Europe
European defense overhaul: Billions sought for joint security fund
Following US President Donald Trump’s call for peace negotiations in Ukraine, suspension of military aid to Ukraine, and increased defense spending by NATO countries, alarm bells have started ringing in Brussels and Berlin.
European Commission President von der Leyen aims to mobilize a Europe-wide defense budget to continue supporting Ukraine.
In this context, Leyen proposed a plan for the “rearmament of Europe.” EU member states need to invest in a joint defense budget to protect themselves independently of US aid. According to Leyen, an amount of up to 800 billion euros could be mobilized.
Leyen’s five-point plan, announced in Brussels on Tuesday, includes easing debt rules and providing incentives for increased defense spending.
Member states will be enabled to spend more on defense without falling into a debt trap. A new fund of 150 billion euros will be created to support the 27 member states investing in defense.
The Commission stated that the new 150 billion euro joint borrowing would be directed towards building Europe-wide capabilities such as air and missile defense, artillery systems, missiles and ammunition, drones, and anti-drone systems, or meeting other needs from cyber to military mobility.
Social spending to be redirected to arms procurement
“This will help Member States pool their demands and buy together, reducing costs, fragmentation, increasing interoperability, and strengthening our defense industrial base,” Leyen said.
Leyen argued that if member states increased their defense spending by an average of 1.5% of GDP, this could create a fiscal space of nearly 650 billion euros.
The Commission also proposed that EU countries could use the money they receive from the EU budget, intended to equalize living standards across Europe, for defense purposes.
Arguing that the real question is not “whether Europe is facing real threats or whether it needs to take more responsibility for its security,” Leyen said, “The real question is whether Europe is ready to respond decisively as the situation requires.”
Europe is ready to increase its spending to help Ukraine in the short term but also to protect itself in the long term. “Now is the time to take responsibility,” Leyen said.
Recommendations from Berlin: Implement social cuts, indoctrinate the public
Government advisors and foreign policy experts in Berlin are also calling on the next German government to significantly increase the military budget, make severe cuts in social spending, and strongly indoctrinate the public (“change of mindset”).
The demands are featured in the current issue of the journal Internationale Politik (IP), published by the influential German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). The cover story of this issue is the question of “what the world expects from Germany after the election.”
For example, the articles state that the new government must prepare the German people “for Germany to become the leading power in Europe, diplomatically and militarily.” For this, it is necessary to “embed the turning point in people’s minds.”
Strategies to reverse the EU’s decline
According to the current issue of IP, as reported by German Foreign Policy, the EU has been characterized by “a growing decline” for some time.
According to DGAP expert Josef Janning, who has been analyzing the EU for decades, there are several reasons for this. One of these reasons is that the “consequences of supranational political interdependence” are beginning to be felt in daily life, especially in “distribution conflicts and crises.”
These are often negative, especially for weaker member states and population groups that do not belong to the national elites. Janning writes, “[This situation] contributes to the … gain in weight of right-wing national currents and parties.”
At the same time, “at the latest with the failure of the 2004 Constitutional Treaty,” the goal of “a closer union of the peoples of Europe” disappeared from real politics and is, at best, only mentioned in “ceremonial acts … and coalition agreements,” he believes.
In addition, there are no longer “strategically oriented coalitions among member states,” probably due to increasing differences in interests. Finally, it should be noted that the US, under the Trump administration, lost interest in a “stable” and “cooperative Europe.”
The dissolution of the EU as a realistic scenario
Janning notes that political entities like the EU can “continue to exist institutionally” but can also “lose their importance and integrity.”
Institutions like the EU are in danger of becoming “obsolete” if they lose their ability to “further develop” or even act actively. Therefore, “national solo efforts” should be increasingly expected.
“If these trends reach the first pillar of the EU, the internal market and the common currency,” Janning continues, “then the Union will self-destruct in an ‘abundance’ of internal conflicts.”
The author argues that in no period since the 1950s has the centrifugal dynamic been stronger and more visible than in the current situation. “While institutions and processes function as usual, the essence of integration is eroding beneath the surface,” he says, suggesting that for the first time, the failure and dissolution of the European Union “seems like a realistic scenario.”
Seeking “ways out of the erosion,” the DGAP expert argues that the EU needs “an orientation towards political unity, strategic thinking.”
