Diplomacy
Envoy Tom Barrack urges Israel to embrace Türkiye as key to regional stability
Tom Barrack, US Ambassador and Special Envoy for Syria, outlined a transformative vision for regional diplomacy at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, asserting that Israel’s most strategic path forward lies in a fundamental realignment with Türkiye.
Speaking during a panel at the forum, Barrack described a United States that has achieved energy independence and is now signaling a programmatic shift in its Middle East policy. He characterized the current American stance as telling the region, “We love you, we are with you, but we now have a new doctrine.”
Barrack identified this framework as the “Donroe Doctrine,” which he defined as an extension of “America First.” This doctrine, he explained, dictates that US concerns are primarily centered on the Western Hemisphere. Amid global “pain and restlessness,” Barrack noted that the current administration is skeptical of international frameworks. “Forget multilateral organizations,” Barrack said. “I have a boss who cannot spell the word ‘multilateral’.”
Detailing the presidential approach to diplomacy, Barrack said that if his superior faces an issue with a world leader, he simply calls them to strike a deal. Should negotiations fail, he applies tariffs. This shift indicates a move away from global multilateralism toward a landscape of bilateralism, sending a clear message to the world: “Every region must begin to fend for itself.” Barrack characterized this as a matter of parity, stating, “He who pays the piper calls the tune.”
Turning to Lebanon, Barrack noted the absence of a census since 1938 and offered an assessment of the Shiite population. He suggested that Lebanese Sunnis, who constitute the majority of the Lebanese armed forces, as well as Palestinian and Syrian refugees, would be unlikely to engage in fratricidal conflict, particularly while Israel is conducting strikes against them. This environment, he argued, only reinforces the rationale for Hezbollah’s existence as a defensive shield against Israel. He contended that the ultimate solution to such instability must be rooted in fundamental prosperity.
Barrack emphasized that when a sovereign nation like Iran supports a militia, that force cannot be eliminated through military attrition alone—a philosophy he applied globally. He argued that stability must begin with individual and familial prosperity, eventually scaling up to the tribe and the broader society. This focus on local economic well-being is the reason, Barrack claimed, that his “boss” believes certain responsibilities should be left to the region itself.
He cited the Abraham Accords as a primary answer to regional challenges and described the US involvement in Syria as an experiment alongside Türkiye, which he characterized as a vital partner. Barrack lauded Türkiye as the only “real economy” in the heart of a complex region, describing it as a true nation defined by its people, resources, and military might. While Türkiye is the second-largest supporter of NATO, Barrack noted it is also one of the alliance’s most relevant and critical engines.
Barrack addressed the shift in global logistics, noting that the “Portsmouth Strait” and the Çanakkale Strait (Dardanelles) demonstrate that traditional maritime laws face modern challenges. He argued that the alliance must find a way to merge converging perspectives through a “harmony of interests” where individuals benefit. On the subject of religion, he called for mutual respect and the freedom for all to practice their faith, observing that such a state of affairs does not currently exist. He lamented a similar division in the US between those who believe the country should have a Christian identity and other minority faiths.
During the panel, the moderator noted that diplomacy is the only viable alternative to a cycle of war and pointed out the significant decline in trade and diplomatic relations between Türkiye and Israel. When asked about Israel’s current military posturing and whether it signaled a new cycle of conflict or a failure of diplomacy, Barrack offered his personal analysis.
“This region respects only one thing: power,” Barrack said. He described President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as an “incredible leader” and stated that Benjamin Netanyahu is doing what he believes is best for his country. Barrack warned that failing to project strength results in “living in a dream world,” citing Syria as a prime example. He argued that Syria’s internal logic persists because of a “strong, powerful, and courageous leader” who has directed the country’s course, even if observers disagree with his perspectives.
Barrack characterized the heightened rhetoric between Erdoğan and Netanyahu as “merely rhetoric.” He noted that newspapers in Tel Aviv might depict a “modern Ottoman Empire” stretching from Vienna to the Maldives, while papers in Istanbul might show a “Greater Israel” with similar reach. He dismissed these as competing narratives of conquest.
Addressing energy security, Barrack stated that the “energy world” no longer views ships as the cheapest or most flexible method for transport due to inherent vulnerabilities. While ships can be diverted from the Arabian Gulf to Indonesia in the event of a conflict, pipelines lack that flexibility. However, he noted that pipelines are currently operating at only 30% capacity because the global focus has shifted from production to security. This represents a transition from a “just-in-time” logistics model to a “just-in-case” philosophy.
Barrack highlighted that critical infrastructure, including fiber optic cables, data, and resources, now flows through Türkiye. He suggested that just as Israel has aligned with Abu Dhabi and potentially Saudi Arabia, its ultimate prosperity depends on aligning with Türkiye. “Türkiye is not a country to be trifled with,” he said, adding that he expects the current hostile rhetoric to eventually dissipate.
