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Iran nuclear deal awaits political decision

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Diplomats have engaged in Iran talks in Vienna this week with sending conflicting messages on progress to reach agreement over reviving the 2015 deal. The way the messages were convened, were not so promising at the same time not so gloomy. It was a message of hope at some point, but since the talks have numerous aspects and despite significant progress in the past, had time and again faced a sudden deadlock.

Without doubt, there was some progress in the process. Iranian top advisors to the nuclear negotiating team illuminated that there were no differences between them and Europe or Russia but put the chance of any possible agreement was 50-50 percent.

This simply explains the gravity of the talks which Iran and US still need to elucidate because the remaining issues are now between the two capitals.

While Russia’s ambassador Mikahil Ulyanov expressed optimism, right the way US envoy Rob Malley painted a gloomy picture of the talks, expressing disappointment. Meanwhile Iran urged Washington to be flexible and have some seriousness in the process.

After six months of negotiations that ended in an anonymous way, Iran and US officials have indirectly engaged in talks to salvage the 2015 pact. The negotiations to revive the deal began in April 2021, before coming to standstill in March.

The trust deficit

Relations between Iran and the US have never been cordial and the US is using every tool to force Tehran to do what Washington says. Despite severe sanctions, the US had signed an agreement with Israel, the most arch-enemy of Iran, where both the countries pledged to use all elements of national power to ensure that Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon. The same promises were made with Saudi Arabia, but Iran doesn’t consider the Kingdom as a hostile nation compared to Israel.

Even during the COVID-19 pandemic, the US did not lift its sanctions affecting medicine, rather threatened Iran that epidemic won’t save it from sanctions. In a blatant move, it has blacklisted companies based in the UAE, three in China, three in Hong Kong and one in South Africa for trade in Iran’s petrochemicals and Iran considered these pressures as a crime against humanity.

Iran had called for a good deal all the time. The country’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has already issued a religious decree on prohibition of using nuclear weapons, assuring that nuclear arms have no place in Iran’s doctrine and are against its policy and beliefs. Iran’s chief negotiator, Ali Bagheri Kani has left Vienna and will fly back to Tehran for political consultations, where Khamenei would have the final say on any deal. It is not clear how long the political consultations over the draft text would last, because Washington also needs to have its final say.

Iran wants deal to help remove sanctions

Iran, which is more interested in the deal as it sees it as the final approach to get rid of current sanction, has expressed seriousness in clenching a strong and double agreement, but not at all cost. Iran is exercising extreme caution in dealing with the US and seeking guarantees. The mistrust is due former President Donald Trump’s one-sided withdrawal from Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal in 2018. This was the moment when trust-deficit reached its boiling point.

One of the sticking point is that how US would deal with Iran’s request to remove Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from its “Foreign Terrorist Organizations” list, as one of the key demands by Iranian officials.

MIDDLE EAST

‘Turkey-Syria negotiations to be held in Baghdad’

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The Syrian daily al-Watan reports that the first round of talks between Syria and Turkey to normalise bilateral relations will take place in Baghdad.

Turkish and Syrian officials are expected to meet in the Iraqi capital Baghdad to restore diplomatic relations between Syria and Turkey, which were severed more than 12 years ago, after President Erdogan said there was “no reason not to meet with Syria”.

Press TV quoted an unnamed official as saying that the meeting would be the first step in a long process of negotiations leading to a political agreement, al-Watan reported.

According to the sources, Ankara has asked Moscow and Baghdad to pave the way for Turkish diplomats to sit at the negotiating table with the Syrian side without a third party. They also asked that the meetings be closed to the press.

Al-Watan noted that the Turkish-Syrian rapprochement and the initiative to restore diplomatic relations have received wide support from Arab countries, especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, as well as Russia, China and Iran.

Mutual statements

President Erdoğan said on Friday: “There is no reason not to re-establish diplomatic relations with Syria. We can do it again as we did in the past. We have no intention of interfering in Syria’s internal affairs. As you know, there is no reason why we should not re-establish diplomatic relations with Mr Assad, as we did in the past, down to family meetings”.

During a meeting with Russia’s special envoy to Syria, Aleksander Lavrentiev, in Damascus on 26 June, Syrian leader Assad said he was open to initiatives to normalise relations with Turkey.

