Diplomacy
Envoy Tom Barrack urges Israel to embrace Türkiye as key to regional stability
Tom Barrack, US Ambassador and Special Envoy for Syria, outlined a transformative vision for regional diplomacy at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, asserting that Israel’s most strategic path forward lies in a fundamental realignment with Türkiye.
Speaking during a panel at the forum, Barrack described a United States that has achieved energy independence and is now signaling a programmatic shift in its Middle East policy. He characterized the current American stance as telling the region, “We love you, we are with you, but we now have a new doctrine.”
Barrack identified this framework as the “Donroe Doctrine,” which he defined as an extension of “America First.” This doctrine, he explained, dictates that US concerns are primarily centered on the Western Hemisphere. Amid global “pain and restlessness,” Barrack noted that the current administration is skeptical of international frameworks. “Forget multilateral organizations,” Barrack said. “I have a boss who cannot spell the word ‘multilateral’.”
Detailing the presidential approach to diplomacy, Barrack said that if his superior faces an issue with a world leader, he simply calls them to strike a deal. Should negotiations fail, he applies tariffs. This shift indicates a move away from global multilateralism toward a landscape of bilateralism, sending a clear message to the world: “Every region must begin to fend for itself.” Barrack characterized this as a matter of parity, stating, “He who pays the piper calls the tune.”
Turning to Lebanon, Barrack noted the absence of a census since 1938 and offered an assessment of the Shiite population. He suggested that Lebanese Sunnis, who constitute the majority of the Lebanese armed forces, as well as Palestinian and Syrian refugees, would be unlikely to engage in fratricidal conflict, particularly while Israel is conducting strikes against them. This environment, he argued, only reinforces the rationale for Hezbollah’s existence as a defensive shield against Israel. He contended that the ultimate solution to such instability must be rooted in fundamental prosperity.
Barrack emphasized that when a sovereign nation like Iran supports a militia, that force cannot be eliminated through military attrition alone—a philosophy he applied globally. He argued that stability must begin with individual and familial prosperity, eventually scaling up to the tribe and the broader society. This focus on local economic well-being is the reason, Barrack claimed, that his “boss” believes certain responsibilities should be left to the region itself.
He cited the Abraham Accords as a primary answer to regional challenges and described the US involvement in Syria as an experiment alongside Türkiye, which he characterized as a vital partner. Barrack lauded Türkiye as the only “real economy” in the heart of a complex region, describing it as a true nation defined by its people, resources, and military might. While Türkiye is the second-largest supporter of NATO, Barrack noted it is also one of the alliance’s most relevant and critical engines.
Barrack addressed the shift in global logistics, noting that the “Portsmouth Strait” and the Çanakkale Strait (Dardanelles) demonstrate that traditional maritime laws face modern challenges. He argued that the alliance must find a way to merge converging perspectives through a “harmony of interests” where individuals benefit. On the subject of religion, he called for mutual respect and the freedom for all to practice their faith, observing that such a state of affairs does not currently exist. He lamented a similar division in the US between those who believe the country should have a Christian identity and other minority faiths.
During the panel, the moderator noted that diplomacy is the only viable alternative to a cycle of war and pointed out the significant decline in trade and diplomatic relations between Türkiye and Israel. When asked about Israel’s current military posturing and whether it signaled a new cycle of conflict or a failure of diplomacy, Barrack offered his personal analysis.
“This region respects only one thing: power,” Barrack said. He described President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as an “incredible leader” and stated that Benjamin Netanyahu is doing what he believes is best for his country. Barrack warned that failing to project strength results in “living in a dream world,” citing Syria as a prime example. He argued that Syria’s internal logic persists because of a “strong, powerful, and courageous leader” who has directed the country’s course, even if observers disagree with his perspectives.
Barrack characterized the heightened rhetoric between Erdoğan and Netanyahu as “merely rhetoric.” He noted that newspapers in Tel Aviv might depict a “modern Ottoman Empire” stretching from Vienna to the Maldives, while papers in Istanbul might show a “Greater Israel” with similar reach. He dismissed these as competing narratives of conquest.
Addressing energy security, Barrack stated that the “energy world” no longer views ships as the cheapest or most flexible method for transport due to inherent vulnerabilities. While ships can be diverted from the Arabian Gulf to Indonesia in the event of a conflict, pipelines lack that flexibility. However, he noted that pipelines are currently operating at only 30% capacity because the global focus has shifted from production to security. This represents a transition from a “just-in-time” logistics model to a “just-in-case” philosophy.
Barrack highlighted that critical infrastructure, including fiber optic cables, data, and resources, now flows through Türkiye. He suggested that just as Israel has aligned with Abu Dhabi and potentially Saudi Arabia, its ultimate prosperity depends on aligning with Türkiye. “Türkiye is not a country to be trifled with,” he said, adding that he expects the current hostile rhetoric to eventually dissipate.
Barrack defended the effectiveness of “benevolent monarchies” and “monarchical republics” in the Gulf, arguing that these strong leadership regimes are what currently work in the region. He contended that democratic experiments like the Arab Spring had failed, and countries targeted for human rights or democratic reforms had largely struggled.
