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German machinery manufacturers pivot to defense production as industrial crisis deepens

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The German mechanical engineering sector, severely impacted by a systemic industrial downturn, is increasingly transitioning to defense manufacturing to offset mounting losses and avoid potential insolvency. This strategic shift was underscored at the Hannover Messe industrial trade fair, which concludes Wednesday, April 24, 2026.

Analysis from German Foreign Policy indicates that for the first time, the fair featured a dedicated section for companies serving as suppliers for various weapon systems. This pivot occurs as the crisis in the machinery industry accelerates, characterized by collapsing production figures and a shrinking workforce.

Transitioning to defense equipment provides a commercial lifeline. For instance, a manufacturer of spark plug production machinery noted that its equipment can be readily reconfigured for the manufacture of cartridge cases. A primary advantage cited by industry players is that intense competition from China—a major disruptor in civilian markets—is not a factor in national defense contracts. Industry estimates suggest the share of defense-related production within the mechanical engineering sector could easily double in the coming years.

This militarization of the economy is beginning to influence the daily lives of workers, as an increasing number of individuals become financially dependent on the defense sector and the military for their livelihoods.

Machinery sector crisis deepens

Mechanical engineering, Germany’s second-largest industrial sector, is facing a severe crisis mirrored in the flagship automotive industry and the third-ranked chemical sector. Recent data shows the sector generated €280 billion in annual revenue and employed 933,000 people. This workforce figure represents a decline of approximately 22,000 compared to 2024 and a loss of 70,000 jobs since 2019.

Sectoral output fell by 8% in 2024 and a further 5% in 2025. In the first two months of 2026, production contracted by an additional 2% compared to the same period in the previous year. Factory capacity utilization is currently reported at just 77%.

Order intake is also in collapse, dropping 8% in real terms between December 2025 and February 2026 compared to the prior year. The decline is attributed to several factors: US tariffs, which have hit previously lucrative export markets, and surging competition from China. Chinese manufacturers are now supplying machinery of comparable quality significantly faster and at substantially lower prices. As German exports to China dwindle, imports of Chinese machinery are rising, with both trends eroding the sales of German firms.

Reshaping civilian industry for military requirements

In response to these headwinds, many machine tool manufacturers are pinning their hopes on the defense industry. According to the German Engineering Federation (VDMA), the defense sector currently accounts for an estimated 2% to 5% of total mechanical engineering revenue. Given the rapid expansion of German arms production, this share is projected to double within three to five years.

VDMA President Bertram Kawlath acknowledged that this growth will not fully compensate for the “decline in orders from the automotive industry.” Nevertheless, an internal VDMA survey revealed that 63% of member companies view the defense sector as an “important” or “very important” future client.

More than 40% of these companies anticipate double-digit sales growth to arms manufacturers in both 2026 and 2027, largely because Chinese competition is absent from the defense segment.

The newly established VDMA Security and Defense Forum is experiencing high demand. Similarly, the German Machine Tool Builders’ Association (VDW) recently launched an “Arms Industry Monitor” for its specialized clientele due to a significant surge in interest. Köln-based toolmaker Alfred H. Schütte, which produces machinery for spark plug manufacturing, exemplified the trend by noting its equipment can be easily adapted to produce explosives or cartridge cases.

Hannover Messe highlights scale of militarization

The shift toward defense production is affecting broader industrial structures. Hannover Messe, traditionally dominated by civilian mechanical engineering, introduced a dedicated Defense Manufacturing Area this year, described by organizers as a “new, forward-looking exhibition format.”

While the fair did not display finished weapon systems or main battle tanks, Handelsblatt reported that approximately 40 companies in the defense section demonstrated technologies such as automated artillery shell assembly and high-security IT workstations for government data.

At the event, which organizers still claim is the world’s largest industrial fair, exhibits included robots designed not only for testing ammunition quality but also for integration into armored vehicles for military missions. Exhibitors displayed armored steel and various IT solutions for weapon systems, alongside “hardened” devices designed to operate under extreme conditions, such as intense heat.

Emergence of new political and industrial standards

The defense stands at Hannover Messe were organized in close cooperation with the newly established DSEI Germany (Defence & Security Equipment International). This defense exhibition is scheduled to debut as an independent event in Hannover from March 9–12, 2027.

The initiative aims to bring together defense contractors, suppliers, and policymakers. Jochen Köckler, CEO of Deutsche Messe AG, stated that DSEI Germany intends to “set new standards both politically and industrially.” Major German defense firms, including Rheinmetall, Hensoldt, and Diehl Defence, have already confirmed their participation. Organizers emphasized that DSEI Germany will focus heavily on “next-generation” weapon systems.

This is not the only new defense fair emerging amid the sector’s boom; another event, Euro Defence Expo (EUDEX), has been announced for Essen from September 22–25, 2026. DSEI Germany will be held biennially in coordination with the British DSEI, which has been hosted in London since 2001.

