Getting materials into Gaza is very difficult because the Israelis say they could be misused if they fall into the wrong hands of Hamas.”
Israel insists that Hamas must be disarmed before subsequent phases of Trump’s plan can proceed.
With disarmament unlikely to happen in the near term, the EU argues that certain measures can be carried out in parallel.
“We can begin rebuilding sanitation systems in Gaza. We can start building desalination plants. We can begin providing energy and water to Gaza,” one diplomat said.
While Brussels hopes for progress on Gaza and the West Bank, it maintains that expectations regarding the establishment of a Palestinian state need to be “managed”.
The EU continues to advocate a two-state solution, yet most leading Jewish parties oppose the creation of a Palestinian state.
The diplomat noted that the next Israeli government will likely have “a very slim majority and not much room for manoeuvre”.
There is also a “major misunderstanding” between the EU and Israel that must be addressed. According to the diplomat, Europeans fail to recognize the “psychological impact” of 7 October on Israelis.
“This event changed the country and made the two-state solution even more distant than before,” the diplomat said.
In return, some Israeli politicians believe Europe has betrayed Israel despite what they view as a fight against “Islamist terrorism”.
“Their argument is that European politicians are somewhat afraid of the Muslim population in Europe,” the European diplomat said.
Europe strongly opposes Iran and the possibility of Tehran acquiring nuclear weapons, imposing sanctions in response.
However, the diplomat argued that the EU would not participate in a war because it lacks a common army:
“We are a diplomatic and economic power, which is why we resort to sanctions and diplomacy. The expectation that we would take part in a military operation is unrealistic.”
Europe
Germany threatens EU budget veto over long-term Ukraine aid
Germany has threatened to veto the European Union’s joint budget for the 2028-2034 period, which is currently under negotiation, unless every member state commits to providing financial support to Ukraine in 2027 and subsequent years, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned.
According to a report by the Financial Times (FT), Chancellor Merz set out Berlin’s condition for the budget talks in a letter addressed to European Council President António Costa.
In his letter, Merz wrote: “A collective commitment that every single one of us, without exception, will make a fair contribution to closing Ukraine’s budget deficit is an indispensable prerequisite for resolving this budget issue and, in particular, for addressing subsequent matters that carry financial implications.”
The German Chancellor stressed that a formula backed by all member states must be established to provide Ukraine with a reliable, multi-year financial perspective starting from 2028.
Merz also insisted that any agreed solution must cover the interest payments on debts incurred to finance the assistance provided to Kyiv.
Conversely, several countries within the bloc have cut financial aid to Ukraine, and the number of capitals adopting this stance is projected to rise next year.
In December 2025, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic approved the EU’s 90 billion euro loan package for Kyiv only on the condition that they would not contribute to its costs themselves.
Alongside these three countries, Bulgaria has also stated that it does not plan to participate in subsequent financial assistance packages for Ukraine.
In France, far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who could potentially win the presidential election scheduled for spring 2027, recently told the FT that Paris has run out of funds.
Le Pen assessed: “The honest approach is to tell Mr Zelensky clearly, and even warn him: ‘Look, we cannot do more. We have already allocated the 90 billion euro EU loan, in which France’s share amounts to 18 billion euros. 18 billion euros is genuinely a huge amount of money.'”
The EU’s 90 billion euro loan, covering the 2026-2027 period, aims to meet two-thirds of Ukraine’s financing requirements.
Brussels expects the remaining 45 billion euros to be covered by other partners, including Canada, the UK, Norway, Japan, South Korea, and Australia.
Germany remains the largest net contributor to the EU budget.
In contrast, the four Eastern European countries seeking to avoid financing Ukraine rank among the largest net beneficiaries of the bloc’s budget.
Leveraging this balance, Chancellor Merz aims to use his influence in the EU budget negotiations to secure uninterrupted support for Kyiv in 2027 and the years beyond.
According to the FT, Berlin is also demanding that future aid packages be decided by qualified majority voting rather than unanimity, which is required under the current system.
A German government spokesperson told the newspaper:
“The issue of Ukraine’s financial needs must be resolved within the framework of the next EU budget. Financial support for Ukraine from all EU members is decisive for the successful conclusion of the budget talks.”
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