Barrack defended the effectiveness of “benevolent monarchies” and “monarchical republics” in the Gulf, arguing that these strong leadership regimes are what currently work in the region. He contended that democratic experiments like the Arab Spring had failed, and countries targeted for human rights or democratic reforms had largely struggled.
He emphasized that Israel must align its interests with these “strong civilizations” and the Gulf. Mentioning Syria, he noted it as one of the world’s oldest civilizations where Jews, Muslims, and Christians lived side-by-side for centuries without conflict.
Barrack stated that he had shared these views with Israeli officials. While acknowledging that their current tactical moves might be correct from their perspective, he questioned the long-term strategy. He criticized the nature of current ceasefire agreements, specifically a 2024 mechanism where Israel retains the right to strike if it unilaterally deems itself under threat. He also noted that UNIFIL has spent 40 years and $10 billion in Lebanon without stopping conflict, and that war resumed shortly after the latest agreement due to side arrangements made with the Biden administration.
When asked about President Erdoğan’s proposal for an international stability force in Gaza and Israel’s rejection of the idea, Barrack offered a personal recommendation. “The smartest thing Israel can do is to encourage and embrace Türkiye’s entry into that forum,” he said.
He argued that Türkiye’s refusal to designate Hamas as a “foreign terrorist organization” is precisely what makes them a necessary mediator. He asked, “Who are the intermediaries to talk to?” He noted that while the US possesses absolute air, sea, and land dominance in the region, it does not possess “the hearts and souls of the people.”
Barrack revealed that during President Trump’s first term, the US relied on Türkiye’s unique access. He cited an instance where Trump called Erdoğan to request intervention with Hamas leaders before a peace agreement could be finalized. He credited Erdoğan, Hakan Fidan, and İbrahim Kalın with successfully bringing those leaders to the table. Barrack argued that if Türkiye had followed the US in blacklisting Hamas, such mediation would have been impossible. He concluded that including Türkiye in the Gaza process could help prevent atrocities and violations, as Türkiye “speaks the language” of the region.
Addressing Syria’s lack of retaliation against Israeli strikes, Barrack argued that the Syrian government under the El-Sharra regime has shown remarkable restraint and an openness to non-aggression. He stated that the Syrian leadership has repeatedly expressed a desire to avoid war and work toward normalization.
Barrack noted that Netanyahu’s stance that “everything changed after October 7” has rendered previous border agreements—from 1967 and 1974—irrelevant to current Israeli policy. He described Syria’s decision to stay out of the current war as a “brilliant move,” despite constant Israeli incursions against convoys.
Barrack revealed he had personally managed five meetings between Syrian Foreign Minister Assad al-Shaibani and Ron Dermer, representing Netanyahu. He stated that while the process “evaporated” after coming very close to a breakthrough, a foundation for a “fusion” remains. “The Syrians have shown tremendous patience,” Barrack said, adding that he believes a stage of non-aggression and normalization will be reached “sooner than one might think.”
India is increasing imports of Russian oil and coal as supply chain disruptions and rising prices linked to tensions involving Iran reshape global energy flows.
According to a Reuters report citing data from analytics firm Kpler, shipments from Russia to India reached record levels in June.
Kpler estimates that Russian oil deliveries to India will rise to a record 2.55 million barrels per day in June.
That would surpass both the 2.13 million barrels per day recorded in May and the previous high of 2.16 million barrels per day registered in May 2023.
Russia’s share of India’s total oil imports in June is expected to come in at just under 50%. Before the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, the figure averaged 23% during the three months preceding February 28.
India’s shift toward Russian crude followed the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran and a temporary suspension of sanctions on purchases by the administration of US President Donald Trump in an effort to increase market supply.
However, the sanctions waiver expired on June 17 and was not extended by the US Treasury Department.
Reuters noted that this could lead to a decline in purchases of Russian crude, although the outcome will depend on the willingness of Indian refiners and government officials to return to sourcing shipments from Middle Eastern suppliers.
According to Kpler forecasts, imports from Saudi Arabia are expected to remain at 349,000 barrels per day in June. That compares with an average of 832,000 barrels per day during the three months before the conflict.
A similar trend is visible in coal imports. Imports of Russian coal across all grades are expected to reach 3.16 million tonnes in June, compared with 3.27 million tonnes in May.
Both figures would rank as the second and third highest on record, respectively, behind the peak of 3.76 million tonnes registered in May last year.
Russia is also expected to overtake Australia in June to become the second-largest supplier of coal to India, the world’s second-largest coal importer after China.