A Bundeswehr capable of war: New taxes for the public for the army
According to the author, this includes the “common defense issue.” Janning believes this too, saying, “Most, if not all, depends on Germany, the economically strongest power in the center of Europe.”
While Janning insists on addressing the “common defense issue” to save the EU, Carlo Masala, Professor of International Politics at the Bundeswehr University in Munich, calls on the future German government to “realize that the foundations of Germany’s security and defense policy must be renewed,” which means a “Bundeswehr capable of war.”
According to the professor, what is needed is a significant increase in the military budget. Masala proposes, among other things, “a solidarity surcharge for defense,” amounting to “1 to 1.5%” of income tax, “to be paid by everyone working in Germany.”
Besides, Masala believes that a significant increase in the number of personnel in the Bundeswehr is necessary because there will be a “disproportionately large wave of retirements” in the next few years.
An internal memo from the German Ministry of Defense recently considered increasing the current number of 180,000 personnel to 440,000 soldiers. However, the Two Plus Four Agreement provides for an upper limit of 350,000.
The Two Plus Four Agreement is the name given to the documents signed by the Federal Republic of Germany with the German Democratic Republic and the US-United Kingdom-France-USSR, paving the way for “German reunification.”
Independently of this, not only a return to compulsory military service but also a change in the Constitution is required, for example, to extend compulsory military service to women.
Change of mindset: Be ready for German leadership
Jan Techau, Director of the Europe Program at the Eurasia Group in Berlin, also argues in favor of mass armament in IP.
According to Techau, the next German government must prepare “the Germans, the Berlin bubble, and itself … for Germany to become the leading power in Europe, diplomatically and militarily.”
The learning process towards accepting this role will be “much more difficult” because “everything is very, very expensive,” and the next Federal Chancellor will “have to make and justify dramatic budget decisions,” according to the author.
Techau states that this is “clear to everyone involved,” but before the election, no one wants to be “caught telling the truth” about it.
According to the author, what is important now is to prepare the conservatives for “new debts” and the left for “painful structural reforms”: “Otherwise, there is a risk of resistance and blockade.”
But Techau also sees it as “the real task of the next government” to prepare the public for the fact that Berlin will “have to make some unheard-of decisions in the near future.” The author does not explain what this means beyond the enormous costs of weapons and other war equipment. However, he believes that “a change in mindset, a turning point in people’s minds” is necessary.
Armament should cease to be a moral issue for Germans
Ulrike Esther Franke from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) is also among those offering advice on this matter.
Franke criticizes the discussions on military issues in Germany as being “morally charged”; according to her, military experts are therefore faced with “considerable distrust,” and this situation “does not contribute to a better discussion environment.”
The author also suggests that war discussions in Germany are “driven by fear,” which she considers harmful for dealing with future “dangers.”
Franke believes that the war in Ukraine has created “a window of opportunity in the willingness to deal with defense issues”; therefore, the next government should use this to set a significant course before the “mood” changes.
Franke calls on the new German government, “Now is the time for political leadership.”
Europe
Nokia and ICEYE sign deal to build sovereign Ukraine satellite network
Nokia and space technology company ICEYE have signed a memorandum of understanding with Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence to establish a satellite communications network controlled directly by the Kyiv government.
A press release issued by Nokia noted that the parties will jointly assess the feasibility of implementing a Ukrainian-controlled communications system.
The agreement was announced on 22 October during the Finnish Prime Minister’s visit to Ukraine. The primary goal of the cooperation was described as bolstering the country’s defence capabilities, first and foremost by strengthening its independent satellite communications capacity.
Earlier in October, ICEYE and Nokia announced that they would jointly develop secure broadband communication systems operating in low Earth orbit for public institutions.
Designed for defence, border security, emergency services, and disaster response teams, these European-origin technologies are stated to allow states to directly own and independently operate their own satellites, ground infrastructure, and terminals.
In remarks on the matter, ICEYE Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder Rafal Modrzewski stated that Ukraine requires secure, sovereign, and high-capacity satellite communications systems under its complete control.
Mikko Hautala, Nokia’s Director of Geopolitical and Government Relations and Chairman of the Nokia Defence Board, pointed out that satellite networks ensure the continuity of communications even when terrestrial transmission infrastructure suffers damage.
