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MIDDLE EAST

Iran nuclear deal awaits political decision

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Diplomats have engaged in Iran talks in Vienna this week with sending conflicting messages on progress to reach agreement over reviving the 2015 deal. The way the messages were convened, were not so promising at the same time not so gloomy. It was a message of hope at some point, but since the talks have numerous aspects and despite significant progress in the past, had time and again faced a sudden deadlock.

Without doubt, there was some progress in the process. Iranian top advisors to the nuclear negotiating team illuminated that there were no differences between them and Europe or Russia but put the chance of any possible agreement was 50-50 percent.

This simply explains the gravity of the talks which Iran and US still need to elucidate because the remaining issues are now between the two capitals.

While Russia’s ambassador Mikahil Ulyanov expressed optimism, right the way US envoy Rob Malley painted a gloomy picture of the talks, expressing disappointment. Meanwhile Iran urged Washington to be flexible and have some seriousness in the process.

After six months of negotiations that ended in an anonymous way, Iran and US officials have indirectly engaged in talks to salvage the 2015 pact. The negotiations to revive the deal began in April 2021, before coming to standstill in March.

The trust deficit

Relations between Iran and the US have never been cordial and the US is using every tool to force Tehran to do what Washington says. Despite severe sanctions, the US had signed an agreement with Israel, the most arch-enemy of Iran, where both the countries pledged to use all elements of national power to ensure that Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon. The same promises were made with Saudi Arabia, but Iran doesn’t consider the Kingdom as a hostile nation compared to Israel.

Even during the COVID-19 pandemic, the US did not lift its sanctions affecting medicine, rather threatened Iran that epidemic won’t save it from sanctions. In a blatant move, it has blacklisted companies based in the UAE, three in China, three in Hong Kong and one in South Africa for trade in Iran’s petrochemicals and Iran considered these pressures as a crime against humanity.

Iran had called for a good deal all the time. The country’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has already issued a religious decree on prohibition of using nuclear weapons, assuring that nuclear arms have no place in Iran’s doctrine and are against its policy and beliefs. Iran’s chief negotiator, Ali Bagheri Kani has left Vienna and will fly back to Tehran for political consultations, where Khamenei would have the final say on any deal. It is not clear how long the political consultations over the draft text would last, because Washington also needs to have its final say.

Iran wants deal to help remove sanctions

Iran, which is more interested in the deal as it sees it as the final approach to get rid of current sanction, has expressed seriousness in clenching a strong and double agreement, but not at all cost. Iran is exercising extreme caution in dealing with the US and seeking guarantees. The mistrust is due former President Donald Trump’s one-sided withdrawal from Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal in 2018. This was the moment when trust-deficit reached its boiling point.

One of the sticking point is that how US would deal with Iran’s request to remove Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from its “Foreign Terrorist Organizations” list, as one of the key demands by Iranian officials.

MIDDLE EAST

Israel resumes massacre in Gaza after US green light

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After failing to impose its terms on Hamas, Israel, in violation of the ceasefire agreement, launched an intense aerial assault on Gaza. With the approval of the US, the attacks in the early morning resulted in the deaths of Gazan children in their sleep.

Israel announced the end of the ceasefire and began conducting heavy airstrikes in the Gaza Strip. Tent camps where displaced Palestinians had sought refuge were also bombed, causing fires.

In a few hours, the number of people killed in the Israeli attacks exceeded 205, and the number of injured surpassed 300. According to the Gaza Health Ministry, 113 of the victims were killed in the southern part of the region. Many families were completely wiped out, and children were killed in their sleep. Images of dead babies emerged from hospitals.

The office of Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu stated in a post on the social media platform X that the Israeli army was striking Hamas targets in Gaza. The statement cited Hamas’s “continued refusal to release hostages” and “Trump’s Middle East Representative Steve Witkoff turning down all proposals offered by mediators” as the reasons for the attacks.

The statement signaled that Israel would expand its attacks.

Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz also claimed that they had relaunched the attacks because Hamas refused to release the Israeli captives. Katz said, “If Hamas does not release all the captives, the gates of hell will open in Gaza.” Katz stated that they would continue the attacks until they achieved their goals.

The Israeli army also announced that the order to attack was given by Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz. The army emphasized that it would continue the airstrikes “as long as necessary” and was ready to move the surprise attack beyond the air operation if ordered.

Chief of General Staff Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir is managing the attacks from the army headquarters together with Shin-Bet Director Ronen Bar.

