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Iran and Pakistan missile firings: Tit-for-tat or diplomacy failure

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Pakistan did not remain silent over Iran’s brazen missile attack on an alleged militant group inside the country’s Balochistan region as it fired back against what it had claimed as rebel-held sites in Iranian territory. The exchange of fires between the two neighbors marked an explosive new development in growing unrest in the Middle East since the outbreak of deadly war in Gaza, the new wave of clashes in Yemen and now toward South Asia.

It was Iran which fired first on Tuesday and Pakistan responded on Thursday and Islamabad called it a clear violation of its national territory. Both sides claimed that they had targeted hideouts of the separatist Baloch militants but the reports speak otherwise and the civilians were the victims on both sides. Iranian state media reported the death toll from Pakistan’s missile attack in southeastern Sistan-Baluchistan region has reached to ten, including three women and four children. Three civilians, including two children were also killed in Iran’s attack on Pakistani soil.

The attack, of course, further deteriorated the ties between the two nuclear weapons neighbors which indeed is not in their interest at all. Both Iran and Pakistan apparently have a clear interest in finding a ceiling for this conflict and pathway toward de-escalation. At the same time, it is not simply possible as Iran is angrier now because the diplomacy approach failed to convince Islamabad not to retaliate.

China works to ease tensions between Iran and Pakistan

However, the mediation process has been scrambled, especially by China which has a very good tie with both the countries.

China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Mao Ming expressed her country’s willingness to play a constructive role in easing tensions between Iran and Pakistan

“China has always advocated that relations between countries should be handled in accordance with the purposes and principles of the United Nations Charter and international law, and that the sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of all countries should be effectively respected and maintained,” Mao stated.

She furthered: “Iran and Pakistan are close neighbors, friendly countries to China, and countries with important influence. China sincerely hopes that both sides can maintain calm and restraint and avoid escalating tensions. If needed, we are also willing to play a constructive role in alleviating the situation.”

Meanwhile, Afghanistan, the closest neighbor to both Iran and Pakistan had deemed the recent violence between Iran and Pakistan alarming, and called on the two neighboring countries to exercise restraint.

“In light of the region’s newfound peace and stability after protracted imposed wars and instability, both sides should direct efforts towards further strengthening regional stability and resolving disputes through diplomatic channels and dialogue,” Taliban Foreign Ministry Spokesman Abdul Qahar Balkhi said.

Iran’s enemy has spoken of course negatively

However, US President Joe Biden said that the recent clashes between Iran and Pakistan indicate Iran’s lack of popularity in the region.

Youth activists of Muslim Talba Mahaz (MTM) holding a banner shout slogans during a protest against Iranian air strike, in Islamabad on January 18, 2024. AFP

“As you can see, Iran is not particularly well-liked in the region, and where that goes, we’re working on now. I don’t know where that goes,” Biden said.

But US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller urged restraint among all parties amid escalating tensions between Iran and Pakistan, and lauded Pakistan’s emphasis on cooperative relations with its neighbors.

Attacking Pakistan was a mistake – diplomacy wins

An Iranian war expert said that Pakistan has been under attack for several years, and there was a wave of attacks on bordering sides against Pakistani soldiers, but Islamabad didn’t attack directly any country like Iran did. “I am not blaming Iran, but carrying out a missile attack inside Pakistan was not a right decision,” he told Harici.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, he said that Iran is already alone in the region, attacking Pakistan is making Iran more peril to terrorist attacks by different names and agenda. “We are already at war with Israel, Syria, Iraq, and now with Pakistan. We also fought with the Taliban in bordering areas. So, these are not good signs. We need friends not more enemies,” he added.

We need to think twice before taking any action, he said, adding that Iran should not lose its way with recent attacks in Kerman. “Iran should understand that the extremist groups like Islamic State (IS), who claimed responsibility for Kerman twin bombings, and Baloch militant groups, have no specific hideouts as they are just brain-made by the intelligence agencies of countries,” he added.

