Diplomacy
Germany and Brazil expand strategic ties with new frigate deal and raw material pact
Germany and Brazil are significantly expanding their strategic cooperation, with a primary focus on the raw materials sector and the defense industry as both nations move to launch a series of new joint projects.
During high-level talks held on Monday, April 20, in Hannover between German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Brazilian President Luis Inácio Lula da Silva, the Brazilian Navy reached an agreement to purchase four additional frigates. These vessels will be supplied by the German shipbuilder TKMS, which is already fulfilling an existing order for four frigates for the Brazilian fleet.
The negotiations took place on the sidelines of the Hannover Messe, where Brazil is this year’s partner country, and occurred within the framework of the third Germany-Brazil intergovernmental consultations.
A primary driver behind this intensifying cooperation is the significant pressure exerted on Brazil by US President Donald Trump. Washington is currently demanding exclusive access to Brazil’s rare earth element reserves while simultaneously attempting to exert direct influence over the Brazilian presidential elections scheduled for October.
Seeking support against US interventionism, Lula has emerged as a vocal advocate for multilateralism. “Trump was not elected emperor of the world,” the Brazilian leader stated in response to the pressure from Washington.
Lula’s visit to Berlin took place against a highly sensitive political backdrop. The Trump administration has begun a process of fracturing existing regional organizations in Latin America—specifically the Organization of American States (OAS) and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC). In their place, Washington has moved to establish a new organization composed exclusively of right-wing and far-right governments: the Shield of the Americas alliance.
To date, twelve states have joined this alliance. Alongside the US, members include Argentina under Javier Milei, El Salvador under Nayib Bukele, and Ecuador under President Daniel Noboa, the heir to a vast banana industry dynasty.
Officially, the Shield of the Americas is intended to combat drug cartels. To this end, its primary focus is on military operations, mirroring recent US actions in the Caribbean. In that theater, the US military has so far conducted 52 missile strikes against vessels alleged or confirmed to be carrying narcotics, resulting in at least 180 fatalities.
Observers suspect that, in the long term, this far-right alliance is also intended to bolster Washington’s efforts to counter Chinese influence across the continent. Currently, the three most populous nations in the region—Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia—are led by left-wing or social-democratic administrations and remain outside the alliance.
This regional dynamic may be subject to change as Brazil approaches its presidential elections in October. While Lula’s candidacy has not yet been officially confirmed, his opponent is expected to be Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. The elder Bolsonaro remains in detention following an attempted coup in early 2023, while his son Eduardo, initially viewed as his political successor, resides in exile in the US amid accusations of obstructing justice.
For an extended period, Lula maintained a significant lead in the polls. However, Flávio Bolsonaro began to close the gap in late 2025, and a victory for Lula is no longer considered certain.
Trump has explicitly endorsed Flávio Bolsonaro, with whom he shares a close political affinity, as he does with the entire Bolsonaro family. Several weeks ago, Darren Beattie, an influential State Department official, attempted to visit the imprisoned Jair Bolsonaro for public relations purposes while also seeking a meeting with Flávio. The Lula administration blocked these efforts, denying Beattie entry into the country and citing blatant interference in domestic affairs.
Previously, Trump attempted to force a suspension of the criminal proceedings against Jair Bolsonaro by imposing punitive tariffs, though this effort ultimately failed.
Parallel to the escalating friction with Washington, Lula issued several sharp critiques of the Trump administration’s policies ahead of the third Germany-Brazil intergovernmental consultations, which commenced yesterday.
In an interview with Der Spiegel last week, he stated: “Trump was not elected emperor of the world. He cannot constantly threaten other countries with war.”
Lula further argued in an op-ed for the Tagesspiegel newspaper that the world is being transformed into a “single theater of war” and urgently requires “bringing under order.” He added, “I am convinced that there is no alternative to multilateralism.”
Consequently, Brazil intends to partner with Germany to inject new momentum into multilateral policy. At the opening of the Hannover Messe on Sunday, Lula described the war conducted by the US and Israel against Iran as “madness.” He noted that it is unacceptable for the world to spend approximately $2.7 trillion annually on wars while countless people continue to live in poverty or suffer from hunger.
In the spirit of a multilateral order, and to counterbalance the growing US influence over Brazil’s vital raw materials sector, Lula proposed closer cooperation with Friedrich Merz regarding mineral resources.
Brazil possesses vast quantities of raw materials, including highly sought-after rare earth elements and niobium, which is essential for the production of solar cells.
Fierce competition has erupted specifically over rare earth elements. Until now, these elements were extracted by the Brazilian company Serra Verde, which processed them in China. However, following a significant loan from the US, the company was recently forced to agree to supply rare earth elements exclusively to the US or, at most, its allies.
