Connect with us

Europe

German industrialists call for increased militarization ahead of elections

Published

on

Ahead of the Bundestag elections on Sunday, economists, defense company representatives, and business association figures are calling on the next German government to decisively pursue the rearmament of the Bundeswehr and actively support the “militarization of German society.”

While the three leading sectors of the German economy—motor vehicles, mechanical engineering, and chemicals—are in crisis, the defense industry is already experiencing rapid growth. Economists estimate that increasing the military budget to 3.5% of the gross domestic product (GDP) could boost growth by up to 1.5%.

Amid discussions at the EU level of an arms financing package worth several hundred billion euros, Peter Leibinger, President of the Federation of German Industries (BDI), advocates for a “decisively strengthened” defense industry to become “part of a living security and defense social culture” in Germany in the future.

The new government coalition in Berlin after February 23 will, therefore, be immediately confronted with dramatic demands for armaments, including from the arms industry, granting arms manufacturers considerable influence.

Arms manufacturers are experiencing an order boom

Similar to other Western countries, Germany’s defense industry has been booming since the onset of the war in Ukraine.

However, three of Germany’s strongest sectors are facing severe crises: the automotive industry anticipates large-scale layoffs, mechanical engineering recorded a production decline of approximately 8% last year, and the chemical industry can only hope for a slight upturn, at best.

Nevertheless, arms manufacturer Rheinmetall, the largest German arms company after the German-French Airbus, has been consistently making headlines. Rheinmetall increased its turnover to almost 10 billion euros last year and expects to double this figure to around 20 billion euros by 2027. This projection aligns with the substantial order volume, which has recently surpassed 50 billion euros.

Other manufacturers of various combat equipment are also expanding, producing submarines, tanks, ammunition, drones, and air defense systems.

Rising stock markets

The defense industry boom has long been reflected in the stock markets. Rheinmetall shares recently surged by about 25% within a week, currently trading at around 900 euros. At the start of the war in Ukraine, the price was approximately 100 euros.

Shares of the French armaments group Thales rose by about 16% in the same week, while those of the Italian arms manufacturer Leonardo increased by around 18%. Medium-sized German defense companies like Hensoldt and Renk experienced even stronger growth, with increases of 29% and 34%, respectively.

Airbus achieved a modest increase of only 4%; the reason for this weaker growth is reportedly that the group derives “most of its turnover from civilian business, not armaments.”

Economists are pinning their hopes for growth on the arms trade

The sector is expected to continue its upward trajectory.

Moreover, economists increasingly view the armaments boom as a significant source of potential growth, given the persistent weakness in the main branches of German industry.

Economist Ethan Ilzetzki from the London School of Economics (LSE) predicts that if EU countries raise their military budgets to 3.5% of GDP and simultaneously purchase more weapons domestically, this could increase GDP by up to 1.5% annually.

EU-wide arms race

Increasing military budgets in Germany and across the EU has been planned for some time. Last year, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, stated that she considered additional spending totaling €500 billion over the next ten years to be inevitable.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock confirmed at the Munich Security Conference that the EU is developing a spending program akin to the “bailouts” during the euro and Covid-19 crises.

During these crises, sums of 500 to 700 billion euros were made available. Due to the parliamentary elections in Germany, information is still being withheld, but individual countries are taking action.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, for instance, announced that her country’s military budget should, in the future, be “closer to 5% of Danish GDP than 2%.”

French President Emmanuel Macron intends to invite all parliamentary group and party leaders to discuss increased military spending in the coming days. The European Commission is also preparing to suspend EU debt rules for defense spending.

German Finance Minister Jörg Kukies has also announced a similar change in German budget rules.

Arms dealing is no longer a ‘dirty business’

With the rapid armaments boom, the sector is gaining importance not only economically but also socially. Experts estimate the number of employees in defense companies to be over 100,000, and including employees in supplier companies and the broader security sector, the total is believed to be as high as 400,000.

This figure is only slightly lower than the number of employees in the chemical industry, estimated at 450,000. The defense industry is viewed as a promising source of employment for the large number of automotive industry employees expected to be laid off.

Simultaneously, employees of arms manufacturers contend that the war in Ukraine has significantly improved the sector’s reputation, which was long considered “a bit of a dirty business.” There are increasing calls for arms companies to break existing taboos.

In some universities, such as those in the German state of Bavaria, pressure is growing to ban existing “civilian” substances. Bettina Martin of the SPD, President of the Conference of Ministers of Science, recently stated that “it is unrealistic in the face of changing times to completely exclude research involving ‘dual use’.”

German industrialists desire militarization not only in industry but also in society

In this context, BDI President Peter Leibinger wants the defense industry not only to be accepted by society but also to be actively supported by it.

At an event preceding the Munich Security Conference, Leibinger called for a decisively strengthened defense industry to “become part of a living security and defense culture in society.”