Hautala said that together with ICEYE, they will explore how reliable and sovereign satellite communications can enhance Ukraine’s resilience and provide the Kyiv government with control over communications on which it depends.
Based in Finland, space company ICEYE develops and manufactures radar satellites and makes data obtained from these satellites available for use.
According to information shared by the company, its technologies are used in defence and intelligence, as well as in environmental monitoring, insurance, and emergency response operations.
Reports indicating that restrictions had been placed on the US satellite connection used by the Ukrainian military surfaced just before this agreement.
In a post on the night of 14 October, former Ukrainian Defence Ministry Adviser Serhiy Sternenko stated that terminals were losing connection when travelling at speeds of 160 kilometres per hour, and that these disruptions later began occurring at speeds of 60 to 70 kilometres per hour as well.
SpaceX head Elon Musk maintained that the US government owns and manages Starshield, the military version of Starlink, and that restriction decisions were therefore taken by US authorities.
The White House, meanwhile, stated that it had nothing to do with the restrictions.
According to a 22 October report in The Wall Street Journal citing US officials, US President Donald Trump personally asked Musk to lift the restrictions in question.
Following the discussion, US and Ukrainian officials stated that the system began operating more stably, while some Ukrainian representatives said functionality had not yet fully returned to its previous state. Trump confirmed that Ukraine’s Starshield access had been restored.
The restrictions met with backlash across Europe.
Accusing Musk of playing political games, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski posted on the X platform: “We are your European customers, we are watching you.”
Poland has purchased approximately 25,000 Starlink terminals for Ukraine since 2022 and continues to cover the satellite connection costs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Following these developments, the European Commission also announced that Ukraine’s inclusion in the Govsatcom programme is under consideration.
Bringing together the existing satellite capacity of EU member states, the secure communications programme is planned by Brussels to be expanded with commercial services at the start of 2027.
Europe
Mélenchon’s “new France” vision triggers fierce cross-party debate
Following the unrest in France this month, the country finds itself split between Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s project of a “new France” and Marine Le Pen’s call for “law and order”.
Triggered alongside the student revolt, the question of national identity has moved to the centre of the presidential race.
“This is Mélenchon’s ‘new France’,” said National Rally (RN) leader Jordan Bardella and Identity and Freedom (ID) party leader Marion Maréchal Le Pen, linking the scenes of violence directly to the phrase.
According to several recent speeches by the leader of France Unbowed (LFI), “new France” signifies a country transformed positively by immigration, women’s rights, shifting family structures, social mobility, and the political demands of younger generations.
Mélenchon contends that this optimistic vision can become a reality if voters elect him president next year.
Two Frances to clash this weekend
Yet as the April 2027 elections draw closer, Mélenchon’s vision of a “new France” has turned into a recurring target for Marine Le Pen’s party, the RN, because it encapsulates a fundamental rift over French identity.
While Le Pen’s party draws on nostalgia for a revived nationalist past, Mélenchon’s vision of a “new France” envisages a clean break with the old order.
These two visions appear set for a direct collision this weekend. Le Pen will stage a gathering in Orléans before 10,000 supporters, which RN officials say will focus on authority, French identity, and public order.
Mélenchon’s party, LFI, is expected to join demonstrations against the RN alongside other left-wing forces and trade unions in the historic French town associated with Joan of Arc, which Le Pen treats as a nationalist symbol.
Echoes of Sartre in “new France”: Change over essentialism
Defending the concept of “new France” against its critics, LFI argues that it cannot be understood without reading a little of the philosopher Jean-Paul Sartre and grasping the legacy accumulated from the left’s long ideological battles.
From a Sartrean perspective, “new France” is not a fixed, essentialist identity, but a fluid, changing reality.
Rather than declaring “this is who we are”, this outlook is grounded in “this is what we live through”, describing the varied realities confronted by precarious workers, women, people of non-French origin, and young voters.
According to this view, their lived experiences fit neither the right’s nor the left’s traditional national representations.
Mélenchon identifies women as the face of the “new France”. This category also encompasses blended families, young people, LGBT rights, long-distance commuters, and French citizens whose ancestors were born abroad.
Broadsides from the right, criticism from the left
Although he has used the phrase for years, pollsters note that it has become increasingly prominent as identity politics has come to occupy a larger share of his campaigning.
