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South Korean election could reshape US ties and regional policy

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Early voting has begun for the South Korean presidential election. Liberal candidate Lee Jae-myung is predicted to win the snap presidential election scheduled for June 3. This outcome could lead to a new direction in the policies of a key US ally, spanning from China to North Korea.

Conservative former President Yoon Suk Yeol, who was removed from office in December following a brief martial law decree, had worked diligently to support Washington, maintain a tough stance against North Korea, repair relations with Japan, and coordinate actions with the US. Lee, who narrowly lost to Yoon in the 2022 election, has long approached the US alliance with greater skepticism, promising to improve relations with North Korea and harshly criticizing Yoon’s rapprochement with Japan. During his campaign, Lee emphasized that South Korea should stay out of any China-Taiwan conflict and pledged to mend ties with China. However, following subsequent discussions, he began to praise the US alliance and stated he would continue trilateral cooperation with Japan and the US, which Washington deems vital for countering China and North Korea.

Wi Sung-lac, a lawmaker advising Lee on foreign policy, told Reuters, “The Yoon administration advocated for democratic values in foreign policy while pursuing authoritarian tactics in domestic policy,” adding: “In contrast, if the Democratic Party wins, the new government will be prepared to genuinely defend democracy and pursue a foreign policy based on these values, proven by the long history of the struggle for democratic rights in Korea.”

According to Reuters, some in Washington wonder whether Lee’s changes on a range of issues will be permanent and whether his views might clash with the US. Trump imposed tariffs on South Korea, demanded it cover more of the costs for the 28,500 troops stationed in the country, and increased competition with China.

Bruce Klingner, a former CIA analyst at the Heritage Foundation in Washington, said, “There are significant doubts whether Lee will genuinely deviate from his previous stance of reconciliation with China and North Korea, nationalist antagonism towards Japan, and greater independence in the alliance with the US.”

Darcie Draudt-Vejares from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace wrote in a report that while this transformation increases Lee’s appeal, “it also raises concerns about future policy and governance consistency.”

Much has changed in the three years since South Korea’s last liberal president, Moon Jae-in, left office. His tenure involved managing trade and political conflicts with Tokyo over historical disputes related to Japan’s 1910-1945 occupation of the Korean peninsula, and his attempts to secure lasting diplomatic agreements between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. The impeached conservative Yoon reversed this entire process, aligning South Korea’s defense and foreign policy with US preferences.

On the other hand, a Western diplomat, who wished to remain anonymous, told Reuters that Lee is unlikely to revert to his previous stance due to China’s assertive posture, doubts about US commitments, and North Korea’s new cooperation with Russia.

Lee has pledged to cooperate with Japan in security, technology, culture, and environmental fields, but criticized Yoon for conceding too much while receiving little in return.

Yoon and the conservatives raised the possibility of redeploying American nuclear weapons to the peninsula to counter North Korea, or even developing their own arsenal. However, Lee has rejected these calls.

In an interview with TIME magazine published on Thursday, Lee praised Trump’s “extraordinary skills” in negotiation. He also compared himself to the American president, saying both survived assassination attempts and sought to protect their countries’ interests.

Lee stated on a discussion program on Tuesday, “I believe the South Korea-US alliance is the foundation of South Korean diplomacy.” Nevertheless, he listed US protectionism as a challenge and said he would not “unnecessarily” antagonize China and Russia.

North Korea is one area where Lee might find common ground with Trump. This could also be one of the most challenging issues to address.

Lee has said he will reopen hotlines with North Korea and attempt to establish dialogue with Pyongyang to reduce tensions. Lee could cooperate on this matter with Trump, who has emphasized his desire to handle relations with Kim Jong Un.

On the other hand, Lee, who accuses the conservative Yoon administration of bringing relations with China to their worst point in South Korean history, might adopt a more cautious and balanced approach to ties with Beijing, not succumbing to US demands.

Following Yoon’s impeachment after the failed martial law attempt, the South Korean presidential election will be held on June 3.

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China launches patrols east of Taiwan after Japan and Philippines open maritime boundary talks

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Beijing said it had conducted law enforcement patrols in waters east of Taiwan in response to a decision by Japan and the Philippines to launch talks on maritime boundary delimitation.

According to a statement from the China Coast Guard, a flotilla led by the vessel Daishan carried out law enforcement patrols “in accordance with the law” on Monday.

China Coast Guard spokesperson Jiang Lue said the operation was “a necessary action” in response to Japan and the Philippines “unilaterally announcing the start of negotiations on maritime delimitation in waters east of China’s Taiwan Island.”

“Such an announcement seriously infringes upon China’s territorial sovereignty and its maritime rights and interests,” Jiang said.

“We urge Japan and the Philippines to immediately cease all illegal actions that violate China’s sovereignty and rights,” he added.

Jiang also said the coast guard would continue strengthening its control and management of the relevant waters and that China would take concrete measures to “resolutely safeguard territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests.”

The United States and most of its allies, including Japan and the Philippines, do not recognize Taiwan as an independent state and acknowledge it as part of China. The United Nations has also adopted resolutions reflecting this position. However, Washington continues to provide arms to Taiwan as part of its broader efforts to counter China and encourages its allies to do the same.

Following a summit in Tokyo between Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the two countries said in a joint statement issued on Thursday that they had agreed to begin “formal negotiations” to delimit their exclusive economic zones (EEZs) and continental shelves.

Beijing condemned the planned talks as “completely illegal and invalid” and swiftly lodged formal diplomatic protests with both Tokyo and Manila.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on Friday: “The so-called delimitation negotiations are entirely illegal, invalid and void. They will have no impact whatsoever on China’s claims or on China’s exercise of its legitimate rights in the area east of Taiwan Island.”

