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German elections pave the way for a potential CDU-SPD grand coalition

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After the 23 February German federal elections, all eyes turned to the coalition scenarios and the program of the next chancellor. With the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) emerging as the leading party, it is almost certain that CDU leader Friedrich Merz will become the next chancellor and form the government.

At this point, since the CDU has not been able to secure a majority, the question of who will knock on the door for a coalition is on the agenda. Merz and his party, which closed the door to the second-ranked Alternative for Germany (AfD), are likely to mobilize for a “grand coalition” with the SPD.

Looking at the numbers, the fact that the FDP, the junior partner of the previous traffic-light coalition, and the new left-wing party, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), failed to pass the threshold and are now out of parliament seems to favor the CDU-SPD coalition. With these two parties out of parliament, the possible grand coalition automatically has a majority of seats.

On the other hand, if the BSW, which seems to have fallen short of the threshold by around 2,000 votes, manages to enter parliament after objections, the CDU-SPD coalition will need a third party. The biggest third-party candidate for such a coalition seems to be the Greens.

The SPD’s worst result since the Second World War also weakens the party’s hand in a possible coalition. Although Chancellor Olaf Scholz continues to serve as a caretaker, it seems less likely that he will remain at the head of the party. The most likely candidate to lead the SPD is Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.

Pistorius’ personal popularity, supported by the media, seems to even surpass Merz: Public broadcaster ARD asked voters which candidate they would most like to see become chancellor. Among those nominated by the parties, Friedrich Merz came first with 34%, but the person with the strongest voter support (though not one of the main candidates) was Boris Pistorius with 47%.

Party co-chairman Lars Klingbeil will head the SPD’s parliamentary group. So far, Klingbeil has been tight-lipped about whether the party would accept an alliance with the CDU.

In any case, there are other, bigger problems beyond the numbers. Some disputes between the CDU and the SPD, and between the CDU and the Greens, could come to the fore in a possible coalition. These include the war in Ukraine, transatlantic relations, the issue of migration and defense spending, and the debate on the constitutional debt brake.

On the issue of migration, for example, the CDU and its leader Merz have shown that they will not hesitate to side with the AfD. According to the exit polls of public broadcaster ZDF, voters made it clear that their biggest concerns were immigration and security (44%), followed by the state of the economy (35%).

The debate on defense spending and the constitutional debt brake could be Merz’s soft underbelly, since the CDU, which is also fiscally “conservative,” has long opposed any change or relaxation of the debt brake clause, which limits state debt to 0.35% of GDP. Merz had signaled before the elections that this position could be relaxed.

The two parties that will play a critical role in the new parliament, Die Linke (Left Party) and AfD, will also be decisive. The Left Party is in favor of lifting the debt brake but also wants to reduce the defense budget and opposes Merz’s platform on many other issues, including taxation and immigration. This could make any deal involving this party extremely difficult.

The AfD, on the other hand, wants to stick to the country’s strict debt limits but is in favor of increasing defense spending. And given the party’s warm relations with the new US government across the Atlantic, it is unlikely that Alice Weidel and her colleagues will oppose Trump’s demand for more European defense spending.

The failure of the “mainstream” parties to secure a two-thirds majority in parliament will also make it more difficult to pass the debt-ceiling reform. According to Bloomberg , this could lead to “some creative alternatives.”

The new chancellor could ask parliament to temporarily suspend the constitutional rule and allow higher spending. The most important risk to watch in such a scenario would be any litigation at the country’s Federal Constitutional Court. While it is difficult to predict how the court will react, it may be more inclined to an immediate suspension, especially given the current geopolitical challenges.

In addition, Markus Söder, leader of the CSU, the CDU’s sister party in Bavaria, had declared before the elections that he was also cold to an alliance with the SPD. One can imagine what the CSU, which does not even accept the SPD, would say about a federal coalition with the Greens.

However, the Greens seem to have left the door open for a coalition. When asked whether the Greens would contact the CDU for a possible coalition, Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck said that it was Merz’s prerogative to initiate such talks, but he also made it clear that the Greens were willing to participate in a coalition.

“This is the only possibility,” Habeck told public broadcaster ZDF. “What this result means has to be understood: We are in a very difficult situation,” Habeck said.

German business executives have already begun to assess the election results in terms of “stability” and “competitiveness.” Christian Bruch, CEO of Siemens Energy, said in an emailed statement: “It is important that the democratic center parties form a stable government as soon as possible to address these challenges as soon as possible. Germany must quickly regain its competitiveness. Steps in energy policy are vital for this,” he said.

Bruch’s comments are in line with a statement made last night by Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing, speaking in his capacity as head of Germany’s banking lobby. “Germany now needs a government that is willing to act and can do so quickly. The challenges facing our country are enormous: the economy urgently needs a fresh start with fundamental reforms,” Sewing said.

