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Expect retaliation within 24-48 hours: Israel prepares to strike on ‘multiple fronts’

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Following the assassinations of Hezbollah military chief Fuad Shoukr and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, the US estimates that Iran could launch an attack on Israel within 24 to 48 hours from today. As Israel prepares for the attack, Biden will convene his national security team.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a phone call with G7 foreign ministers that Iran and Hezbollah could attack Israel within 24 to 48 hours.

According to three people familiar with the call who spoke to the US news website Axios, Blinken said the US believes Iran and Hezbollah will retaliate. Blinken told the G7 foreign ministers that it was unclear how Iran would retaliate, stating that they did not know the exact timing of the attacks but that they “could begin in the next 24 to 48 hours”.

Blinken noted that the US was seeking to limit Iranian and Hezbollah attacks as much as possible and then to limit Israel’s response in order to break the cycle of escalation.

Blinken urged the G7 foreign ministers to put diplomatic pressure on Iran, Hezbollah and Israel to exercise restraint, and said the increase in the number of US forces in the region was defensive.

A source who attended the meeting said Blinken appeared “frustrated” as he briefed the ministers on recent talks with Israel over Gaza prisoners and a ceasefire agreement.

US convenes national security team

It has been announced that US President Biden will also convene his national security team due to rising tensions and the threat of retaliation.

A White House statement said the meeting, which will be closed to the press, will take place in the ‘Situation Room’, which is convened in special circumstances. The statement said Biden would convene his national security team today to discuss the latest developments in the Middle East following the assassinations of senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukour and Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh, and Iran’s possible retaliation against Israel.

“The US wants to reduce tensions in the region”

Speaking on CBS’s Face the Nation, US Deputy National Security Adviser Jonathan Finer said the US was seeking to reduce tensions in the region through measures such as sending additional warplanes and ships to the Middle East.

“We are trying to prevent the conflict in Gaza from spilling over and spreading elsewhere. That is our strategic objective,” he said.

The US Department of Defence (Pentagon) has announced that it will send additional warplanes and ships to the region to increase its support for Israel’s security in the face of ‘threats from Iran’.

Israel expects casualties this time

Meanwhile, Israel is bracing for possible attacks from Iran and Hezbollah.

According to Israel’s Channel 12, Israeli security services are on “high alert” and members of the US-led international coalition, including Britain and allied Arab states, are on standby to prevent and deter possible Iranian attacks on “various fronts”.

The report, which did not cite sources, said the measures taken included allied aircraft and warships patrolling the region.

The report noted that Israeli leaders are discussing how the country will respond to such attacks, including the possibility of an all-out war.

The Ynet news website also reported that security meetings have been held to prepare for attacks. According to the report, ministers were asked to be ready for any scenario.

“MK-83 bombs approved” claim

On the other hand, it has been claimed that the US administration has approved the sending of half-ton MK-83 bombs to Israel for use in air strikes.

According to the Israel Hayom newspaper, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who visited the US in late July, asked Biden to send heavier bombs in case of an escalation of tensions with Lebanese Hezbollah on the northern border.

According to the news report, Biden allegedly decided to send MK-83 bombs, which weigh half a tonne and are used in fighter jets, while it is not yet known whether Washington has accepted the transfer of MK-84 bombs, which weigh one tonne.

The reportedly approved half-ton bombs are expected to be delivered to Israel along with some 1,700 250-kilogram MK-82 bombs, the delivery of which was stopped by the Biden administration after they were loaded onto the ship.

It was noted that the MK-82 bombs were stopped on Biden’s direct orders due to his dissatisfaction with Israel’s attacks on Rafah in southern Gaza.

While it is known that the US restricted arms shipments to Israel for a while after the 7 October attacks, but recently resumed them, the delivery of heavy weapons is causing public debate.

A senior Israeli official said that Israel and the US might find it difficult to stop an attack on several fronts and that the country should prepare for ‘a large number of casualties’. The official claimed that only such a scenario would pave the way for a stronger Israeli response and that the world would rally around Israel.

