US President Donald Trump is threatening the EU with a trade war unless it buys more US oil and gas. However, while Brussels has signaled that it is open to the idea, it lacks purchasing power, and European countries are importing record amounts of cheaper liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia.
According to the Financial Times (FT), the question of whether Europe can act as a bloc and buy more American fuel is creating significant uncertainty over transatlantic relations after the US president took office on Monday.
In a post on social media last month, Trump said: “Buy our oil and gas on a large scale. Otherwise, every road is TARIFF!!!” he warned.
EU still sceptical about American LNG
Shortly after her re-election, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also backed the idea, asking, “Why not replace [Russian gas] with American LNG?”
However, officials and analysts told the FT that the EU’s executive branch is not a gas buyer and cannot do more than inform Trump that European companies are interested in American LNG.
The bloc had pledged to buy more LNG from the US in 2022. Officials say there are no immediate plans to update this pledge. “What conditions do we have to put forward for this to happen? We’re not going to review everything on 21 January,” he said.
American lobby group pushes for bypassing Russia
The underlying problem, according to the FT, is that the EU cannot give up cheaper Russian fossil fuels. Last year, EU companies imported record amounts of LNG from that country.
“This LNG should come from the US,” said Mike Sommers, CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, the largest US oil and gas lobby group.
Fearing a supply crunch after Moscow’s gradual shutdown of pipeline gas to Europe, the EU has refrained from banning LNG, as it did with Russian coal, or imposing a price ceiling on tanker-shipped Russian LNG, as it did with Russian oil.
Biden administration refrained from putting Yamal on the sanctions list
Instead, the bloc set an indicative target to completely phase out all Russian fossil fuels by 2027 and allowed governments to ban the country’s exporters from using EU gas infrastructure.
Some ministers complained that this was not enough to force companies to break existing contracts. According to EU diplomats involved in the negotiations, LNG could be included in a new round of sanctions, but this would require the unanimous approval of all 27 member states, which Hungary and Slovakia are likely to oppose.
The Joe Biden administration added two small Russian LNG facilities to the US sanctions list in January but refrained from including Yamal, a large terminal supplying Europe and other parts of the world.
As one of his first acts in office, Trump pledged to lift the freeze on new LNG export capacity imposed by the previous administration.
The EU also has the opportunity to import more from regasification terminals, which convert the liquefied fuel shipped back into gas.
Energy costs are still the biggest issue
However, price sensitivity is a significant problem, according to the FT. At the same time as appeasing Trump, the EU is struggling to protect its industries and reduce high energy prices, especially in Germany, Europe’s largest economy.
Gas prices in the EU are more than three times higher than in the US and remain stubbornly high at more than twice the level before the Ukraine war.
“The price issue is a sensitive and decisive one,” said a senior EU official.