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BfV pauses AfD far-right label amid court challenge

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The Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) has temporarily refrained from classifying the Alternative for Germany (AfD) as “definitely far-right.”

The elevation of the classification has been suspended until the administrative court rules on the lawsuit filed by the AfD, but it will not be withdrawn.

In a statement to the court, the BfV stated that it would only register the AfD as a “suspicious case” until the decision-making body rules on this case. The press release regarding the elevation of the AfD’s classification has been removed from the BfV’s website, but this does not mean the decision has been reversed.

The party nevertheless interpreted this step by the BfV as a success. AfD co-chairs Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla said, “We will defend the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution’s classification through all legal means, and the Federal Office has committed not to describe the Alternative for Germany as ‘right-wing extremist’ until the court decision is final.”

Lower Saxony AfD state chairman Ansgar Schledde said, “Thus, the unjust and politically motivated classification of the AfD has finally been corrected. This is an important step for our party to receive fair treatment based on the rule of law.”

According to Schledde, the suspension of the classification showed that “the AfD’s arguments were taken into account and that the rule of law still functions in Germany.”

In fact, behind the BfV’s decision lies a method frequently used in urgent judicial proceedings: To prevent facts from emerging due to a measure taken by the competent authorities – for example, the surveillance of AfD members of parliament according to the new classification – the relevant authorities often voluntarily agree not to take action until a court decision is issued.

The BfV informed the court that it wanted to allow time for “an appropriate summary review” and emphasized that the suspension of the classification resulted from respect for the court, “without accepting a legal obligation.” The BfV said, “Since the press release already had a certain effect, it has now been taken offline again for the time being.”

The first legal decision regarding the classification belongs to the Cologne Administrative Court. A timeframe for when the urgent judicial decision will be made cannot currently be predicted; according to experts’ estimates, the judicial process could take a long time.

When the AfD challenged its classification as a “suspicious case” in 2021, it took the Cologne Administrative Court 14 months to issue its final decision on the party’s urgent application.

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Historical revisionism surfaces in Germany over post-war borders

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History is being rewritten in Germany, and the issue of post-World War II territorial arrangements and the displacement of German settlers (“East Germans”) is being brought back into the mainstream media.

The German Federal Parliament has banned all representatives of Russia and Belarus, successor states to the Soviet Union which liberated a large part of Germany including Berlin, from the commemoration ceremony for the 80th anniversary of the Nazis’ surrender.

On Sunday, Russia’s Ambassador to Germany was prevented from attending commemoration ceremonies held at the Sachsenhausen and Ravensbrück concentration camps. Both concentration camps were liberated by the Red Army at the end of April 1945.

Nazi Germany had massacred 27 million citizens of the Soviet Union and approximately a quarter of the population of the Belarusian Soviet Republic. Representatives of the successor states to these countries are no longer invited to German commemoration ceremonies.

The reason given for this is that Russia is waging an “aggressive war” against Ukraine. Ambassadors from several countries that have invaded foreign countries in recent years are expected to attend the commemoration in the Federal Parliament today, which decided to launch an aggressive war against Yugoslavia in 1999.

Threat of expulsion for Belarusian and Russian representatives

The non-invitation of the Russian and Belarusian ambassadors and other official representatives to the ceremonies marking the 80th anniversary of the victory caused a stir in early April.

At that time, a document classified as “strictly confidential,” sent from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to federal states, districts, and municipalities, was leaked.

The document stated that “invitations should not be sent to representatives of Russia and Belarus for commemoration ceremonies organized by the federal government, states, and municipalities.”

The German Ministry of Foreign Affairs justified this decision with a warning against “propaganda, disinformation, and historical revisionism,” but a government spokesperson could not provide any examples of representatives from the accused countries engaging in such provocations at commemoration ceremonies.

The note from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that if representatives of the two countries “appear unannounced,” the organizers of the respective commemoration ceremonies “can exercise their local rights.”

Thus, the ministry granted Germany the freedom to expel representatives of countries that suffered an unprecedented number of deaths as a result of the war.

“Holes” in Baerbock’s directive

In practice, the directive prepared by former Green Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock was only partially implemented.

Russian Ambassador Sergey Nechayev was able to attend the official commemoration ceremony for the Battle of the Seelow Heights on April 16. This battle was the beginning of the Red Army’s final major offensive to liberate Berlin, and more than 33,000 Soviet soldiers lost their lives.

Nechayev also attended the commemoration ceremonies in Torgau on April 25, 1945, where Soviet and US soldiers shook hands for the first time during the liberation of Germany, but CDU State Premier of Saxony Michael Kretschmer accused Russia of committing war crimes in the Ukraine war.

Nechayev and his Belarusian counterpart were not allowed to attend the official commemoration ceremonies held at the Sachsenhausen and Ravensbrück concentration camps on May 4. The concentration camps had been liberated by the Red Army.