ASIA

Syria will not follow Afghanistan’s Taliban model of governance

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In an astonishing statement, Ahmed Shará, also known as Abu Mohamad Jolani, the leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) said that he will allow the girls to go to schools and will not turn Syria like Afghanistan under the rule of the Taliban.

Jolani, the de facto ruler of Syria, said that he will distance himself from the Taliban’s strict policies on women’s rights, and said that Syria will not follow the Taliban’s mode of governance.  

Jolani, who brought down the government of Bashar al-Assad and also widely welcomed by the Taliban, said that he believes in the education of women and girls and will not make Syria like Afghanistan.

“Syria is a diverse society with various ideas, unlike Afghanistan, which is more tribal. The Afghan model cannot be applied here,” Jolani told a BBC reporter.

Jolani says that Syria is a diverse society with various ideas, unlike Afghanistan, which is more tribal.

Jolani’s comment came when the Taliban congratulated the HTS-led victory by Jolani over Assad’s regime after years of fighting. The Afghan Foreign Ministry celebrated Jolani’s victory through a statement and hoped Jolani can bring peace and stability in the country.

“It is hoped that the power transition process is advanced in a manner that lays the foundation of a sovereign and serve-oriented Islamic government in the line with the aspiration of the Syrian people; that unifies the entire population without discrimination and retribution through adoption of a general assembly; and a positive foreign policy with world countries the safeguard Syria from a threat of negative rivalries of foreign actors and creates conditions for the return of millions of refugees,” the statement by Taliban Foreign Ministry.

However, Jolan’s position on the rights of women and girls is in great contrast with the current view of the Taliban leadership. Women and girls have been banned from education and work since the return of the Taliban in August 2021, following the collapse of the Republic System and withdrawal of the US troops from Afghanistan. Girls and women are even banned from medical institutions and visiting public spaces.

Jolani says he has a plan to create a government based institution and a council chosen by the people. 

The situation got worse when the Taliban’s Ministry for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice called women’s voices “immodest” compounding their exclusion from public life. This year, it has been marked as three years since girls were banned from pursuing education over sixth grade. Besides that, on December 20, 2022, the Taliban’s Ministry of Higher Education announced that women would be barred from attending public and private universities.    

In an interview with CNN, Jolani said that he has a plan to create a government based on institutions and a “council chosen by the people.”

“When we talk about objectives, the goal of the revolution remains the overthrow of this regime. It is our right to use all available means to achieve that goal,” said Jolani.

“The seeds of the regime’s defeat have always been within it… the Iranians attempted to revive the regime, buying it time, and later the Russians also tried to prop it up. But the truth remains: this regime is dead.”

Moreover, he also said the Syrian people are the “rightful owners” of the country after the ouster of Assad, and declared a “new history” has been written for the entire Middle East.

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U.S. officials to meet with HTS and Jolani in Damascus

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In a significant diplomatic development, U.S. President Joe Biden has authorized senior American diplomats to engage directly with Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). This marks the first formal meeting between U.S. officials and HTS leadership since the group’s overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in Syria earlier this month. Despite HTS’s pivotal role in the regime’s fall, the U.S. continues to classify it as a terrorist organization.

The delegation is led by Barbara Leaf, the State Department’s senior Middle East official. She is joined by Roger Carstens, the U.S. Special Envoy for Hostage Affairs, and Daniel Rubenstein, a veteran diplomat recalled from retirement to spearhead U.S. diplomatic efforts in Syria post-Assad. Rubenstein, previously stationed at the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, is now tasked with navigating Syria’s complex political landscape following the collapse of the Assad regime.

The meeting, taking place on December 20, represents the first direct, face-to-face dialogue between the U.S., and HTS leaders. This engagement comes as HTS appeals to Western nations to lift longstanding sanctions against Syria. U.S. officials have indicated that lifting the ‘terrorist’ designation and easing sanctions could be possible if HTS demonstrates a commitment to inclusive governance and sustained stability.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized the importance of HTS addressing critical security concerns, including chemical weapons and the lingering presence of groups like Daesh (ISIS). Speaking in New York, Blinken stated, “If you don’t want this isolation, then there are things you need to do to move the country forward in an inclusive way.”

