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German ‘Green Book’ details civilian integration in war preparations

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A ‘Green Book’ prepared by German military, ministry officials, and secret service agents outlines the integration of German civilians into military logistics in the event of a crisis or war.

It is based on a scenario in which tensions between Russia and NATO escalate and several major NATO countries, including Germany, France, and the United States, move at least 70,000 troops eastwards through German territory. In the east, these troops would directly confront Russian troops.

According to the document, even during the deployment of the troops, a large number of tasks arise that must be carried out by civilians, because regular Bundeswehr units are largely needed for combat operations.

Tasks in which civilians are also used include, for example, setting up so-called Convoy Support Centers (CSC), a type of ‘rest and assembly point for troops marching in motor vehicles’, which must be supplied.

Civilian infrastructure is also being used in the health sector to treat wounded soldiers, with up to 1,000 casualties expected per day. In this scenario, civilians are only treated ‘secondarily’.

Public Security Future Forum: ‘Shadow NSC’?

According to German Foreign Policy, the so-called ‘Green Paper ZMZ 4.0’ was prepared by a core team of 20 people, including several military personnel, representatives of various federal and state ministries and the three Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), and four employees of the consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC).

The work on the document is being carried out by the Zukunftsforum Öffentliche Sicherheit (Future Forum for Public Safety), a non-profit association founded in Berlin in 2007, whose board of directors includes representatives of various federal and state ministries, the fire brigade, various private security companies, and Marieluise Beck (Greens), a former member of the Bundestag and head of the Liberal Centre for Modernity (LibMod), which receives millions of dollars in funding from the federal budget.

As of June 3, 2024, the Future Forum for Public Security has 136 members, 77 of which are legal entities, i.e. organizations of various kinds. Its chairman is Albrecht Broemme, former head of the Federal Agency for Technical Relief (THW) (2006-2019) and former vice-president of the German Firefighters’ Association (1999-2006).

War scenario: Left-wing peace activists oppose the conflict

The Green Paper is based on the scenario of a rapid escalation of tensions between NATO and Russia in the spring of 2030.

According to this scenario, NATO countries react to the deployment of Russian troops around Kaliningrad and St. Petersburg by shifting large units to their eastern flanks.

For example, the Bundeswehr is deploying around 30,000 troops in Lithuania, reinforced by troops from the Netherlands, Croatia, and Norway. The US is sending 25,000 troops to Poland, most of them stationed in southern Germany. France, the United Kingdom, and Canada are preparing to send 15,000 troops to Estonia and Latvia.

In both cases, Germany acts as a hub for the transport of troops and materiel.

The Green Paper scenario assumes that the preparations for war will also meet resistance at home: ‘Peace activists from the left and right and opponents of NATO are calling for demonstrations and the blocking of bridges and border crossings to prevent a war with Russia.’

In addition, ‘arson attacks on Deutsche Bahn electricity distribution boxes… are causing interruptions in freight traffic,’ and are claimed to be the responsibility of ‘an unknown left-wing autonomous group’.

The authors of the Green Paper recommend immediate organizational preparations and, if possible, capacity-building using civilians, and also discuss measures to combat protest and resistance in the event of crisis or war.

‘Transit and host country’: A national mandate for civilians

According to the Green Paper, the task of the Federal Republic in this scenario is to ensure ‘the planned deployment and resupply of allied and own forces’ traveling through central Germany to NATO’s eastern flank, which has become the eastern front.

Germany is seen as a ‘transit and host country’ for the troops traveling through it.

But since regular Bundeswehr troops would be needed for a possible war in the east, this is a ‘national task’. Among other things, rations, fuel, ‘overnight accommodation and parking capacities’, ‘maintenance and security’ of military equipment, and ‘medical care’ must be provided. It also states that ‘traffic control’ is necessary for ‘large-scale military deployments’.

The Green Paper also states that Convoy Support Centers (CSCs) should be established: these centers are ‘rest and assembly areas for troops marching in motorized vehicles’ and should have everything that might be needed ‘in the range of food/bedding/fuel/workshops’.

In addition to emergency service organizations and civilian agencies, contractual partners from the private sector are asked to be consulted for the operation of the CDC.

Hospitals, doctors’ surgeries, pharmacies: Everything at the service of the army

The Green Paper emphasizes that in the event of a crisis or war, civilians will not only be obliged to assist in the care of the troops passing through, but also in the health care of sick or wounded soldiers.

In principle, according to the document, all players in the healthcare system will be needed: not only the relevant emergency services, hospitals, and rehabilitation facilities, but also outpatient care facilities, doctors’ surgeries, and pharmacies.

According to the scenario on which the Green Paper is based, the ‘provision of primary medical care for 60,000 soldiers’ must be guaranteed even during the deployment of troops to the east.

In principle, the so-called cloverleaf mechanism could be used to provide care for sick or injured soldiers in a crisis situation. This mechanism was developed in spring 2020 in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic with the aim of distributing acute patients to available hospital beds as quickly as possible.

The system has since been further developed and is currently being used to transport seriously ill Ukrainians and war wounded to hospitals in Germany.

