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Israel expects Hezbollah to strike first

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Israeli officials are increasingly convinced that Hezbollah will strike first against Israel in the coming days, denying media reports that Iran is recalibrating the dosage of its potential response to Israel.

CNN, citing two intelligence sources familiar with the situation, reported that Hezbollah appears increasingly prepared to act against Israel ‘regardless’ of Iran’s expected response to the assassinations of its top military commander, Fouad Shokur, in Beirut and of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

One source said Hezbollah was moving faster than Iran in preparing for an attack in the coming days. According to CNN, several officials said Iran was continuing to prepare its retaliation plans, while a US military official said Tehran had already made some, if not all, of the expected preparations for a large-scale attack against Israel.

The second source said that unlike Iran, Hezbollah could launch an attack with little or no warning because of Lebanon’s border with Israel. The source added that it was unclear how or whether Iran and Hezbollah were cooperating on a possible attack, and that some officials believed they might disagree on how to proceed.

Iran expects ‘measured response’

On the other hand, according to Politico’s behind-the-scenes report, Iran is reconsidering a large-scale attack on Israel after the Biden administration pressured Tehran to rethink its retaliation plans.

According to the report, Iran has been warned that a multi-pronged attack on Israel could lead to a direct conflict between the two countries. Politico quoted officials as saying that they believed Iran would still respond, but that it would be more measured and might not be immediate.

Alleged ‘Israeli ceasefire bribe’

The Qatar-based al-Arabi al-Jadid newspaper reported that Israel has proposed a new ceasefire and hostage swap deal that would also end the war in Gaza in order to avoid Iranian and Hezbollah retaliation.

According to the report, Western and Arab officials close to both Israel and Iran have been circulating the text of the draft agreement for the past four days. The deal is said to include a ceasefire in Gaza, the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza to establish ‘sustainable calm’, as well as a prisoner exchange and a framework for the reconstruction of the region.

The report also noted progress in US and Western efforts to defuse tensions following the assassinations of Shoukry and Haniyeh.

Pimping claim

A report by the London-based Iran International claimed that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian ‘begged’ the country’s supreme leader to refrain from a direct attack on Israel, warning that an escalation could lead to Israel destroying Iran’s infrastructure and energy targets and crippling its economy.

The report, based on anonymous sources familiar with the matter and which could not be independently confirmed, claimed that Pezeshkian told Ali Khamenei that a war could deepen citizens’ discontent with the regime and even lead to Iran’s collapse.

The report said Khamenei made no commitments during the meeting.

‘One of our priorities is to punish the aggressor’

Iran’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations (UN), Saeed Iravani, spoke to Al Jazeera about claims that Iran would abandon its intention to attack Gaza in exchange for a ceasefire and an end to Israel’s occupation of the country.

“Our priority is to ensure the permanent cessation of attacks and the withdrawal of the occupation forces in Gaza. Our priority is also to punish those involved in the assassination of Shahid Haniyeh. Our other priority is to prevent the repetition of terrorist attacks by the Israeli regime.

‘Israel will receive a timely and appropriate response’

Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Baqeri told the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) meeting yesterday that Iran will exercise its right to self-defence.

Speaking at the OIC meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, to discuss Israel’s aggression against the Palestinian people and its violation of Iran’s sovereignty, Baqeri pointed out that the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has failed in its responsibility to stop Israel’s aggression in the region.

“Due to the Security Council’s failure to take appropriate action against the Israeli regime’s aggression and violations, Iran has no choice but to exercise its right to self-defence against this regime’s aggression. This action is necessary to prevent this regime from further attacks on Iran’s sovereignty, citizens and territory, and will be carried out at the necessary time and in an appropriate manner”.

Bakri said that the assassination of Haniyeh was possible with US approval and intelligence support to Israel, and that Washington’s responsibility in this assassination should not be ignored.

OIC support for Iran

The final statement issued by the OIC strongly condemned the assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran and held Israel fully responsible for the act.

“This is a dangerous attack on Iran’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and national security,” the statement said, adding that the assassination was a flagrant violation of international law and the UN Charter.

MIDDLE EAST

US military prepares plans if Gaza ceasefire talks collapse

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The US military is preparing for the collapse of ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas, amid fears it could spark a wider regional conflict.

I’m thinking about how that would affect tensions in the region if the talks were to stall or break down altogether, and what we need to do to be prepared in that situation,’ US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General CQ Brown told the Financial Times (FT) on Thursday.

Speaking en route to a meeting of the Ukraine Contact Group in Germany, Brown said he was assessing how regional actors would react if the talks failed and whether they would ‘step up their activities of any kind, potentially going down the path of miscalculation and widening the conflict’.

“My focus is on how not to expand the conflict, but also how to protect our forces,” the American general said.