The U.S. visit follows similar diplomatic engagements in Damascus this week by officials from France, Germany, and Britain, highlighting a coordinated Western effort to shape Syria’s post-Assad future. Speaking to Bloomberg, Blinken reiterated the necessity of direct dialogue in fostering stability.

Washington’s discussions with HTS also aim to expedite efforts to locate Austin Tice, an American journalist kidnapped in Damascus in 2012. Despite HTS’s designation as a terrorist entity, the U.S. maintains that communication is permissible under its legal framework, provided no material support is extended.

Simultaneously, the Pentagon announced an increase in U.S. troop deployments to northeast Syria, doubling the number from 900 to approximately 2,000. Major General Pat Ryder, Pentagon spokesperson, clarified that these troops were already present before Assad’s fall, underscoring the ongoing mission to counter Daesh.

Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior intelligence official now at the Atlantic Council, warned of potential consequences if the U.S. fails to assert influence in Syria. “If Washington and its allies do not actively work to ensure that the leaders and groups in Syria align with U.S. interests, the vacuum in Syria will almost certainly be filled by a country or group hostile to our interests and those of our allies,” Panikoff told the Financial Times.

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Migration and identity crisis

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Whether we like it or not, immigration is the reality of our world today. This fact, in addition to the fact that it can become an opportunity with proper individual and organizational management, also has its own challenges. Among other things, one of the challenges that arise for immigrant communities and the immigrant generation is the identity crisis. The crisis of identity is a broad and multidimensional debate, but with a simpler view, this crisis among the second and third generation of immigrants is caused by a duality – on the one hand, they inevitably have to reject the relatively strict traditional-religious behavior of their parents, and on the other hand, they cannot fully absorb the secular and civil values ​​of the host society.

At the same time, these second and third generation immigrants need a series of rituals, education and ceremonies in which they can feel themselves and find a sense of belonging. Because they have rejected the worn-out advice of their parents, they lose their respect, attention and empathy.

But on the other hand, they are not respected outside when they face the more important and larger part, that is, the host society. That is, because they cannot be successfully absorbed into the host society, they do not attract attention and respect from there and are isolated. While as human beings they need attention and respect from others – to be someone for themselves and to be known and honored with the title they like. If we want to explain the identity problem in simple language, this is it. Of course, this is not a general case. There are so many young people who are successfully recruited and busy with their daily work and are in positive interaction with institutions and human groups in their field of work every day. This is a huge success in terms of integration. But naturally, there are those whose absorption process in the host society is disturbed due to various reasons.

They are thirsty for attention and seeking respect because of the aforementioned emptiness. In this case, they are waiting hard for someone, an institution or a group to be found under its order to become meaningful signifiers even at the cost of obeying or blindly following. Because following also reminds at least that they are human and some people need to follow them.

Immigrants want to be respected by the host countries as it strengthens the sense of belonging to the community

Due to this need, many addresses with religious, ethnic and cultural names have been created among immigrants and usually they all offer some kind of identity product. Because they know that the immigrant community needs things to remind them that they belong to a certain nation, race, or religion in times of identity crisis. They have a special past and history, and based on their ancestral religion, they will be treated in a special way in heaven.

Also, in this world, angels always have a good opinion of them. When they feel that they have been rejected from the reality of society due to the difficulties of immigration, it is natural for them to take refuge in imaginary sources and ask for respect and attention from there.

This seemingly makes their existence meaningful and strengthens their sense of belonging to the same group, but on the other hand, it further separates them from the main body of the host society. This separation is not only deep, but sometimes becomes a factor resistant to assimilation and integration.

Efforts should be made so that the situation does not reach a point where that vacuum is formed or reaches a critical level. The way to avoid this gap is absorption and integration. Being absorbed is not easy for immigrants; Therefore, a practical solution should be considered for it. For this, it is good to ask: What helps us to become like the society or people of our host country or second home? What do they have? What do we have in common?

