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Italy’s election results may speed up polarization in the EU

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The winner of the September 25 parliamentary elections in Italy was Giorgia Meloni, leader of the far-right coalition Brothers of Italy, which stood out with its heavy criticism and anti-immigration discourse against the European Union’s (EU) economically pioneering countries, especially France and Germany.

Meloni’s victory as the country’s first female prime minister marks a radical change of direction for Italy. On the other hand, this victory is creating concern for Brussels, which needs political unity more than ever due to rising inflation in the Eurozone, the energy crisis caused by sanctions against Russia, and Russia’s ongoing military campaign in Ukraine.

Although Meloni offers her full support to Ukraine for arms aid and anti-Russian sanctions, it is being debated whether Italy will become an inconvenient actor like Poland in the short and medium term for Brussels.

The electoral process

On September 25, the Italians voted on new MPs for the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. The polls closed at 11:00 pm. Deputies who hold seats in parliament will be fewer than before, as the 2020 constitutional reform has reduced its numbers from 945 to 600. There is a 3% electoral threshold for the parties that participate in the election.

According to exit polls, Brothers of Italy won 26% of the vote while its allied League party stands at 9.5% to 13.5%. Polls showed that former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia also won 6-8% of the vote.

According to a survey published by the SWG research company, the right-wing coalition, which the three parties are expected to form, garnered between 43% and 47% of the vote.

The right-wing coalition brings together Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, Matteo Salvini’s League party and Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia.

Meloni’s party used to be a junior partner in the center-right coalition. In the 2018 election, Meloni’s party polled at around 4 percent. But after 10 years in opposition seats, Brothers of Italy is stronger than ever.

Following the official results, President Sergio Mattarella will be expected to appoint the new prime minister and deputies.

Mattarella will elect the leader, who has the best chance of winning parliament’s support in the vote of confidence, as prime minister. Mattarella also has the official power to appoint ministers, although he generally appoints them on the advice of the new prime minister.

Components of the right and left coalition

During Meloni’s election campaign, her criticism of French President Emmanuel Macron’s policies sparked a debate.

At the same time, Meloni stated that she aimed to stop the flow of immigration across the Mediterranean and protect Italian companies by, for example, expanding the investment screening to other EU countries.

Matteo Salvini’s League party had a similar schedule and was constantly losing voters to Meloni. Former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, 85, leads the center-right Forza Italia, currently the smallest party in the right-wing alliance.

The leader of the center-left coalition is Enrico Letta’s Democratic Party. Letta, who served as prime minister from 2013 to 2014, supports Draghi’s reform plans while pursuing a social democratic and pro-EU policy. Letta was recently praised by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

The center-left coalition also includes minor parties such as liberal +Europa, Sinistra Italiana, Greens and Impegno Civico and The Five Star Movement.

What does Brussels say?

Some EU officials and member states are concerned that Meloni will become Italy’s next prime minister.

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on September 21 that if things go in a difficult direction after the elections, they have “tools”. During the campaign, however, Meloni sought to reassure the EU institutions and international partners that she was not outside the EU agenda.

However, her conservative discourse and past statements showed the opposite. Meloni wants to restart negotiations with Brussels on projects financed through the country’s post-pandemic recovery plan, arguing that priorities have changed with the current energy crisis.

Meloni also pledged to be cautious in public expenditures, but some member states do not want Meloni on the table during the upcoming EU talks on reforming public expenditures.

Will Rome continue its anti-Russian politics?

Given Meloni’s discourse, Italy’s attitude towards Russia is not expected to change. Draghi’s pro-NATO and pro-Ukrainian stance is shared by the Democratic Party and the third pole.

The right-wing parties were traditionally closer to Russia. But the military campaign, which began on February 25, caused all of them to turn their backs on Moscow.

Meloni took a more radical stance than Berlusconi and Salvini, condemning the “occupation” and supporting EU sanctions. Both Berlusconi and Salvini initially condemned the Kremlin’s move, but later took an increasingly moderate approach towards Russia.

Although Meloni recently supported the sanctions, she opposed the ones imposed after Crimea’s accession to Russia.

‘Italexit’?

The agenda adopted by Meloni and the right-wing coalition suggests that Brussels will have to endure another headache similar to Poland instance. As a matter of fact, Meloni’s statement during the election process was sufficient to describe the situation: “We are facing the most powerful and violent attack against governments of sovereign nations opposing the dictatorship of politically correct ideology.”

Meloni pointed to the EU’s reactions to changes in legislation that allegedly violated EU legislation in Poland and Hungary, as well as its efforts “to humiliate the British people who have freely chosen Brexit.”

Meloni is also the president of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), a pan-European umbrella party that includes Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party (PiS), as well as increasingly influential parties in countries like Spain.