The militarization of daily life

The growing importance of the arms industry to the struggling mechanical engineering sector illustrates how individual companies and major industrial events are being drawn into a cycle of militarization.

The consequences of this shift extend into the daily lives of the workforce. Companies producing directly or indirectly for the German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr) must comply with additional security regulations. Employees involved in defense production often undergo specialized security screenings and are subject to strict confidentiality requirements.

An increasing number of households are becoming financially dependent on arms production. This trend is not confined to mechanical engineering. For example, the medical technology firm Dräger, known for the ventilators used during the COVID-19 pandemic, also produces gas masks and constructs field hospitals for installation on naval frigates.

As the defense industry penetrates previously civilian sectors of the economy and the labor market, and as the Bundeswehr gains rapid prominence, changes in public consciousness are occurring that threaten to deeply transform German society. According to German Foreign Policy, political and economic militarization is increasingly being accompanied by a broader societal militarization.

Europe

China’s critical mineral restrictions challenge EU defence expansion plans

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The European Union’s plans to expand its defence capabilities are being hindered by China’s export controls and sales restrictions on critical raw materials.

In response, EU leaders are urging member states to accelerate efforts to diversify supply chains.

According to Nikkei Asia, the European Commission announced last week that it would propose new legislation requiring companies across the bloc to broaden their supplier base in an effort to address economic imbalances, although it did not explicitly name China.

The war in Ukraine and growing uncertainty over Washington’s security guarantees have pushed European governments to increase military spending and defence production.

At the same time, according to a report published in May by Joris Teer, a policy analyst at the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), China accounts for at least 70% of global mining or refining activity in 17 of the 34 materials classified as critical by the EU. Eight of those 34 materials are currently subject to Chinese export controls.

“China is undermining Europe’s rearmament efforts,” Teer wrote. “Simply by activating this tool, China has already increased its leverage and demonstrated both the capability and willingness to restrict supply whenever it chooses.”

The Aerospace, Security and Defence Industries Association of Europe also warned that geopolitical developments and intensifying global competition for critical raw materials are further underscoring the need to strengthen European supply chains.

The organisation represents more than 4,000 companies, including Britain’s BAE Systems, France’s Thales and Germany’s Rheinmetall.

European defence manufacturers are pursuing a range of strategies, including vertical integration, recycling, diversification and stockpiling.

Rheinmetall told Nikkei Asia that it has “no dependencies” and is “well prepared” regarding critical minerals.

A company spokesperson said: “Rheinmetall has stockpiled key raw materials sufficient for several years. We have also implemented IT systems that allow us to centrally monitor and precisely manage raw material consumption across the entire group.”

Analysts, however, caution that stockpiling alone will not be sufficient. Maria Shagina, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said: “Stockpiling serves as an important buffer against sudden disruptions, but on its own it is unlikely to mitigate structural damage over the long term.”

Shagina added that replacing the volume and diversity of critical minerals controlled by Beijing with alternative sources would take years.

In 2024, the EU enacted the European Critical Raw Materials Act, aimed at rebuilding domestic supply chains for such minerals.

The legislation sets 2030 targets for domestic extraction, processing and recycling while limiting dependence on any single third-country supplier to 65%.

A €3 billion ($3.5 billion) fund was established last year to accelerate strategic projects.

Nevertheless, the European Court of Auditors has noted that the 2030 targets are not legally binding and that the EU remains far from achieving them.

Industry groups argue that policy inconsistencies could further slow progress.

The Cobalt Institute, which represents a sector vital to jet engines, advanced batteries and defence alloys, warned that proposed EU chemicals regulations risk undermining the industry.

“Europe has one foot in and one foot out,” said Michael Blakeney, head of government and public affairs at the London-based institute. “It says the right things, but its actions are inconsistent.”

Europe’s efforts are unfolding alongside a more aggressive US strategy to secure critical mineral supply chains.

Shagina said:

“The US is investing more capital to secure and expand capacity, taking greater financial risks and, in some cases, acquiring equity stakes. Europe, by contrast, is generally more cautious, which places it at a relative disadvantage in the competition for critical minerals.”

In April, the EU signed an agreement with the United States to coordinate supplies of critical minerals. Although some member states initially resisted over concerns that the deal could weaken the bloc’s strategic autonomy, they authorised the Commission in early June to join the US-led “Pax Silica” initiative, which coordinates investment and export-control policies.

Teer urged Europe to use ongoing US-EU-Japan negotiations as the nucleus of a broader coalition aimed at making critical mineral production outside China financially viable through state support, minimum-price mechanisms and supply rules.

“Particularly important are countries that either produce raw materials or possess significant mineral deposits, such as Malaysia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Brazil and Indonesia, as well as countries like India with large pools of skilled labour,” he said.

Teer also argued that the EU should activate its Anti-Coercion Instrument, which allows the bloc to impose tariffs and restrictions in response to economic pressure on countries outside the union, in order to deter China from introducing further restrictions.

