Europe
German elections pave the way for a potential CDU-SPD grand coalition
After the 23 February German federal elections, all eyes turned to the coalition scenarios and the program of the next chancellor. With the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) emerging as the leading party, it is almost certain that CDU leader Friedrich Merz will become the next chancellor and form the government.
At this point, since the CDU has not been able to secure a majority, the question of who will knock on the door for a coalition is on the agenda. Merz and his party, which closed the door to the second-ranked Alternative for Germany (AfD), are likely to mobilize for a “grand coalition” with the SPD.
Looking at the numbers, the fact that the FDP, the junior partner of the previous traffic-light coalition, and the new left-wing party, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), failed to pass the threshold and are now out of parliament seems to favor the CDU-SPD coalition. With these two parties out of parliament, the possible grand coalition automatically has a majority of seats.
On the other hand, if the BSW, which seems to have fallen short of the threshold by around 2,000 votes, manages to enter parliament after objections, the CDU-SPD coalition will need a third party. The biggest third-party candidate for such a coalition seems to be the Greens.
The SPD’s worst result since the Second World War also weakens the party’s hand in a possible coalition. Although Chancellor Olaf Scholz continues to serve as a caretaker, it seems less likely that he will remain at the head of the party. The most likely candidate to lead the SPD is Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.
Pistorius’ personal popularity, supported by the media, seems to even surpass Merz: Public broadcaster ARD asked voters which candidate they would most like to see become chancellor. Among those nominated by the parties, Friedrich Merz came first with 34%, but the person with the strongest voter support (though not one of the main candidates) was Boris Pistorius with 47%.
Party co-chairman Lars Klingbeil will head the SPD’s parliamentary group. So far, Klingbeil has been tight-lipped about whether the party would accept an alliance with the CDU.
In any case, there are other, bigger problems beyond the numbers. Some disputes between the CDU and the SPD, and between the CDU and the Greens, could come to the fore in a possible coalition. These include the war in Ukraine, transatlantic relations, the issue of migration and defense spending, and the debate on the constitutional debt brake.
On the issue of migration, for example, the CDU and its leader Merz have shown that they will not hesitate to side with the AfD. According to the exit polls of public broadcaster ZDF, voters made it clear that their biggest concerns were immigration and security (44%), followed by the state of the economy (35%).
The debate on defense spending and the constitutional debt brake could be Merz’s soft underbelly, since the CDU, which is also fiscally “conservative,” has long opposed any change or relaxation of the debt brake clause, which limits state debt to 0.35% of GDP. Merz had signaled before the elections that this position could be relaxed.
The two parties that will play a critical role in the new parliament, Die Linke (Left Party) and AfD, will also be decisive. The Left Party is in favor of lifting the debt brake but also wants to reduce the defense budget and opposes Merz’s platform on many other issues, including taxation and immigration. This could make any deal involving this party extremely difficult.
The AfD, on the other hand, wants to stick to the country’s strict debt limits but is in favor of increasing defense spending. And given the party’s warm relations with the new US government across the Atlantic, it is unlikely that Alice Weidel and her colleagues will oppose Trump’s demand for more European defense spending.
The failure of the “mainstream” parties to secure a two-thirds majority in parliament will also make it more difficult to pass the debt-ceiling reform. According to Bloomberg , this could lead to “some creative alternatives.”
The new chancellor could ask parliament to temporarily suspend the constitutional rule and allow higher spending. The most important risk to watch in such a scenario would be any litigation at the country’s Federal Constitutional Court. While it is difficult to predict how the court will react, it may be more inclined to an immediate suspension, especially given the current geopolitical challenges.
In addition, Markus Söder, leader of the CSU, the CDU’s sister party in Bavaria, had declared before the elections that he was also cold to an alliance with the SPD. One can imagine what the CSU, which does not even accept the SPD, would say about a federal coalition with the Greens.