Hostage deal still ‘not close’

Brown’s comments come as negotiations have reached an impasse. Israel and Hamas are at odds over details of the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, as well as Israel’s insistence on keeping troops in a strip of territory along Gaza’s border with Egypt, known as the Philadelphi Corridor.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Thursday that the United States would share with Israel and Hamas “in the coming days” its “thoughts on exactly how to resolve the remaining issues”. He added that ‘it’s up to the parties to decide yes or no’.

While the US has sought to remain optimistic about the talks, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly rejected claims of progress in the talks, telling Fox News on Thursday that a deal was ‘not imminent’.

Senior US officials say the talks are 90 per cent complete but acknowledge that difficult issues remain unresolved.

We’ve had setbacks, setbacks and more setbacks, and there’s no question that the administration is disappointed that we still haven’t completed this agreement,’ US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on Thursday.

A senior US official suggested that the deaths of six Israeli hostages held by Hamas last week ‘brought a sense of urgency to the [negotiating] process’ but also ‘raised questions about Hamas’ willingness to make a deal’.

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MIDDLE EAST

Gallant called Philadelphi insistence a disgrace: Ministers react

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Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant has described Israel’s insistence on the Philadelphi Corridor as ‘an unnecessary self-imposed constraint’. Gallant’s statement drew a response from the Prime Minister and ministers. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel would insist on continuing to occupy the Philadelphi Corridor.

It was reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and ministers targeted Defence Minister Yoav Gallant in the security cabinet, which met hours after Israel received the bodies of 6 Israeli prisoners in Gaza.

According to the Times of Israel, Gallant told the Security Cabinet, which met hours after the country’s largest trade union called for a general strike to demand a ceasefire and citizens held protests demanding the same, that Israel’s demand to retain control of the Philadelphi Corridor between Egypt and Gaza was ‘an unnecessary restriction we are imposing on ourselves’. Gallant warned that by insisting on this, the government ‘will not achieve its war aims’.

On Thursday last week, the Israeli security cabinet decided to continue the Israeli occupation of the Philadelphi Corridor. Following this decision, the bodies of 6 Israeli prisoners were found in Gaza. Thursday’s decision was made on the assumption that there is time, but there is no time if we want the hostages alive. It is a moral disgrace that we are giving priority to the Philadelphi Corridor at the expense of the lives of the hostages,’ Gallant told the ministers at the meeting.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich was quoted as saying: ‘If we give in to Hamas’ demands, as Gallant wants, we will lose the war.

These comments reportedly drew the ire of Netanyahu and other ministers. The Prime Minister reportedly told Gallant that he would stand by his demands despite the killing of six hostages, apparently executed by soldiers approaching their location in a tunnel under Rafah, Gaza.

Netanyahu reportedly claimed that if Israel abandoned the Philadelphi Corridor, ‘the hostages would be taken to Sinai and from there to Iran’, and recalled that the United States had agreed to Israel’s Philadelphi demand, asking ‘why do you object?

Both Justice Minister Yariv Levin and Foreign Minister Israel Katz reportedly accused Gallant of trying to create a dynamic in which Hamas would extract concessions from Israel as a result of the hostage-taking.

Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer reportedly said that a reversal of the Philadelphi decision would ‘encourage murder’, adding that Israel ‘must extract a very high price from Hamas for killing the hostages’.

Netanyahu also reportedly ordered the government to prepare proposals within 48 hours for a strong response to Hamas over the execution of the six hostages.

The Walla news website reported that after the meeting, Netanyahu discussed with people close to him ‘taking advantage of the turmoil’ to fire the defence minister.

Others close to the prime minister’s office told public broadcaster Kan on Sunday that Netanyahu would not fire Gallant any time soon, but that the prime minister and his inner circle were furious, saying Gallant had ‘lost his mind’.

‘The decision is binding on Gallant’

On the other hand, Netanyahu held a press conference with Egypt on Israel’s occupation of the 14-kilometre Philadelphi Corridor on the Gaza border and criticism that he had blocked the prisoner swap deal.

Netanyahu claimed that the attacks on Gaza reach their target through the Philadelphi Corridor and said, ‘We will not withdraw from here. We must all insist on staying here,’ he said.

Netanyahu claimed that when Israel withdrew from Gaza nearly 20 years ago, it talked about the importance of the Philadelphi Corridor, arguing that the failure to control the corridor was due to the fact that there was no international or national legitimacy to occupy Gaza and seize Rafah.

Referring to Defence Minister Gallant, Netanyahu said he was ‘shocked’ to hear some Israeli officials call for an end to the occupation of the Philadelphi Corridor following the discovery of the bodies of 6 Israeli prisoners in Gaza last week, adding that the decision had been taken by the cabinet and was ‘binding on everyone’.