Axel Drecoll, Director of the Brandenburg Memorials Foundation, said that the Russian ambassador’s invitation had been explicitly cancelled; if the ambassador still came, he threatened that they would “enforce our local rules in close cooperation with security forces.”

War club in full attendance at the Bundestag

The Russian and Belarusian ambassadors were also not allowed to attend the commemoration ceremony held today in the German Federal Parliament (Bundestag).

On the other hand, ambassadors from all other countries represented in Berlin were invited. These included representatives of the other victorious powers of World War II. The participation of the US ambassador is not prevented by the US having launched an invasion of Iraq in 2003. The ambassadors of France and Britain are not prevented by their countries having launched an aggressive war against Libya in 2011.

Furthermore, it is known that the German Federal Parliament, the organizer of the commemoration ceremony, approved the aggressive war against Yugoslavia in 1999, in violation of international law.

Only objection from former CDU parliamentary speaker

Criticism of Russia’s exclusion was voiced only by former Federal Parliament Speaker and current head of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, Norbert Lammert (CDU).

Speaking on ZDF television, he said he was “not sure” whether government directives, such as the note from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, were appropriate.

According to him, in any case, the victims of the war must be commemorated, “regardless of current developments, no matter how painful, oppressive, and cruel they may be.”

Historical revisionism in German media

The exclusion of Russia and Belarus from Berlin’s commemoration ceremonies for the end of World War II goes hand in hand with efforts to reinterpret the actions of the Soviet Union during the war and after Germany’s liberation from Nazi rule.

In recent days, leading media outlets have begun to view May 8th not as the end of the war, but as the beginning of events related to the “resettlement of the German-speaking population,” especially in Eastern Europe, particularly in Poland and Czechoslovakia.

These publications, of course, do not only speak of the “brutality of the Red Army.” For example, NDR had to admit the positive role of the Red Army by saying, “even if it ultimately played a decisive role in liberating Germany from Nazi terror.”

FAZ examined territorial arrangements in Eastern Europe

Regarding resettlement, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung wrote last week that the “power politics” plans of the Soviet Union within the “long tradition of Great Russian imperialism” were of great importance.

The newspaper argued that “sufficient compensation” for “Poland’s loss of eastern territories” as a result of the state restructuring of Eastern Europe would have been “East Prussia or Upper Silesia.”

According to FAZ, the reason for the transfer of territories further east of the German Reich to Poland was “only that Stalin achieved this through cunning and deception.”

Historian Manfred Kittel, a lecturer at the University of Regensburg, claims that the “expulsion of millions of people to a shrunken Germany” gave the “Kremlin the opportunity to create an overpopulated crisis region in the heart of Central Europe.”

According to Russian plans, the “expellees from the east were to be a source of unrest and social decay.” According to the historian, the “Russian imperial context” was “at the center of concrete diplomatic preparations and the subsequent practical implementation of the expulsions.”

Kittel adds that “Great Russian imperialism existed long before Hitler” and “continues to exist today, even without Hitler,” citing the ongoing “war of annihilation” against Ukraine as an example.

During the Cold War, West Germany did not recognize the 1950 Zgorzelec Treaty signed between the German Democratic Republic and socialist Poland, claiming to be the sole legal representative of Germany.

Moreover, especially CDU politicians had objected to the shifting of German borders “westward” after the war and the expulsion of German settlers placed in Poland and the Baltics during the Third Reich period, keeping this issue constantly on the agenda.

Forever enemy: Russia

In Kittel’s perspective of “Russian-Soviet imperialism,” cooperation with Russia is only possible during periods when Russia is relatively weak.

In the 1990s and 2000s, the Federal Republic of Germany gained access to Russia’s enormous natural gas reserves through a certain degree of cooperation with Moscow, but when Russia regained its strength, conflict with it became inevitable.

This aligns with what the new German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said about the war in Ukraine during a phone call with two Russian satirists in early February.

In this conversation, Wadephul had said, “No matter how the war with Russia ends, Russia will remain an enemy for us forever.”

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European Peace Project calls for continent-wide action on May 9

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An independent group consisting of academics, artists, and business people, including political scientist Prof. Dr. Ulrike Guérot, one of Germany’s leading European experts, actress Isabelle Casel, and journalist Peter van Stigt, has launched a new initiative called the European Peace Project.

The project aims to put the future of Europe into the hands of its citizens and promote sustainable peace on the continent.

The project currently boasts over 15,000 participants, Guérot says

German political scientist Ulrike Guérot has provided an update on the European Peace Project, revealing significant growth and future plans, including an application for United Nations funding and the organization of a major conference in 2026.

Speaking about the initiative, Guérot told Harici that, “I’m very happy that our European Peace Project is gathering so much attention.” She reported that the project currently boasts over 15,000 participants, noting that the high volume of interest has temporarily overloaded their website.