Arguing that Italy should leave the Eurozone in 2014, Meloni accused the 5Stars government, led by Giuseppe Conte in 2018, of “surrendering to the bureaucrats in Brussels” over its decision to follow European spending rules.

More recently, as the only major party in opposition to Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s technocratic government, Meloni abstained in voting on Italy’s recovery plan five times.

The bloc, formed in recent years against the EU under the leadership of right-wing conservative parties in Eastern Europe, achieved considerable success with the Italian elections. The political axis of this bloc is also remarkable, as it matches the political agenda of the United States and the United Kingdom.

Europe

Vučić scrapped plan to hold power after phone warnings, report says

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Former Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić was preparing to retain power by force following the country’s parliamentary elections, according to a report by the British newspaper The Times, citing politicians and a former commander of a specialised police unit.

However, he abandoned this scenario after receiving phone calls urging him to back down.

Spasoje Vulević, the former head of the Serbian police counter-terrorism unit, told the newspaper that 4,000 police officers and 3,000 people whom he described as “thugs” were deployed to central Belgrade on voting day, 25 October.

According to Vulević’s assessment, Vučić was preparing to reject the election results.

Vučić’s spokeswoman denied the claim. Speaking to The Times, she said the police presence in Belgrade was a response to threats of violence from protesters and was unrelated to any attempt to seize power.

Member of the European Parliament Sandro Gozi also said he received alarming messages from diplomatic sources on election day indicating that Vučić was preparing for a scenario involving the use of force.

According to the newspaper, Gozi’s political group issued a statement around 21:00 local time, as initial projections were being released, warning that supporters of Vučić’s party could be mobilized to provoke clashes.

Where did the calls forcing Vučić to back down come from?

Radomir Saičić, a leading candidate from the winning Student List, also argued that plans had been made to alter the results by force if the vote margin between the sides was narrow.

“If the results were close, there were plans to overturn the outcome of the vote by brute force,” Saičić said. “However, according to the information I obtained, numerous calls to him from the police and other figures prompted him to change his mind. They convinced him that executing this plan would end very badly for him.”

Former commander Vulević, on the other hand, was sceptical that police officers could have played a decisive role.

Noting that Vučić personally selected the unit commanders in Belgrade and that these figures were unlikely to oppose him, Vulević said: “I suspect that representatives of European governments called Vučić; these were talks conducted at the highest level.”

European Parliament member Gozi did not confirm the claim that the telephone calls had a decisive effect.

“I cannot rule out the possibility that phone calls took place, but in any case, the vote margin against him was far too large,” Gozi said. “Vučić was stunned.”

According to The Times, roads were closed in Belgrade during the evening, gendarmerie personnel appeared on the streets, and groups of men dressed in black headed toward the city’s Pioneers Park (Pionirski Park).

Vulević claimed these individuals arrived in groups of 20 to 30. However, the newspaper reported that at 21:30, an hour and a half after polls closed, Vučić backed down and his assembled supporters dispersed.

From the Novi Sad collapse to early election defeat

Early parliamentary elections were held in Serbia on 25 October.

According to Election Commission data, after processing results from 8,139 ballot boxes, the Student List secured 52.65% of the vote, while Vučić’s United Serbia coalition remained at 39.22%.

Vučić conceded defeat without waiting for the final results.

“It is obvious that we have lost these elections. The Student List has won,” the politician said, attributing the opposition’s success to support from European countries and the US “deep state”.

Prior to the election, the country was the scene of prolonged mass protests that began after the collapse of a railway station canopy in the city of Novi Sad in November 2024.

Protesters initially demanded accountability for those responsible and an investigation into corruption allegations, before subsequently calling for the government’s resignation.

Having dissolved parliament in September 2026 and announced his resignation from the presidency, Vučić was subsequently nominated as the candidate for prime minister by his party.

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EU scrambles for takers for remaining €21B in SAFE defence loans

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The European Commission has until the end of the year to convince EU member states to take up around €21 billion in unused defence loans and support Ukraine’s defence.

The worsening security situation in the Black Sea could encourage Romania to seek additional loans. Bucharest has already secured €16.7 billion under SAFE.

The remaining figure became final after Hungary and Italy significantly scaled back their requests under the EU’s €150 billion Security Action for Europe (SAFE) programme.

On Wednesday, after approving Hungary’s spending plan, the final pending application, the Commission announced that it would soon launch a second call for applications.

The situation is very different from August 2025, when Brussels was confident that demand would far exceed the available €150 billion.

Applications from 19 EU countries eventually exceeded that sum by around €40 billion.

Now, national elections and pressure on public finances may make governments reluctant to take on additional debt.

Some EU diplomats told Rapporteur that the conditions for the second round remain unclear, making it difficult to say whether their countries would apply.

