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DIPLOMACY

Eyes on the China-Arab summit

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The official state agency of Saudi Arabia (SPA) announced that Chinese President Xi Jinping would visit the country on December 7-9.

The purpose of the visit was defined as “strengthening the historical relations and distinguished strategic partnership that connects Saudi Arabia and China.” It was also noted that King Salman and Xi Jinping would preside over the Saudi Arabian-Chinese summit, which Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will attend.

It was reported that the Chinese President would also attend the “Riyadh-GCC-China Summit” and the “Riyadh-China Arab Cooperation and Development Summit” with the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).

Both summits, which will be attended by heads of state and leaders from the Gulf and Arab regions, will discuss ways to advance the relations in all fields and various aspects of economic cooperation.

Relations with Washington are strained

 Xi’s visit coincides with growing tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United States, particularly over energy policy.

Despite Riyadh’s refusal to condemn Russia for Ukraine intervention despite Western pressure and US President Biden’s demand to increase oil production, OPEC+’s decision to cut output by two million barrels a day in October brought relations to a breaking point.

The Biden-Harris Administration accuses Saudi Arabia of supporting Russia in the Ukraine war.

Experts believe the tension between the Biden administration and OPEC+, especially the Gulf countries, will increase even more.

Head of the Riyadh-based Gulf Research Center, Saudi analyst Abdulaziz Sager stated that Arab states have alternatives to their Western allies, emphasizing that their relations are primarily based on economic interests.

In this case, the visit of China, Riyadh’s largest trading partner, draws attention.

The developing relations between China and Saudi Arabia in trade, security, and technology have alarmed the United States. The allegations that Saudi Arabia could agree with China to trade oil in the renminbi have increased the uneasiness. Saudi Arabia is China’s largest supplier of crude oil.

It is stated that the developing Chinese-Saudi Arabian relations have risks of exacerbating the rift between Washington and Riyadh.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Saudi Vision 2030

The Ambassador of Saudi Arabia to China also wrote an article on bilateral relations before Xi Jinping’s visit.

In the article published in China Daily, relations between Saudi Arabia and China are described as “an upsurge based on the development of trust, mutual respect, common interests and cooperation since 1990”.

While it is emphasized that bilateral relations are based on mutual respect, understanding, and cooperation, it is also stated that they are compatible with the developments taking place in the world.

As it is said that bilateral relations have been growing and accelerating since Xi Jinping visited Saudi Arabia in 2016, attention is drawn to the harmony between Riyadh’s 2030 Vision and China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

The article emphasizes that the most crucial element in bilateral relations is economic: “Saudi Arabia has become China’s first trade partner in the Middle East and North Africa region. Similarly, Saudi Arabia is the first among the countries that export oil to China, while China is Saudi Arabia’s first trading partner.”

According to the latest economic data, the trade capacity between Saudi Arabia and China increased by 37.4 percent in the first 10 months of 2022 compared to the same period of the previous year, exceeding $97 billion. In addition, in this period, Saudi Arabia’s exports to China have increased by 45 percent to 66 billion dollars, while China’s exports to Saudi Arabia increased by 23.3 percent to 30 billion dollars.

DIPLOMACY

Ukraine, US, Israel in talks to send up to eight Patriot systems to Ukraine

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The US, Israel and Ukraine are in talks to supply Kiev with up to eight Patriot air defence systems to significantly improve its ability to counter Russian air strikes.

According to the Financial Times (FT), the deal, which has yet to be finalised, would see the Patriot systems shipped from Israel to the US before being delivered to Ukraine.

The outlines of the deal, which would mark a shift in Israel’s relationship with Moscow, have been discussed between ministers and senior officials from the three countries, according to five people familiar with the negotiations.

Israel announced in April that it would retire eight Patriot batteries with more than 30 years of service and replace them with more advanced systems.