US support for Israel, which broke the ceasefire and began targeting civilians again with attacks on Gaza, was not delayed. The White House announced that Israel had consulted with the US regarding the attacks.

Speaking to Fox News, White House Spokesperson Karoline Leavitt, using the expression “Doomsday will break out,” stated that Trump was not afraid to support Israel.

In a written statement from Hamas, it was stated that the Israeli government had broken the ceasefire agreement that came into effect on January 19 and had declared war on the Gaza Strip.

The statement reminded that the Palestinian people were subjected to a barbaric war as well as systematic starvation policies, and added, “We hold the criminal Netanyahu and the Zionist Nazi occupiers responsible for the consequences of the treacherous attacks against Gaza and the defenseless Palestinian people.”

The statement said, “Netanyahu and his radical government, by deciding to undermine the ceasefire agreement, are endangering the lives of the captives in the Gaza Strip and dragging their fate into uncertainty. We call on the mediators to hold Netanyahu and the Zionist occupier responsible for undermining the ceasefire.”

In the statement, Arab countries and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) were called upon to fulfill their responsibilities and stand by the Palestinian people and break the blockade imposed on the Gaza Strip, and the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) was called upon to convene urgently.

In its statement, Hamas requested that the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip continue and that Israeli forces withdraw, in accordance with UNSC Resolution 2735.

The first phase of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which came into effect in January, involved Israel releasing Palestinian prisoners in exchange for the release of some of the Israeli hostages. In the second phase, which was supposed to begin after the completion of the first phase, Israel was expected to withdraw completely from Gaza, and the remaining hostages held by Hamas were to be released gradually.

However, if the second phase were to begin and Israel were to withdraw its soldiers from Gaza, Netanyahu’s government was likely to collapse. Unwilling to take this risk, Netanyahu tried to extend the first phase and rescue the Israeli hostages by pressuring Hamas together with the mediators, instead of moving on to the second phase of the agreement. However, Hamas did not accept this and demanded that the agreement be implemented in full.

Meanwhile, Israel’s attack move came after Prime Minister Netanyahu removed Ronen Bar, the head of the Shin-Bet internal intelligence organization, and David Barnea, the director of the Mossad foreign intelligence service, from the country’s negotiation team. Netanyahu argued that he made these changes because the intelligence officials were acting “too softly” in the negotiations.

There is a tension between Israel’s security institutions and the Netanyahu government, the roots of which date back to before the October 7 raid. Due to this tension, which has been increasing since October 7, the previous Chief of General Staff Herzi Halevi resigned earlier this month. Shin-Bet Director Ronen Bar was fired by Netanyahu. Reactions from the opposition that Netanyahu was trying to fire Bar for personal reasons increased calls for street protests. With this attack move, Netanyahu has also set a barrier to the major protests planned for tomorrow.

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MIDDLE EAST

Türkiye to double electricity exports to Iraq, reaching 600 MW

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Türkiye is set to double its electricity exports to Iraq, raising the capacity to 600 megawatts. As summer approaches, the Baghdad administration is seeking alternative energy sources to replace those from Iran, which is currently under US sanctions.

The Iraqi Ministry of Electricity announced on Sunday that “All necessary logistical and infrastructure preparations have been completed to increase the electricity supply capacity via the Iraq-Türkiye interconnection line to 600 megawatts.”

During a visit to Iraq, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Alparslan Bayraktar met with various officials, including Iraqi Minister of Electricity Ziyad Ali Fadel. The Iraqi Ministry of Electricity stated that Bayraktar confirmed the electricity supply would increase “in the coming months.”

The National reported that in July of last year, Baghdad and Ankara inaugurated the electricity line, which currently supplies 300 MW of electricity to Iraq.

Under the “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran initiated by US President Donald Trump, Washington revoked the waiver last week that permitted Iraq to import energy from Iran.

Despite being the second-largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Iraq struggles to meet its electricity demand due to decades of war, mismanagement, and corruption. Former Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Kazimi said in 2020 that the country had spent at least $60 billion on the electricity sector since the US-led invasion in 2003.

Baghdad sources approximately one-third of its electricity from Iran. Iraq buys 50 million cubic meters of natural gas and 500 megawatts of electricity daily from Iran. Iraqi officials have stated that US sanctions will only impact electricity imports.

Since 2018, Washington has granted waivers allowing Iraq to import energy from Iran for specific periods, typically ranging from 45 to 120 days. However, the US seeks to reduce Iraq’s reliance on Iran and continues to apply pressure to achieve this.