The level of care for civilians will be reduced

However, the document notes that the cloverleaf mechanism is difficult to apply in a full-scale war situation because the number of victims is likely to be very high.

According to the scenario, 1,000 people could be wounded per day, of whom ‘33.6 percent would require intensive care, 22 percent more care and 44.4 percent minor injuries’ and would have to be transported from the front to Germany for treatment.

In Germany, on the other hand, they would become ‘absolutely dependent on civilian care structures’, which are already suffering from overload. The existing capacities will no longer be sufficient to serve the civilian population in the event of war to the same extent as before, which is already often insufficient.

The authors of the Green Paper strongly criticize the ‘lack of a public debate on reducing the level of care’ for the civilian population; due to the ‘lack of debate’, the population is considered ‘insufficiently prepared’ for the ‘necessary prioritization’, i.e. preferential treatment of soldiers and subordinate treatment of civilians.

The Green Paper points out that the situation would be even more serious in the event of war, given that ‘large movements of refugees from neighboring countries’ are expected, and that refugees would need at least medical care.

This would have to be taken over by ‘municipalities and districts’ supported by aid organizations.

Europe

China’s critical mineral restrictions challenge EU defence expansion plans

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The European Union’s plans to expand its defence capabilities are being hindered by China’s export controls and sales restrictions on critical raw materials.

In response, EU leaders are urging member states to accelerate efforts to diversify supply chains.

According to Nikkei Asia, the European Commission announced last week that it would propose new legislation requiring companies across the bloc to broaden their supplier base in an effort to address economic imbalances, although it did not explicitly name China.

The war in Ukraine and growing uncertainty over Washington’s security guarantees have pushed European governments to increase military spending and defence production.

At the same time, according to a report published in May by Joris Teer, a policy analyst at the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), China accounts for at least 70% of global mining or refining activity in 17 of the 34 materials classified as critical by the EU. Eight of those 34 materials are currently subject to Chinese export controls.

“China is undermining Europe’s rearmament efforts,” Teer wrote. “Simply by activating this tool, China has already increased its leverage and demonstrated both the capability and willingness to restrict supply whenever it chooses.”

The Aerospace, Security and Defence Industries Association of Europe also warned that geopolitical developments and intensifying global competition for critical raw materials are further underscoring the need to strengthen European supply chains.

The organisation represents more than 4,000 companies, including Britain’s BAE Systems, France’s Thales and Germany’s Rheinmetall.

European defence manufacturers are pursuing a range of strategies, including vertical integration, recycling, diversification and stockpiling.

Rheinmetall told Nikkei Asia that it has “no dependencies” and is “well prepared” regarding critical minerals.

A company spokesperson said: “Rheinmetall has stockpiled key raw materials sufficient for several years. We have also implemented IT systems that allow us to centrally monitor and precisely manage raw material consumption across the entire group.”

Analysts, however, caution that stockpiling alone will not be sufficient. Maria Shagina, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said: “Stockpiling serves as an important buffer against sudden disruptions, but on its own it is unlikely to mitigate structural damage over the long term.”

Shagina added that replacing the volume and diversity of critical minerals controlled by Beijing with alternative sources would take years.

In 2024, the EU enacted the European Critical Raw Materials Act, aimed at rebuilding domestic supply chains for such minerals.

The legislation sets 2030 targets for domestic extraction, processing and recycling while limiting dependence on any single third-country supplier to 65%.

A €3 billion ($3.5 billion) fund was established last year to accelerate strategic projects.

Nevertheless, the European Court of Auditors has noted that the 2030 targets are not legally binding and that the EU remains far from achieving them.

Industry groups argue that policy inconsistencies could further slow progress.

The Cobalt Institute, which represents a sector vital to jet engines, advanced batteries and defence alloys, warned that proposed EU chemicals regulations risk undermining the industry.

“Europe has one foot in and one foot out,” said Michael Blakeney, head of government and public affairs at the London-based institute. “It says the right things, but its actions are inconsistent.”

Europe’s efforts are unfolding alongside a more aggressive US strategy to secure critical mineral supply chains.

Shagina said:

“The US is investing more capital to secure and expand capacity, taking greater financial risks and, in some cases, acquiring equity stakes. Europe, by contrast, is generally more cautious, which places it at a relative disadvantage in the competition for critical minerals.”

In April, the EU signed an agreement with the United States to coordinate supplies of critical minerals. Although some member states initially resisted over concerns that the deal could weaken the bloc’s strategic autonomy, they authorised the Commission in early June to join the US-led “Pax Silica” initiative, which coordinates investment and export-control policies.

Teer urged Europe to use ongoing US-EU-Japan negotiations as the nucleus of a broader coalition aimed at making critical mineral production outside China financially viable through state support, minimum-price mechanisms and supply rules.

“Particularly important are countries that either produce raw materials or possess significant mineral deposits, such as Malaysia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Brazil and Indonesia, as well as countries like India with large pools of skilled labour,” he said.