He emphasized that Israel must align its interests with these “strong civilizations” and the Gulf. Mentioning Syria, he noted it as one of the world’s oldest civilizations where Jews, Muslims, and Christians lived side-by-side for centuries without conflict.
Barrack stated that he had shared these views with Israeli officials. While acknowledging that their current tactical moves might be correct from their perspective, he questioned the long-term strategy. He criticized the nature of current ceasefire agreements, specifically a 2024 mechanism where Israel retains the right to strike if it unilaterally deems itself under threat. He also noted that UNIFIL has spent 40 years and $10 billion in Lebanon without stopping conflict, and that war resumed shortly after the latest agreement due to side arrangements made with the Biden administration.
When asked about President Erdoğan’s proposal for an international stability force in Gaza and Israel’s rejection of the idea, Barrack offered a personal recommendation. “The smartest thing Israel can do is to encourage and embrace Türkiye’s entry into that forum,” he said.
He argued that Türkiye’s refusal to designate Hamas as a “foreign terrorist organization” is precisely what makes them a necessary mediator. He asked, “Who are the intermediaries to talk to?” He noted that while the US possesses absolute air, sea, and land dominance in the region, it does not possess “the hearts and souls of the people.”
Barrack revealed that during President Trump’s first term, the US relied on Türkiye’s unique access. He cited an instance where Trump called Erdoğan to request intervention with Hamas leaders before a peace agreement could be finalized. He credited Erdoğan, Hakan Fidan, and İbrahim Kalın with successfully bringing those leaders to the table. Barrack argued that if Türkiye had followed the US in blacklisting Hamas, such mediation would have been impossible. He concluded that including Türkiye in the Gaza process could help prevent atrocities and violations, as Türkiye “speaks the language” of the region.
Addressing Syria’s lack of retaliation against Israeli strikes, Barrack argued that the Syrian government under the El-Sharra regime has shown remarkable restraint and an openness to non-aggression. He stated that the Syrian leadership has repeatedly expressed a desire to avoid war and work toward normalization.
Barrack noted that Netanyahu’s stance that “everything changed after October 7” has rendered previous border agreements—from 1967 and 1974—irrelevant to current Israeli policy. He described Syria’s decision to stay out of the current war as a “brilliant move,” despite constant Israeli incursions against convoys.
Barrack revealed he had personally managed five meetings between Syrian Foreign Minister Assad al-Shaibani and Ron Dermer, representing Netanyahu. He stated that while the process “evaporated” after coming very close to a breakthrough, a foundation for a “fusion” remains. “The Syrians have shown tremendous patience,” Barrack said, adding that he believes a stage of non-aggression and normalization will be reached “sooner than one might think.”
Diplomacy
CSTO strips Armenia of voting rights over two-year budget debt
Members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) have stripped Armenia of its voting rights and its ability to appoint representatives to official positions due to a two-year debt to the organization’s budget.
Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, “This decision was taken based on the organization’s charter due to Armenia’s failure to fulfil its obligations for several years.”
Prior to the CSTO leaders’ summit in Moscow, Peskov had stated that member states would “react” to the Caucasus country’s non-participation in the organization’s activities.
Ahead of the Moscow summit, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said his country’s “interest has run out” regarding the CSTO. Through his press spokesperson, he announced that he would travel to Türkiye on 11 November to attend the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31) instead of going to Russia.
The CSTO leaders’ meeting was held with the participation of Russian President Vladimir Putin alongside the leaders of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.
The leaders jointly took the decision to revoke Armenia’s voting rights.
At the conclusion of the meeting, the participants also signed a joint declaration.
The declaration stated: “We confirm our unconditional commitment to the goals set out in the CSTO treaty and charter towards creating favourable and stable conditions for the comprehensive development of member states.”
Pashinyan had frozen Yerevan’s de facto participation in the CSTO in February 2024, citing the organization’s failure to aid the Armenian side during the armed clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023.
Having referred to the CSTO as a “soap-bubble alliance” since that time, Pashinyan accused the organization’s members of “planning war” together with Baku. He stated that Armenia would not return to active work within the alliance at least “over the next five years”, adding that he would welcome it if the country were expelled from membership.
Relations between Armenia and Russia grew tense once again in the spring of 2026, after Yerevan moved closer to the European Union (EU) and the Kremlin responded with a trade war.
In May, Pashinyan refused to travel to Moscow to attend the Victory Day parade and declared that he did not support Russia on the Ukraine issue.
In response, Putin called on Yerevan to determine its foreign policy course through a referendum, advising Armenian authorities not to forget the fate of Ukraine.
Diplomacy
US urges Russia to draft proposals for new European security pact
The US administration has reportedly called on Russia to submit proposals for a prospective security treaty with Europe that would include measures to ease tensions between European nations and Moscow.
According to a report by news site Axios citing sources familiar with the matter, the US side conveyed the request during trilateral negotiations held in Abu Dhabi.
