Diplomacy
Europe loses LNG cargoes to Asia as Middle East conflict tightens supply
Europe is losing liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes to Asia as conflict in the Middle East disrupts Qatari facilities and drives prices higher.
Italy, Poland and Belgium are scrambling to secure alternative supply sources in an increasingly competitive market.
European buyers are being priced out of the global LNG market as Asian importers outbid them for limited cargoes.
Shipping data show multiple tankers altering course mid-voyage, with roughly a dozen Atlantic shipments already redirected.
The competition for LNG is escalating as the Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy transit chokepoint responsible for around 20% of global LNG supply, remains closed by Iranian authorities in retaliation for missile strikes by the US and Israel about a month ago.
Taiwan says it has 11 days of gas reserves
Supply disruptions intensified after attacks on Qatar’s Ras Laffan facilities forced the world’s largest LNG producer to declare force majeure on contracts with Belgium, Italy and Poland on Tuesday.
Europe accounts for only a small share of supply flowing through this bottleneck and is largely focused on managing rising prices and easing LNG shortages in several countries. By contrast, Asian economies rely on the Strait of Hormuz for roughly 80% of their energy imports.
Taiwan, a key semiconductor producer, said on Tuesday, March 24, that it has enough gas reserves to last 11 days.
According to data from intelligence firm Kpler, the number of LNG tankers changing course has continued to rise since the outbreak of war in the Middle East on February 28. The latest Qatari cargoes are expected to reach the UK and Italy by March 27.
Laura Page, head of LNG and gas at Kpler, said in remarks to Euronews:
“We have 11 LNG cargoes confirmed to have been redirected from Europe to Asia, as well as two redirected from Europe to Egypt and one from Europe to Türkiye.”
The disruption has pushed global LNG prices higher at a critical moment as Europe enters its gas storage replenishment season, raising concerns that Atlantic supply will tighten further.
Page said: “Fortunately, the winter heating season is ending, so gas demand will decline. However, the crisis poses significant risks for Europe during the upcoming storage refill season and could leave the region vulnerable next winter if storage levels fail to recover sufficiently.”
Gas benchmark rises above 60 euros intraday
Europe’s benchmark wholesale gas price, the Dutch TTF, closed Tuesday at around 53–54 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh), after rising above 60 euros earlier in the day.
Although slightly below midweek peaks, prices remain well above pre-conflict levels.
Asian buyers are currently paying about $1–3 per MMBtu more than their European counterparts for spot LNG, based on the JKM benchmark. This relatively small but decisive premium is reshaping global trade flows.
Higher returns are incentivising traders to divert flexible cargoes eastward, where shipping economics are more attractive, leaving Europe competing for constrained LNG supply.
Italy turns to Algeria for diversification
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visited Algeria on Wednesday as Rome seeks to offset disrupted Qatari supplies, which account for roughly 30% of the country’s annual gas demand.
A study published Tuesday by think tank ECCO suggests Italy could replace Qatari LNG within a year through renewable energy expansion and energy efficiency measures.
ECCO argues that installing 10 gigawatts of new renewable capacity annually could reduce gas consumption by 2.5 billion cubic metres, equivalent to 40% of Qatari imports.
Additional measures include improving energy efficiency across residential, commercial and industrial sectors, as well as electrification. However, these steps would still rely on Algerian gas to bridge the remaining gap.
The study states: “For the remaining 15%, equivalent to 1 billion cubic metres annually out of a total 6.4 billion cubic metres, the government could utilise existing gas infrastructure, particularly pipelines linking Italy to Algeria.”
Belgium and Poland expect limited impact
In Belgium, supply disruptions from Qatar are expected to be relatively modest, affecting around 8% of LNG imports via the Zeebrugge terminal.
The country’s transmission operator Fluxys said it is actively seeking alternative supplies and expects shipments from the US, Nigeria and Russia.
However, imports from Russia are scheduled to be fully phased out by 2027, narrowing long-term options.
Poland’s oil and gas company Orlen said the suspension of some LNG production by QatarEnergy, which accounts for less than 10% of its demand in 2025, does not pose a threat to national gas security.
