According to a BBC report, during the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (Ramstein format) meeting held in Brussels on April 11, NATO countries and their allies decided to provide a record level of aid to Kyiv, totaling over €21 billion.

This support aims to strengthen Ukraine’s defense capabilities.

Germany will provide the largest portion of this amount, €11 billion, while Britain will contribute approximately €5.2 billion.

According to statements by German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, Berlin’s upcoming aid to Kyiv includes 100,000 artillery shells, 25 armored combat vehicles, 15 main battle tanks, 100 ground surveillance radar stations, and 120 portable air defense missile systems.

Berlin will also deliver four IRIS-T air defense systems with 300 missiles to Ukraine.

In addition, a €523 million package jointly prepared by Britain and Norway will supply radars, anti-tank mines, repair military equipment, and purchase hundreds of thousands of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

Pistorius stated, “Ukraine needs a strong army, but only in this way can negotiations lead to a fair and lasting peace.”

The minister added, “Russia must understand that Ukraine can continue the war, and we will support Ukraine in this regard.”

British Defense Secretary John Healey, as reported by Politico, stated in his speech that he accused Russia of disrupting the peace initiatives proposed by the US and approved by Kyiv a month ago.

Healey claimed, “Putin claims he wants peace, but his troops continue to attack Ukraine, targeting both military objectives and civilian infrastructure.”

Defense ministry representatives from 50 countries attended the 27th meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, organized at the call of Berlin and London.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth attended the meeting via video conference and thanked the allies for their work.

The Ukraine Defense Contact Group, informally known as the Ramstein format, first met in April 2022 at the US-owned Ramstein Air Base in Germany.

Since then, the regular meetings have become a key international platform for coordinating aid to Ukraine.

The group’s members include NATO countries, European Union members, and Ukraine’s other international partners.

The format’s main objectives include ensuring the supply of weapons, training Ukrainian soldiers, discussing the country’s current and future defense needs, and developing long-term support strategies in the war against Russia.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that Russia and the US conducted a prisoner exchange in Abu Dhabi on April 10, citing an unnamed CIA official.

According to the report, Moscow released Ksenia Karelina, a US and Russian citizen sentenced to 12 years in prison for treason.

The US, in turn, released Artur Petrov, who holds both Russian and German citizenship.

Petrov was accused of circumventing sanctions by supplying US-made microelectronic products to Russia.

Karelina’s lawyer, Mikhail Mushailov, confirmed to RBC that his client had been released and had contacted her family.

The decision regarding Karelina was made last August. The young woman was detained last February in Yekaterinburg, where she had come from Los Angeles to visit relatives.

The Federal Security Service (FSB) stated that Karelina was accused of providing financial assistance to the Ukrainian army.

According to the FSB, Karelina “on her own initiative carried out activities to collect funds for the benefit of one of the Ukrainian organizations” from February 2022, and these funds were later used for the needs of the Ukrainian army. The donation in question was stated to be $51.8.

Meanwhile, Artur Petrov was detained in Southern Cyprus in August 2023 at the request of the US.

According to the US Department of Justice, Petrov purchased microelectronic products from the US through shell companies and sent them to Russia.

Petrov faced 11 charges, including smuggling, export control violations, and money laundering.

According to WSJ, CIA Director John Ratcliffe and an unnamed senior intelligence official from the Russian side participated in the negotiations.

Ratcliffe was present at the Abu Dhabi Airport where the exchange took place.

Ratcliffe stated, “Today, President Trump brought home another US citizen who was illegally detained in Russia. I am proud of the CIA personnel who worked tirelessly, and we are grateful to the UAE government.”

According to WSJ, Ratcliffe had several phone conversations with FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov and Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Director Sergey Naryshkin after being appointed as CIA Director.

The report stated that Bortnikov was involved in the negotiations between Russia and the West last summer, which resulted in a comprehensive prisoner exchange that also led to the release of WSJ reporter Evan Gershkovich.