However, the Greens seem to have left the door open for a coalition. When asked whether the Greens would contact the CDU for a possible coalition, Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck said that it was Merz’s prerogative to initiate such talks, but he also made it clear that the Greens were willing to participate in a coalition.
“This is the only possibility,” Habeck told public broadcaster ZDF. “What this result means has to be understood: We are in a very difficult situation,” Habeck said.
German business executives have already begun to assess the election results in terms of “stability” and “competitiveness.” Christian Bruch, CEO of Siemens Energy, said in an emailed statement: “It is important that the democratic center parties form a stable government as soon as possible to address these challenges as soon as possible. Germany must quickly regain its competitiveness. Steps in energy policy are vital for this,” he said.
Bruch’s comments are in line with a statement made last night by Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing, speaking in his capacity as head of Germany’s banking lobby. “Germany now needs a government that is willing to act and can do so quickly. The challenges facing our country are enormous: the economy urgently needs a fresh start with fundamental reforms,” Sewing said.
Europe
Hungary’s new PM Magyar vows absolute ban on illegal migration, challenging Brussels over fines
Hungary’s newly elected Prime Minister Péter Magyar has pledged to block all illegal migration, reject European Union quotas, and challenge Brussels’ punitive fines, signaling a highly restrictive border policy even as he vows to restore ties with European partners.
In his first interview with the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung since taking office, Magyar outlined his administration’s strategic roadmap. He addressed the smear campaigns directed against him by the former government of Viktor Orbán, relations with the EU, migration policy, and the economic necessity of maintaining energy ties with Russia.
Reflecting on his transition to power, Magyar noted that the Orbán administration targeted him, his family, and his colleagues during a highly polarized campaign.
“I have known Viktor Orbán for a long time. What happened during the election campaign was no surprise to me, even if it might be difficult to imagine in other countries,” Magyar said. “The mudslinging campaign was not just directed at me personally, but also against my family, my colleagues, and my friends. However, those who faced each other were not Hungarians against Hungarians; it was Viktor Orbán and his vassals standing against the Hungarian nation. One of our most important campaign promises is that we will do everything we can to reunite the Hungarian nation.”
Despite running a pro-European campaign to secure victory, Magyar acknowledged fundamental disagreements with Brussels, particularly on migration. He argued that former Prime Minister Orbán’s hardline stance during the 2015 European migrant crisis was correct.
“My government will pursue an extremely strict and decisive policy regarding illegal migration,” Magyar said. “You can be as angry with Viktor Orbán as you want—and no one has criticized him more than I have—but when the migration crisis began in 2015, he was right. Many member states have now admitted they made wrong decisions at the time. In any case, we will protect our homeland, our country’s borders, and the external borders of Europe.”
“Hungary will not accept any illegal migrants”
Responding to whether Hungary would comply with newly implemented EU asylum rules, which mandate member states to conduct processing procedures at external borders, Magyar delivered a firm refusal regarding quotas and penalties.
“I can only say this: Hungary will not accept any illegal migrants. We will not pay any penalties for this either,” Magyar said. “However, we will help protect Europe’s external borders, whether in Greece, Malta, or Italy. The 2015 migration crisis must be a lesson for Europe. The most important duty of European politicians is to protect the safety of the people. I believe there are many ways to stop illegal migration without violating European Union rules. It is simply a matter of being able to negotiate.”
Magyar also dismissed the current relevance of a European Court of Justice ruling imposing a daily fine of 1 million euros on Hungary for failing to implement EU asylum procedures, arguing the decision is outdated.
“The court’s decision was made at a very different time and under a different legal framework,” Magyar said. “Today, we are in a completely different situation. This decision no longer reflects today’s reality. Today, there are many countries acting just like Hungary, yet this European Court of Justice decision does not apply to them. I find this incredibly unfair. In order to protect our borders and avoid having to pay the daily fine of 1 million euros, we will hold talks with our European partners and find a common solution.”
