Diplomacy
French historian Emmanuel Todd analyzes Western nihilism and moral collapse in Japan
French intellectual, historian, and anthropologist Emmanuel Todd visited Japan at the invitation of Hiroshima University President Mitsuo Ochi to evaluate the crisis facing the Western world and Japan’s place within this landscape.
Todd, who made the visit on October 18 after postponing it for a year due to health issues, began his speech by comparing the present day with his first visit to Hiroshima 33 years ago.
Todd described the atmosphere of 1992 with the following words:
“Optimism prevailed at that time. Communism had collapsed, and the Cold War was over. The nuclear attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki were terrible, but they seemed to belong to the past, a mistake of humanity and the US. The dominant values of the era pointed toward a liberal and prosperous West.”
However, noting that the intervening years have completely reversed this picture, the French historian emphasized that freedoms are currently regressing in the West and living standards are declining.
Todd illustrated the situation in France using his own career as an example:
“Although my publisher, Gallimard, is one of France’s most prestigious institutions, I can no longer express myself on public television channels like France-Inter or France 2 as I used to. This is akin to being banned from appearing on NHK screens in Japan. My reputation in Japan protected me against the new state authoritarianism in France.”
Deindustrialization
Devoting significant attention to the Ukraine war, Todd argued that this conflict has exposed the West’s industrial weakness.
Stating that the Western alliance exaggerated its own power against Russia, the author expressed that gross domestic product (GDP) data is misleading:
“On the eve of the war, Russia’s GDP was only 3% of the West’s total. Despite this, Russia managed to produce more weapons than the entire West. The war demonstrated that the measurement we call GDP does not reflect actual production capacity and revealed our industrial weakness.”
Stating that an education crisis lies at the root of this production insufficiency, Todd drew attention to the collapse in the US engineering training capacity.
He noted that Russia, with a population much smaller than the US, trains more engineers, which is the key to victory on the ground.
Todd stated that Germany and Japan have maintained their engineering capacity, but the US, the UK, and France have regressed in this area.
Explaining this collapse in education and social structure through the “religious mutation” theory, the anthropologist argued that the Protestant ethic that constituted the West’s power has vanished.
Todd defined the social evolution of religion in three stages: Active religion: The period where belief and worship persist. Zombie religion: The period where belief is lost, but religious morals and habits (discipline, work ethic) keep society together. Irreligion: The period where religious values and the ideologies derived from them are completely erased, and the individual becomes isolated.
Todd stated that the West is currently in the “irreligion” stage, which breeds nihilism, and made the following observation:
“The individual has been deprived of fundamental values. The fear of emptiness turns into the glorification of emptiness, that is, a passion for destruction. The current mood of the West is partly this: Nihilism. This leads to a passion for war in the mind and a preference for war in geopolitics.”
Ukraine and Gaza
Stating that Western powers view themselves as being on the “side of justice” even in wars they have provoked, Todd reiterated that the root cause of the Ukraine crisis was NATO expansion.
Noting that this war is defensive for Russia, the historian said, “It is clear to me that the Americans and Europeans are aggressors who have advanced to within a thousand kilometers of Moscow. But what is truly fascinating is that these aggressors believe they are the ones under attack. There is an element of madness in our situation in Europe.”
Criticizing the situation in Gaza in harsh terms as well, Todd suggested that Israel is being remote-controlled by the US. Citing the inconsistency in Donald Trump’s policies as an example of “moral zero point,” the author used the following expressions:
“Trump can dream of evacuating Gaza and turning it into a coastline one day, and the next day order Israel to stop and demand a peace prize. Wanting genocide one day and wanting a Nobel Peace Prize the next is proof of moral destitution.”
Stating that the pro-war attitude within Europe is particularly evident in Protestant countries (the UK, Scandinavia, Northern Germany), Todd argued that Catholic countries (Italy, Spain) are more moderate.
Todd noted that Protestantism’s rejection of the material world and visuality leaves a “great void” behind when belief is lost. In contrast, he expressed that Catholicism sanctifies the world and art, so even if belief fades, the sense of “the beauty of the world” remains.