For critics across the political spectrum, “new France” implies casting “old France” aside.
Conservative Bruno Retailleau, for example, describes it as “the end of France”.
Former LFI ally François Ruffin criticises Mélenchon from the left. In Ruffin’s view, the LFI leader is trading class-based political appeal for an appeal directed at diverse urban electorates, sacrificing working-class towns and deindustrialised regions in the process.
Others dismiss the phrase as a slogan fabricated to drive polarisation across every cultural fault line.
Promoting the concept in May ahead of the French municipal elections, Mélenchon said: “The new France is not one part of France set against another; it is the whole of France.”
A month later, he noted that crowds at his rallies chanted “On est chez nous!” or “This is our home!”
Usually associated with far-right gatherings through the variant “France belongs to us”, the slogan, according to Rapporteur, offers a simpler expression of what the two camps are actually contesting: who gets to define French identity, and who feels at home in France.
Europe
EU unveils Arctic plan targeting military corridors and resources
The EU is developing plans to enhance its military mobility in the Arctic and aims to establish “multimodal military movement corridors” across the High North.
According to a report by German Foreign Policy, this initiative was outlined in the EU’s new Arctic strategy presented by the European Commission in Brussels on Tuesday.
Under the strategy, a complex logistics network consisting of “ports, airports, and their inland connections” will be created across the Arctic, designed to “remain operational even under adverse weather conditions.”
The strategy paper also announces that “exercises or stress tests” will be conducted to ensure the smooth deployment of military forces and capabilities to the Arctic.
Through this strategy, the EU is responding to the reality that climate change-driven Arctic ice melt is facilitating access to regional natural resources while opening new sea routes, such as the Northeast and Northwest Passages, which can now be used for both commercial and military operations.
The Arctic strategy aims for greater independence from the US and envisages laying a “pan-Arctic” submarine cable running from Europe through the polar region to East Asia.
Arctic natural resources
The EU’s new Arctic strategy addresses, among other topics, the natural resources located in the Arctic, both beneath the seabed and on land.
Due to thawing ice, these resources are already accessible or will soon become easier to reach, and Brussels supports their extraction.
Specific projects highlighted include a rare earth element extraction venture near Kiruna in northernmost Sweden and a plan to mine molybdenum in eastern Greenland.
Departing from its previous 2021 Arctic strategy, the Commission no longer advocates an outright ban on oil, gas, and coal extraction in the Arctic within a multilateral framework.
This policy shift comes as Norway has emerged as the bloc’s most vital natural gas supplier, providing approximately 30% of all its natural gas imports following the EU’s phased reduction of Russian energy imports.
However, production from Norway’s existing fields is expected to decline in the 2030s. Consequently, Norway plans to explore new deposits in the Barents Sea, where vast reserves are estimated to lie.
Dependent on raw material supplies from Norway as well as strategic cooperation with Oslo, the EU no longer opposes these exploration plans.
New sea routes opened by melting ice
The EU is also turning its attention to the gradual opening of new Arctic shipping routes.
For instance, the Northeast Passage, running along Russia’s northern coastline from East Asia to Europe, is now open to navigation between August and October.
This route is considerably shorter than the conventional transit via the Indian Ocean, significantly reducing shipping costs, especially in light of current oil prices.
A Chinese shipping firm launched regular services via the Northeast Passage this summer, while a South Korean vessel recently returned to the port of Busan after completing its maiden commercial voyage along the corridor.
Although used by few vessels to date, the Northwest Passage has also come into operation as a route extending from the North Atlantic through Canada’s northern archipelago and north of Alaska toward East Asia.
Experts believe that, during the summer months, this passage could offer advantages over the traditional route via the Panama Canal “for certain vessel types and transport routes.”
The emergence of new military capabilities was underscored in September when four Russian warships navigated the Shokalsky Strait between two Russian Arctic islands for the first time in history.
Military mobility in the High North
This development represents another driver behind the EU’s new Arctic Strategy placing particular emphasis on military aspects.
Russia has been strengthening its Arctic military positions for some time, partly because the headquarters of its Northern Fleet, which hosts part of its second-strike capability, is located on its north-western coast, and partly because its exceptionally long northern coastline remains strategically vulnerable.