According to Reuters, Russia is likely to maintain its role as one of India’s key coal suppliers. Future purchases of Russian oil, however, will depend on whether Washington moves to tighten sanctions against Moscow.
New Delhi says oil shipments will not be affected by sanctions
Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said in mid-June that the country had increased purchases of Russian oil since 2022 at Washington’s request in order to help contain global energy prices.
Jaishankar criticised US restrictions on Russian commodities and urged policymakers not to present such measures as matters of grand principle.
Sujata Sharma, a representative of India’s Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, also said in May that shipments from Russia were continuing and would do so regardless of US decisions concerning sanctions waivers.
Indian refiners reduced imports from Russia in 2025 and turned to suppliers in Saudi Arabia and Iraq amid pressure from the United States and threats of a 25% tariff on Indian goods.
However, Reuters data show that following the outbreak of war in the Middle East and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Indian companies began increasing purchases of Russian crude again in early March.
Russia’s ambassador to New Delhi, Denis Alipov, said at the end of April that Moscow was prepared to supply as much raw material as India was willing to accept.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov later confirmed that Moscow remained committed to its agreements on energy shipments to India.
Diplomacy
EU, US and China intensify competition over Africa’s strategic minerals through Lobito Corridor
Africa is becoming an increasingly intense arena of competition among China, the US and the European Union over access to strategic raw materials.
According to an analysis by German Foreign Policy, the Lobito Corridor, a rail link connecting the copper belt of Zambia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo to the Atlantic port of Lobito in Angola, is playing a pivotal role in that contest.
The infrastructure project is regarded as one of the flagship initiatives of the EU’s Global Gateway strategy and is also viewed by Washington, which is investing in the region, as a means of reducing dependence on China.
In the future, copper, cobalt, lithium and other raw materials essential for the production of batteries, electric vehicles, digital technologies and military equipment will be transported westward via this route.
The initiative builds on infrastructure originally constructed during the colonial era to facilitate the export of African raw materials.
Critics argue that the expansion of the Lobito Corridor perpetuates existing patterns of resource extraction under new conditions.
Global Gateway as a counter to the Belt and Road
The European Commission approved the Global Gateway programme in September 2021.
Under the programme, nearly €300 billion is to be invested in infrastructure projects across Africa, Asia, Oceania, Southeast Europe, and South and Central America by 2027.
The programme is widely viewed as a response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
One of its central objectives is to diversify Europe’s imports of critical raw materials, particularly by reducing dependence on supplies from China.
During a visit to China in late May 2026, German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche of the CDU underscored the importance of secure access to critical raw materials and rare earth elements. This is the area in which Germany remains most dependent on China.
Colonial-era infrastructure remains intact
One of the clearest examples is the 1,300-kilometre Lobito Corridor, which runs from the edge of the Zambia-Southern Congo copper belt to the port of Lobito in Angola.
The core infrastructure of this trade corridor was established through the Benguela Railway, which was built as early as 1902 at the height of European colonial expansion. The railway extended eastward from the port city of Lobito through what is now Angola, providing access to the mineral-rich regions of southern Congo and Zambia.
In 1931, following completion of the initial railway line, the British mining and railway company Tanganyika Concessions transferred its 99-year concession rights to Portugal’s colony of Angola.
The concession expired in 2001, after which the infrastructure, previously controlled by Portuguese authorities, was transferred to the Angolan government.
By 2030, annual copper shipments through the route are expected to reach one million metric tonnes.
Both the EU and the US are relying heavily on the Lobito Corridor in an effort to counter China’s dominant position in Africa’s raw materials sector.
Estimates indicate that roughly two-thirds of global cobalt production originates in the Congo, where Chinese companies are particularly active in mining operations.
China also accounts for approximately 75% of global cobalt processing capacity.
The colonial-era rail line leading to Lobito is intended to redirect exports of copper, cobalt and other raw materials, which have until now largely been shipped eastward via Tanzania, toward western markets, enabling processing in Europe or North America rather than China.
Europe seeks to reduce dependence on China for the green transition
In addition to copper and cobalt, the region holds substantial deposits of lithium, coltan, nickel and rare earth elements, giving it significant economic importance.
These materials are used in electric vehicle batteries, stationary energy storage systems and alloys required for military aircraft production.
Until now, the EU has sourced much of these materials from China. Strategic investment in a new logistics hub in Luau, Angola, located along the Lobito Corridor, is intended to reduce that dependence.
The railway line along the corridor is already operated by a European consortium.
The consortium includes Swiss commodities trader Trafigura, Portuguese construction group Mota-Engil and Belgian rail company Vecturis.
However, the majority of the mines remain under Chinese control. In the Congo, 24 of the country’s 33 cobalt-exporting companies are Chinese-backed.