Todd evaluated Japan’s position in this context as well:
“Japan reaching the zero point of religion has created a mood more similar to Catholic countries than Protestant ones. The importance Japan places on nature and beauty protects it from the danger of nihilism. This is what I felt when I visited Miyajima with my daughter Louise: The sense of the world’s beauty is still alive here.”
Call for a “Realistic Dialogue” on Nuclear Weapons
In the conversation between Hiroshima University President Mitsuo Ochi and Todd following the conference, the subject of nuclear weapons was raised.
Despite President Ochi’s anti-nuclear stance, Todd defended the “balance of terror” thesis.
Todd explained his view on nuclear weapons as follows:
“The balance of terror is better than asymmetry. That is, a balance between countries possessing nuclear weapons is preferable to a situation where one has them and the other does not. Nuclear weapons are now a reality, and this problem cannot be resolved solely through a distinction between good and evil.”
President Ochi, recalling Hiroshima’s historical legacy, replied, “Nuclear deterrence is a difficult concept for Hiroshima citizens to accept, both logically and ethically.”
To Ochi’s question regarding what strategy he would pursue if a movement were launched for the complete abolition of nuclear weapons, Todd’s answer was short and clear:
“I never think about impossible things. Life is too short for that.”
Diplomacy
FIFA abandons $4.2 billion commercial stake sale following widespread revolt
FIFA and Gianni Infantino have backed down from plans to sell a stake in the organization’s commercial and event operations following widespread backlash.
In a statement issued late Friday night, the embattled FIFA president said:
“After carefully listening to all views, it has become clear that this project, regardless of the level of support, causes divisions that are now contrary to the interests of the objective originally established. Our goal has always been, and will always be, to unite and improve. As a result, this proposal will not be implemented.”
Infantino’s proposal met with fierce resistance from UEFA, CONCACAF, and the Asian Football Confederation (AFC).
UEFA indicated that all 55 of its members would boycott FIFA competitions, including the World Cup, if the plans remained on the table.
In its statement, FIFA noted that “nobody is selling football,” and while asserting that it “acknowledges and respects the feedback and concerns expressed publicly,” emphasized that it would continue to implement suggestions.
It added that it “reaffirms its commitment to an open and democratic process of consultation.”
Shortly after FIFA issued its statement, the AFC released its own declaration of solidarity with UEFA and the Confederation of North, Central America and Caribbean Association Football (CONCACAF).
Infantino subsequently suffered two major internal blows.
First, his adviser Carlos Cordeiro resigned from his position, sharply criticizing the plan in a statement as “a bad deal for FIFA member associations, a bad deal for football, and a bad deal for the long-term future of the game.”
Then, FIFA Chief Operating Officer Kevin Lamour told the Associated Press that staff felt “deceived” by Infantino and that after raising the issue, he would “sleep better, even at the cost of losing his job.”
Lamour said:
“This is the project of a single person. Leaving aside that this project should not proceed… it is now time for the political leaders of world football to ask themselves the right questions and make the right decisions.”
These developments left Infantino cornered, and by Friday afternoon, numerous figures within the organization—speaking to The Athletic on condition of anonymity to protect their jobs—believed it was no longer a question of “if” the cord would be cut, but “when.”
Joshua Kushner’s venture capital firm Thrive had not withdrawn from the deal as of Friday night, but that became moot when FIFA management ultimately decided to kill the project via a public statement.
Joshua Kushner is the brother of Jared Kushner, the son-in-law of Donald Trump.
On Tuesday, world football’s governing body had announced its intention to establish FIFA Forward Enterprises (FFE), a new private entity to manage its flagship events, including the World Cup and the Club World Cup, with plans to sell a 21% minority stake in FFE to external investors.
The sale was targeted to generate $4.2 billion (£3.2 billion) in revenue. FIFA stated that this amount could be immediately distributed to its 211 member associations under a new funding stream named the “FIFA Fast-Forward Program” (FFFP).
Under the plan, FIFA’s total development funding would have exceeded $10 billion over the next four years.
Despite mounting criticism in recent days, FIFA confirmed that if member associations opposed the FFE plan but the proposal was accepted, the dissenting federations would each receive $20 million (£14.9 million) for the 2027–30 cycle, regardless of whether shares in FFE were sold to private investors (to be followed by $22 million for 2031–34 and $24 million for 2035–38).
