Connect with us

Europe

Italy’s election results may speed up polarization in the EU

Published

on

The winner of the September 25 parliamentary elections in Italy was Giorgia Meloni, leader of the far-right coalition Brothers of Italy, which stood out with its heavy criticism and anti-immigration discourse against the European Union’s (EU) economically pioneering countries, especially France and Germany.

Meloni’s victory as the country’s first female prime minister marks a radical change of direction for Italy. On the other hand, this victory is creating concern for Brussels, which needs political unity more than ever due to rising inflation in the Eurozone, the energy crisis caused by sanctions against Russia, and Russia’s ongoing military campaign in Ukraine.

Although Meloni offers her full support to Ukraine for arms aid and anti-Russian sanctions, it is being debated whether Italy will become an inconvenient actor like Poland in the short and medium term for Brussels.

The electoral process

On September 25, the Italians voted on new MPs for the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. The polls closed at 11:00 pm. Deputies who hold seats in parliament will be fewer than before, as the 2020 constitutional reform has reduced its numbers from 945 to 600. There is a 3% electoral threshold for the parties that participate in the election.

According to exit polls, Brothers of Italy won 26% of the vote while its allied League party stands at 9.5% to 13.5%. Polls showed that former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia also won 6-8% of the vote.

According to a survey published by the SWG research company, the right-wing coalition, which the three parties are expected to form, garnered between 43% and 47% of the vote.

The right-wing coalition brings together Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, Matteo Salvini’s League party and Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia.

Meloni’s party used to be a junior partner in the center-right coalition. In the 2018 election, Meloni’s party polled at around 4 percent. But after 10 years in opposition seats, Brothers of Italy is stronger than ever.

Following the official results, President Sergio Mattarella will be expected to appoint the new prime minister and deputies.

Mattarella will elect the leader, who has the best chance of winning parliament’s support in the vote of confidence, as prime minister. Mattarella also has the official power to appoint ministers, although he generally appoints them on the advice of the new prime minister.

Components of the right and left coalition

During Meloni’s election campaign, her criticism of French President Emmanuel Macron’s policies sparked a debate.

At the same time, Meloni stated that she aimed to stop the flow of immigration across the Mediterranean and protect Italian companies by, for example, expanding the investment screening to other EU countries.

Matteo Salvini’s League party had a similar schedule and was constantly losing voters to Meloni. Former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, 85, leads the center-right Forza Italia, currently the smallest party in the right-wing alliance.

The leader of the center-left coalition is Enrico Letta’s Democratic Party. Letta, who served as prime minister from 2013 to 2014, supports Draghi’s reform plans while pursuing a social democratic and pro-EU policy. Letta was recently praised by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

The center-left coalition also includes minor parties such as liberal +Europa, Sinistra Italiana, Greens and Impegno Civico and The Five Star Movement.

What does Brussels say?

Some EU officials and member states are concerned that Meloni will become Italy’s next prime minister.

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on September 21 that if things go in a difficult direction after the elections, they have “tools”. During the campaign, however, Meloni sought to reassure the EU institutions and international partners that she was not outside the EU agenda.

However, her conservative discourse and past statements showed the opposite. Meloni wants to restart negotiations with Brussels on projects financed through the country’s post-pandemic recovery plan, arguing that priorities have changed with the current energy crisis.

Meloni also pledged to be cautious in public expenditures, but some member states do not want Meloni on the table during the upcoming EU talks on reforming public expenditures.

Will Rome continue its anti-Russian politics?

Given Meloni’s discourse, Italy’s attitude towards Russia is not expected to change. Draghi’s pro-NATO and pro-Ukrainian stance is shared by the Democratic Party and the third pole.

The right-wing parties were traditionally closer to Russia. But the military campaign, which began on February 25, caused all of them to turn their backs on Moscow.

Meloni took a more radical stance than Berlusconi and Salvini, condemning the “occupation” and supporting EU sanctions. Both Berlusconi and Salvini initially condemned the Kremlin’s move, but later took an increasingly moderate approach towards Russia.

Although Meloni recently supported the sanctions, she opposed the ones imposed after Crimea’s accession to Russia.

‘Italexit’?

The agenda adopted by Meloni and the right-wing coalition suggests that Brussels will have to endure another headache similar to Poland instance. As a matter of fact, Meloni’s statement during the election process was sufficient to describe the situation: “We are facing the most powerful and violent attack against governments of sovereign nations opposing the dictatorship of politically correct ideology.”

Meloni pointed to the EU’s reactions to changes in legislation that allegedly violated EU legislation in Poland and Hungary, as well as its efforts “to humiliate the British people who have freely chosen Brexit.”

Meloni is also the president of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), a pan-European umbrella party that includes Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party (PiS), as well as increasingly influential parties in countries like Spain.