While acknowledging that the judicial ruling is final and cannot be appealed, Magyar described the financial burden on Hungarian citizens as unjust.
“The decision cannot be appealed. We are looking for new rules and opportunities to avoid paying the fine,” he said. “It is unfair and disproportionate that the people of Hungary must pay a fine of 1 million euros every day. Similarly, it is a great injustice that while other member states receive these funds, Hungary has been provided with no financial resources for the wire fence it constructed to protect the external border of the European Union.”
“Exclusion only makes the far-right stronger”
Magyar strongly opposed pushback from member states—particularly pressure from Germany—to transition EU foreign policy decision-making from unanimity to qualified majority voting, defending the preservation of national sovereignty.
While rejecting the confrontational rhetoric favored by Orbán toward Brussels, Magyar emphasized the importance of compromise among sovereign states.
“I served as a diplomat within the European Union for a long time, and I know very well how difficult it is to reach a consensus among 27 countries. Yet, most of the time, this is achieved,” Magyar said. “Orbán always said, ‘We must defeat Brussels.’ I do not think that is the point. The point is to understand each other, to persuade, and not to try to defeat one another. People do not want a United States of Europe; they want a European Union based on strong member states. For this reason, I do not support transitioning to a majority voting system in many areas instead of the unanimity rule at this stage. We will negotiate and find a middle ground.”
Addressing the political rise of far-right parties across Europe, particularly in France and Germany, Magyar criticized traditional political elites for being disconnected from public anxieties and relying on political moralizing.
He warned that isolating these populist movements is counterproductive.
“I do not like labels like far-right or far-left. I do not like ideological wars,” Magyar said. “People deserve more than politically correct speeches where ideological labels are slapped on one another. I have no intention of interfering in the internal affairs of other member states, and I will not do so; on this point, I differ from Orbán. However, I observe that some countries make mistakes in combating extremist parties. In many countries, politicians do not act honestly. They do not understand people’s fears and expectations, and they do not dare to talk openly about problems and face them. They use the language of political correctness and, at the end of the day, fail to grasp reality itself. These are precisely the mistakes that certain groups exploit. Excluding these people and these parties, building a wall of isolation around them, is not a solution on its own. Exclusion only makes these forces stronger. In many countries, these mistakes have been recognized, but not yet everywhere.”
Asked if this critique applied to Germany, Magyar maintained his criticism of governing establishments.
“In many countries, the political, media, and economic elites protect their own positions and do not always address the real fears and problems of the people. But the public does not forget this. That is why what we need is honesty, honesty, and once again, honesty,” he said.
On the debate over whether conservative factions in the European Parliament should cooperate with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, Magyar shared his perspective on the future strategy of the European People’s Party (EPP), which includes his own party, Tisza.
“In the European Parliament, political forces must always seek a majority, and grand coalitions between the center-left and center-right can function. Germany and Austria are good examples of this,” Magyar said. “However, this does not always work, and that is why the CDU/CSU and the European People’s Party, which includes my party Tisza, may have to make a decision one day. In my view, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) are the natural allies of the European People’s Party. Whether they want to cooperate with the AfD is not my decision to make. However, I believe that talking to one another and listening to the other’s arguments never causes harm. What we accept from each other’s proposals is an entirely separate matter.”
“Europe will partially return to Russian energy after the war”
Defending Hungary’s decision to continue importing crude oil and natural gas from Russia despite the war in Ukraine, Magyar emphasized the country’s landlocked geography and economic constraints.
“The Hungarian people elected me as the Prime Minister of Hungary. My government’s duties include ensuring energy security, security of supply, and the lowest possible energy prices,” Magyar said. “In recent years, Hungary has become one of the poorest and most corrupt countries in the European Union. Three million people live below the poverty line. Our neighbors in the European Union must understand that Hungary is a landlocked country. We are still dependent on Russian oil, and we cannot change this overnight. We have not seen economic growth for years, and we need cheap energy to grow. Of course, we are doing everything we can to diversify our energy resources, but we cannot afford to see our companies’ competitiveness decrease further and Hungarian families’ energy poverty increase. I think Europe will partially turn back to Russian energy resources and lift sanctions when the war ends, because the competitiveness of all of Europe is at stake here. In a future state of peace, no one has an interest in maintaining a new economic and political Cold War. For this, of course, the war must first end.”