The Commission must publish the second call by the end of December. Unlike the first round, where countries could use the loans for national procurement contracts until May 2026, the remaining money must be spent on joint procurement.

Poland benefited from the previous flexibility, securing €43.7 billion, the largest national allocation, and moved quickly to sign contracts.

Warsaw announced that 90% of the money would go to Polish companies.

Brussels also hopes the remaining money will be used to bolster Ukraine’s defence.

In July, during an official visit to the country, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen suggested that around €10 billion in unused SAFE loans could be directed to Kyiv.

Defence Commissioner Andrius Kubilius mentioned the Freyja anti-ballistic missile project among the initiatives under consideration while discussing the second SAFE call at an E5 meeting in Paris this week.

Military sources told Rapporteur that participation in the second round had been considered under Romania’s previous government, but the proposal would now require a fresh political assessment.

Diplomatic sources in Athens told Rapporteur that Greece has also shown interest. The country had previously made an unsuccessful push to increase its allocation by several billion euros.

Polish Deputy Defence Minister Magdalena Sobkowiak-Czarnecka told Polish media this week that Poland was also discussing the conditions for another possible application, while Ireland has shown interest in the remaining funds.

Italy, having already reduced its initial request, is considered unlikely to participate in the second round.

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EU prepares Ukraine peace mission to Abu Dhabi led by Björn Seibert

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The European Union is preparing to take a direct role in the diplomatic negotiations surrounding the war in Ukraine.

According to a report by Euronews television, the European Commission and the European Council are establishing a joint delegation of high-ranking officials to attend an upcoming round of talks between the parties. Björn Seibert, the head of cabinet to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, will lead the delegation.

The German diplomat, described in the report as an influential bureaucrat, is expected to head the team attending the talks scheduled to take place in Abu Dhabi in early November.

“We are strongly committed not only to ending the war, but also to achieving a just and lasting peace. This is our goal, and this is precisely the position we defend in the current talks,” a European Commission representative said in a statement on the matter.

Brussels’s key figure behind the scenes

A European bureaucrat of German descent, Björn Seibert has long been recognized as von der Leyen’s closest aide.

Seibert first joined von der Leyen’s team in 2013 during her tenure as Germany’s defence minister, later moving with her to the European Commission.

According to reporting by Politico magazine, Seibert gradually developed into one of the most powerful figures behind the scenes of European politics.

The magazine noted that Seibert has been directly involved in clearing senior appointments and has played an influential role in managing relations with both the European Parliament and the US.

This setup has also sparked controversy within the institution. Critics claim that concentrating power in the hands of the cabinet chief and von der Leyen leads to excessive centralization in administration, whereas supporters argue the model ensures rapid, efficient decision-making.

If these multilateral contacts materialize to bring together delegates from Europe, Ukraine, the US, and Russia under one roof, they will mark the first talks held in this specific format during the peace process.

Diplomatic engagements so far have been conducted either bilaterally between Russia and the US or as trilateral meetings that included Ukraine.

However, the EU delegation’s participation at the negotiating table is not yet finalized, as the issue remains under consultation.

European capitals have actually spent months searching for a similar diplomatic channel. Politico reported in January that EU member states had discussed appointing a special envoy to lead talks with Moscow over Ukraine, an effort backed by French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

The Telegraph newspaper reported in October that, alongside Meloni, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, Czech President Petr Pavel, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen were being mentioned for the European representative role.

The newspaper noted that officials were also weighing the option of creating a joint delegation of representatives instead of choosing a single figure.

Reservations from Moscow over European intentions

Moscow, for its part, views Europe’s position as potentially decisive in resolving the conflict. “It is not enough to talk only with Kyiv; it is necessary to talk with the whole of Europe, which fully backs Kyiv in its desire to prolong the conflict. Perhaps Europe’s stance is of key importance here,” Russian Presidential Aide Yuriy Ushakov said.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitriy Peskov also stated that Moscow would support the emergence of an EU negotiator. “Having a negotiator is good. If that negotiator genuinely seeks to contribute to a peaceful settlement, it would be much better,” Peskov said.

Conversely, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov struck a cautious tone on 27 October regarding European countries’ interest in joining the talks. Lavrov stated that Europe wants a seat at the table without altering its outlook toward Moscow.

Arguing that Europe disregards Russia’s position on the root causes of the conflict, Lavrov emphasized that European nations do nothing beyond levelling accusations and demanding a halt to hostilities.

“This merely demonstrates the Europeans’ desire to join the negotiation process. However, the positions with which they would enter the process remain a major question mark,” the Russian minister said.

Despite these conflicting signals, Russian President Vladimir Putin previously noted that Moscow has not closed the door to dialogue with European nations.

As a preferred European negotiator, Putin previously named former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder.

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