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IMF’s help is not a long-term solution for Pakistan’s fragile economy: Experts

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Pakistan has finally secured the approval of $3 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), unlocking the long-awaited lending that could help stabilize the delicate economy of the country, thought in a temporary period. The approval could help ease the nation’s dire need for cash and somehow give a new start for the country to help rescue its economy.

The Executive Board of the (IMF) approved a 9-month Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) for Pakistan for an amount of $3 billion, or “111 percent of quota” to support the authorities’ economic stabilization program, IMF said in a statement.

Indeed, the approval comes at a challenging economic juncture for Pakistan. A difficult external environment, devastating floods, and policy missteps have led to large fiscal and external deficits, rising inflation, and eroded reserve buffers in the fiscal year.

IMF expects the new approval to lead to Pakistan’s economic reform aims to support immediate efforts to stabilize the economy and guard against shocks while creating the space for social and development spending to help the people of Pakistan.

“Steadfast policy implementation will be critical for Pakistan and the success of the program, which requires greater fiscal discipline, a market-determined exchange rate to absorb external pressures, and further progress on reforms related to the energy sector, climate resilience, and the business climate,” the statement added.

Nearly 230 million nations facing acute balance of payment crisis

But experts say that this approval is not a long-time solution for the country where its 230 million nations are facing an acute balance of payments crisis.

The bailout had been frozen since December and the IMF refused to release $1.1 billion of the loan and blamed Pakistani authorities for not complying with the 2019 agreement signed between the IMF and the then Prime Minister Imran Khan.

The hold on the funds was a big headache for the incumbent government and had created fears that the country would default, giving no hope for the country’s economy.

After months of discussion and struggle, finally the ballot has been approved, a Pakistani expert said, but is skeptical the money could solve the longer solution of an economy-starved nation.

In long-term the agreement would fuel further economic crises

“For the time being it may be a relief but in the long-term it would fuel further economic crises in Pakistan,” Shamim Shahid, a Pakistan political expert told Harici.

Inflation in Pakistan touches all time high.

He furthered that “Pakistan’s Non Development and Defense” expenditures are badly affecting its budgetary allocations, developmental and economic sectors.

“Pakistan, if it really wants to end its economic and financial crises, must slash its non development and defense expenditures. With slashing defense expenditures almost all economic crises could be combated and IMF debts may be reimbursed,” Shahid added.

Analysts say that Pakistan needs at least $20 billion in the next two years to pay its foreign loans. The money is included with interest. Meanwhile, the currency value of Pakistan against dollars has dropped significantly.

The currency and inflation is almost out of control, and now all eyes are on the new agreement to at least stabilize the currency and inflation.

Remaining $1.8 billion will be released in two installments

An Islamabad-based writer and expert, Naveed Aman Khan told Harici that at the stage when Pakistan was at the verge of economic collapse the IMF had released $1.2 billion and it is a good sign.

“Remaining $1.8 billion will be released in two installments. By this year Pakistan will have to bear $ 136 billion burden on its shoulders. Last year external loans were $123.57 billion which may reach $152.136 billion by 2027-28,” Khan added.

Khan furthered that foreign reserves are still far beneath country’s level. “China, Saudi Arabia and UAE have extended their cooperation to avoid economic collapse,” he added, calling it a great achievement for the government.

The positive thing is that Pakistan has gone through a number of reforms to meet the demand of the IMF since its mission arrived in the country in February. These changes include revising its 2023-24 budgets. The IMF also demanded the central bank of Pakistan to remain proactive to reduce inflation.

At the same time, reforms in the energy sector which has accumulated $12.58 billion in debt have been a key agenda of the talks between IMF and the Pakistani authorities.

Pakistan’s PM reaction to the agreement

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has welcomed the IMF agreement and said it will help the country improve its economy.

“The approval of the Stand-by Agreement of $3 billion by the IMF’s Executive Board is a major step forward in the government’s efforts to stabilize the economy and achieve macroeconomic stability,” Shehbaz added.

Pakistan primer furthered: “It (agreement) bolsters Pakistan’s economic position to overcome immediate- to medium-term economic challenges, giving the next government the fiscal space to chart the way forward. This milestone, which was achieved against the heaviest of odds and against a seemingly impossible deadline, could not have been possible without excellent team effort,” he added.

Analysts say that the approval of the IMF bailout will also encourage other countries and international financial institutions to help start funding Islamabad to overcome economic challenges.