The BDI leader asserted that the German government and Bundestag have a responsibility to “inform the public about the importance and urgency of defense capacities” and suggested allocating more funds to “initiatives that promote the need for rearmament.”

Citing the Marshall Plan after the Second World War, Leibinger noted that the US government had employed an “advertising campaign” to alleviate skepticism about the plan within American society.

Leibinger argued that Germany requires something similar today concerning “rearmament” and called for “winning over” society and “replacing the current passive approval with active participation of all.”

Europe

China’s critical mineral restrictions challenge EU defence expansion plans

Published

on

The European Union’s plans to expand its defence capabilities are being hindered by China’s export controls and sales restrictions on critical raw materials.

In response, EU leaders are urging member states to accelerate efforts to diversify supply chains.

According to Nikkei Asia, the European Commission announced last week that it would propose new legislation requiring companies across the bloc to broaden their supplier base in an effort to address economic imbalances, although it did not explicitly name China.

The war in Ukraine and growing uncertainty over Washington’s security guarantees have pushed European governments to increase military spending and defence production.

At the same time, according to a report published in May by Joris Teer, a policy analyst at the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), China accounts for at least 70% of global mining or refining activity in 17 of the 34 materials classified as critical by the EU. Eight of those 34 materials are currently subject to Chinese export controls.

“China is undermining Europe’s rearmament efforts,” Teer wrote. “Simply by activating this tool, China has already increased its leverage and demonstrated both the capability and willingness to restrict supply whenever it chooses.”

The Aerospace, Security and Defence Industries Association of Europe also warned that geopolitical developments and intensifying global competition for critical raw materials are further underscoring the need to strengthen European supply chains.

The organisation represents more than 4,000 companies, including Britain’s BAE Systems, France’s Thales and Germany’s Rheinmetall.

European defence manufacturers are pursuing a range of strategies, including vertical integration, recycling, diversification and stockpiling.

Rheinmetall told Nikkei Asia that it has “no dependencies” and is “well prepared” regarding critical minerals.

A company spokesperson said: “Rheinmetall has stockpiled key raw materials sufficient for several years. We have also implemented IT systems that allow us to centrally monitor and precisely manage raw material consumption across the entire group.”

Analysts, however, caution that stockpiling alone will not be sufficient. Maria Shagina, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said: “Stockpiling serves as an important buffer against sudden disruptions, but on its own it is unlikely to mitigate structural damage over the long term.”

Shagina added that replacing the volume and diversity of critical minerals controlled by Beijing with alternative sources would take years.

In 2024, the EU enacted the European Critical Raw Materials Act, aimed at rebuilding domestic supply chains for such minerals.

The legislation sets 2030 targets for domestic extraction, processing and recycling while limiting dependence on any single third-country supplier to 65%.

A €3 billion ($3.5 billion) fund was established last year to accelerate strategic projects.

Nevertheless, the European Court of Auditors has noted that the 2030 targets are not legally binding and that the EU remains far from achieving them.

Industry groups argue that policy inconsistencies could further slow progress.

The Cobalt Institute, which represents a sector vital to jet engines, advanced batteries and defence alloys, warned that proposed EU chemicals regulations risk undermining the industry.

“Europe has one foot in and one foot out,” said Michael Blakeney, head of government and public affairs at the London-based institute. “It says the right things, but its actions are inconsistent.”

Europe’s efforts are unfolding alongside a more aggressive US strategy to secure critical mineral supply chains.

Shagina said:

“The US is investing more capital to secure and expand capacity, taking greater financial risks and, in some cases, acquiring equity stakes. Europe, by contrast, is generally more cautious, which places it at a relative disadvantage in the competition for critical minerals.”

In April, the EU signed an agreement with the United States to coordinate supplies of critical minerals. Although some member states initially resisted over concerns that the deal could weaken the bloc’s strategic autonomy, they authorised the Commission in early June to join the US-led “Pax Silica” initiative, which coordinates investment and export-control policies.

Teer urged Europe to use ongoing US-EU-Japan negotiations as the nucleus of a broader coalition aimed at making critical mineral production outside China financially viable through state support, minimum-price mechanisms and supply rules.

“Particularly important are countries that either produce raw materials or possess significant mineral deposits, such as Malaysia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Brazil and Indonesia, as well as countries like India with large pools of skilled labour,” he said.

Teer also argued that the EU should activate its Anti-Coercion Instrument, which allows the bloc to impose tariffs and restrictions in response to economic pressure on countries outside the union, in order to deter China from introducing further restrictions.

A European Commission spokesperson said the bloc had “long been aware of the risks associated with the EU’s dependence on critical raw materials.”

“The objective is clear: to anticipate disruptions early and reduce the EU’s vulnerabilities while strengthening our industrial and defence capacities,” the spokesperson said.