The implications of this agreement remain unclear, as the rights to allocate raw materials in Brazil belong to the government. The Lula administration is pushing for the establishment of rare earth processing facilities within Brazil to ensure the country controls a larger portion of the value chain. In this context, Lula suggested that German companies, alongside American and Chinese firms, participate in this process.
In addition to resource cooperation, Germany and Brazil are expanding their military and defense ties. According to the German Ministry of Defense, Minister Boris Pistorius and Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in Hannover on Monday.
The MoU stipulates that Berlin and Brasília will “intensify cooperation in various sea, land, and air-based procurement projects.” This collaboration is intended to cover the “entire process” of procurement, ranging from “contract negotiations and training to the integration and operation of systems.”
Furthermore, both parties agreed on the delivery of four additional frigates to the Brazilian Navy. Germany has not traditionally been among the most prominent arms suppliers to the South American nation, as Brazil has historically sourced defense equipment from France, Italy, and the US.
However, in 2019, TKMS successfully secured a contract to deliver four MEKO A-100 class frigates to Brazil. These vessels are being constructed domestically in Brazil at Itajaí, located several hundred kilometers south of São Paulo, by the Águas Azuis consortium—a joint venture between TKMS and the Brazilian company Embraer. The Águas Azuis consortium is now preparing to build the four additional frigates, signaling a broader expansion of bilateral defense cooperation.
Diplomacy
Anthropic uncovers Claude use by Iranian, Houthi, and Russian units
Artificial intelligence company Anthropic has disclosed attempted “abuses” of its Claude AI model ranging from conventional weapons to biological research by state-linked entities, foreign intelligence services, and cybercrime networks, publishing the findings in a detailed threat intelligence report.
A significant portion of the report comprised the development of guided missile software by the Houthis in northern Yemen and the conversion of the model into a military reconnaissance tool by Iran-linked actors seeking to target US naval assets in the Middle East.
Covering the period between December 2025 and August 2026, the report shared details of activities detected across seven primary areas: cyberattacks, influence operations, mass surveillance, conventional weapons development, biological risks, and unauthorised model distillation.
The company announced that it had terminated all accounts violating its rules and shared the resulting data with relevant international counterparts.
According to findings by Anthropic’s Threat Intelligence unit, a weapons cell based in northern Yemen, where the Houthis operate, substituted human software engineers with the Claude Code system across three distinct missile development programmes.
These efforts comprised a tactical rocket equipped with a terminal guidance system powered by a commercial smartphone processor, a multi-stage ballistic missile with a target range exceeding 2,000 kilometres, and missile designs carrying a hypersonic glide vehicle.
The cell utilised the artificial intelligence to adapt open-source autopilot software to the smartphone processor, optimize flight control algorithms, and compile firmware.
Structuring their Claude accounts like a virtual engineering team, the Houthis assigned one account to write code, another to conduct research, and a third to review and audit the written code.
The report noted that the group conducted an actual test launch with a guided rocket in the Yemeni theatre.
Immediately following the failure of the live-fire test, the actors were documented returning to the Claude platform within hours to upload telemetry data and diagnose the cause of the malfunction.
The cell was observed successfully compiling offline simulation tools capable of operating independently even if access to Claude were severed.
We're publishing our most detailed threat intelligence report to date.
It covers how people tried to misuse Claude—for cyberattacks, influence operations, surveillance, biology, and building weapons—and how we found and stopped them.
We disrupted every operation in the report,…
— Anthropic (@AnthropicAI) September 10, 2026
Iran tracked US warships and personnel
Another military case detailed in the report involved attempts by Iran-linked cyber actors to target US naval forces in the Middle East.
These actors were found to have scraped open-source military data to draft operational targeting manuals directed against American warships and personnel.
Iran extracted name rosters of American military personnel from the captions of publicly accessible military photographs, monitored vessel and aircraft transponder data, authored code to scan commercial satellite imagery, and mapped vulnerabilities in maritime satellite communication terminals.
Other networks linked to the Tehran government were determined to have developed domestic and regional surveillance systems. A Qom-based unit produced a malicious web browser extension disguised as a prayer-time application to harvest credentials from social network users, funneling the data into a central case management system designated “Arman”.
Additionally, official Iranian institutions reportedly cloned authors’ voices using AI and operated multilingual disinformation networks to lay the groundwork for the supreme leadership succession.
Russia also used it for an autonomous kamikaze drone swarm
The report stated that an independent Russia-based software team developed fully autonomous kamikaze uncrewed aerial vehicle swarm software dubbed “DronDoc” or “Serafim”.
Affiliated with a university connected to the Russian Academy of Sciences, the team was said to have trained the artificial intelligence to distinguish between friendly and hostile elements using footage retrieved from the Ukrainian battlefield.
The developed system was designed with the capability to select targets, execute live human classification, and issue detonation commands without requiring human intervention, with simulations run directly against coordinates in the Donetsk region.