Orlen highlighted its diversified supply portfolio and flexible trading tools as key mechanisms for offsetting potential supply losses.
US issues trade ultimatum to EU
Meanwhile, the US has renewed pressure on the European Union, leveraging rising energy prices and potential supply shortages.
US Ambassador to Europe Andrew Puzder warned that if EU lawmakers reject the terms of the EU-US trade agreement due to be voted on today, the bloc could risk losing “favourable access” to LNG supplies from across the Atlantic.
Puzder told the Financial Times:
“If they don’t accept the deal, I don’t know what will happen on energy. I think the US will want to continue doing business with Europe, but the terms may not be as favourable. The environment certainly won’t be as favourable. And there are other buyers in the market.”
Under the agreement expected to be signed soon, the EU27 is projected to purchase around $250 billion annually in oil, gas and nuclear energy from the US by 2028, with total purchases reaching approximately $750 billion.
Diplomacy
CSTO strips Armenia of voting rights over two-year budget debt
Members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) have stripped Armenia of its voting rights and its ability to appoint representatives to official positions due to a two-year debt to the organization’s budget.
Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, “This decision was taken based on the organization’s charter due to Armenia’s failure to fulfil its obligations for several years.”
Prior to the CSTO leaders’ summit in Moscow, Peskov had stated that member states would “react” to the Caucasus country’s non-participation in the organization’s activities.
Ahead of the Moscow summit, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said his country’s “interest has run out” regarding the CSTO. Through his press spokesperson, he announced that he would travel to Türkiye on 11 November to attend the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31) instead of going to Russia.
The CSTO leaders’ meeting was held with the participation of Russian President Vladimir Putin alongside the leaders of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.
The leaders jointly took the decision to revoke Armenia’s voting rights.
At the conclusion of the meeting, the participants also signed a joint declaration.
The declaration stated: “We confirm our unconditional commitment to the goals set out in the CSTO treaty and charter towards creating favourable and stable conditions for the comprehensive development of member states.”
Pashinyan had frozen Yerevan’s de facto participation in the CSTO in February 2024, citing the organization’s failure to aid the Armenian side during the armed clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023.
Having referred to the CSTO as a “soap-bubble alliance” since that time, Pashinyan accused the organization’s members of “planning war” together with Baku. He stated that Armenia would not return to active work within the alliance at least “over the next five years”, adding that he would welcome it if the country were expelled from membership.
Relations between Armenia and Russia grew tense once again in the spring of 2026, after Yerevan moved closer to the European Union (EU) and the Kremlin responded with a trade war.
In May, Pashinyan refused to travel to Moscow to attend the Victory Day parade and declared that he did not support Russia on the Ukraine issue.
In response, Putin called on Yerevan to determine its foreign policy course through a referendum, advising Armenian authorities not to forget the fate of Ukraine.
Diplomacy
US urges Russia to draft proposals for new European security pact
The US administration has reportedly called on Russia to submit proposals for a prospective security treaty with Europe that would include measures to ease tensions between European nations and Moscow.
According to a report by news site Axios citing sources familiar with the matter, the US side conveyed the request during trilateral negotiations held in Abu Dhabi.
During the talks, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner suggested that the Russian delegation prepare a fresh proposal outlining its security concerns and demands.
The US delegation reportedly asked that this proposal clarify what kind of “symmetrical steps” Moscow is prepared to take to de-escalate tensions and “provide non-aggression guarantees to Europe”.
Another source familiar with the White House’s approach said the Trump administration aims to run the processes for a new European security architecture and a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine simultaneously.
Under this plan, the actual implementation of the security understandings would take effect only after the signing of an accord ending the conflict in Ukraine.
Assessing the approach to the process, the source said: “[Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelenskyy will not agree to any compromise without knowing what will happen next regarding security guarantees. Putin also wants to see the exact same picture clearly. This is precisely why the security portfolio is so decisive.”
The same official noted that the US will not reach a security agreement with Russia without the support of Europe and Ukraine, adding that Washington will not grant Moscow veto power over European security decisions.
Vladimir Medinsky, aide to the Russian president and head of the delegation in the Ukraine negotiations, previously stated that the fundamental objective was building a comprehensive new security system in Europe.