Arguing that Italy should leave the Eurozone in 2014, Meloni accused the 5Stars government, led by Giuseppe Conte in 2018, of “surrendering to the bureaucrats in Brussels” over its decision to follow European spending rules.

More recently, as the only major party in opposition to Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s technocratic government, Meloni abstained in voting on Italy’s recovery plan five times.

The bloc, formed in recent years against the EU under the leadership of right-wing conservative parties in Eastern Europe, achieved considerable success with the Italian elections. The political axis of this bloc is also remarkable, as it matches the political agenda of the United States and the United Kingdom.

Europe

China’s critical mineral restrictions challenge EU defence expansion plans

Published

on

The European Union’s plans to expand its defence capabilities are being hindered by China’s export controls and sales restrictions on critical raw materials.

In response, EU leaders are urging member states to accelerate efforts to diversify supply chains.

According to Nikkei Asia, the European Commission announced last week that it would propose new legislation requiring companies across the bloc to broaden their supplier base in an effort to address economic imbalances, although it did not explicitly name China.

The war in Ukraine and growing uncertainty over Washington’s security guarantees have pushed European governments to increase military spending and defence production.

At the same time, according to a report published in May by Joris Teer, a policy analyst at the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), China accounts for at least 70% of global mining or refining activity in 17 of the 34 materials classified as critical by the EU. Eight of those 34 materials are currently subject to Chinese export controls.

“China is undermining Europe’s rearmament efforts,” Teer wrote. “Simply by activating this tool, China has already increased its leverage and demonstrated both the capability and willingness to restrict supply whenever it chooses.”

The Aerospace, Security and Defence Industries Association of Europe also warned that geopolitical developments and intensifying global competition for critical raw materials are further underscoring the need to strengthen European supply chains.

The organisation represents more than 4,000 companies, including Britain’s BAE Systems, France’s Thales and Germany’s Rheinmetall.

European defence manufacturers are pursuing a range of strategies, including vertical integration, recycling, diversification and stockpiling.

Rheinmetall told Nikkei Asia that it has “no dependencies” and is “well prepared” regarding critical minerals.

A company spokesperson said: “Rheinmetall has stockpiled key raw materials sufficient for several years. We have also implemented IT systems that allow us to centrally monitor and precisely manage raw material consumption across the entire group.”

Analysts, however, caution that stockpiling alone will not be sufficient. Maria Shagina, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said: “Stockpiling serves as an important buffer against sudden disruptions, but on its own it is unlikely to mitigate structural damage over the long term.”

Shagina added that replacing the volume and diversity of critical minerals controlled by Beijing with alternative sources would take years.

In 2024, the EU enacted the European Critical Raw Materials Act, aimed at rebuilding domestic supply chains for such minerals.

The legislation sets 2030 targets for domestic extraction, processing and recycling while limiting dependence on any single third-country supplier to 65%.

A €3 billion ($3.5 billion) fund was established last year to accelerate strategic projects.

Nevertheless, the European Court of Auditors has noted that the 2030 targets are not legally binding and that the EU remains far from achieving them.

Industry groups argue that policy inconsistencies could further slow progress.

The Cobalt Institute, which represents a sector vital to jet engines, advanced batteries and defence alloys, warned that proposed EU chemicals regulations risk undermining the industry.

“Europe has one foot in and one foot out,” said Michael Blakeney, head of government and public affairs at the London-based institute. “It says the right things, but its actions are inconsistent.”

Europe’s efforts are unfolding alongside a more aggressive US strategy to secure critical mineral supply chains.

Shagina said:

“The US is investing more capital to secure and expand capacity, taking greater financial risks and, in some cases, acquiring equity stakes. Europe, by contrast, is generally more cautious, which places it at a relative disadvantage in the competition for critical minerals.”

In April, the EU signed an agreement with the United States to coordinate supplies of critical minerals. Although some member states initially resisted over concerns that the deal could weaken the bloc’s strategic autonomy, they authorised the Commission in early June to join the US-led “Pax Silica” initiative, which coordinates investment and export-control policies.

Teer urged Europe to use ongoing US-EU-Japan negotiations as the nucleus of a broader coalition aimed at making critical mineral production outside China financially viable through state support, minimum-price mechanisms and supply rules.

“Particularly important are countries that either produce raw materials or possess significant mineral deposits, such as Malaysia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Brazil and Indonesia, as well as countries like India with large pools of skilled labour,” he said.

Teer also argued that the EU should activate its Anti-Coercion Instrument, which allows the bloc to impose tariffs and restrictions in response to economic pressure on countries outside the union, in order to deter China from introducing further restrictions.

A European Commission spokesperson said the bloc had “long been aware of the risks associated with the EU’s dependence on critical raw materials.”

“The objective is clear: to anticipate disruptions early and reduce the EU’s vulnerabilities while strengthening our industrial and defence capacities,” the spokesperson said.