However, had a given member association accepted the FFE proposal, it would have received $40 million for the 2027–30 period, with subsequent payouts remaining the same.
The three confederations that explicitly took a stand against FIFA’s plan represent 137 of the 211 FIFA member associations.
FIFA had stated that for the proposal to move forward, it required the approval of a majority of the 211 member associations as well as the 37-member FIFA Council, which consists of Infantino and eight FIFA vice presidents.
Strategic reactions and leadership crisis
South American football confederation CONMEBOL did not reject the plans in a statement on Friday, but noted that financial and commercial decisions “must always serve the interests of football and never take precedence over the essence of the game.”
According to a report by The Athletic, Infantino’s future leadership of FIFA was called into question during UEFA and CONCACAF meetings held on Thursday.
Infantino assumed the FIFA presidency in February 2016, succeeding Sepp Blatter, and was expected to run unopposed in the next election scheduled for March 2027.
There is also talk among European officials of putting forward Nasser Al-Khelaifi, the Qatari CEO of beIN Media, to run against Infantino.
Lise Klaveness, President of the Norwegian Football Federation, told VG: “My clear impression right now is that he has suffered a major loss of trust. We did not vote for him last time and were skeptical about this. There are many good aspects to FIFA, but if you take a lax approach to governance principles and rules, you lose trust quickly.”
Diplomacy
Defense Priorities director warns US air strategy in Middle East faces tactical limits
The collapse of a tentative memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran, coupled with the diminishing strategic returns of American air power, has left the United States locked in an unsustainable, low-intensity conflict with Iran, according to Benjamin Friedman, Policy Director at the Washington-based think tank Defense Priorities.
Speaking in an interview on the YouTube channel Harici with host Sarp Sinan Hacır, Friedman attributed the failure of the short-lived US-Iran memorandum primarily to the Trump administration’s diplomatic missteps, vague draft language, and unrealistic expectations regarding a comprehensive settlement.
“Both sides really deserve some blame, but the Trump administration deserves the bulk of the blame for drafting an agreement that was so vague on key terms,” Friedman said, citing ambiguities surrounding the timeline for unfreezing Iranian assets and the scope of American commitments to restrain Israeli military operations in Lebanon.
Friedman emphasized that deep-seated mistrust in Tehran, exacerbated by repeated instances where diplomatic engagement was followed by Israeli or American military strikes, led Iranian negotiators to adopt an unyielding posture. At the same time, he noted that Iran likely miscalculated by using disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz to aggressively force leverage.
“The Trump administration remained intent on this sort of grand bargain that would restrain Iran seeking weapons development… and I think they continue to misread the Iranian willingness to sign that kind of deal,” Friedman noted, adding that Tehran viewed its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz as essential despite the risk of provoking further strikes.
Expressing deep skepticism over the prospects for a lasting diplomatic breakthrough, Friedman criticized the administration’s reliance on informal envoys such as Steve Bannon and Jared Kushner over professional diplomatic channels, predicting that the baseline outcome will remain an unpredictable, episodic conflict.
“What’s more likely is a kind of on-off-again kind of war—sort of what we’re in now, where we have occasional strikes, with the United States perhaps by accident adopting the Israeli model of ‘mowing the lawn’ periodically,” Friedman said.
Addressing the efficacy of US air power, Friedman argued that military operations against Iranian targets have reached a point of diminishing returns. While early strikes successfully eliminated critical high-value assets—such as over-the-horizon radar systems that targeted anti-ship missiles—Iran’s ballistic missile and long-range drone capabilities remain largely intact and operational.
He pointed to a recent strike on a base hosting US personnel in Jordan, launched from western Iran over a distance exceeding 1,000 kilometers, as evidence of Tehran’s sustained strike precision and the tactical limits of American interdiction efforts.
“The war is a failure for air power even in a tactical sense,” Friedman stated. “Initially, we looked at it and said we had a lot of success in destroying targets, but as more information came out, it turned out they had maybe more than half of their missiles and launchers survive the initial phase of the war.”