A European Commission spokesperson said the bloc had “long been aware of the risks associated with the EU’s dependence on critical raw materials.”

“The objective is clear: to anticipate disruptions early and reduce the EU’s vulnerabilities while strengthening our industrial and defence capacities,” the spokesperson said.

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Four European countries move to make citizenship harder to obtain

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European countries are increasingly tightening their citizenship rules. Most recently, the Norwegian government has drafted legislation that would raise the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from three years to seven.

The proposed amendments to the citizenship law were presented by the Ministry of Labour and Social Inclusion.

Under the draft legislation, stateless individuals born in Norway, as well as those who arrived in the country as children, would be required to reside in Norway for at least five years before becoming eligible for citizenship.

The government also plans to increase residency requirements for foreign nationals who are married to or cohabiting with Norwegian citizens.

Language requirements are set to become more demanding as well. The proposal would raise the required level of spoken Norwegian proficiency from A2 to B1. The new rules would apply to applicants aged between 18 and 67.

Commenting on the changes, Minister of Labour and Social Inclusion Kjersti Stenseng said: “Obtaining and holding Norwegian citizenship should be a privilege.”

The government argues that simplifying administrative procedures while simultaneously tightening eligibility criteria will help reduce the country’s large backlog of pending applications and shorten processing times.

Norway is the latest European country to announce revisions to its citizenship rules.

In Finland, the minimum residency requirement for citizenship was increased from five years to eight years on October 1, 2024.

The country also plans to introduce a mandatory citizenship test for applicants aged between 18 and 64 from the beginning of 2027.

Finnish Interior Minister Mari Rantanen said: “The introduction of a citizenship test is the final component of a comprehensive reform aimed at making citizenship requirements more stringent.”

Sweden has also approved a similar reform. Beginning in June 2026, the standard residency requirement for citizenship will increase from five years to eight years. Authorities are also introducing a financial self-sufficiency requirement for applicants and expanding the scope of security screenings.

Explaining the rationale behind the changes, Migration Minister Johan Forssell said: “It was possible to become a citizen after living in the country for five years without knowing a single word of Swedish, learning anything about Swedish society, or even having one’s own source of income.”

The most far-reaching changes have been implemented in Portugal. Portuguese President Antonio Jose Seguro has signed legislation raising the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from five years to 10 years.

For citizens of the European Union and the Community of Portuguese Language Countries, the requirement has been set at seven years.

The residency period will now be calculated from the date a residence permit is granted rather than from the date a citizenship application is submitted. The new rules will also affect the children of immigrants.

Previously, children could obtain citizenship one year after birth if their parents held residence permits. Under the new rules, at least one parent must have legally resided in the country for a minimum of five years.

The law also introduces a mandatory examination covering Portuguese history, culture, values and social structures.

Migration policies are tightening across the European Union as well. On June 17, the European Parliament approved legislation allowing irregular migrants whose asylum applications have been rejected but who cannot be returned to their countries of origin to be deported to third countries.

The new EU rules permit the establishment of migrant detention centres outside the bloc’s borders. African countries are reportedly among the options being discussed for such facilities.

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SpaceX warns EU satellite spectrum plan could disrupt connectivity in Ukraine

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SpaceX has sharply criticised a European Union plan to restrict access to satellite spectrum, arguing that the proposal risks degrading connectivity in Ukraine and disrupting emergency communications services.

In a document shared with European officials and reviewed by the Financial Times, SpaceX warned:

“This proposal significantly increases the likelihood that Europeans will be deprived of direct-to-device satellite services, or that new European operations will create global interference issues, including for emergency services such as those operating in Ukraine.”

In a proposal unveiled in May, the EU recommended reserving part of the spectrum band used for direct satellite-to-smartphone connectivity for European operators, thereby limiting the frequencies available to US and Chinese providers.

The 2 GHz frequency band in question is currently used by two US companies, Viasat and EchoStar.

SpaceX argued that the EU plan prioritises “an operator’s country of establishment over economic, technical and regulatory realities.”

When the proposal was announced, EU technology chief Henna Virkkunen defended the move, saying the bloc wanted to “increase European capacity in this sector.” She added that other parts of the frequency band would remain open to international operators, arguing that prioritising European providers was justified.

Other participants involved in discussions over the proposal said some EU officials were specifically seeking to limit Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite network.

Europe’s initiative follows a warning from Washington. In March, the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) cautioned that it could take retaliatory measures if the EU chose to favour European satellite operators over alternatives such as Starlink.

At the time, FCC Chairman Brendan Carr told the Financial Times: “Some of the discussions in Europe regarding satellite sovereignty concern us. If Europe decides to move down that path, then, as you know, we will have to consider reciprocal measures.”

The European Commission’s proposal has not yet entered formal negotiations with EU member states or the European Parliament.

A source close to SpaceX said the company remained hopeful of influencing the outcome of the process, given concerns raised by both businesses and several European governments.

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