Diplomacy
Germany and Brazil expand strategic ties with new frigate deal and raw material pact
Germany and Brazil are significantly expanding their strategic cooperation, with a primary focus on the raw materials sector and the defense industry as both nations move to launch a series of new joint projects.
During high-level talks held on Monday, April 20, in Hannover between German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Brazilian President Luis Inácio Lula da Silva, the Brazilian Navy reached an agreement to purchase four additional frigates. These vessels will be supplied by the German shipbuilder TKMS, which is already fulfilling an existing order for four frigates for the Brazilian fleet.
The negotiations took place on the sidelines of the Hannover Messe, where Brazil is this year’s partner country, and occurred within the framework of the third Germany-Brazil intergovernmental consultations.
A primary driver behind this intensifying cooperation is the significant pressure exerted on Brazil by US President Donald Trump. Washington is currently demanding exclusive access to Brazil’s rare earth element reserves while simultaneously attempting to exert direct influence over the Brazilian presidential elections scheduled for October.
Seeking support against US interventionism, Lula has emerged as a vocal advocate for multilateralism. “Trump was not elected emperor of the world,” the Brazilian leader stated in response to the pressure from Washington.
Lula’s visit to Berlin took place against a highly sensitive political backdrop. The Trump administration has begun a process of fracturing existing regional organizations in Latin America—specifically the Organization of American States (OAS) and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC). In their place, Washington has moved to establish a new organization composed exclusively of right-wing and far-right governments: the Shield of the Americas alliance.
To date, twelve states have joined this alliance. Alongside the US, members include Argentina under Javier Milei, El Salvador under Nayib Bukele, and Ecuador under President Daniel Noboa, the heir to a vast banana industry dynasty.
Officially, the Shield of the Americas is intended to combat drug cartels. To this end, its primary focus is on military operations, mirroring recent US actions in the Caribbean. In that theater, the US military has so far conducted 52 missile strikes against vessels alleged or confirmed to be carrying narcotics, resulting in at least 180 fatalities.
Observers suspect that, in the long term, this far-right alliance is also intended to bolster Washington’s efforts to counter Chinese influence across the continent. Currently, the three most populous nations in the region—Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia—are led by left-wing or social-democratic administrations and remain outside the alliance.
This regional dynamic may be subject to change as Brazil approaches its presidential elections in October. While Lula’s candidacy has not yet been officially confirmed, his opponent is expected to be Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. The elder Bolsonaro remains in detention following an attempted coup in early 2023, while his son Eduardo, initially viewed as his political successor, resides in exile in the US amid accusations of obstructing justice.
For an extended period, Lula maintained a significant lead in the polls. However, Flávio Bolsonaro began to close the gap in late 2025, and a victory for Lula is no longer considered certain.
Trump has explicitly endorsed Flávio Bolsonaro, with whom he shares a close political affinity, as he does with the entire Bolsonaro family. Several weeks ago, Darren Beattie, an influential State Department official, attempted to visit the imprisoned Jair Bolsonaro for public relations purposes while also seeking a meeting with Flávio. The Lula administration blocked these efforts, denying Beattie entry into the country and citing blatant interference in domestic affairs.
Previously, Trump attempted to force a suspension of the criminal proceedings against Jair Bolsonaro by imposing punitive tariffs, though this effort ultimately failed.
Parallel to the escalating friction with Washington, Lula issued several sharp critiques of the Trump administration’s policies ahead of the third Germany-Brazil intergovernmental consultations, which commenced yesterday.
In an interview with Der Spiegel last week, he stated: “Trump was not elected emperor of the world. He cannot constantly threaten other countries with war.”
Lula further argued in an op-ed for the Tagesspiegel newspaper that the world is being transformed into a “single theater of war” and urgently requires “bringing under order.” He added, “I am convinced that there is no alternative to multilateralism.”
Consequently, Brazil intends to partner with Germany to inject new momentum into multilateral policy. At the opening of the Hannover Messe on Sunday, Lula described the war conducted by the US and Israel against Iran as “madness.” He noted that it is unacceptable for the world to spend approximately $2.7 trillion annually on wars while countless people continue to live in poverty or suffer from hunger.
In the spirit of a multilateral order, and to counterbalance the growing US influence over Brazil’s vital raw materials sector, Lula proposed closer cooperation with Friedrich Merz regarding mineral resources.
Brazil possesses vast quantities of raw materials, including highly sought-after rare earth elements and niobium, which is essential for the production of solar cells.
Fierce competition has erupted specifically over rare earth elements. Until now, these elements were extracted by the Brazilian company Serra Verde, which processed them in China. However, following a significant loan from the US, the company was recently forced to agree to supply rare earth elements exclusively to the US or, at most, its allies.