However, the batteries used in the Gaza war have not yet been decommissioned amid fears that tensions with Hezbollah in the north could escalate into a full-scale war.

If such a transfer were to take place, it would represent a significant change in Ukraine’s defence capabilities. The country currently has at least four Patriot systems supplied by both the United States and Germany.

Ukraine has frequently asked its Western allies to supply it with air defence systems, particularly US-made Patriots.

Last week, the US announced that it was halting deliveries of Patriot interceptors to other countries in order to prioritise deliveries to Ukraine.

Israel has been wary of taking sides in Ukraine because of Moscow’s influence in Syria.

But according to the FT, US officials have tried to persuade Benjamin Netanyahu’s government that Russia’s increasingly close ties with Iran, particularly in the area of military cooperation, are a more pressing concern.

However, the sources said that while the transfer of all eight systems was being discussed, not all of them might be sent to Ukraine. Three people familiar with the discussions said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba had held talks on the issue with his US counterpart, Antony Blinken, in recent weeks.

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan has also met at least twice with the Ukrainian president’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, the three sources said.

Kuleba did not confirm the talks, but told the FT: “Ukraine continues to work with various countries around the world to acquire additional Patriot systems. We once again call on all countries that have such systems to provide them to Ukraine,” he added.

In addition to the US-Ukraine talks, a person familiar with the diplomatic situation said there were also direct talks between Tel Aviv and Kiev on the transfer of Patriots.

Israel’s M901 PAC-2 batteries are older than most of the Patriot systems currently in Ukraine. But military analysts say the older model is still fully compatible with the newer ones.

According to a person familiar with the size of Israel’s arsenal, Tel Aviv has plenty of interceptors for use with these batteries, which Kiev also needs.

Analysts also said that Israel’s older interceptors have a longer range and a larger warhead than the new PAC-3 model.

Former officials and analysts said the Israeli systems would most likely be sold back to the United States, which could send them to Ukraine.

But they added that the real question was whether Tel Aviv was prepared to alienate its one-time ally Russia, despite Moscow’s increasingly close relationship with Tehran.

Israel has previously rejected Ukrainian requests for air defence systems. It also has an agreement with Russia that gives Israeli jets access to Syrian airspace.

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DIPLOMACY

Polish president meets Xi Jinping in China

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Polish President Andrzej Duda met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Saturday as part of a state visit. The two leaders attended a signing ceremony in Beijing on Monday, CGTN reported.

“Bilateral exchanges and cooperation have expanded and deepened in all fields, benefiting the people of both countries. China will work with Poland to uphold the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, fulfil the commitments made at the time of the establishment of diplomatic relations, and take the relationship to greater heights,” Xi said.

The Polish leader said he had raised Russia’s war in Ukraine and the crisis on Poland’s border with Belarus during the talks, which also focused on developing economic ties.

Duda later said: “Thanks to the fact that President [Xi] called me his friend, which is a great honour for me, I am very happy to be able to contribute to the development of [Polish-Chinese] relations together with the president.”

Noting that his second and final term in office will end next year, Duda said he “hopes that these relations will be built in the future…[and] will always be based on common ideals…[and] mutual respect”.

Experts believe that this visit, which will last until Wednesday, will help strengthen China-Poland relations and increase economic cooperation between the two countries.

Duda and his wife Agata Kornhauser-Duda arrived in Beijing on Saturday at the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping. Duda and his wife were met at the airport by Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Deng Li and other officials, China Central Television reported.

Duda is expected to ask for visa exemptions for Poles travelling to China and seek ways to increase Polish exports to China to balance trade relations.

Polish state statistics reported that 13.9 per cent of the country’s imports came from China last year, while Polish exports to China were only a fraction of that amount.

A number of trade agreements are expected to be signed during the visit.

On Wednesday, Duda will fly to the financial centre of Shanghai to attend the Polish-Chinese Business Forum.