Teer also argued that the EU should activate its Anti-Coercion Instrument, which allows the bloc to impose tariffs and restrictions in response to economic pressure on countries outside the union, in order to deter China from introducing further restrictions.

A European Commission spokesperson said the bloc had “long been aware of the risks associated with the EU’s dependence on critical raw materials.”

“The objective is clear: to anticipate disruptions early and reduce the EU’s vulnerabilities while strengthening our industrial and defence capacities,” the spokesperson said.

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Four European countries move to make citizenship harder to obtain

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European countries are increasingly tightening their citizenship rules. Most recently, the Norwegian government has drafted legislation that would raise the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from three years to seven.

The proposed amendments to the citizenship law were presented by the Ministry of Labour and Social Inclusion.

Under the draft legislation, stateless individuals born in Norway, as well as those who arrived in the country as children, would be required to reside in Norway for at least five years before becoming eligible for citizenship.

The government also plans to increase residency requirements for foreign nationals who are married to or cohabiting with Norwegian citizens.

Language requirements are set to become more demanding as well. The proposal would raise the required level of spoken Norwegian proficiency from A2 to B1. The new rules would apply to applicants aged between 18 and 67.

Commenting on the changes, Minister of Labour and Social Inclusion Kjersti Stenseng said: “Obtaining and holding Norwegian citizenship should be a privilege.”

The government argues that simplifying administrative procedures while simultaneously tightening eligibility criteria will help reduce the country’s large backlog of pending applications and shorten processing times.

Norway is the latest European country to announce revisions to its citizenship rules.

In Finland, the minimum residency requirement for citizenship was increased from five years to eight years on October 1, 2024.

The country also plans to introduce a mandatory citizenship test for applicants aged between 18 and 64 from the beginning of 2027.

Finnish Interior Minister Mari Rantanen said: “The introduction of a citizenship test is the final component of a comprehensive reform aimed at making citizenship requirements more stringent.”

Sweden has also approved a similar reform. Beginning in June 2026, the standard residency requirement for citizenship will increase from five years to eight years. Authorities are also introducing a financial self-sufficiency requirement for applicants and expanding the scope of security screenings.

Explaining the rationale behind the changes, Migration Minister Johan Forssell said: “It was possible to become a citizen after living in the country for five years without knowing a single word of Swedish, learning anything about Swedish society, or even having one’s own source of income.”

The most far-reaching changes have been implemented in Portugal. Portuguese President Antonio Jose Seguro has signed legislation raising the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from five years to 10 years.

For citizens of the European Union and the Community of Portuguese Language Countries, the requirement has been set at seven years.

The residency period will now be calculated from the date a residence permit is granted rather than from the date a citizenship application is submitted. The new rules will also affect the children of immigrants.

Previously, children could obtain citizenship one year after birth if their parents held residence permits. Under the new rules, at least one parent must have legally resided in the country for a minimum of five years.

The law also introduces a mandatory examination covering Portuguese history, culture, values and social structures.

Migration policies are tightening across the European Union as well. On June 17, the European Parliament approved legislation allowing irregular migrants whose asylum applications have been rejected but who cannot be returned to their countries of origin to be deported to third countries.

The new EU rules permit the establishment of migrant detention centres outside the bloc’s borders. African countries are reportedly among the options being discussed for such facilities.

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SpaceX warns EU satellite spectrum plan could disrupt connectivity in Ukraine

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SpaceX has sharply criticised a European Union plan to restrict access to satellite spectrum, arguing that the proposal risks degrading connectivity in Ukraine and disrupting emergency communications services.

In a document shared with European officials and reviewed by the Financial Times, SpaceX warned:

“This proposal significantly increases the likelihood that Europeans will be deprived of direct-to-device satellite services, or that new European operations will create global interference issues, including for emergency services such as those operating in Ukraine.”

In a proposal unveiled in May, the EU recommended reserving part of the spectrum band used for direct satellite-to-smartphone connectivity for European operators, thereby limiting the frequencies available to US and Chinese providers.

The 2 GHz frequency band in question is currently used by two US companies, Viasat and EchoStar.

SpaceX argued that the EU plan prioritises “an operator’s country of establishment over economic, technical and regulatory realities.”

When the proposal was announced, EU technology chief Henna Virkkunen defended the move, saying the bloc wanted to “increase European capacity in this sector.” She added that other parts of the frequency band would remain open to international operators, arguing that prioritising European providers was justified.

Other participants involved in discussions over the proposal said some EU officials were specifically seeking to limit Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite network.

Europe’s initiative follows a warning from Washington. In March, the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) cautioned that it could take retaliatory measures if the EU chose to favour European satellite operators over alternatives such as Starlink.

At the time, FCC Chairman Brendan Carr told the Financial Times: “Some of the discussions in Europe regarding satellite sovereignty concern us. If Europe decides to move down that path, then, as you know, we will have to consider reciprocal measures.”

The European Commission’s proposal has not yet entered formal negotiations with EU member states or the European Parliament.

A source close to SpaceX said the company remained hopeful of influencing the outcome of the process, given concerns raised by both businesses and several European governments.

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