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MIDDLE EAST

Expect retaliation within 24-48 hours: Israel prepares to strike on ‘multiple fronts’

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Following the assassinations of Hezbollah military chief Fuad Shoukr and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, the US estimates that Iran could launch an attack on Israel within 24 to 48 hours from today. As Israel prepares for the attack, Biden will convene his national security team.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a phone call with G7 foreign ministers that Iran and Hezbollah could attack Israel within 24 to 48 hours.

According to three people familiar with the call who spoke to the US news website Axios, Blinken said the US believes Iran and Hezbollah will retaliate. Blinken told the G7 foreign ministers that it was unclear how Iran would retaliate, stating that they did not know the exact timing of the attacks but that they “could begin in the next 24 to 48 hours”.

Blinken noted that the US was seeking to limit Iranian and Hezbollah attacks as much as possible and then to limit Israel’s response in order to break the cycle of escalation.

Blinken urged the G7 foreign ministers to put diplomatic pressure on Iran, Hezbollah and Israel to exercise restraint, and said the increase in the number of US forces in the region was defensive.

A source who attended the meeting said Blinken appeared “frustrated” as he briefed the ministers on recent talks with Israel over Gaza prisoners and a ceasefire agreement.

US convenes national security team

It has been announced that US President Biden will also convene his national security team due to rising tensions and the threat of retaliation.

A White House statement said the meeting, which will be closed to the press, will take place in the ‘Situation Room’, which is convened in special circumstances. The statement said Biden would convene his national security team today to discuss the latest developments in the Middle East following the assassinations of senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukour and Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh, and Iran’s possible retaliation against Israel.

“The US wants to reduce tensions in the region”

Speaking on CBS’s Face the Nation, US Deputy National Security Adviser Jonathan Finer said the US was seeking to reduce tensions in the region through measures such as sending additional warplanes and ships to the Middle East.

“We are trying to prevent the conflict in Gaza from spilling over and spreading elsewhere. That is our strategic objective,” he said.

The US Department of Defence (Pentagon) has announced that it will send additional warplanes and ships to the region to increase its support for Israel’s security in the face of ‘threats from Iran’.

Israel expects casualties this time

Meanwhile, Israel is bracing for possible attacks from Iran and Hezbollah.

According to Israel’s Channel 12, Israeli security services are on “high alert” and members of the US-led international coalition, including Britain and allied Arab states, are on standby to prevent and deter possible Iranian attacks on “various fronts”.

The report, which did not cite sources, said the measures taken included allied aircraft and warships patrolling the region.

The report noted that Israeli leaders are discussing how the country will respond to such attacks, including the possibility of an all-out war.

The Ynet news website also reported that security meetings have been held to prepare for attacks. According to the report, ministers were asked to be ready for any scenario.

“MK-83 bombs approved” claim

On the other hand, it has been claimed that the US administration has approved the sending of half-ton MK-83 bombs to Israel for use in air strikes.

According to the Israel Hayom newspaper, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who visited the US in late July, asked Biden to send heavier bombs in case of an escalation of tensions with Lebanese Hezbollah on the northern border.

According to the news report, Biden allegedly decided to send MK-83 bombs, which weigh half a tonne and are used in fighter jets, while it is not yet known whether Washington has accepted the transfer of MK-84 bombs, which weigh one tonne.

The reportedly approved half-ton bombs are expected to be delivered to Israel along with some 1,700 250-kilogram MK-82 bombs, the delivery of which was stopped by the Biden administration after they were loaded onto the ship.

It was noted that the MK-82 bombs were stopped on Biden’s direct orders due to his dissatisfaction with Israel’s attacks on Rafah in southern Gaza.

While it is known that the US restricted arms shipments to Israel for a while after the 7 October attacks, but recently resumed them, the delivery of heavy weapons is causing public debate.

A senior Israeli official said that Israel and the US might find it difficult to stop an attack on several fronts and that the country should prepare for ‘a large number of casualties’. The official claimed that only such a scenario would pave the way for a stronger Israeli response and that the world would rally around Israel.

MIDDLE EAST

US military prepares plans if Gaza ceasefire talks collapse

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The US military is preparing for the collapse of ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas, amid fears it could spark a wider regional conflict.

I’m thinking about how that would affect tensions in the region if the talks were to stall or break down altogether, and what we need to do to be prepared in that situation,’ US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General CQ Brown told the Financial Times (FT) on Thursday.

Speaking en route to a meeting of the Ukraine Contact Group in Germany, Brown said he was assessing how regional actors would react if the talks failed and whether they would ‘step up their activities of any kind, potentially going down the path of miscalculation and widening the conflict’.

“My focus is on how not to expand the conflict, but also how to protect our forces,” the American general said.