He said that Pakistan claimed it targeted militant sides, but the casualties all were civilians, including children and similarly to Iran’s claim attacking Pakistan. “My advice to the government of Iran is that do not retaliate again and the diplomacy channel must work to resolve the issue,” he added.

Pakistan convenes emergency security meeting  

Following a deadly airstrike exchanged between Islamabad and Tehran, the government of Pakistan has decided to hold an emergency meeting with military and intelligence chiefs on Friday. As of now, the meeting has not been held, however the national security committee meeting comes as both sides are apparently trying to reduce the tension. It has been reported that the Pakistani Chief of Army Staff and the head of Intelligence services are expected to attend the meeting.

Meanwhile, Pakistan foreign ministry in a statement described Iran as a brotherly country, stating that the people of Pakistan have great respect and affection for the Iranian people. “We have always emphasized dialogue and cooperation in confronting common challenges, including the menace of terrorism, and will continue to endeavor to find joint solutions,” the statement reads.

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Controversial military operations and ethnic dynamics in Pakistan’s fight against terrorism

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In a recent high-level meeting, the federal government of Pakistan announced its intention to launch a new military operation against terrorist organizations. This decision is aimed at eradicating militancy under the banner of Azm-i-Istehkam. Surprisingly, the military leadership has remained silent on this proposed operation, leaving the advocacy to political figures, notably Defense Minister Khawaja Asif of the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N).

The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), a significant coalition partner in the federal government, has maintained a conspicuous silence on the matter. Meanwhile, despite the approval from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur, factions within Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and the Sunni Ittehad Council have openly opposed the operation. This divergence in political opinion highlights the complex dynamics at play in Pakistan’s approach to counter-terrorism.

The opposition from various regional and ethnic parties, including the Pashtun Protection Movement (PTM), Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP), and the Awami National Party (ANP), stems from deep-seated concerns about the operation’s focus and its implications. Historically, PTI and PkMAP have not been staunchly anti-Taliban. PTI’s leader, Imran Khan, has consistently opposed military actions against Taliban militants, advocating instead for dialogue. Similarly, PkMAP leader Mehmood Khan Achakzai, while ostensibly opposing terrorism, is perceived to have friendly relations with the Taliban, as evidenced by the relative safety of his party members from Taliban attacks.

Significant religious-political entities have complex stances on militancy in Pakistan

The relative safety of certain political groups, like PTM and the National Democratic Movement, from Taliban violence raises questions. Critics argue that this perceived immunity could suggest covert alliances or understandings, casting doubt on the motivations behind their opposition to the military operation.

Jamiat Ulama-e-Islam (JUI-F) and Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), both significant religious-political entities, have complex stances on militancy. JUI-F’s position has been ambiguous since the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. In contrast, JI, having reaped substantial benefits from the Afghan war, now finds itself sidelined and is striving to reassert its relevance by attempting to align with nationalist sentiments.

The media and sections of the government, particularly those influenced by Punjabi and Urdu-speaking elites, have often portrayed the Taliban as predominantly Pashtun. This narrative has led to the proposed military operation being focused on Pashtun-majority areas, such as Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Defense Minister Khawaja Asif’s statement that the operation will target these regions reinforces this perception.

Pashtun-dominated regions reject the notion that terrorism is a Pashtun phenomenon

However, leaders from Pashtun-dominated regions, like Khan Muhammad Wazir of the ANP, reject the notion that terrorism is a Pashtun phenomenon. Wazir points to the involvement of non-Pashtun militants in numerous terror attacks across Pakistan. He highlights the role of Punjabi militants in groups like the Punjabi Taliban, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, and Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, who have orchestrated some of the deadliest attacks in recent years. Wazir’s argument underscores the ethnic diversity of militant groups in Pakistan, challenging the stereotype of the Pashtun terrorist.

Wazir’s emotional plea for an operation starting in Punjab, rather than Pashtun areas, aims to shift the focus to the diverse origins of militancy. He names several key figures from Punjab involved in terrorist activities, such as Tariq Lahori of Daesh and Maulana Qasmi of Jamaat-ul-Ahrar. By highlighting these figures, Wazir seeks to demonstrate that terrorism in Pakistan is not confined to any single ethnic group.