During his visit, Xi will hold talks with Duda to map out the future development of China-Poland relations, have in-depth exchanges on issues of common concern and jointly attend the signing ceremony of cooperation documents, Lin Jian, a Foreign Ministry spokesman, said at a routine press briefing last Thursday.

China is willing to work with Poland to take this visit as an opportunity to deepen political mutual trust, expand exchanges and cooperation in various fields, jointly pioneer high-quality cooperation on the Belt and Road Initiative and China’s cooperation with Central and Eastern European countries, and continuously enrich the connotation of the China-Poland comprehensive strategic partnership, Lin said.

Cui Hongjian, a professor with the Academy of Regional and Global Governance at Beijing Foreign Studies University, told the Global Times on Sunday that China’s relations with Central and Eastern Europe have remained stable this year, and Poland sees this visit as a way to boost cooperation in both political and economic fields.

Cui said strengthening cooperation with China would not only benefit Poland’s economy, but also help Warsaw increase its influence within the EU. Although Poland and the United States have been in close contact in recent years, Duda’s visit shows that the Eastern European country is seeking balanced diplomacy to build close ties with China as well, Cui said.

Chinese experts also said that while Beijing and Brussels have a complex relationship and the EU has threatened to launch a potential trade war against China, Poland could play a positive role in negotiating bilateral relations between China and the bloc.

Janusz Piechocinski, Poland’s former deputy prime minister, said in an interview with the Global Times: “China will remain a powerful engine of the global economy. Trade wars with China could reduce demand and limit opportunities for trade expansion. We need more cooperation and less confrontation, a more practical dialogue aimed at solving problems rather than exacerbating them through protectionist measures.

Experts expect the Russia-Ukraine crisis to be on the agenda during Duda’s visit, as Poland has thrown its full weight behind Ukraine. Although China’s position on the Ukraine crisis differs from Poland’s, Beijing has been in close contact with Warsaw since the beginning of the crisis. In March this year, Li Hui, the Chinese government’s special representative for Eurasian affairs, embarked on a second round of shuttle diplomacy to find a political solution to the Ukrainian crisis, visiting Poland in the process.

This is Duda’s third visit to China as President of Poland. The first was in November 2015, after which he became the only elected EU leader to attend the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics in February 2022. Xi also visited Poland in 2016.

“I try to maintain friendly relations with China, Poland has always had good relations with China and I want this to continue,” Duda said in an interview with private Radio Zet on Friday.

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DIPLOMACY

American troops begin withdrawal from Niger

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Following the decision by Niger’s military government to expel US forces from the country, the withdrawal of US troops serving in the country and the process of moving their equipment has officially begun.

According to the AA report, which cites local sources, US troops are being withdrawn from the country following the termination of the military agreement that allowed military and civilian personnel from the US Department of Defense to serve in Niger. It was learnt that 269 soldiers and tonnes of equipment had been sent to the US in the first phase.

Senior US officials had travelled to Niger in March to ensure that the US would maintain its base in the country despite the suspension of military and development aid to Niger’s coup government. But after three days of waiting, the US delegation left without meeting the country’s military commander, General Abdurrahmane Tchiani, and on 17 March Niger announced the end of the military partnership Washington had come to secure and demanded that US troops leave the country immediately.

It was then announced that the US would leave the country completely by mid-September.

There are around 1000 US troops in Niger. Near the city of Agadez, at the southern end of the Sahara, there is a drone base called ‘Niger Air Base 201’.

Niger 201 is the second largest base in Africa after the permanent base in Djibouti, where the US also conducts drone operations.

Built and funded by the US and owned by the Nigerian army, the base has been operational since 2019 and is equipped with high-tech satellite communications systems.

Niger 201, which is leased from the Niger state for 10 years, is considered the largest and most expensive UAV base in the US.

The US, which spent $110 million on its construction and $30 million on its annual maintenance, uses the base as its main intelligence and surveillance centre in the Sahel.

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