“Syria is open to all attempts to normalise Syrian-Turkish relations on the basis of respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Syrian state and within the framework of the fight against all forms of terrorism,” SANA quoted Assad as saying.

New mediator Iraq

While Turkish-Iraqi relations are developing positively, Baghdad’s mediation role in the normalisation of Turkish-Syrian relations is attracting attention. On 31 May, during a visit to Turkey, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shiya al-Sudani said that he was working on reconciliation between Ankara and Damascus. Asked if he had spoken to Erdogan or Assad about this issue, Sudani replied: “Certainly, negotiations on this issue are continuing. And God willing, there will be some steps in this regard soon”.

In June, an Iraqi government source told Iraqi media that Baghdad would soon host officials from both countries in Baghdad as part of efforts to reconcile Syria and Turkey.

What happened?

Turkey severed all diplomatic ties with Syria in 2012 following the outbreak of war in 2011 and supported armed opposition groups in the northwest of the country.

Since 2016, Turkish forces have carried out a series of military operations and established a ‘safe zone’ in the north of the country, claiming that terrorist organisations such as PKK-ISIS threaten Turkey’s security.

The normalisation of relations between Ankara and Damascus began on 28 December 2022 with a Russian-mediated meeting between the Turkish and Syrian defence ministers in Moscow, the highest-level meeting between the two sides since 2011.

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Imran Khan accuses Pakistan army chief of cover-up of assassination plot against him

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Former Pakistani prime minister Imran Khan has stepped up his criticism of Pakistani army chief Asim Munir’s attempt to seize political power from his prison cell, The Intercept reports, citing several sources close to Khan.

The report also contains new allegations about Khan’s history with Munir. According to those in contact with the detained prime minister, Khan is making new allegations that he violated an agreement to remain neutral in Pakistani politics in exchange for accepting Munir’s appointment as army chief.

The deposed prime minister also claims that Munir conspired with his civilian political rivals, including former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, to work against him in exchange for dropping corruption charges that forced Sharif into exile.

According to the report, the escalating personal conflict between Khan and Munir is also an important part of the dialogue. Khan alleges that Munir ordered agents of Pakistan’s notorious Inter-Services Intelligence to kill him, and that the general covered up the assassination attempts by suppressing a police investigation and hiding CCTV footage.

While Khan’s fate remains the biggest unanswered question in the country’s politics, prison communiqués allegedly show that the situation was fuelled by animosity between Khan and Munir.

Khan’s allegations against Munir were shared with The Intercept by a number of sources close to him, who requested anonymity to protect their safety.

The correspondence allegedly includes surveillance footage and other evidence that Munir hatched a plan to have Khan killed in a raucous courtroom on 18 March 2023.

According to sources close to the former prime minister, Khan accused Munir of covering up the plot against him.

Among Khan’s supporters who believe his personal safety is at risk are Pakistani-Americans who recently lobbied Senator Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) to contact the Pakistani government about his safety.

As well as accusing Munir of betraying his trust and plotting to kill him, Khan has repeatedly claimed from prison that the general is leading the country towards a repeat of the traumatic partition of 1971.

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Israeli, Arab generals hold secret meeting

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Israeli Chief of Staff Hayzi Halevi met with his counterparts from various Arab armies in Bahrain to discuss regional security cooperation, two sources with direct knowledge of the meeting told Axios.

The meeting, which took place under the auspices of the US Central Command (CENTCOM), was not made public due to sensitivities surrounding the war in Gaza.

The meeting, which took place in Manama on Monday, was attended by CENTCOM commander Michael Erik Kurilla and Halevi, as well as senior generals from Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt.

According to Barak Ravid’s report, the meeting was a sign that military dialogue and cooperation between Israel and the Arab countries continues under the umbrella of CENTCOM, despite harsh public criticism of Israel’s military operations in Gaza.

The IDF and CENTCOM did not comment on the meeting.

CENTCOM and the Pentagon have recently sought to increase air defence cooperation with regional militaries.

The US success in countering Iran’s unprecedented missile and drone attack on Israel on 13 April is seen as a result of this work.

US officials say that cooperation with Israel and Arab countries in the region allows them to gather intelligence and receive early warning of an attack. This cooperation includes the active involvement of Jordan and Saudi Arabia in intercepting missiles and drones that pass through their airspace after being fired at Israel from Iran, Iraq and Yemen, they said.

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