The implications of this agreement remain unclear, as the rights to allocate raw materials in Brazil belong to the government. The Lula administration is pushing for the establishment of rare earth processing facilities within Brazil to ensure the country controls a larger portion of the value chain. In this context, Lula suggested that German companies, alongside American and Chinese firms, participate in this process.
In addition to resource cooperation, Germany and Brazil are expanding their military and defense ties. According to the German Ministry of Defense, Minister Boris Pistorius and Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in Hannover on Monday.
The MoU stipulates that Berlin and Brasília will “intensify cooperation in various sea, land, and air-based procurement projects.” This collaboration is intended to cover the “entire process” of procurement, ranging from “contract negotiations and training to the integration and operation of systems.”
Furthermore, both parties agreed on the delivery of four additional frigates to the Brazilian Navy. Germany has not traditionally been among the most prominent arms suppliers to the South American nation, as Brazil has historically sourced defense equipment from France, Italy, and the US.
However, in 2019, TKMS successfully secured a contract to deliver four MEKO A-100 class frigates to Brazil. These vessels are being constructed domestically in Brazil at Itajaí, located several hundred kilometers south of São Paulo, by the Águas Azuis consortium—a joint venture between TKMS and the Brazilian company Embraer. The Águas Azuis consortium is now preparing to build the four additional frigates, signaling a broader expansion of bilateral defense cooperation.
Diplomacy
Vance leads indirect push for US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks
US Vice-President JD Vance has been personally involved over the past two weeks in indirect talks with Iran aimed at securing a fresh ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations.
According to Axios, Vance’s intense engagement indicates that he has taken it upon himself to extract the US from the conflict, which he views as responsible for the Republican Party’s shocking losses in this week’s elections.
This elevates the latest round of indirect talks to the highest echelons of the administration.
US officials and regional sources state that Trump is currently willing to let diplomatic efforts run their course to see whether any agreement is achievable.
Asked by reporters on Friday what his message was to Iran, Trump said, “We are talking to them.”
According to sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Vance speaks almost daily with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and other mediators regarding the negotiations with Iran.
White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, are also involved in the process.
Sources say Vance and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators have been discussing the possibility of holding a working-level technical meeting between the US and Iran in the coming days, though this has not yet materialized.
Before the war began in late February, Vance was among the most sceptical voices in Trump’s inner circle on the issue, advocating instead for a diplomatic solution.
In April, he led the US negotiating delegation at the Iran summit held in Islamabad and was personally involved in the talks that yielded a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran in June.
Vance subsequently headed the US delegation during a series of direct talks with Iran in Switzerland.
Two weeks ago, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing that direct negotiations resume.
Rezaei is one of the closest advisers to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.
Iranian officials noted that Vance’s letter generated positive momentum toward restarting talks.
On Wednesday, Vance said the war was the primary reason for the Republicans’ repudiation at the polls.
Sources involved in mediation efforts report that while progress is being made, the process is moving very slowly.
On Friday evening, the prime minister of Qatar said, “Over the past few weeks, we worked with our colleagues in the US administration who have a sincere intention to contain the situation and de-escalate. Thanks to them and the voices of reason in Tehran, we prevented the situation from spinning out of control.”
The prime minister added that discussions with the Trump administration continued following the midterm elections, though they were not as active as in previous days “because there are other matters.”
Nevertheless, he noted that the US intention to find a diplomatic resolution “remains ongoing” and emphasized that an agreement is possible.
On Friday morning, Trump and the Emir of Qatar discussed Qatari efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran as part of an accord.
According to a statement from his office, Sheikh Tamim emphasized the necessity of “pursuing dialogue and diplomatic channels to resolve differences, prevent the region from facing further escalation, and ensure freedom of maritime navigation as well as the security of energy supplies.”
Separately, Trump confirmed on Friday that the US military conducted a strike on an anti-aircraft missile launcher on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after it fired a missile at a US fighter jet.
Diplomacy
Ukraine faces demographic collapse as fertility rates slide
British magazine The Economist reported that mobilization, conflict casualties, and pervasive uncertainty have left Ukraine confronting the threat of demographic collapse.
According to data cited by the magazine, Ukraine’s fertility rate has declined from 1.2 children per woman in 2020 to between 0.8 and 0.9.
This rate marks a lower level than that of any major nation except South Korea.
In the first half of 2026, the number of deaths in Ukraine surpassed the number of newborn babies threefold.
The report noted that ever since independence was gained in 1991, the number of births in the country has lagged behind the number of deaths every year.
The Economist emphasized that the demographic collapse driven by the ongoing fighting constitutes an “existential threat.”
The magazine identified mass refugee migration as the principal driver of the population loss.
More than 5 million Ukrainians reside abroad, predominantly in Europe.