Continue Reading

Europe

Four European countries move to make citizenship harder to obtain

Published

on

European countries are increasingly tightening their citizenship rules. Most recently, the Norwegian government has drafted legislation that would raise the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from three years to seven.

The proposed amendments to the citizenship law were presented by the Ministry of Labour and Social Inclusion.

Under the draft legislation, stateless individuals born in Norway, as well as those who arrived in the country as children, would be required to reside in Norway for at least five years before becoming eligible for citizenship.

The government also plans to increase residency requirements for foreign nationals who are married to or cohabiting with Norwegian citizens.

Language requirements are set to become more demanding as well. The proposal would raise the required level of spoken Norwegian proficiency from A2 to B1. The new rules would apply to applicants aged between 18 and 67.

Commenting on the changes, Minister of Labour and Social Inclusion Kjersti Stenseng said: “Obtaining and holding Norwegian citizenship should be a privilege.”

The government argues that simplifying administrative procedures while simultaneously tightening eligibility criteria will help reduce the country’s large backlog of pending applications and shorten processing times.

Norway is the latest European country to announce revisions to its citizenship rules.

In Finland, the minimum residency requirement for citizenship was increased from five years to eight years on October 1, 2024.

The country also plans to introduce a mandatory citizenship test for applicants aged between 18 and 64 from the beginning of 2027.

Finnish Interior Minister Mari Rantanen said: “The introduction of a citizenship test is the final component of a comprehensive reform aimed at making citizenship requirements more stringent.”

Sweden has also approved a similar reform. Beginning in June 2026, the standard residency requirement for citizenship will increase from five years to eight years. Authorities are also introducing a financial self-sufficiency requirement for applicants and expanding the scope of security screenings.

Explaining the rationale behind the changes, Migration Minister Johan Forssell said: “It was possible to become a citizen after living in the country for five years without knowing a single word of Swedish, learning anything about Swedish society, or even having one’s own source of income.”

The most far-reaching changes have been implemented in Portugal. Portuguese President Antonio Jose Seguro has signed legislation raising the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from five years to 10 years.

For citizens of the European Union and the Community of Portuguese Language Countries, the requirement has been set at seven years.

The residency period will now be calculated from the date a residence permit is granted rather than from the date a citizenship application is submitted. The new rules will also affect the children of immigrants.

Previously, children could obtain citizenship one year after birth if their parents held residence permits. Under the new rules, at least one parent must have legally resided in the country for a minimum of five years.

The law also introduces a mandatory examination covering Portuguese history, culture, values and social structures.

Migration policies are tightening across the European Union as well. On June 17, the European Parliament approved legislation allowing irregular migrants whose asylum applications have been rejected but who cannot be returned to their countries of origin to be deported to third countries.

The new EU rules permit the establishment of migrant detention centres outside the bloc’s borders. African countries are reportedly among the options being discussed for such facilities.

Continue Reading

Europe

SpaceX warns EU satellite spectrum plan could disrupt connectivity in Ukraine

Published

on

SpaceX has sharply criticised a European Union plan to restrict access to satellite spectrum, arguing that the proposal risks degrading connectivity in Ukraine and disrupting emergency communications services.

In a document shared with European officials and reviewed by the Financial Times, SpaceX warned:

“This proposal significantly increases the likelihood that Europeans will be deprived of direct-to-device satellite services, or that new European operations will create global interference issues, including for emergency services such as those operating in Ukraine.”

In a proposal unveiled in May, the EU recommended reserving part of the spectrum band used for direct satellite-to-smartphone connectivity for European operators, thereby limiting the frequencies available to US and Chinese providers.

The 2 GHz frequency band in question is currently used by two US companies, Viasat and EchoStar.

SpaceX argued that the EU plan prioritises “an operator’s country of establishment over economic, technical and regulatory realities.”

When the proposal was announced, EU technology chief Henna Virkkunen defended the move, saying the bloc wanted to “increase European capacity in this sector.” She added that other parts of the frequency band would remain open to international operators, arguing that prioritising European providers was justified.

Other participants involved in discussions over the proposal said some EU officials were specifically seeking to limit Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite network.

Europe’s initiative follows a warning from Washington. In March, the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) cautioned that it could take retaliatory measures if the EU chose to favour European satellite operators over alternatives such as Starlink.

At the time, FCC Chairman Brendan Carr told the Financial Times: “Some of the discussions in Europe regarding satellite sovereignty concern us. If Europe decides to move down that path, then, as you know, we will have to consider reciprocal measures.”

The European Commission’s proposal has not yet entered formal negotiations with EU member states or the European Parliament.

A source close to SpaceX said the company remained hopeful of influencing the outcome of the process, given concerns raised by both businesses and several European governments.

Continue Reading

MOST READ

Turkey