Hostage deal still ‘not close’

Brown’s comments come as negotiations have reached an impasse. Israel and Hamas are at odds over details of the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, as well as Israel’s insistence on keeping troops in a strip of territory along Gaza’s border with Egypt, known as the Philadelphi Corridor.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Thursday that the United States would share with Israel and Hamas “in the coming days” its “thoughts on exactly how to resolve the remaining issues”. He added that ‘it’s up to the parties to decide yes or no’.

While the US has sought to remain optimistic about the talks, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly rejected claims of progress in the talks, telling Fox News on Thursday that a deal was ‘not imminent’.

Senior US officials say the talks are 90 per cent complete but acknowledge that difficult issues remain unresolved.

We’ve had setbacks, setbacks and more setbacks, and there’s no question that the administration is disappointed that we still haven’t completed this agreement,’ US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on Thursday.

A senior US official suggested that the deaths of six Israeli hostages held by Hamas last week ‘brought a sense of urgency to the [negotiating] process’ but also ‘raised questions about Hamas’ willingness to make a deal’.

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MIDDLE EAST

Gallant called Philadelphi insistence a disgrace: Ministers react

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Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant has described Israel’s insistence on the Philadelphi Corridor as ‘an unnecessary self-imposed constraint’. Gallant’s statement drew a response from the Prime Minister and ministers. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel would insist on continuing to occupy the Philadelphi Corridor.

It was reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and ministers targeted Defence Minister Yoav Gallant in the security cabinet, which met hours after Israel received the bodies of 6 Israeli prisoners in Gaza.

According to the Times of Israel, Gallant told the Security Cabinet, which met hours after the country’s largest trade union called for a general strike to demand a ceasefire and citizens held protests demanding the same, that Israel’s demand to retain control of the Philadelphi Corridor between Egypt and Gaza was ‘an unnecessary restriction we are imposing on ourselves’. Gallant warned that by insisting on this, the government ‘will not achieve its war aims’.

On Thursday last week, the Israeli security cabinet decided to continue the Israeli occupation of the Philadelphi Corridor. Following this decision, the bodies of 6 Israeli prisoners were found in Gaza. Thursday’s decision was made on the assumption that there is time, but there is no time if we want the hostages alive. It is a moral disgrace that we are giving priority to the Philadelphi Corridor at the expense of the lives of the hostages,’ Gallant told the ministers at the meeting.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich was quoted as saying: ‘If we give in to Hamas’ demands, as Gallant wants, we will lose the war.

These comments reportedly drew the ire of Netanyahu and other ministers. The Prime Minister reportedly told Gallant that he would stand by his demands despite the killing of six hostages, apparently executed by soldiers approaching their location in a tunnel under Rafah, Gaza.

Netanyahu reportedly claimed that if Israel abandoned the Philadelphi Corridor, ‘the hostages would be taken to Sinai and from there to Iran’, and recalled that the United States had agreed to Israel’s Philadelphi demand, asking ‘why do you object?

Both Justice Minister Yariv Levin and Foreign Minister Israel Katz reportedly accused Gallant of trying to create a dynamic in which Hamas would extract concessions from Israel as a result of the hostage-taking.

Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer reportedly said that a reversal of the Philadelphi decision would ‘encourage murder’, adding that Israel ‘must extract a very high price from Hamas for killing the hostages’.

Netanyahu also reportedly ordered the government to prepare proposals within 48 hours for a strong response to Hamas over the execution of the six hostages.

The Walla news website reported that after the meeting, Netanyahu discussed with people close to him ‘taking advantage of the turmoil’ to fire the defence minister.

Others close to the prime minister’s office told public broadcaster Kan on Sunday that Netanyahu would not fire Gallant any time soon, but that the prime minister and his inner circle were furious, saying Gallant had ‘lost his mind’.

‘The decision is binding on Gallant’

On the other hand, Netanyahu held a press conference with Egypt on Israel’s occupation of the 14-kilometre Philadelphi Corridor on the Gaza border and criticism that he had blocked the prisoner swap deal.

Netanyahu claimed that the attacks on Gaza reach their target through the Philadelphi Corridor and said, ‘We will not withdraw from here. We must all insist on staying here,’ he said.

Netanyahu claimed that when Israel withdrew from Gaza nearly 20 years ago, it talked about the importance of the Philadelphi Corridor, arguing that the failure to control the corridor was due to the fact that there was no international or national legitimacy to occupy Gaza and seize Rafah.

Referring to Defence Minister Gallant, Netanyahu said he was ‘shocked’ to hear some Israeli officials call for an end to the occupation of the Philadelphi Corridor following the discovery of the bodies of 6 Israeli prisoners in Gaza last week, adding that the decision had been taken by the cabinet and was ‘binding on everyone’.