The Lobito Corridor is being developed through an EU-US partnership
EU efforts to secure influence over the Lobito Corridor are advancing in parallel with similar initiatives by the United States.
In early 2022, the US signed a memorandum of understanding with the EU and other G7 members to mobilise more than $600 billion for infrastructure projects worldwide over the following five years as part of the G7’s Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII).
The Lobito Corridor is one of five key trade, transit and development corridors in Southern Africa designed to improve transport efficiency.
During the administration of President Joe Biden, financing for the Lobito Corridor was launched under the G7’s PGII framework as a flagship project in cooperation with the Global Gateway initiative.
The EU also regards the expansion of the Lobito Corridor as a critical project and has committed more than €2 billion in funding.
That support could increase further. The next EU budget cycle beginning in 2028 envisages nearly doubling spending on development and external assistance, from €108 billion to €200 billion.
EU officials present the strategy as an effort to offer a more comprehensive approach to infrastructure financing than China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
‘America First’ in Africa
The US has pledged hundreds of millions of dollars for the expansion of the Lobito Corridor.
In the final quarter of 2025 alone, it provided $553 million in loans for the project’s expansion.
An additional $200 million in support came from the Development Bank of Southern Africa.
Unlike the Biden administration, which frequently described the initiative as development assistance, the second Trump administration openly characterises the project as an effort to weaken China’s influence, strengthen US control over critical raw materials and diversify supply chains.
For example, Frank Garcia, a former naval officer appointed in late May as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, praised the Trump administration’s continuing engagement on the continent.
Highlighting the Lobito Corridor in particular, Garcia said the project aligns key US interests in Africa with the “America First” approach.
Germany in Africa for the energy transition
Last autumn, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier travelled several kilometres on the newly restored railway line along the Lobito Corridor and described it as “a strategic infrastructure project of enormous economic importance.”
The German politician added: “Of course, this infrastructure connection also creates investment opportunities for European and German companies along its route.”
Portuguese construction company MCA is currently building solar energy parks in 60 municipalities across Angola at a cost of just under €1.29 billion.
The client is Angola’s Energy Ministry, while the German government is supporting the project through export credit guarantees.
Should Angola fail to meet its payment obligations, Germany would step in. A total of 95% of the project value is guaranteed by the Federal Republic of Germany.
In return, Angola agreed to allow German companies to participate in the project. For example, the battery storage system is being supplied by SMA Solar Technology, based in Niestetal near Kassel.
German solar technology provider Gantner Instruments Environment Solutions is supplying the digital control system.
Critics of the Lobito Corridor expansion warn that the project will primarily benefit the EU and the US.
In their view, the initiative promotes the export of African raw materials rather than strengthening intra-African trade.
Although the EU presents these measures as a development project aligned with African interests, critics argue that they ultimately represent a continuation of Western exploitation of African resources.
The European Union is insisting that natural gas delivered to member states via Türkiye under new supply agreements must not be of Russian origin.
German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche said after an official visit to Ankara that “Türkiye understands that the EU attaches great importance to ending the supply of raw materials originating from Russia and accepts this reality.”
Reiche added that Turkish officials had made it clear that replacing supplies from Russia could not be achieved overnight, either economically or in terms of available alternative sources.
As of June 17, a ban on pipeline natural gas imports from Russia under short-term contracts signed more than a year ago entered into force across the European Union.
The measure was approved by the Council of the European Union and the European Parliament at the end of last year. In January 2025, EU member states also voted to phase out Russian gas completely by 2027. Under that decision, member states are required to verify the origin of gas supplies before authorizing deliveries.
Meanwhile, Swiss-based company Nord Stream 2 AG, the operator of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, has launched legal action challenging the regulation imposing the ban on Russian gas imports.
Türkiye, for its part, is continuing negotiations with Gazprom on natural gas supplies for the period after 2026, as existing contracts are approaching expiration.
Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar previously said the parties had yet to reach agreement on potential shipment volumes and the duration of any new contracts.
In December 2025, Ankara extended by one year two agreements with Gazprom covering gas deliveries through the TurkStream and Blue Stream pipelines.
Türkiye is seeking to reduce Russia’s share of its gas supply mix. Russia’s share of Türkiye’s natural gas imports has already fallen below 40%.
As part of its energy diversification strategy, Ankara plans to replace part of Russian gas imports with supplies from the United States and Central Asia.
Bayraktar previously said that despite US calls to abandon Russian energy resources, Türkiye would continue purchasing natural gas from Russia.
“We cannot tell our citizens there is no gas available. We have agreements with Russia. Winter is approaching. We need gas from Russia, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan,” Bayraktar said.
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