Medinsky noted that the structure in question must take on the character of “a fair, new, modern Yalta and Potsdam that carries the spirit of Helsinki 1975 and responds to contemporary realities”.
The Russian official argued that if such a system were established, peace lasting for decades, or even centuries, could be secured in Europe.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also announced that Moscow possesses its own position paper on how a new security architecture in Eurasia should take shape.
Lavrov stated that Russia hopes the Washington administration will “maintain its determination to pursue dialogue aimed at achieving an honest balance of interests where nobody’s security is impaired”.
Russian authorities have repeatedly stated that the country has no intention of attacking Europe.
Pointing out that they have no reason to fight NATO countries, Russian President Vladimir Putin previously said: “We have no interest whatsoever, neither geopolitical nor economic, political nor military.”
In a statement in October, Putin said Russia has no plans to attack anyone “in 2029, in 2030, or in the year 2050”.
On the other hand, Putin claimed that “all NATO countries are fighting Russia” and stated that the Russian military is currently the most combat-ready armed force in the world.
Following the contacts in Abu Dhabi, Kushner announced that he and Witkoff would travel to Moscow.
Explaining that they plan to meet Putin during the visit to discuss European participation in negotiations aimed at resolving the conflict, Kushner argued that the parties could make “far greater progress” if the Russian leader consents to such involvement.
Yury Ushakov, aide to the Russian president, stated that the US special envoys will arrive in Moscow on 12 November, with the planned meeting with the Russian president scheduled for the first half of the day.
Diplomacy
Vance leads indirect push for US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks
US Vice-President JD Vance has been personally involved over the past two weeks in indirect talks with Iran aimed at securing a fresh ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations.
According to Axios, Vance’s intense engagement indicates that he has taken it upon himself to extract the US from the conflict, which he views as responsible for the Republican Party’s shocking losses in this week’s elections.
This elevates the latest round of indirect talks to the highest echelons of the administration.
US officials and regional sources state that Trump is currently willing to let diplomatic efforts run their course to see whether any agreement is achievable.
Asked by reporters on Friday what his message was to Iran, Trump said, “We are talking to them.”
According to sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Vance speaks almost daily with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and other mediators regarding the negotiations with Iran.
White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, are also involved in the process.
Sources say Vance and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators have been discussing the possibility of holding a working-level technical meeting between the US and Iran in the coming days, though this has not yet materialized.
Before the war began in late February, Vance was among the most sceptical voices in Trump’s inner circle on the issue, advocating instead for a diplomatic solution.
In April, he led the US negotiating delegation at the Iran summit held in Islamabad and was personally involved in the talks that yielded a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran in June.
Vance subsequently headed the US delegation during a series of direct talks with Iran in Switzerland.
Two weeks ago, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing that direct negotiations resume.
Rezaei is one of the closest advisers to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.
Iranian officials noted that Vance’s letter generated positive momentum toward restarting talks.
On Wednesday, Vance said the war was the primary reason for the Republicans’ repudiation at the polls.
Sources involved in mediation efforts report that while progress is being made, the process is moving very slowly.
On Friday evening, the prime minister of Qatar said, “Over the past few weeks, we worked with our colleagues in the US administration who have a sincere intention to contain the situation and de-escalate. Thanks to them and the voices of reason in Tehran, we prevented the situation from spinning out of control.”
The prime minister added that discussions with the Trump administration continued following the midterm elections, though they were not as active as in previous days “because there are other matters.”
Nevertheless, he noted that the US intention to find a diplomatic resolution “remains ongoing” and emphasized that an agreement is possible.
On Friday morning, Trump and the Emir of Qatar discussed Qatari efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran as part of an accord.
According to a statement from his office, Sheikh Tamim emphasized the necessity of “pursuing dialogue and diplomatic channels to resolve differences, prevent the region from facing further escalation, and ensure freedom of maritime navigation as well as the security of energy supplies.”
Separately, Trump confirmed on Friday that the US military conducted a strike on an anti-aircraft missile launcher on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after it fired a missile at a US fighter jet.
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