During the talks, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner suggested that the Russian delegation prepare a fresh proposal outlining its security concerns and demands.
The US delegation reportedly asked that this proposal clarify what kind of “symmetrical steps” Moscow is prepared to take to de-escalate tensions and “provide non-aggression guarantees to Europe”.
Another source familiar with the White House’s approach said the Trump administration aims to run the processes for a new European security architecture and a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine simultaneously.
Under this plan, the actual implementation of the security understandings would take effect only after the signing of an accord ending the conflict in Ukraine.
Assessing the approach to the process, the source said: “[Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelenskyy will not agree to any compromise without knowing what will happen next regarding security guarantees. Putin also wants to see the exact same picture clearly. This is precisely why the security portfolio is so decisive.”
The same official noted that the US will not reach a security agreement with Russia without the support of Europe and Ukraine, adding that Washington will not grant Moscow veto power over European security decisions.
Vladimir Medinsky, aide to the Russian president and head of the delegation in the Ukraine negotiations, previously stated that the fundamental objective was building a comprehensive new security system in Europe.
Medinsky noted that the structure in question must take on the character of “a fair, new, modern Yalta and Potsdam that carries the spirit of Helsinki 1975 and responds to contemporary realities”.
The Russian official argued that if such a system were established, peace lasting for decades, or even centuries, could be secured in Europe.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also announced that Moscow possesses its own position paper on how a new security architecture in Eurasia should take shape.
Lavrov stated that Russia hopes the Washington administration will “maintain its determination to pursue dialogue aimed at achieving an honest balance of interests where nobody’s security is impaired”.
Russian authorities have repeatedly stated that the country has no intention of attacking Europe.
Pointing out that they have no reason to fight NATO countries, Russian President Vladimir Putin previously said: “We have no interest whatsoever, neither geopolitical nor economic, political nor military.”
In a statement in October, Putin said Russia has no plans to attack anyone “in 2029, in 2030, or in the year 2050”.
On the other hand, Putin claimed that “all NATO countries are fighting Russia” and stated that the Russian military is currently the most combat-ready armed force in the world.
Following the contacts in Abu Dhabi, Kushner announced that he and Witkoff would travel to Moscow.
Explaining that they plan to meet Putin during the visit to discuss European participation in negotiations aimed at resolving the conflict, Kushner argued that the parties could make “far greater progress” if the Russian leader consents to such involvement.
Yury Ushakov, aide to the Russian president, stated that the US special envoys will arrive in Moscow on 12 November, with the planned meeting with the Russian president scheduled for the first half of the day.
Diplomacy
Vance leads indirect push for US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks
US Vice-President JD Vance has been personally involved over the past two weeks in indirect talks with Iran aimed at securing a fresh ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations.
According to Axios, Vance’s intense engagement indicates that he has taken it upon himself to extract the US from the conflict, which he views as responsible for the Republican Party’s shocking losses in this week’s elections.
This elevates the latest round of indirect talks to the highest echelons of the administration.
US officials and regional sources state that Trump is currently willing to let diplomatic efforts run their course to see whether any agreement is achievable.
Asked by reporters on Friday what his message was to Iran, Trump said, “We are talking to them.”
According to sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Vance speaks almost daily with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and other mediators regarding the negotiations with Iran.
White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, are also involved in the process.
Sources say Vance and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators have been discussing the possibility of holding a working-level technical meeting between the US and Iran in the coming days, though this has not yet materialized.
Before the war began in late February, Vance was among the most sceptical voices in Trump’s inner circle on the issue, advocating instead for a diplomatic solution.
In April, he led the US negotiating delegation at the Iran summit held in Islamabad and was personally involved in the talks that yielded a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran in June.
Vance subsequently headed the US delegation during a series of direct talks with Iran in Switzerland.
Two weeks ago, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing that direct negotiations resume.
Rezaei is one of the closest advisers to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.
Iranian officials noted that Vance’s letter generated positive momentum toward restarting talks.
On Wednesday, Vance said the war was the primary reason for the Republicans’ repudiation at the polls.
Sources involved in mediation efforts report that while progress is being made, the process is moving very slowly.
On Friday evening, the prime minister of Qatar said, “Over the past few weeks, we worked with our colleagues in the US administration who have a sincere intention to contain the situation and de-escalate. Thanks to them and the voices of reason in Tehran, we prevented the situation from spinning out of control.”
The prime minister added that discussions with the Trump administration continued following the midterm elections, though they were not as active as in previous days “because there are other matters.”
Nevertheless, he noted that the US intention to find a diplomatic resolution “remains ongoing” and emphasized that an agreement is possible.
On Friday morning, Trump and the Emir of Qatar discussed Qatari efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran as part of an accord.
According to a statement from his office, Sheikh Tamim emphasized the necessity of “pursuing dialogue and diplomatic channels to resolve differences, prevent the region from facing further escalation, and ensure freedom of maritime navigation as well as the security of energy supplies.”
Separately, Trump confirmed on Friday that the US military conducted a strike on an anti-aircraft missile launcher on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after it fired a missile at a US fighter jet.
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