A key development is the project’s application for UN funding. Guérot explained, “we yesterday applied for UN funding for the project because we fit into the Sustainable Development Goals No. 16, which is peace, and there is a project where you can apply when you are going with creativity and art, and that is what we are doing.” The project hopes this funding will allow it to continue its work beyond May 9th.

Looking ahead, the European Peace Project plans to create a digital gallery showcasing participants’ contributions. Guérot encouraged supporters to “read the manifesto at the place you are, send us photos, send us your video material, and then we will have soon a digital gallery.”

‘We are rebuilding the next Europe for the 21st century’

With a database of approximately 15,000 participant emails, the project is also setting its sights on a significant future event: a Hertenstein 2.0 conference scheduled for September 2026. Guérot drew a parallel to the original Hertenstein gathering in 1946, where European citizens convened after World War II “and they wanted to create a federal and social and just Europe.”

Guérot framed the upcoming conference within the context of the present, stating, “we are now at a moment in time where the European Union is failing, we are rebuilding the next Europe for the 21st century.” She expressed optimism that the large number of participants in the European Peace Project would enable them “to build a European people’s conference, a European citizens conference for September 2026.”

Concluding her remarks, Guérot conveyed her gratitude, saying, “I’m very thankful, I’m delighted for all the people who have been participating so far and who are helping us to make it a huge event, 80 years after World War II, European citizens proclaim peace.”

The main event of the project will take place on May 9, 2025, at 5:00 PM. On this date, citizens in all countries across the European continent and in all European languages will simultaneously shout peace slogans from their windows, balconies, and squares.

The project organizers emphasize that the efforts of the European Union and national governments to drag Europe into war against Russia constitute a betrayal of fundamental European principles such as peace, democracy, freedom, and mutual understanding among peoples.

The project asks participants to film and photograph their actions and send them to be published in a digital gallery to be created on the project website. In this way, it will be documented that European citizens are on the side of peace, not war.

Participation in the project is possible individually or as an organization. It is stated that everyone who participates will be represented by a peace dove symbol on an interactive European map in the coming weeks.

The project aims for broad participation covering all of Europe, from Dublin to Thessaloniki, Lisbon to Helsinki, and even Moscow.

The project website will also feature a function where participants can enter events in their own locations and find other participants nearby.

Additionally, artistic templates for materials such as posters, t-shirts, and stickers will be offered for project promotion. The project states that it needs enthusiasm, commitment, creativity, and financial support for the realization of this large event, and requests a donation of at least 1 euro from every registered participant.

The call text of the European Peace Project, titled “In Europe, we have something to say about peace,” includes the following statements:

May 9 at 5:00 PM: Time to give a sign for Europe’s peaceful future!

If the EU and their national governments want to drag us into war against Russia, it means they are betraying all fundamental European principles such as peace, democracy, freedom, and mutual understanding among peoples! Therefore, we, as European citizens, are taking the future of this wonderful continent into our own hands! We are launching the European Peace Project. On May 9, 2025, at 5:00 PM, let’s all together, in all countries across the European continent and in all European languages, shout PEACE from our windows, balconies, and squares with a performative word action! And afterwards, let’s celebrate!

You can find the call text here in many languages. If your country’s language or local language (Catalan, Welsh, Alsatian, etc.) is missing, please send us the translation! You can change the call text as you wish (remove or add things). In this case, please add your own imprint (VisdP) information below the text.

Join our peace action and fill out the contact form; this way we can inform you about all planning and events.

Please help us make this project big and meaningful!

For this, enthusiasm, commitment, and creativity are needed, as well as a little money. Therefore, we ask everyone who registers and participates here to donate at least 1 euro.

You can participate in the European Peace Project as an individual or as an organization. Everyone who registers will receive a peace dove on an interactive European map in the coming weeks, showing that you, your city, and your village are also participating in this action; with participation extending from Dublin to Thessaloniki, Lisbon to Helsinki, traversing all of Europe and the continent from end to end, reaching Moscow and even beyond!

Also on the site, there will be a feature where you can enter planned events in your location or find other participants near you; so you can gather for this action!

In the Art Work section on our website, we will be offering artistic templates for posters, t-shirts, stickers, badges, or flags to promote the European Peace Project in the coming weeks. You can print these yourself at a copy shop or via online order — as posters at bus stops, on trees, on billboards, on walls, or at your workplace.

You can creatively expand the basic idea of opening the window and reading the peace manifesto on May 9 at 5:00 PM with actions, art, performances, happenings, or flashmobs: You are the actors of the European Peace Project, and you shape this idea according to your own imagination!

Please film or photograph yourself at the window or in your square while making the call, and then send these pictures/videos to us. We will publish them in a digital gallery on this website after May 9, 2025, to document that European citizens are on the side of peace, not war!”

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