Netanyahu also addressed the protests and criticism against him and his government, saying that ‘no one is as committed to the issue of rescuing (Israeli) prisoners as I am, and no one can tell me anything about it’.

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MIDDLE EAST

General strike against Netanyahu government begins

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Hundreds of thousands of people in Israel continued to protest overnight against Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and his government for refusing to sign the Gaza ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal. The largest trade union, Hisdatrut, went on strike today. Flights at Ben Gurion Airport were suspended for a limited time and tram services were halted at some points. Shops in shopping centres were closed.

Following the announcement that the bodies of 6 Israeli prisoners had been found in Gaza, protests began against Netanyahu and his government, which has been criticised for sabotaging the ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal.

The centre of the demonstrations was Menachem Begin and Kaplan Streets, where the Ministry of Defence is located in the capital Tel Aviv. According to the groups organising the demonstration, around 300,000 people took part in the protests in Tel Aviv, while more than 500,000 took part in demonstrations across the country. Protesters carrying Israeli flags also carried banners, posters and placards against Prime Minister Netanyahu and politicians in his government.

Demanding the immediate return of Israeli prisoners to their homes, the demonstrators played drums and whistles and carried banners reading ‘All home now’ and ‘Help’. The demonstrators chanted slogans such as “(Netanyahu) Bibi release the prisoners” and “You are in charge, you are guilty”.

After the demonstration organised here, the groups headed towards the main roads of the city. Israeli police, stationed behind iron barriers, tried to prevent the marchers from passing. Scuffles broke out at many points.

The demonstrators, who overcame the police barriers by using different routes, closed the Ayalon motorway, the main artery of the city, to two-way traffic. The demonstrators set fires at many points on the motorway and threw fireworks on more than one occasion. Israeli police used mounted troops and sound bombs against the demonstrators. The Israeli police, who clashed with the demonstrators, announced that they had arrested 15 people in Tel Aviv.

The marches and protests in Tel Aviv, Haifa and West Jerusalem, as well as in various parts of the country, demanded the resignation of the government and the return of the prisoners. Thousands of people gathered in Haifa, blocked the city centre junction and set fire to it. There were also scuffles when Israeli police tried to disperse the demonstrators. There were reports that demonstrators across the country blocked traffic on some roads and intersections during the protests.

General strike begins

As part of the general strike declared this morning by the country’s largest trade union, Hisdatrut, it was reported that departing flights at Ben Gurion Airport, Israel’s gateway to the world, were disrupted between 08:00 and 10:00, while arriving flights operated.

Israel Airports Authority spokeswoman Lisa Drir said that Ben Gurion Airport was open today, with 60,000 people expected to travel, and that all airlines had rescheduled their flights between 08:00 and 10:00 local time.

Queues formed at the airport’s departure counters early this morning. Departure screens at the airport showed that some flights had been delayed, but then flights were scheduled to depart on time.

Shops and businesses in the Mamilla shopping centre in West Jerusalem joined the strike and lowered their shutters. More than half of the shops and businesses in the Azrieli shopping centre in central Tel Aviv joined the strike and closed, but the rest of the shops and businesses were open today.

It was reported that some public transport bus companies and rail services will not operate until 12:00 noon, and trains and trams will operate at low capacity in some cities.

It was noted that public companies such as Israel Airports Authority, Israel Ports Authority, Haifa, Usdud (Ashdod), Hadera Ports, Israel Electricity Company and Israel Postal Services participated in today’s strike.

It was reported that some universities and municipalities and some national banks were on strike today, and organisations such as the Immigration Authority, the Tax Authority and the Parks and Gardens Authority will not go to work today.

It was reported that hospitals will work on a weekend basis, kindergartens and nurseries will be closed and schools will offer half-day classes.

It was reported that private companies from many sectors such as insurance, shopping mall operators, textiles and telecommunications in Israel also joined the strike today, criticising the government for the ‘political and economic situation’. It was seen that some shopping centres across Israel were closed today.

On the other hand, parallel to the strike, it was reported that thousands of people demonstrated in dozens of places across Israel, demanding that the government sign the Gaza ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement.

Government application to the court

Meanwhile, in Israel, the government petitioned the National Labour Court to stop the strike on the grounds that it was ‘politically motivated’ and not based on an industrial dispute.

The application, made at the request of Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, a far-right extremist, argued that ‘the strike is disrupting the functioning of the state, causing disruptions in health, education, transport and security in the extraordinary situation the country is going through’.

It was announced that the court would meet at noon today to discuss the state’s request to ‘suspend the strike’.

In response to the government’s request, Hisdatrut president Arnon Bar-David told the National Labour Court that the strike would end at 6 p.m. local time today.

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