Doubt on the narration of the proposed military operation “Azm-i-Istekham”

The insistence on a military operation in Pashtun regions, driven by a media narrative dominated by Punjabi and Urdu-speaking elites, risks alienating the Pashtun community. Wazir’s call for international intervention by entities like China, the United States, Russia, the United Nations, and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) underscores the severity of this perceived ethnic targeting. If the government and media continue to frame terrorism as a predominantly Pashtun issue, it may lead to increased ethnic tensions and further marginalize the Pashtun population.

The proposed military operation “Azm-i-Istehkam” and the political dynamics surrounding it reveal deep-seated ethnic and regional tensions within Pakistan. While the operation aims to eradicate terrorism, its focus on Pashtun areas risks reinforcing harmful stereotypes and overlooking the broader ethnic diversity of militant groups. A more equitable approach, recognizing the involvement of non-Pashtun militants and addressing the root causes of militancy across all regions, is crucial for fostering national unity and effectively combating terrorism. Only through such an inclusive strategy can Pakistan hope to achieve lasting peace and stability.

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Huawei Harmony aims to end China’s reliance on Windows and Android

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While Chinese tech giant Huawei’s recent smartphone launches have been closely watched for signs of progress in China’s chip supply chain, the company has also developed expertise in sectors vital to Beijing’s vision of technological self-sufficiency, from operating systems to car software.

Chinese President Xi Jinping told the CPC Politburo last year that China must fight hard to localise operating systems and other technologies “as soon as possible” as the US restricts exports of advanced chips and other components.

OpenHarmony, developed by Huawei, is widely promoted in China as the “national operating system”.

“This strategic move is likely to erode the market share of Western operating systems such as Android and Windows in China as local products gain traction,” Sunny Cheung, an associate fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, a US defence policy group, told Reuters.

In the first quarter of 2024, Huawei’s own version of the HarmonyOS operating system overtook Apple’s iOS to become the second best-selling mobile operating system in China after Android, according to research firm Counterpoint. It has not yet been released on smartphones outside China.

“Harmony has created a strong core operating system for the future of China’s devices,” Richard Yu, president of Huawei’s consumer business group, said at the opening of a developer conference last week.

Self-sufficiency

Huawei first introduced Harmony in August 2019, three months after Washington imposed trade restrictions over alleged security concerns. Huawei denies that its equipment poses a risk.

Since then, China has stepped up its self-sufficiency efforts, pulling out of the main code-sharing centre Github and supporting a local version, Gitee.

China banned the use of Windows on government computers in 2014 and now uses mostly Linux-based operating systems.

Microsoft derives only 1.5 per cent of its revenue from China, its chief executive said this month.

Originally built on an open-source Android system, Huawei this year released the first “pure” version of HarmonyOS, which no longer supports Android-based apps, further separating China’s app ecosystem from the rest of the world.

Huawei said in its 2023 annual report that OpenHarmony was the fastest-growing open source operating system for smart devices last year, with more than 70 organisations contributing to it and more than 460 hardware and software products produced in the financial, education, aerospace and industrial sectors.

Visited by Reuters, Charlie Cheng, deputy director of the Harmony Ecosystem Innovation Centre, said the aim of making it open-source was to replicate Android’s success in eliminating licensing costs for users and provide companies with a customisable springboard for their own products.

“Harmony will definitely become a mainstream operating system and give the world a new choice of operating systems besides iOS and Android,” he said.

Google, Apple and Microsoft did not respond to requests for comment.

China’s previous efforts to build large open source projects have struggled to gain traction among developers, but Huawei’s growing smartphone market share and extra work to develop a broader ecosystem gives Harmony an edge, analysts said.

Huawei’s Yu said this month that more than 900 million devices, including smartphones, watches and car systems, were running HarmonyOS and that 2.4 million developers were coding in the ecosystem.