Friedman observed that the global proliferation of low-cost, high-precision guidance technology has permanently altered the strategic landscape, neutralizing the traditional invulnerability of forward-deployed US installations. “The precise effects of air power that used to be almost a monopoly of the United States… is actually making our posture in the region less sustainable,” he said, warning that similar vulnerabilities would be vastly amplified in any potential high-intensity conflict with China.
As an alternative to open-ended military engagement, Friedman suggested that Washington consider a complete military withdrawal from the region, even if it entails accepting Iranian transit fees on commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. “The cost of preventing that through perpetual outbursts of warfare is much higher than just accepting it,” he noted.
Turning to regional dynamics, Friedman addressed Israel’s current absence from active strike operations against Iran, characterizing it as a calculated move to preserve its own air defense interceptors while relying on Washington to bear the operational and political burdens of containment.
On European security and the broader alliance structure, Friedman offered a critical assessment of the NATO summit in Ankara and the administration’s “NATO 3.0” concept. He described the white paper led by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth as an effort to coerce European states into escalating defense expenditures and purchasing American hardware under the threat of reduced security guarantees, rather than executing a structured, strategic US posture adjustment.
“This is not a real US withdrawal; it’s a kind of pressure to up your loyalty in a particular way,” Friedman said, noting that major European powers such as Germany, France, and the UK lack a compelling existential incentive to construct independent, large-scale conventional war-fighting capabilities.
Regarding bilateral relations with Ankara, Friedman noted that US-Turkish tensions have eased considerably following the shift in American posture in Syria and progress toward resolving long-standing friction points, including the F-35 program and S-400 procurement. He added that while Israeli leadership under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has expressed frustration over Washington’s constructive engagement with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the White House has maintained its strategic course despite pressure from domestic pro-Israel lobbying groups.
Addressing internal Republican Party dynamics, Friedman highlighted the evolving public stance of Vice President J.D. Vance, whose cautious criticism of Israeli influence and emphasis on divergent national interests reflects broader ideological shifts within the conservative base.
“Vance is more representative of the shift in the Republican Party,” Friedman said. “He’s criticizing them in a limited way and saying, ‘Our interests are different.’ From the perspective of those of us who would like the United States to have a more distant relationship from Israel, it’s progress.”
Looking ahead to the upcoming US midterm elections, Friedman anticipated that a loss of congressional control by the Republican Party would severely curtail the administration’s domestic executive overreach, though its structural impact on foreign policy execution and Middle Eastern operations would remain comparatively limited.
Diplomacy
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham pledges full support to Ukraine in meeting with Zelenskyy
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham has met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Portsmouth, England.
Zelenskyy is the first world leader Burnham has met in person since taking office, with the prime minister committing to building a “firm partnership” between the United Kingdom and Ukraine.
Demonstrating their support, the two leaders toured a military base in Portsmouth where 200 Ukrainian troops are currently undergoing naval training exercises.
Burnham described his meeting with the Ukrainian president as “warm” and said he plans to visit Ukraine soon.
“We will build this together and address the various issues President Zelenskyy is facing, many of which we discussed today,” Burnham said.
The meeting follows an announcement by London that it will share intellectual property rights to assist Kyiv’s war effort.
The new prime minister announced that the UK will share the “Stone Cloak” electronic warfare system—which is fitted to drones to prevent detection—and will assist Ukraine in mass-producing the technology.
Burnham has focused primarily on domestic matters since replacing Keir Starmer, who faced criticism from elements within his own party for spending too much time abroad and focusing heavily on foreign affairs.
However, Burnham sought to signal continuity in Britain’s policy toward Ukraine. In one of his first phone calls after becoming prime minister last week, Burnham invited Zelenskyy to visit the UK “as soon as possible.”
Starmer spent his final full day as prime minister in Kyiv, where he announced £255 million in funding for Ukraine.
Speaking to Sky on Monday, Zelenskyy said his telephone conversation with Burnham had been “very good.”
The Ukrainian leader noted that Starmer had previously assured him that “the new government would maintain the policy of supporting Ukraine during the war.”
The new prime minister told the Ukrainian leader it was “no coincidence” that he was his first international visitor since moving into Downing Street.
“The purpose of this is to send a very clear message. We stand 100% with Ukraine, I personally stand 100% with you, and I will fully deliver on every commitment this country has made to Ukraine,” Burnham said.
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