The latest escalation comes at a time when relations between Beijing and both Tokyo and Manila are already strained. Japan and the Philippines are treaty allies of the United States, while China remains engaged in separate territorial disputes with Japan in the East China Sea and with the Philippines in the South China Sea.

As US attention and resources have increasingly shifted toward the war involving Iran, and as the White House has made the Western Hemisphere a strategic priority, Japan and the Philippines have stepped up diplomatic engagement in the region commonly referred to as the Indo-Pacific.

That effort has included building closer security and defence ties with other countries, prompting Beijing to accuse them of encouraging bloc confrontation in the region.

Japan and the Philippines do not share a maritime boundary. However, their seabed claims could overlap because both countries seek to extend their legal continental shelves beyond 200 nautical miles, equivalent to 370 kilometres or 230 miles.

The overlapping area lies east of Taiwan, southwest of Japan’s Ryukyu Islands and north of the Philippines’ Batanes Islands.

Yang Xiao, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China’s highest-ranking state-affiliated think tank, said Taiwan’s EEZ and continental shelf are part of the area under discussion.

“These are China’s rights and are not something that the two sides can negotiate among themselves,” Yang said.

In an interview published on Sunday by Yuyuan Tantian, a social media account affiliated with state broadcaster CCTV, before the China Coast Guard announced the patrols, Yang said Beijing would take “historic and unprecedented” countermeasures against Tokyo and Manila.

“Since they are negotiating in a three-party overlapping zone, we can also take further steps to advance our jurisdiction in the waters east of Taiwan,” Yang said.

“If the other side insists on reckless and destructive actions, we will inevitably introduce new countermeasures.”

Yang described the waters east of Taiwan as a vital maritime area for the island’s economic activities.

“If these waters are divided between Japan and the Philippines, that would clearly harm the interests of the people living on Taiwan Island,” he added.

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SoftBank overtakes Toyota to become Japan’s most valuable company

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As artificial intelligence reshapes industrial structures in Japan and South Korea, stock market rankings are being redrawn. SoftBank Group has overtaken Toyota Motor to become Japan’s most valuable listed company.

SoftBank shares have surged as the global artificial intelligence rally gathers momentum, lifting the technology conglomerate’s market capitalisation above that of Toyota for the first time in more than two decades.

The shift reflects a broader reordering of Japan’s equity market. Automakers, alongside banks, steelmakers, energy companies and other traditional heavy industries, are losing ground to chipmakers and companies linked to artificial intelligence.

SoftBank shares jumped 14% on Monday, reaching a new record high. The company’s market value climbed to 48 trillion yen, or $301 billion, making it the most valuable company listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

Toyota had long held the top position, with a market capitalisation of approximately 45 trillion yen. The last time SoftBank surpassed Toyota was in March 2000, at the peak of the dot-com bubble.

SoftBank’s rapid rise has been driven by strong earnings performance and its substantial investment in ChatGPT developer OpenAI.

The Japanese company reported net profit of 1.82 trillion yen, or $11.4 billion, for the first three months of 2026, 3.5 times higher than in the same period a year earlier. The group is also increasing its investment in OpenAI, completing a $10 billion investment in April and committing to invest an additional $20 billion later this year. Total investment is expected to reach roughly $65 billion.

According to The Wall Street Journal, OpenAI plans to file for an initial public offering and aims to list in the United States as early as September. Some media reports suggest the company could seek to raise $60 billion through the offering, potentially valuing it at more than $1 trillion. Such a transaction could become the largest initial public offering in history.

Investors expect the IPO to significantly boost SoftBank’s investment gains. Those expectations have helped drive the technology group’s share price higher. SoftBank shares have risen about 127% since early April.

The company is also planning to invest up to 14 trillion yen in the construction of data centres in France.

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China and Serbia agree to expand cooperation in emerging sectors

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Chinese President Xi Jinping met Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic in Beijing, where the two leaders discussed bilateral ties and oversaw the signing of multiple cooperation agreements. Xi also awarded Vucic the Friendship Medal of the People’s Republic of China.

The meeting between Xi Jinping and Aleksandar Vucic began with an official welcoming ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.

The two leaders then proceeded to formal talks. Xi said China and Serbia had achieved “positive results” since jointly launching the construction of a “China-Serbia community with a shared future in the new era” in 2024.

Xi said the partnership had not only benefited the two peoples but had also set an example for international relations.

The Chinese president described relations between China and Serbia as an “iron friendship” based on deep historical ties and mutual trust.

Calling on both sides to strengthen exchanges, deepen practical cooperation and continue supporting each other on issues concerning their core interests, Xi also said the two countries should align their development strategies and advance cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative. In this context, he pointed to transport, energy and infrastructure projects.

Xi also called for expanding cooperation in emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence, the digital economy, green energy and advanced manufacturing.

Aleksandar Vucic congratulated China on the start of implementation of its 15th Five-Year Plan. Vucic also expressed confidence in China’s future development under Xi Jinping’s leadership.

The Serbian president said Belgrade attached great importance to relations with China and firmly supported Beijing on issues concerning China’s core interests.

Vucic thanked Chinese companies for their contributions to Serbia’s economic development and infrastructure construction.

Saying the two countries had made notable progress since establishing their comprehensive strategic partnership, Vucic added that cooperation had expanded across numerous sectors.

The Serbian president also praised China’s role in international affairs, saying Beijing approached smaller countries on the basis of equality and respect and defended international law.

Following the talks, the two leaders witnessed the signing of more than 20 cooperation agreements covering politics, trade, science and technology, education, legal affairs and culture.

The two sides also issued joint statements on steadily advancing the construction of a China-Serbia community with a shared future in the new era and jointly supporting the implementation of four global initiatives.

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