The winner of the September 25 parliamentary elections in Italy was Giorgia Meloni, leader of the far-right coalition Brothers of Italy, which stood out with its heavy criticism and anti-immigration discourse against the European Union’s (EU) economically pioneering countries, especially France and Germany.

Meloni’s victory as the country’s first female prime minister marks a radical change of direction for Italy. On the other hand, this victory is creating concern for Brussels, which needs political unity more than ever due to rising inflation in the Eurozone, the energy crisis caused by sanctions against Russia, and Russia’s ongoing military campaign in Ukraine.

Although Meloni offers her full support to Ukraine for arms aid and anti-Russian sanctions, it is being debated whether Italy will become an inconvenient actor like Poland in the short and medium term for Brussels.

The electoral process

On September 25, the Italians voted on new MPs for the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. The polls closed at 11:00 pm. Deputies who hold seats in parliament will be fewer than before, as the 2020 constitutional reform has reduced its numbers from 945 to 600. There is a 3% electoral threshold for the parties that participate in the election.

According to exit polls, Brothers of Italy won 26% of the vote while its allied League party stands at 9.5% to 13.5%. Polls showed that former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia also won 6-8% of the vote.

According to a survey published by the SWG research company, the right-wing coalition, which the three parties are expected to form, garnered between 43% and 47% of the vote.

The right-wing coalition brings together Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, Matteo Salvini’s League party and Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia.

Meloni’s party used to be a junior partner in the center-right coalition. In the 2018 election, Meloni’s party polled at around 4 percent. But after 10 years in opposition seats, Brothers of Italy is stronger than ever.

Following the official results, President Sergio Mattarella will be expected to appoint the new prime minister and deputies.

Mattarella will elect the leader, who has the best chance of winning parliament’s support in the vote of confidence, as prime minister. Mattarella also has the official power to appoint ministers, although he generally appoints them on the advice of the new prime minister.

Components of the right and left coalition

During Meloni’s election campaign, her criticism of French President Emmanuel Macron’s policies sparked a debate.

At the same time, Meloni stated that she aimed to stop the flow of immigration across the Mediterranean and protect Italian companies by, for example, expanding the investment screening to other EU countries.

Matteo Salvini’s League party had a similar schedule and was constantly losing voters to Meloni. Former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, 85, leads the center-right Forza Italia, currently the smallest party in the right-wing alliance.

The leader of the center-left coalition is Enrico Letta’s Democratic Party. Letta, who served as prime minister from 2013 to 2014, supports Draghi’s reform plans while pursuing a social democratic and pro-EU policy. Letta was recently praised by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

The center-left coalition also includes minor parties such as liberal +Europa, Sinistra Italiana, Greens and Impegno Civico and The Five Star Movement.

What does Brussels say?

Some EU officials and member states are concerned that Meloni will become Italy’s next prime minister.

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on September 21 that if things go in a difficult direction after the elections, they have “tools”. During the campaign, however, Meloni sought to reassure the EU institutions and international partners that she was not outside the EU agenda.

However, her conservative discourse and past statements showed the opposite. Meloni wants to restart negotiations with Brussels on projects financed through the country’s post-pandemic recovery plan, arguing that priorities have changed with the current energy crisis.

Meloni also pledged to be cautious in public expenditures, but some member states do not want Meloni on the table during the upcoming EU talks on reforming public expenditures.

Will Rome continue its anti-Russian politics?

Given Meloni’s discourse, Italy’s attitude towards Russia is not expected to change. Draghi’s pro-NATO and pro-Ukrainian stance is shared by the Democratic Party and the third pole.

The right-wing parties were traditionally closer to Russia. But the military campaign, which began on February 25, caused all of them to turn their backs on Moscow.

Meloni took a more radical stance than Berlusconi and Salvini, condemning the “occupation” and supporting EU sanctions. Both Berlusconi and Salvini initially condemned the Kremlin’s move, but later took an increasingly moderate approach towards Russia.

Although Meloni recently supported the sanctions, she opposed the ones imposed after Crimea’s accession to Russia.

‘Italexit’?

The agenda adopted by Meloni and the right-wing coalition suggests that Brussels will have to endure another headache similar to Poland instance. As a matter of fact, Meloni’s statement during the election process was sufficient to describe the situation: “We are facing the most powerful and violent attack against governments of sovereign nations opposing the dictatorship of politically correct ideology.”

Meloni pointed to the EU’s reactions to changes in legislation that allegedly violated EU legislation in Poland and Hungary, as well as its efforts “to humiliate the British people who have freely chosen Brexit.”

Meloni is also the president of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), a pan-European umbrella party that includes Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party (PiS), as well as increasingly influential parties in countries like Spain.

Arguing that Italy should leave the Eurozone in 2014, Meloni accused the 5Stars government, led by Giuseppe Conte in 2018, of “surrendering to the bureaucrats in Brussels” over its decision to follow European spending rules.

More recently, as the only major party in opposition to Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s technocratic government, Meloni abstained in voting on Italy’s recovery plan five times.

The bloc, formed in recent years against the EU under the leadership of right-wing conservative parties in Eastern Europe, achieved considerable success with the Italian elections. The political axis of this bloc is also remarkable, as it matches the political agenda of the United States and the United Kingdom.