While Orbán maintained close ties with American conservative movements and received explicit support from Donald Trump, Magyar indicated that the change in leadership in Budapest would not damage relations with Washington.
“The US is Hungary’s natural ally in NATO and a highly important economic partner. What happened during the election campaign will not change this. We will maintain good relations with every American administration,” Magyar said.
Magyar criticized Orbán’s personal relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, arguing instead for a pragmatic, non-ideological approach to Moscow in the post-war era.
“I know the role of Russia in Hungarian history very well. I have not forgotten the years 1849 and 1956. In both periods, Russian troops bloodily suppressed the Hungarian freedom movement,” Magyar said. “But on the other hand, the reality is that geography does not change. We must accept this as it is. Therefore, we must develop pragmatic relations with Russia once the war against Ukraine ends. Nonetheless, it is extremely clear that Russia currently poses a security risk to all of Europe. It is unacceptable that people in Europe must live in fear of Russian sabotage or a Russian attack. That is why this war must end, and we must provide international security guarantees to Ukraine. However, Europe can only develop when normalcy returns, and Russia cannot have an interest in a new Cold War becoming permanent on the continent.”
“We can turn a new page with Ukraine”
Magyar pledged to end the hostile state-sponsored propaganda directed at Ukraine by the previous administration, emphasizing his respect for Ukraine’s territorial integrity and his personal involvement in humanitarian efforts.
“We want to build good relations with all our neighbors, not least because a Hungarian minority lives in each of them. This also applies to Ukraine,” Magyar said. “We have always stated that Ukraine is the victim in the Russia-Ukraine war and that Ukraine has the right to its territorial integrity. When the Russians bombed the largest children’s hospital in Kyiv in the summer of 2024, I immediately went to Kyiv with our volunteers and personally delivered the humanitarian aid of the Hungarian people. Right after the attack, we set off in a 30-year-old Ford Transit and reached Kyiv within 20 hours under air raids and missile bombardments. I did not see any other European politician at that bombed hospital. We are currently holding talks with Ukraine at a technical level, and we are working to reach an agreement within a few days to restore and guarantee the language, education, and cultural rights of the 100,000 Hungarians living in Ukraine. Today, we need to clarify certain matters with Ukraine regarding our minority in that country, and I hope we will achieve this in the coming days. Ethnic Hungarians there currently do not have the opportunity to use their mother tongue in their relations with official authorities. However, if we resolve these issues on the basis of mutual interest, we can turn a new page.”
Magyar cautioned that future security guarantees for Ukraine must be concrete and enforceable, unlike previous international agreements.
“In 1994, the famous Budapest Memorandum was signed, in which the US and other major powers guaranteed Ukraine’s independence and integrity. However, these promises were not kept, because empty slogans are of little use,” Magyar said. “Right now, everything is at stake in Ukraine. A large number of people are dying, and it is possible that this country will lose part of its territory. Therefore, Ukraine needs real, enforceable international guarantees.”
However, the Prime Minister reiterated that Hungary would remain militarily uninvolved in the conflict, stating that arms shipments do not constitute a genuine security guarantee.
“I do not believe that weapons are a security guarantee. Security guarantees can only be provided by the international community,” the Hungarian leader concluded. “Hungary cannot play a decisive role here; this is the work of the major powers. We can provide diplomatic and humanitarian aid, and Hungary can also provide a suitable ground for negotiations.”
Europe
EU agrees new deportation rules allowing migrant return centers outside the bloc
European Union lawmakers and member states have reached agreement on new legislation overhauling rules governing the deportation of asylum seekers.