“OpenHarmony will need more time and iterations for these developers to feel more confident about working with OpenHarmony,” Emma Xu, an analyst at research firm Canalys, told Reuters, adding: “But the reputation, behaviour and trust that HarmonyOS has achieved will certainly have a positive impact.”

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Taliban attends Doha meeting this time

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All set for the 3rd round of UN-initiated Doha conference on Afghanistan situation. The Taliban delegations and representatives from foreign countries will attend the two-day conference in the capital city of Qatar from June 30 and first of July 2024. The Afghan civil society members are also invited. But before we deliver on expectation from this conference, here we take a glance at the second round of Doha conference which was held in February 2024.

Secretary-General Amina J. Mohammed visited Afghanistan in January 2023. The visit had come at a time when the Taliban banned women from going to workplaces and girls from going to schools. Women, working for NGOs and even UN offices, were banned from attending office. Following her trip to Afghanistan at that time, Mohammed went to Kandahar province, the place where the Taliban supreme leader is residing, and met with the senior Taliban officials including Yusuf Wafa, the Taliban provincial governor.

After concluding her trip, Mohammed emphasized the need for a broad political approach in dealing with the Taliban and called on the Taliban to observe women’s rights including their rights to education and work.

In May 2023, the UN decided to arrange a broad-based meeting to discuss Afghanistan. UN Secretary-General Atonio Guterres also traveled to Doha and in a press briefing he called for the formation of an inclusive government and observation of women’s rights in Afghanistan.

The second Doha conference was held on May 1 and 2 and all the discussions were held behind doors. The meeting included envoys from 21 countries including US, Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, Japan, India, Indonesia, UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UK, France, Germany, Norway and Central Asian states such as Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan.  Representatives from the EU and Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) also participated in the conference. Four members of Afghan civil society were also in attendance, and they called for reopening girl’s schools and formation of such a government which is acceptable for all.

Taliban didn’t accept UN invitation for the second Doha Conference

The UN has said that they didn’t invite the Taliban in the first round of the conference, but they sent an invitation to the Taliban for the second Doha conference, in which the Talian denied their participation.

UN Secretary-General Atonio Guterres said that they didn’t invite the Taliban in the first round of the conference, but they sent an invitation to the Taliban for the second Doha conference.

Guterres said that it was not the right time to meet with the Taliban. Similarly other groups of the Afghan segment including civil society members, women rights activists, and the majority of foreign countries’ representatives were not invited in the first conference.

However, in the second round of talks, foreign representatives held four sessions in the two-day conference, where they discussed human rights issues, including women, and girls’ rights, inclusive governance, counterterrorism, and topics related to drug trafficking.

The aim behind these sessions was to achieve a collective view and develop an international approach regarding Afghanistan, but these meetings, according to Guterres, were not meant for recognition of the Taliban.

Taliban agreed to attend third Doha conference

The Taliban has shown green signal to attend the upcoming third Doha conference. The Taliban delegation has been invited to participate in the Doha meeting, Taliban Foreign Minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi said, adding that Taliban is looking to create a positive relation with the West, including the US, EU, and the regional countries.

Muttaqi said that the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has been officially invited and “this invitation is a green signal for the growing possibility of recognition of the Taliban government by the international community”.

“We are seeking positive relations with EU countries, the US and our neighbors and the regional countries,” he added.

Taliban Foreign Minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi said that Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has been officially invited to Doha Conference, and this invitation is a green signal for the growing possibility of recognition of the Taliban government by the international community. 

Muttaqi’s statement came when the international community still persisted in its demand and expressed concern about the lack of women’s and girl’s access to basic rights including education and participation of them in the political landscape of the country.

The third round of the meeting will be chaired by Rosemary DiCarlo, the United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs and DiCarlo is a US citizen and has been working in this post since 2018.

DiCarlo has visited Afghanistan two times and her first visit was in December 2021 just four months after US forces withdrawal and the collapse of the Republic System backed by the US in the past 20 years.

During her meeting, she held talks with key Taliban leaders, including Abdul Kabir, the Taliban’s deputy prime minister and she emphasized on the need for continued efforts to create an inclusive system in Afghanistan.

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