NATO has likewise been expanding its activities in the Arctic considerably, holding numerous exercises across northern Finland, Sweden, and Norway, as well as in Iceland and Greenland, alongside its new “Operation Arctic Sentry.”
The strategy document states that the EU must now strengthen its own posture in the Arctic.
This objective is to be pursued both in cooperation with NATO and through independent EU measures.
For example, situational awareness must be enhanced, including by leveraging EU satellite systems, particularly Copernicus and Galileo.
Additionally, the planned IRIS2 satellite constellation, conceived as Europe’s counterpart to Starlink, should be expanded to cover the Arctic to improve communications.
To coordinate these initiatives, the EU plans to establish a Maritime Security Centre.
The EU places special emphasis on military mobility in the Arctic. According to the document, rapid and large-scale troop deployments must be feasible in the region at any time if required.
To this end, “multimodal military movement corridors” incorporating ports, airports, and their inland connections need to be established.
These facilities will be designed as a unified, complex logistics system “capable of remaining operational even under adverse weather conditions.”
Realising this plan will require preparation for “ice clearance,” “the handling of heavy and oversized military vehicles on frozen ground,” and “the rapid repair of damaged infrastructure.”
Looking ahead, the EU is urged to organize “exercises or stress tests focused on the smooth deployment of forces and military capabilities to and within the Arctic” in cooperation with NATO or like-minded partners.
Viewing these capabilities as vital for “credible deterrence,” the EU also underscores the need for its own icebreaker fleet to clear pathways through the ice for warships.
The Arctic’s role in “strategic autonomy” vis-a-vis the US
Throughout this process, the EU is not only adopting a clear stance toward Russia, but is also pursuing greater independence from the US.
On one hand, the strategy encourages deepening ties with Greenland, which is part of Denmark, does not belong to the EU, and has faced threats of US annexation. The document designates this relationship as a cornerstone of the new Arctic strategy.
On the other hand, the text calls for intensifying cooperation as part of a “Northern Neighbourhood” strategy with Norway, Iceland, and Canada, as well as with the UK, which occupies a strategically advantageous position despite not being an Arctic coastal state.
The EU maintains a security and defence dialogue with Norway, holding its fifth session this past April, alongside launching an “Arctic Dialogue” with Oslo this year.
Canada is classified by the European Commission as a “natural ally” in the Arctic. Observers note that while Canada is mentioned dozens of times throughout the strategy, the US is cited only a handful of times.
This contrast is seen as evidence that the EU is seeking independence from Washington in the High North.
Accordingly, the document explicitly references “European strategic autonomy” as an “integral component of the Arctic.”
Pan-Arctic cable plan extending to Japan
The EU Arctic Strategy also identifies Japan and South Korea as cooperation partners in the region.
This partnership is linked to plans to connect Greenland to the EU via a submarine cable, which would subsequently be extended across the Bering Strait to Japan and South Korea.
Berlin has advocated the construction of such a “pan-Arctic cable” for some time.
According to a statement issued in early July by the Berlin-based German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), such an infrastructure project is highly desirable for multiple reasons.
First, data traffic between Europe and Asia, 90% of which currently passes through the Red Sea and the strait between Djibouti and Yemen (Bab el-Mandeb), “suffers from a high failure rate and a lack of redundancy.”
Furthermore, the Arctic route is “significantly shorter,” resulting in reduced latency and fewer transmission delays.
International equity trading in particular stands to benefit from “real-time data transmission” enabled by a new polar cable link.
SWP outlines two potential routes for the cable: one running west of Greenland and the other running east.
-
Europe2 weeks agoBerlin Left Party backs Israel’s right to exist for coalition pact
-
America2 weeks agoTrump weighs presidential memorandum to cut surging US diesel prices
-
Diplomacy1 week agoSWP urges backing for Gulf trade routes bypassing Strait of Hormuz
-
Diplomacy2 weeks agoEU and China reach preliminary deal to curb hybrid car imports
-
Europe1 week agoLSE study finds post-bailout Greece turned into a cafe economy
-
America2 weeks agoEnergy firms enlist ex-US officials to tap Venezuelan oil
-
America2 weeks agoThiel targets Pope and Obama over AI in new ‘Antichrist’ lectures
-
Europe2 weeks agoRaphaël Glucksmann wins French centre-left presidential primary