The proportion of those wishing to return among those who left the country is also steadily shrinking.
According to data from the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), the share of those seeking to return dropped from 74% in 2022 to 43%.
The fact that the majority of refugees consist of Ukrainian children and women under the age of 44 further aggravates the demographic picture.
The Kyiv government decided to exempt men under the age of 25 from mobilization to alleviate the demographic decline.
The magazine reported, however, that many young people have fled the country, while those who remain do not plan to start families.
Projections cited in the report indicate that even if hostilities cease in the coming years, Ukraine can, at best, expect merely a deceleration of depopulation.
Olga Duhnich, an expert at the Ukraine-based think tank Frontier Institute, stated that the generation born in the 1990s and 2000s is the least populous in Ukraine’s modern history, meaning the country cannot expect a post-conflict baby boom.
The United Nations (UN) projects that Ukraine’s population will decline by 0.7% to 0.9% each year over the next two decades.
Under this projection, Ukraine’s population will fall to approximately 25 million by 2040.
If hostilities drag on, people are expected to abandon plans to have children, deepening the crisis even further.
Beyond exempting men under 25 from mobilization, the Kyiv government is rolling out various support packages to boost birth rates.
Under legislation enacted in the country, parents who have children receive a direct payment of 50,000 hryvnias (around $1,100).
Parents are also paid 7,000 hryvnias each month during the first year.
Other state programmes subsidize childcare costs, while Ukrainian soldiers are granted free freezing of egg and sperm cells.
Ukrainian Minister of Social Policy Denis Ulyutin said in May to the Livyi Bereh media outlet that roughly 22 to 25 million people lived in government-controlled territories.
Ulyutin characterized the prevailing picture by saying: “This is a catastrophe.”
Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Research, estimated the population at 29 million during the same period.
Libanova attributed the steep fall from a population of 30 million in 2025 to high death rates and the demographic crisis.
In a statement in October, Libanova announced that Ukraine’s population had slipped to 28.5 million.
Institute Director Libanova said: “The population is already at 28.5 million; we lost half a million people. We lost them, but thankfully this was still caused by migration rather than casualties.”
Diplomacy
Armenian opposition urged to form joint front against constitution
Narek Karapetyan, a lawmaker and head of the Strong Armenia faction in the Armenian parliament, has urged opposition parties to unite around four core principles set out in a joint declaration.
The key points of the declaration include resisting territorial concessions and blocking the adoption of a new constitution, which the opposition has termed the “Aliyev constitution”.
According to a report by Aysor.am, Narek Karapetyan stated that the opposition meeting was originally planned to be led by his uncle, businessman and Strong Armenia movement leader Samvel Karapetyan.
“We initiated the meeting, but the authorities took preemptive steps to prevent Samvel Karapetyan from launching the national unification process,” Narek Karapetyan said.
Noting that, despite these events, opposition representatives convened and signed a joint declaration based on four agreed articles, Narek Karapetyan invited other opposition forces and members of the public to join the alliance.
“We will not allow them to implement the Aliyev constitution in Armenia. We must unite,” Karapetyan said.
Ahead of these developments, Armenian National Security Service personnel detained Strong Armenia Party leader Samvel Karapetyan following a search of his home.
The party’s press secretary, Agavni Sukiasyan, announced that on the morning of the same day, the Investigative Committee of Armenia searched the homes of both Samvel Karapetyan and Narek Karapetyan.
In a report citing the Investigative Committee, Armenpress stated that Samvel Karapetyan was detained as part of a case involving allegations of causing large-scale financial damage to the Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) company, embezzling entrusted property, and money laundering.
According to committee figures, the total damage inflicted on the company exceeds $179 million.
Narek Karapetyan’s home was also searched at the end of July as part of a criminal case.
On 22 July, Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission approved the Prosecutor General’s request to strip Narek Karapetyan of his parliamentary immunity, and Karapetyan was charged with large-scale money laundering.
According to information reported by Sputnik Armenia, the investigation is linked to charges brought against Strong Armenia supporter Aleksan Aleksanyan.
Investigative authorities allege that Aleksanyan received approximately $4.4 million and €230,000 from the Karapetyan-owned Tashir Foundation under the guise of gifts and loans.
Several criminal cases had previously been opened against Samvel Karapetyan.
In 2025, Karapetyan was charged with publicly calling for the violent seizure of power after backing the Armenian Apostolic Church, which had been criticized by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
In January, legal proceedings were also launched against Karapetyan on charges of large-scale tax evasion and money laundering.
Separately, in early July 2025, the Armenian parliament approved a bill enabling the nationalization of the Electric Networks of Armenia company.
In March, Armenia’s Constitutional Court ruled that the nationalization process in question complied with the law.
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