Continue Reading

Europe

Four European countries move to make citizenship harder to obtain

Published

on

European countries are increasingly tightening their citizenship rules. Most recently, the Norwegian government has drafted legislation that would raise the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from three years to seven.

The proposed amendments to the citizenship law were presented by the Ministry of Labour and Social Inclusion.

Under the draft legislation, stateless individuals born in Norway, as well as those who arrived in the country as children, would be required to reside in Norway for at least five years before becoming eligible for citizenship.

The government also plans to increase residency requirements for foreign nationals who are married to or cohabiting with Norwegian citizens.

Language requirements are set to become more demanding as well. The proposal would raise the required level of spoken Norwegian proficiency from A2 to B1. The new rules would apply to applicants aged between 18 and 67.

Commenting on the changes, Minister of Labour and Social Inclusion Kjersti Stenseng said: “Obtaining and holding Norwegian citizenship should be a privilege.”

The government argues that simplifying administrative procedures while simultaneously tightening eligibility criteria will help reduce the country’s large backlog of pending applications and shorten processing times.

Norway is the latest European country to announce revisions to its citizenship rules.

In Finland, the minimum residency requirement for citizenship was increased from five years to eight years on October 1, 2024.

The country also plans to introduce a mandatory citizenship test for applicants aged between 18 and 64 from the beginning of 2027.

Finnish Interior Minister Mari Rantanen said: “The introduction of a citizenship test is the final component of a comprehensive reform aimed at making citizenship requirements more stringent.”

Sweden has also approved a similar reform. Beginning in June 2026, the standard residency requirement for citizenship will increase from five years to eight years. Authorities are also introducing a financial self-sufficiency requirement for applicants and expanding the scope of security screenings.

Explaining the rationale behind the changes, Migration Minister Johan Forssell said: “It was possible to become a citizen after living in the country for five years without knowing a single word of Swedish, learning anything about Swedish society, or even having one’s own source of income.”

The most far-reaching changes have been implemented in Portugal. Portuguese President Antonio Jose Seguro has signed legislation raising the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from five years to 10 years.

For citizens of the European Union and the Community of Portuguese Language Countries, the requirement has been set at seven years.

The residency period will now be calculated from the date a residence permit is granted rather than from the date a citizenship application is submitted. The new rules will also affect the children of immigrants.

Previously, children could obtain citizenship one year after birth if their parents held residence permits. Under the new rules, at least one parent must have legally resided in the country for a minimum of five years.

The law also introduces a mandatory examination covering Portuguese history, culture, values and social structures.

Migration policies are tightening across the European Union as well. On June 17, the European Parliament approved legislation allowing irregular migrants whose asylum applications have been rejected but who cannot be returned to their countries of origin to be deported to third countries.

The new EU rules permit the establishment of migrant detention centres outside the bloc’s borders. African countries are reportedly among the options being discussed for such facilities.

Continue Reading

Europe

SpaceX warns EU satellite spectrum plan could disrupt connectivity in Ukraine

Published

on

SpaceX has sharply criticised a European Union plan to restrict access to satellite spectrum, arguing that the proposal risks degrading connectivity in Ukraine and disrupting emergency communications services.

In a document shared with European officials and reviewed by the Financial Times, SpaceX warned:

“This proposal significantly increases the likelihood that Europeans will be deprived of direct-to-device satellite services, or that new European operations will create global interference issues, including for emergency services such as those operating in Ukraine.”

In a proposal unveiled in May, the EU recommended reserving part of the spectrum band used for direct satellite-to-smartphone connectivity for European operators, thereby limiting the frequencies available to US and Chinese providers.

The 2 GHz frequency band in question is currently used by two US companies, Viasat and EchoStar.

SpaceX argued that the EU plan prioritises “an operator’s country of establishment over economic, technical and regulatory realities.”

When the proposal was announced, EU technology chief Henna Virkkunen defended the move, saying the bloc wanted to “increase European capacity in this sector.” She added that other parts of the frequency band would remain open to international operators, arguing that prioritising European providers was justified.

Other participants involved in discussions over the proposal said some EU officials were specifically seeking to limit Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite network.

Europe’s initiative follows a warning from Washington. In March, the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) cautioned that it could take retaliatory measures if the EU chose to favour European satellite operators over alternatives such as Starlink.

At the time, FCC Chairman Brendan Carr told the Financial Times: “Some of the discussions in Europe regarding satellite sovereignty concern us. If Europe decides to move down that path, then, as you know, we will have to consider reciprocal measures.”

The European Commission’s proposal has not yet entered formal negotiations with EU member states or the European Parliament.

A source close to SpaceX said the company remained hopeful of influencing the outcome of the process, given concerns raised by both businesses and several European governments.

Continue Reading

MOST READ

Turkey