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Pentagon plans covert spy ring for economic war on China, report says

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The US Department of War (Pentagon) is reportedly planning to establish an extensive network of deep-cover agents to wage economic warfare against China and other adversaries of the US.

According to a report by The Washington Post citing six sources familiar with the initiative, the plan has not yet been put into effect. The newspaper reported that the initiative remains at the planning stage. The Pentagon, however, denies that any such initiative exists.

The report said the operatives would pose as entrepreneurs or private sector employees while concealing their ties to the US government. The network’s mission would be to gather economic intelligence and counter China.

The programme is led by Tom Rakusa, who spent 39 years at the CIA. Rakusa serves as a senior adviser to Deputy Secretary of Defence Steve Feinberg.

The proposed spy network is seen as part of a broader policy by the Donald Trump administration to sharpen economic competition with other countries.

The US is already resorting to tariffs, export controls, and investment in strategic sectors, alongside expanding its economic intelligence gathering.

According to The Washington Post, the new initiative demonstrates the Pentagon’s growing influence under the Trump administration. The department is currently seeking a record budget of $1.5 trillion.

Trade war flares up again with Trump’s return to the White House

The trade friction between the US and China flared up again following Donald Trump’s return to the White House. In April 2025, Washington raised tariffs on Chinese goods to as much as 145%, and Beijing retaliated with tariffs of up to 125%.

In May, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described China as the primary geopolitical challenge facing Washington. Rubio said that to avoid war, the two sides needed to manage their conflict of interests.

In July, Chinese expert Zheng Yongnian did not simply warn that underestimating the US could prove to be a “fatal mistake”; he stated it explicitly.

According to Zheng’s assessment, the US maintains its primacy through the role of the dollar, its military superiority, and its technological advantages.

Even so, the two sides agreed in June to declare a truce and lower tariffs. In autumn 2026, the US and China extended their trade truce until 10 January 2027.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the extension would give the parties more time to discuss economic issues.

Trade deals do not eliminate the strategic contradictions between the two countries. Financial Times columnist Rana Foroohar likened the race between the two nations for commercial, technological, and geopolitical influence to the 19th-century “Great Game” between the Russian and British empires.

Foroohar cited China’s standing in shipbuilding and commercial maritime transport, as well as its expanding footprint in overseas ports, among its key advantages.

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Japan plans curbs on short-term home sales to cool urban prices

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Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) plans to restrict short-term property trading to rein in surging home prices in major urban centres, particularly Tokyo.

Led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, the party aims to make support for working households a core priority ahead of local elections scheduled for April next year.

The LDP’s research commission on housing and land policy met on Wednesday to discuss the issue.

According to a report by the Nikkei Asia newspaper, Commission Chair and LDP lawmaker Midori Matsushima said at the opening of the meeting: “Prices of newly built condominiums across Tokyo’s 23 wards have doubled over the past decade. We must work on measures ensuring that people who wish to live in these homes can actually afford to buy them.”

Homeownership in the capital has become virtually unattainable for broad segments of the population. According to data from the Real Estate Economic Institute, the average sale price of a newly built condominium in Tokyo’s 23 wards rose %18.5 in fiscal 2025 compared with the previous year, reaching 137.84 million yen (around $872,000).

Meanwhile, statistics from the Ministry of Labour show that the average annual income of a full-time worker in the capital remained at 6.78 million yen in fiscal 2025. This widening gap between incomes and residential property prices is directly shaping political priorities.

During its campaign for the House of Representatives election in February, the LDP pledged to curb speculative transactions across metropolitan Tokyo and other regions. Earlier this month, a party project team focused on policies concerning foreign nationals also submitted a recommendation urging the government to introduce immediate tax measures against rising home prices.

Under current legislation, profits realized from properties sold within five years of acquisition are classified as “short-term capital gains”. These returns face a tax rate approaching %40, including income tax and local inhabitant tax.

Although this rate is twice the approximately %20 levied as “long-term capital gains” tax on properties held for more than five years, several party members argue it remains insufficient to deter speculation. Calls to tighten the framework may be considered as part of the annual tax reform package to be drafted in December alongside the LDP’s coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party.

The ruling bloc wants to present concrete housing pledges to voters heading to the polls in April across numerous urban centres, including 22 of Tokyo’s wards where local assembly terms expire.