In response, it should be said: Our first and most important contribution is in “citizenship”. That we are citizens of a certain country and being a citizen requires commitment and sacrifice. If we reach this civic understanding that citizenship is a principle prior to other elements of identity such as religion, religion, language and ethnicity, I think we have traveled an important part of the way. It is the only umbrella that can cover everyone equally, so that no one feels left out.

The good thing about this umbrella is that in order to join it, no immigrant needs to become a Christian first to become a citizen of a certain country, or to be white first to qualify for citizenship. It is enough that they respect the rights and freedoms of the members of the society.

This is the result of the maturity of human history, which is steered by Western civilization, and now Western countries also consider themselves obliged to comply with it.

Of course, this has not always been the case in the West. For example, more than half a century ago in Germany, Jews were legally ineligible for German citizenship as long as they insisted on their Jewishness. The granting of citizenship, which is actually the granting of the right to live again, regardless of religion, ethnicity and region, based only on being “human”, is an unprecedented achievement in human history, which is implemented in first world countries.

The identity loss and wandering shows itself in various forms.

The phenomenon of migration and the lack of compatibility of new arrivals with the new environment is not a new thing. For example, after the industrial revolution in the 19th century, these same countries faced the problem of identity crisis. Due to the impact of the industrial revolution, people suddenly moved from the surrounding areas to the cities, and those who had just arrived in the city had exactly the same situation as today’s immigrants, who are thrown from the third world countries to the center of the largest cities of the first world countries, and it is impossible not to get lost.

This identity loss and wandering shows itself in various forms. The problem of internal migration in Western countries in the 18th and 19th centuries, caused by the mass migration of rural people to the cities, was solved by gradual integration. Today, the challenge of immigration to these countries can only be managed with sustainable and intelligent integration.

But what is important is the implementation of this integration in the healthiest way and with the least cost for the host society and the immigrants. Integration is inevitable, it just needs to be managed well. If integration does not take place, urban life with its own nature and the whole issue of government-nationality and national identity of these countries will face danger and no country likes this.

One can think about those who just arrived in the city two centuries ago, how it was hard for them to lose their local dialects and customs and religious and regional traditions, but now their current generations who were born in the city, grew up and educated in the city, are basically urban and they do not have the accent of their great-grandfathers nor their customs. They are either from London or from Manchester or from Birmingham and all of them are English and they have nothing to do with their villages.

Current immigrants also have to go through such a process. That is, they should be absorbed in the urban life and civic values ​​and nationality of the host countries. As Fukuyama, a contemporary political scientist, says “although with the victory of the Iranian revolution in 1979 and the Salafist movement in Saudi Arabia in the same years, the assumption that Muslim immigrants in Western countries should maintain their independent religious institutions was strengthened.”

Several decades of bad experiences of some migrants in West have led to the creation of far-right parties and their stance against immigrant

Even today, this strategy is being implemented by the Islamic Republic in all parts of the world under various titles under the guise of religion and under the name of religious freedom. But the result of creating an island and intervening and demanding the isolation of same-religious groups from the rest of the host society is creating a rift and the illusion of a dual identity, which, if it becomes acute, can even create security problems for the host society.

From the point of view of isolated groups and individuals, citizenship does not have a special meaning, nor does it bring duties and obligations. According to them, religion or ethnicity is the factor of unification, not citizenship. The occurrence of religiously motivated terrorist attacks in Western countries, as well as the joining of second and third generation Muslim immigrants from Western countries to extremist groups in the Middle East, can be understood under this logic.

Several decades of bad experiences of Muslims in Western countries have led to the creation of far-right parties and their stance against immigrants and Muslims in those countries. The emergence of populist nationalism is due to the feeling of danger that immigrants have taken their identity from them and they don’t want to be confused with immigrants.

That is, in the host countries, which are mostly western, there is also a group that does not like immigrants, especially Muslim immigrants, to be integrated into them. According to them, Muslim immigrants should not pollute their culture and identity – so to speak.

But again, due to the blessing of the secular age and the secular government, their words are not taken into account, and they are willing to give citizenship to Muslims and follow the policy of multiculturalism, with all the possible dangers and sometimes bad memories of some of them – that one day maybe the important principle of “citizenship” will be institutionalized in them.

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