Iraq has taken steps in recent years to develop its natural gas resources and address the deficit in the electricity sector. According to the Iraqi Ministry of Oil, the country’s natural gas reserves are approximately 3.714 billion cubic meters.

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MIDDLE EAST

New Syrian constitution draft sparks controversy over Islamic law

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Ahmed Shara, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) administration in Syria, signed a declaration outlining the basic provisions of the interim constitution. The de facto administration in northern Syria, led by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDG) which signed an agreement with HTS earlier this week, rejected the articles in the draft constitution, stating that they are “identical to the laws on which the Ba’ath regime is based.”

In a statement made on behalf of the de facto administration, which calls itself the “Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria” under the leadership of the SDG, it was stated, “Months after the fall of the Ba’ath regime and despite the joy of the Syrian people who rebelled against this regime and its oppressive practices, a ‘Draft Constitution’ declaration was published in Damascus.”

The statement claimed that the articles in the draft constitution are “identical to the laws on which the Ba’ath regime is based” and are “far from the reality and diversity of Syria.”

It was stated that the draft constitution excludes the main components of Syria’s national structure, including Kurds, Arabs, Assyrians, and other ethnic and religious groups, and that they reject and condemn the draft in its current form.

“This so-called constitutional framework does not reflect the demands of the Syrian people and its various communities,” the statement said. “The Syrian people revolted against such practices, and a return to this outdated approach will further deepen the nation’s wounds.”

The statement continued: “The correct constitution that should be in place is one prepared and agreed upon by all communities. We hope that some exclusive, narrow-minded views and thoughts do not take us back to square one. Only in this way can it serve as the foundation for a sustainable democratic future in Syria.”

An agreement was reached between the HTS administration and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDG) on Monday, March 10. The agreement, signed between Ahmed Shara, the leader of the HTS administration, and Mazlum Abdi, the leader of the SDG, envisioned the integration of the SDG into Syrian state institutions.

Yesterday, three days after the agreement with the SDG, Shara signed a 53-article declaration outlining the basic provisions of the interim constitution. According to the declaration, the constitution includes the article, “The religion of the President is Islam, and Islamic law (fiqh) is the main source of legislation.”

The constitution, which envisages a five-year transition period, grants Shara, who is declared the “interim President,” executive power, the authority to appoint one-third of the legislative body, and the power to appoint judges to the constitutional court. Shara will also have the power to declare a state of emergency. Additionally, all political party activities in the country are suspended until the political parties law comes into effect.

According to Anadolu Agency, the highlights of the interim constitutional declaration are as follows:

– Article 1: The Syrian Arab Republic is a fully independent and sovereign state. Its geographical and political unity is indivisible, and no part of it can be relinquished.

– Article 2: The religion of the President is Islam, and Islamic law (fiqh) is the main source of legislation. Freedom of belief is guaranteed. The state respects all heavenly religions and guarantees freedom of worship. However, this freedom must not violate public order.

– Article 6: All citizens have equal rights and obligations before the law. Discrimination based on race, religion, gender, or lineage is prohibited.

– Article 7: The personal status of religious communities is protected and applied in accordance with their beliefs and Sharia. It is regulated within the framework of existing laws.

– Article 8: The state regulates the national economy based on social justice, free competition, and the prevention of monopolies. It supports production sectors, encourages investment, and protects investors to strengthen sustainable development.

– Article 13: The state guarantees freedom of expression, thought, press, publication, and media. These rights are regulated by law to protect public order and respect the rights of others.

– Article 14: The state recognizes the right to political participation and the freedom to form parties based on national foundations. A commission will be formed to prepare the party law, and party activities will be suspended until this law comes into effect.

– Article 15: The state commits to protecting human rights and fundamental freedoms in accordance with international conventions and humanitarian norms.

– Article 16: The state protects the family as the foundation of society and commits to supporting motherhood and childhood.

– Article 17: The state commits to protecting the social status and active role of women and protecting them from all forms of violence and discrimination.

– Article 18: The state commits to protecting children from abuse and mistreatment and ensuring their access to education and health services.

– Article 20: The People’s Assembly is appointed by the President and performs legislative duties until a permanent constitution is adopted and new parliamentary elections are held.

– Article 27: The President is the head of state, the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, and the highest authority responsible for the administration of the country.

– Article 35: The judiciary is independent. Judges are bound only by law and their conscience.

– Article 36: No crime or punishment can be applied without a legal regulation. Everyone is presumed innocent until proven guilty. Extraordinary courts cannot be established.

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