Netanyahu also addressed the protests and criticism against him and his government, saying that ‘no one is as committed to the issue of rescuing (Israeli) prisoners as I am, and no one can tell me anything about it’.

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MIDDLE EAST

General strike against Netanyahu government begins

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Hundreds of thousands of people in Israel continued to protest overnight against Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and his government for refusing to sign the Gaza ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal. The largest trade union, Hisdatrut, went on strike today. Flights at Ben Gurion Airport were suspended for a limited time and tram services were halted at some points. Shops in shopping centres were closed.

Following the announcement that the bodies of 6 Israeli prisoners had been found in Gaza, protests began against Netanyahu and his government, which has been criticised for sabotaging the ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal.

The centre of the demonstrations was Menachem Begin and Kaplan Streets, where the Ministry of Defence is located in the capital Tel Aviv. According to the groups organising the demonstration, around 300,000 people took part in the protests in Tel Aviv, while more than 500,000 took part in demonstrations across the country. Protesters carrying Israeli flags also carried banners, posters and placards against Prime Minister Netanyahu and politicians in his government.

Demanding the immediate return of Israeli prisoners to their homes, the demonstrators played drums and whistles and carried banners reading ‘All home now’ and ‘Help’. The demonstrators chanted slogans such as “(Netanyahu) Bibi release the prisoners” and “You are in charge, you are guilty”.

After the demonstration organised here, the groups headed towards the main roads of the city. Israeli police, stationed behind iron barriers, tried to prevent the marchers from passing. Scuffles broke out at many points.

The demonstrators, who overcame the police barriers by using different routes, closed the Ayalon motorway, the main artery of the city, to two-way traffic. The demonstrators set fires at many points on the motorway and threw fireworks on more than one occasion. Israeli police used mounted troops and sound bombs against the demonstrators. The Israeli police, who clashed with the demonstrators, announced that they had arrested 15 people in Tel Aviv.

The marches and protests in Tel Aviv, Haifa and West Jerusalem, as well as in various parts of the country, demanded the resignation of the government and the return of the prisoners. Thousands of people gathered in Haifa, blocked the city centre junction and set fire to it. There were also scuffles when Israeli police tried to disperse the demonstrators. There were reports that demonstrators across the country blocked traffic on some roads and intersections during the protests.

General strike begins

As part of the general strike declared this morning by the country’s largest trade union, Hisdatrut, it was reported that departing flights at Ben Gurion Airport, Israel’s gateway to the world, were disrupted between 08:00 and 10:00, while arriving flights operated.

Israel Airports Authority spokeswoman Lisa Drir said that Ben Gurion Airport was open today, with 60,000 people expected to travel, and that all airlines had rescheduled their flights between 08:00 and 10:00 local time.

Queues formed at the airport’s departure counters early this morning. Departure screens at the airport showed that some flights had been delayed, but then flights were scheduled to depart on time.

Shops and businesses in the Mamilla shopping centre in West Jerusalem joined the strike and lowered their shutters. More than half of the shops and businesses in the Azrieli shopping centre in central Tel Aviv joined the strike and closed, but the rest of the shops and businesses were open today.

It was reported that some public transport bus companies and rail services will not operate until 12:00 noon, and trains and trams will operate at low capacity in some cities.

It was noted that public companies such as Israel Airports Authority, Israel Ports Authority, Haifa, Usdud (Ashdod), Hadera Ports, Israel Electricity Company and Israel Postal Services participated in today’s strike.

It was reported that some universities and municipalities and some national banks were on strike today, and organisations such as the Immigration Authority, the Tax Authority and the Parks and Gardens Authority will not go to work today.

It was reported that hospitals will work on a weekend basis, kindergartens and nurseries will be closed and schools will offer half-day classes.

It was reported that private companies from many sectors such as insurance, shopping mall operators, textiles and telecommunications in Israel also joined the strike today, criticising the government for the ‘political and economic situation’. It was seen that some shopping centres across Israel were closed today.

On the other hand, parallel to the strike, it was reported that thousands of people demonstrated in dozens of places across Israel, demanding that the government sign the Gaza ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement.

Government application to the court

Meanwhile, in Israel, the government petitioned the National Labour Court to stop the strike on the grounds that it was ‘politically motivated’ and not based on an industrial dispute.

The application, made at the request of Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, a far-right extremist, argued that ‘the strike is disrupting the functioning of the state, causing disruptions in health, education, transport and security in the extraordinary situation the country is going through’.

It was announced that the court would meet at noon today to discuss the state’s request to ‘suspend the strike’.

In response to the government’s request, Hisdatrut president Arnon Bar-David told the National Labour Court that the strike would end at 6 p.m. local time today.

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