Meanwhile, the Russian-origin “Midnight Blizzard” group targeted the Ukrainian drone supply chain and staged attacks aimed at foreign officials and drone engineers by compromising hotel Wi-Fi networks.
A procurement manager stationed at a design bureau in Moscow was also discovered drafting plans via Claude to circumvent European sanctions. The individual was recorded assembling fraudulent tender and logistics correspondence to transport German-made magnetometers, space-grade photovoltaic sheets, and military aviation oxygen systems into Russia through intermediary firms based in China and Hong Kong.
Biological threats and pathogen engineering
The report disclosed five concrete cases regarding the deployment of artificial intelligence in hazardous biological research. Virologists attached to a military research institute were documented using AI for gain-of-function research aimed at enhancing the transmissibility and immune-evasion capabilities of the mosquito-borne Chikungunya virus.
Similarly, experimental designs were prepared to adapt the H5 avian influenza variant, which carries a 50% mortality rate in humans, to mammals and confer airborne transmission capabilities, while immune-evasion mechanisms of pathogens from the smallpox virus family were modelled.
The identities of paralytic neurotoxins subject to export control lists and haemorrhagic fever virus proteins featured on the World Health Organization’s priority epidemic list were deliberately masked and submitted to the AI for analysis.
In addition, a consultant working on behalf of the Malian State Intelligence Service designed a mass surveillance platform designated “Lakana 360” with the assistance of Claude.
The system was designed to monitor approximately 25 million SIM cards registered across three mobile operators in the country without requiring court orders, intercept audio recordings, and cross-reference records with biometric databases.
Separately, leading Chinese artificial intelligence firms including Alibaba, Moonshot, DeepSeek, Zhipu, and Xiaomi were alleged to have initiated hundreds of millions of unauthorised sessions to extract the logical reasoning chains of Claude models. Moonshot and DeepSeek platforms reportedly routed their own users’ queries secretly through Claude, in the process exposing Chinese police surveillance feeds from hundreds of cameras covering military facilities in Chengdu, internal credentials of Chinese state-owned enterprises, and live database access codes connected to the Russian Defence Ministry to third parties.
Türkiye detail in the report
The report also detailed cases involving the abuse of the Claude AI model, incorporating findings concerning an Istanbul-based technology firm.
In case GTG-84005 of the intelligence report, an operation aimed at commercial election manipulation targeting voters in Malaysia was intercepted.
According to the findings, the operation operated under the guise of a startup providing cyber intelligence and counter-disinformation tools. Anthropic determined that Istanbul-based BBS Bilisim Teknolojileri was behind the infrastructure.
According to documents, the company marketed the architecture as a paid influence operation service styled as a “military-grade, AI-powered, real-time political operations ecosystem”.
Managing roughly 1,000 synthetic X accounts, the system processed demographic and electoral data across 222 parliamentary constituencies in Malaysia, calibrating targeting around sensitive social fault lines including ethnicity, religion, and the monarchy.
The network also circulated content from Russian and Chinese state media masquerading as independent Malaysian news via an artificial media outlet designated “Malaysia Pulse”, while manufacturing fraudulent intelligence dossiers targeting an opposition politician and civil society organisations.
Anthropic reported that the network received a request to generate 1 million artificial impressions in support of the Malaysian Prime Minister and sought to secure a contract with the country’s national communications regulatory authority.
While no evidence emerged that the undertaking succeeded, the associated user accounts were closed and operational digital indicators were shared.
Diplomacy
EU pursues closer ties with Israel on space and air defence
The EU is turning to Israel to bolster its new initiatives in high-tech air defence and space capabilities.
Shimrit Maman, head of the Israel Space Agency, travelled to Brussels this week and met on Tuesday with European Commissioner for Startups, Research and Innovation Ekaterina Zaharieva to discuss key sectors, including artificial intelligence and robotics.
The visit took place ahead of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s first major speech on space, scheduled for Thursday at a summit in Paris.
In the speech, Von der Leyen is expected to warn against mounting hostilities and emphasise the necessity of strengthening Europe’s presence in space.
“It’s very hard to do everything by yourself,” Maman told Politico, adding that the militarization of space is “already happening, it’s just we are not aware of the extent,” and noting that allies are showing growing interest in “dual-use” technologies intended for both civilian and defence purposes:
“One thing we’re working on is early-warning systems. For example, during the last wave [of missile attacks] with Iran, we saw this very clearly. How we were getting the alerts to all the civilians in Israel, and that made the casualties so low. This is part of the system. We’re working on a very holistic view, where you can alert in advance, the system alerts the citizens.”
Following several years of effective disengagement caused by political tensions surrounding the invasion of Gaza, the EU has recently begun forging closer military and technological ties with Israel through a series of agreements.