“We need to support families with children, who are typically at the stage of purchasing a home,” a senior LDP official said.

Opposition parties are also preparing alternative proposals that target not only prospective homebuyers, but also residents forced into the rental market by high property prices and now affected by escalating rents.

Tax steps take precedence over limits on foreign buyers

Several countries seeking answers to housing affordability pressures have imposed direct restrictions on foreign purchasers. In South Korea, real estate policies played a major part in the declining public approval ratings of President Lee Jae Myung.

In August 2025, authorities in Seoul introduced an approval requirement for foreign nationals buying homes in the capital and adjacent areas, while also mandating that buyers reside in the properties for at least two years.

Canada and Australia have enacted temporary bans on foreign residential purchases, while Singapore levies a %60 additional stamp duty on foreign buyers.

The role of overseas investors in Japan’s property market also drew debate during the February election. However, restrictions aimed directly at foreign nationals are viewed as potentially conflicting with international trade and services agreements.

Consequently, rather than imposing restrictions based on the nationality of buyers, the government is discussing tax measures aimed at speculative real estate deals, such as rapid resales.

Fears that sharp market measures could shake regional banks

Concerns have also surfaced that aggressive steps to force down prices could harm the wider national economy.

A senior LDP tax official cautioned that a steep drop in land prices could weaken local financial institutions, warning: “We must consider the impact on regional banks.”

The real estate sector accounts for roughly %18 of total lending by Japanese banks. This proportion sits well above the %10 level recorded during Japan’s bubble economy of the mid-to-late 1980s.

At certain regional banks, property lending accounts for nearly half of total loan portfolios.

According to March 2025 data from the Financial Services Agency, approximately one-quarter of all loans extended by regional banks to the real estate sector are concentrated directly in Tokyo’s five central wards.

Buoyant asset valuations, supported in part by rising stock indices, have underpinned strong public approval for the Takaichi administration. Observers note that property interventions designed to cool the market could drag down equity prices and weaken the government’s standing.

A senior official on the LDP research commission stressed that decision-makers must act with caution regarding the scope and timing of any measures intended to bring price increases under control.

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South Korea plans $120B spend on eight US nuclear power plants

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South Korea will spend $120 billion to construct eight nuclear power plants in the US under an agreement that provides for $350 billion in investments in exchange for lower tariffs.

The South Korean government also announced that Seoul and Washington will begin examining a liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Alaska comprising a large-scale pipeline to transport natural gas from the north of the state to the south, alongside the construction of an LNG terminal for exports overseas.

Seoul stated that a decision regarding the LNG project will be made following a commercial feasibility study. However, US President Donald Trump said that South Korea would invest $54 billion in the project, pointing to an apparent lack of full coordination between the two sides on the matter.

Trade and Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan said in a statement: “This announcement opens a new horizon of cooperation where the two countries join forces to develop joint commercial ventures in strategic areas directly linked to economic security and future sectors such as artificial intelligence, nuclear energy, and LNG.”

“We will adhere to the principle of prioritising national interests and investing solely in commercially viable projects,” Kim said.

Speaking at the White House, Trump characterised South Korea’s plans as “one of the largest energy infrastructure investments in American history”.

The announcement followed a meeting between Trump and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung roughly one year ago at the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting held in South Korea, where they agreed on the creation of a $350 billion investment fund.

Under that agreement, $150 billion was allocated to the shipbuilding sector and $200 billion to other sectors. In return, the US announced it would reduce tariffs imposed on goods imported from South Korea from 25% to 15%.

Under the nuclear power project, South Korea’s state-controlled utility will build two plants in the US, while Pennsylvania-based Westinghouse Electric will construct six plants.

According to the South Korean government, this will mark the first instance in which a foreign country builds its own nuclear power plants in the US.

South Korean firms are also evaluating the possibility of acquiring a stake in Westinghouse as part of negotiations over sharing profits generated by the project.

South Korea additionally announced that it will build a $22.3 billion natural gas-fired power plant in Texas with a capacity of 6,472 megawatts.

The facility will be designed to supply electricity directly to nearby data centres. The project’s first phase is targeted to begin commercial operations in 2029, with full-capacity operations slated for 2032.

Seoul also disclosed that it had agreed to allow the US to receive 50% of the profits generated by the projects until South Korea recoups all of its investments.

After South Korea fully recovers its total investment amount, 90% of the profits will go to the US.

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