This was the second prisoner exchange between Moscow and Washington since Donald Trump returned to the White House.

In mid-February, Alexander Vinnik, who was detained in the US for allegedly laundering between $4 billion and $9 billion through the BTC-e exchange, was extradited to Russia.

Vinnik had admitted to some of the charges and made a deal with the prosecution; his sentence was expected to be handed down in the summer of 2025, but the case was later closed.

In Russia, Vinnik was charged in absentia in 2018 with cyber fraud involving 750 million rubles. Moscow was seeking Vinnik’s extradition.

In return, Russia released Marc Fogel, an American teacher and former US Embassy employee, who was charged with drug trafficking and possession.

Fogel argued that the marijuana he brought with him was for medical purposes (to relieve pain after spinal surgery) and that he had a doctor’s prescription.

Fogel was sentenced to 14 years in prison in 2022.

With investors seeking safe havens for investment for the first time in years, US Treasury bonds face serious competition from global funds.

The yields on benchmark 10-year Treasury bonds had fallen by approximately 40 basis points this year. With US President Donald Trump’s barrage of tariffs, which are thought to increase the risk of recession, they briefly fell below 4% on Monday.

According to Bloomberg, similar rates have risen in both Europe and Japan. In Germany, the 10-year bond rose to 2.61%, reflecting expectations that bond issuance will increase as the government increases defense spending.

Meanwhile, the rate on 10-year Japanese bonds has also risen after years around zero, and is currently around 1.25% as investors prepare for tighter monetary policy.

While both are still well below US bond yields, they are at levels that make them appear more attractive than Treasury bonds for European and Japanese investors who are protected from dollar risk when buying US securities.

This may convince investors to shift to their own markets, where the policy outlook is more stable.

“The idea that the administration’s various policies could undermine foreign demand for Treasury bonds is gaining traction,” said Matthew Raskin, head of US interest rates research at Deutsche Bank.

Deutsche Bank also warned of a “confidence crisis” in the dollar, while UBS Group believes the euro would get a “shot in the arm” in its status as a global reserve currency.

On the other hand, some believe this change should be viewed with skepticism. The German government bond, Bund, looked similarly attractive in mid-2023, but an aggressive sell-off in Treasury bonds pushed 10-year US yields to 5%, eroding Europe’s yield advantage.

If tariffs revive inflation, this could push US yields higher again.

But according to Bloomberg, even the discussion of such a shift in flows shows that investors are preparing for Europe to play a bigger role in global markets as competition for capital intensifies.

This could lead to greater fragility in the US Treasury market, which has been under attack from buyers in recent years amid concerns that supply could increase.

One of the early tests will take place on Tuesday, when the US government sells $58 billion of three-year bonds, followed by the sale of 10- and 30-year bonds later this week.

Traditionally, the US budget deficit has been financed in part by a wave of capital flowing into Treasury bonds from around the world.

According to Barclays’ analysis of fund flow data, foreign ownership of US Treasury bonds accounts for about a third of the market, and the foreign sector was the largest source of US bond demand last year.

This reflected net purchases of $910 billion, about half of which were in Treasury bonds.

According to US government data, the vast majority of foreign Treasury assets are in longer maturities. Ales Koutny, international interest rates manager at Vanguard, said this means that as foreign demand decreases, it could steepen the US yield curve, meaning long-term rates will rise relative to short-term rates.

An early indication of how investors are navigating global yield shifts may emerge in a few days. The new fiscal year has just begun in Japan, and this is a period when companies there typically review their allocation strategies.

Japan is a key player in global bond markets due to the Bank of Japan’s decades-long ultra-low interest rate policy, which has pushed investors to seek yield.

Germany initiated the change in early March, announcing plans to allocate hundreds of billions of euros for defense and infrastructure. Bund yields rose as investors priced in bond issuance to cover the spending.

The European Union’s large pool of savings surplus means it is the largest foreign holder of US public debt, while also playing a large role in US corporate finance.

If European countries meaningfully increase their investments, these savings could be kept at home.