Competition from Washington and strategic rivalry with Moscow and Beijing have nevertheless underlined the requirement for allies possessing sophisticated industrial capacity.
In 2024, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen backed calls by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis to create an EU-funded air defence shield.
Three senior officials involved in the discussions said, however, that the plans stalled after officials in the Commission and several national capitals concluded that the project would require reliance on Israeli air defence technology, which was considered too sensitive one year into the Gaza conflict.
Yet Israel’s Rafael, which is expanding its European operations significantly, has now confirmed that it will open a factory to manufacture the Iron Dome air defence system at a former Volkswagen plant in Germany.
One week ago, Greece signed a 3 billion euro agreement with the Israel Ministry of Defense.
The deal provides for the establishment of a new multi-layered air defence network designed to shoot down drones, hostile jets, and rockets.
“We see everything integrating into this multi-layer defence approach,” Maman said, highlighting satellite imagery and artificial intelligence modelling as primary focal points for joint development efforts:
“I’m not only seeing defence as ballistic missiles from Iran… think about a fire, a flash flood or even a long drought… we have a proven track record, and we’re getting really good results.”
Diplomacy
UK reassures US that new Israeli settlement sanctions are symbolic
The UK has reportedly engaged in behind-the-scenes talks to avoid a backlash from the US over anti-Israel sanctions scheduled for announcement today.
According to a report by Bloomberg, Andy Burnham’s government is expected to ban trade with Israeli settlements in the West Bank today.
Burnham is seeking to pursue a firmer stance on an issue of high importance to the governing Labour Party, though one that risks angering US President Donald Trump.
Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband will unveil a new sanctions regime targeting Israel but limited to Jewish settlements in the West Bank, according to sources familiar with the matter.
Burnham and Trump spoke by telephone on Monday, the Prime Minister’s Office said. A statement noted that the two leaders discussed a two-state solution for Israel and the Palestinian territories.
The discussion suggests that Burnham used the call to notify Trump that sanctions against Israel were imminent.
The proposals under review included a new sanctions regime with measures to block the exchange of goods and services with Israeli settlements.
Miliband also evaluated expanding existing human rights sanctions to encompass the blocking of aid, which has drawn criticism for exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
The Foreign Secretary further considered explicitly endorsing the International Court of Justice’s non-binding 2024 opinion that declared Israel’s occupation of territory currently recognised by the UK as the State of Palestine to be unlawful.
Even so, UK officials fear the announcement could cause an early setback in Burnham’s relationship with Trump.
To defuse a backlash from the Trump administration, British diplomats privately informed the US that the sanctions are largely symbolic and will have no tangible impact on the UK’s broader trade or security ties with Israel, according to sources familiar with the discussions.
The proposals were drawn up after Israel decided to issue tenders for the construction of 1,200 settlement housing units in an area of the West Bank.
Disputes between Israeli settlers and Palestinians have intensified in recent months as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a difficult battle to retain his seat in a general election scheduled for 27 October.
Burnham joined the leaders of Canada and five European governments, including France, Germany, and Italy, in signing a statement that condemned the housing plan as “unacceptable” and urged Netanyahu to withdraw the tender.
In a separate statement, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz condemned a call by Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir for “nightly assassinations” in Gaza.
Burnham is eager to demonstrate early to the Labour Party that he is adopting a more critical approach toward Israel than his predecessor, Keir Starmer.
Although Starmer hardened his stance against Israel during his two years in office, including by formally recognising the State of Palestine, his initial refusal to demand that Netanyahu halt military operations in Gaza divided the party.
This division led to a decline in Labour’s poll ratings and boosted electoral gains for the Green Party across the country.
Burnham’s return to Parliament last month led to Starmer’s resignation. Burnham apologised for Labour’s handling of Israel’s military operation in Gaza under his predecessor, stating that the party “did not adopt the right stance”.
Last month, Burnham’s new Defence Secretary, Wes Streeting, who faced intense competition from a Muslim independent candidate in his northeast London constituency at the last general election, stated that Israel had fallen “short” of international standards.
US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee told the BBC’s “Newsday” programme that there would “undoubtedly” be a US response.
Accusing the Labour Party of “discriminating against the Israeli government”, Huckabee said: “It is like throwing a rock and not knowing where it lands. The UK is a sovereign country and can do as it pleases, but so is the US.”
Republican Florida Congressman Randy Fine also warned that British firms would be barred from doing business with local governments in the state if sanctions were imposed.
In a post on X, Fine said: “Florida has made its stance clear. Any company—or country—that boycotts Israel will be boycotted by Florida.”
Labour MPs and Jewish groups have warned the government that any sanctions against the settlements could amount to a “de facto boycott” of Israeli goods and compromise the safety of British Jews.
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