According to Politico, the agreed text allows asylum applicants whose claims have been rejected to be sent to dedicated return centers established outside the EU.
As a key condition of the deal, measures to establish the return centers are set to be implemented immediately.
The move is said to be of particular importance to the Netherlands and Germany. Other provisions of the legislation are expected to take effect one year later.
The agreement must still receive final approval from both the EU Council and the European Parliament before it can formally enter into force.
European Commissioner for Migration Magnus Brunner said the agreement would help the EU regain control over both those arriving in the bloc and those required to leave it.
According to data from Eurostat, the proportion of migrants denied asylum in the European Union who ultimately leave the bloc remains at around 27%.
“We must give people the feeling again that we have everything under control,” Brunner said.
The new framework grants member states the authority to transfer individuals ordered to leave EU territory to return centers located outside the bloc.
Several member states are already examining the option, while human rights organizations have warned of risks of rights violations and abuse during the process.
The legislation also introduces stricter measures, including home searches, extended detention periods, entry bans, and penalties for individuals deemed security threats or those who refuse to cooperate.
French Member of the European Parliament François-Xavier Bellamy told the publication: “For years, Europe sent the worst possible message: even if you had no right to stay, there was a high likelihood that nothing would happen. That era is ending. If you do not have the right to remain in Europe, you must leave.”
The initiative, however, has faced opposition from lawmakers affiliated with liberal and left-wing groups.
Melissa Camara, a representative of the Greens group, described the agreement as “a legal arsenal serving a xenophobic ideology” and criticized both offshore centers and the detention of minors.
Marta Welander, head of the International Refugee Committee, said the new measures signaled “a troubling new era.”
Welander argued that the rules would normalize migrant raids and increase the risk of people being deported to countries where they could face persecution or torture.
According to available data, the number of migrants living within the European Union reached 64.2 million in 2025. During the same period, the foreign-born population arriving from outside the bloc increased by 2.1 million people annually.
In 2010, the European Union was home to approximately 40 million migrants.
As a result, the migrant population has increased by more than 60% over the past 15 years, while migrants’ share of the EU population has risen to 14.2%.
In December last year, US President Donald Trump said Europe faced the risk of destruction because of the migration policies pursued by European countries.
Trump had previously argued that the continent was facing a wave of migration and that, as a result, Europe was “no longer the Europe it once was.”
Europe
Anthropic invites EU cybersecurity agency to access Mythos AI hacking model
Anthropic has invited the European Union to access Mythos, its powerful AI-powered hacking tool, by sending an invitation to the bloc’s cybersecurity agency.
A European Commission official said the AI company issued the formal invitation following a meeting with the Commission in San Francisco last Thursday, adding that the EU must now establish a mechanism that would allow access to the model under appropriate security safeguards.
Bloomberg reported on Monday that ENISA, the EU’s cybersecurity agency based in Athens, would be granted access to Mythos.
European Commission spokesperson Thomas Regnier said the Commission had held “several productive meetings with Anthropic” and “welcomes the latest developments regarding potential future access.”
Anthropic unveiled Mythos in early April and warned that the model outperformed most humans in identifying and exploiting cybersecurity vulnerabilities.
The disclosure raised concerns that the model could be used to carry out large-scale attacks against critical and sensitive systems if it fell into the hands of cyber adversaries.
European officials were unable to access the cutting-edge cybersecurity AI technology for weeks, prompting urgent calls from European lawmakers and government officials to secure access.
Cybersecurity officials also urged Europe to develop its own version of the technology.
“This latest development is extremely important in helping us gain a clear understanding of the potential risks. We should not forget that Mythos is not an isolated case and that a new wave of powerful models is entering the market,” Regnier said.
An ENISA official said the agency does not currently have active access to the model but is working to make it operational.
The Commission is developing a formal action plan to respond to powerful AI hacking tools.
According to an industry official, the Commission has indicated that it wants to publish the plan before the summer break.
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