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MIDDLE EAST

Jaish al-Adl, a next door threat to Iran

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At least 11 Iranian police officers were killed in an armed attack claimed by the Jaish al-Adl group in southeastern Sistan and Baluchistan province. Iranian officials called the attack cowardly, and also said that some of the assailants involved in the attack on a police station in Rask city were killed and some others were taken into custody.

The Iranian officials did not provide further details on the identity of the detainees, but Iran’s police chief Ahmed Reza Radan has called for an urgent investigation into the attack.

In the last two years, Sistan and Baluchistan province has witnessed several attacks on security forces, and the Iranian officials blamed local terrorist groups for these attacks.

Why Jaish al-Adl is attacking Iran

It is worth mentioning that the Jaish al-Adl group has carried out several attacks against Iranian security forces in the past. Recently, militants associated with al-Adl have killed five Iranian border guards in the Sistan region. Another attack was five months ago when an unknown armed man killed two police officers in the same province. Nearly 25 other Iranian police officers received injuries.

Iranian mourners gather around coffins of Revolutionary Guards during their funeral in the city of Isfahan, February 2019. (AFP)

The important point is that the fighters of Jaish al-Adl had never carried out suicide bombings or planning landmines, rather they launch direct attacks against the security posts of the Iranian forces which indicates its complexity. But somehow, it also shows the intelligence failure of the Iranian spy agency to some extent.

What is the cause for increase in Jaish al-Adl’s attack; Apparently, there are two factors that the militants of Jaish al-Adl have often targeted Iran.

  • First – uncertainty in Zahedan city

Zahedan, the capital city of Sistan and Baluchistan province, has been in an almost unprecedented fever after the murder of Mahsa Amini. In 2022, Amini was killed right after she was arrested by the Iranian security forces for not wearing a proper hijab. Her death in custody for opposing mandatory hijab had sparked a wave of protests through Iran.

Meanwhile the sermons of Maulvi Abdulhamid Ismailzahi, a well-known cleric of Makki Zahedan Mosque, in defense of the “women, life, freedom” movement, which is still ongoing, made the atmosphere in Zahedan more insecure and caused the Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran to have a wider presence in this city.

Last year, the cleric Ismailzahi also spoke openly against a police officer who sexually assaulted a Baloch girl and caused massive protests in the region.

Deadly protests in Iran

The protest was organized after Friday prayer that was also called “Bloody Friday of Zahedan” in which more than a hundred people were killed. The outspoken Ismailzahi directly accused Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic, of being involved in the killing of the protesters.

Ismailzahi’s critical sermons also caused the police to put more pressure on him and arrested his grandson Abdul Nasir and his bodyguard.

Following that, Maulvi Abdul Majid Muradzahi, a famous Sunni cleric and Ismailzahi’s advisor, was also arrested. These arrests appear more dangerous as more attention has been paid to the exclusion of Sunnis in Iran.

Sistan and Baluchistan Iran’s most deprived province

Moreover, Sistan and Baluchistan is the most deprived province of Iran, as if its continuous deprivation deliberately. What confirms this claim is Iran’s indifference to Sunni rights.

Iran’s Sunnis are not in political power, nor do they enjoy the necessary freedom to perform their religious practice. It is claimed that the Islamic Republic has a prejudiced view towards the Sunnis, especially the Baloch.

For example, most of those who are executed are Baloch from Zahedan. It may be claimed that they commit a crime, but committing a crime also has a reason: deprivation, poverty, discrimination, etc.

When the above challenges are mixed with religion, the situation becomes more inflammatory and provides space for groups that call themselves Islamists. The origin of Jaish al-Adl is also coming from this province of Iran.

Jaish al-Adl considers itself the defender of Sunnis

This group considers itself the defender of the Sunnis and the opponent of the Islamic Republic.

Fighters of the Jaish ul-Adl separatist group on the Iran-Pakistan border

Although Ismailzahi, the Sunni preacher of Makki Zahedan Mosque did not condemn this attack, he expressed his condolences to the families of the victims and emphasized the need to maintain the security of Sistan and Baluchistan.

It is in no way to be claimed that Ismailzahi is happy about the attack, but at least he wants to tells the Iranian government that the discriminatory treatment of the Baloch and the narrowing of the encirclement ring and the killing of the protestors have consequences, no matter which group has been carried out the attacks.

  • 2- The return of the Taliban to power

Taliban and Jaish al-Adl have two things in common – both are Sunni and their base of operations is in Pakistan. The Taliban’s return to power, heralded as a victory against NATO, has emboldened other extremist armed groups.

For example, Khaled Meshaal, a member of the Hamas leadership, said during his interview with Al-Arabiya TV after the October 7 attack that the US was defeated by the Taliban and Israel will be defeated by Hamas. It follows from this statement that Hamas may be influenced by the Taliban’s return to power, and made its mind to attack Israel to destroy its regime.

Jaish al-Adl, which has strong ties with the Taliban, is not satisfied with anything less than victory. For example, Rahmatullah Nabil, former head of National Directorate of Security of the former government, claimed that two years ago Pakistan had sent 600 Jaish al-Adl fighters to help the Taliban in Nimroz, Farah and Herat provinces.

Pakistan harboring Jaish e-Adl fighters

Nabil recently also claimed that the Taliban had overthrown Nimroz province with the help of Jaish al-Adl. In the beginning of this year, an Iranian newspaper claimed that the Taliban have entrusted the responsibility of the provinces of Nimroz, Farah and Herat to Jaish al-Adl. However, there is no clear indication or report that now Jaish al-Adl has been controlling these provinces, but it delivers a clear sign on the depth of the relationship between Taliban and Jaish al-Adl.

It would not be wise to claim that the Taliban armed Jaish al-Adl fighters and encouraged them to attack Iranian soil, but at the same time it is important to put a glance over the relationship between Iran and Taliban which is now not so good. Apparently, Taliban use Jaish al-Adl as a tool to pressure against Tehran as it used Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) against Islamabad. Apart from this, the presence of Taliban in Afghanistan also gives strength to Jaish al-Adl to attack Iran.

Foreign countries supporting Jaish al-Adl

If the claims of the Iranian government are investigated, other factors such as the involvement of the United States, UK, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates can also be considered effective. Tehran accuses these four countries of supporting Jaish al-Adl.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander-in-Chief Mohammad Ali Jafari.

Iran has recently claimed that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are providing financial support to Jaish al-Adl. For instance, IRGC commander-in-Chief Mohammad Ali Jafari, in response to the killing of several Iranian soldiers in an attack carried out by the fighters of Jaish al-Adl, requested former Iran President Hassan Rouhani to let the IRGC take revenge on Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. Such a statement shows Tehran’s suspicions towards those two countries to support Jaish al-Adl.

Moreover, in February 2019, Jafari had warned Pakistan to crack down on the armed group of Jaish al-Adl following a suiciding attack in the border province of Sistan Baluchistan that killed 27 members of the elite security forces. At that time, Jafari said that if Pakistan fails to punish them, Iran will do so based on international law and will retaliate against the terrorists.

MIDDLE EAST

‘Turkey-Syria negotiations to be held in Baghdad’

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The Syrian daily al-Watan reports that the first round of talks between Syria and Turkey to normalise bilateral relations will take place in Baghdad.

Turkish and Syrian officials are expected to meet in the Iraqi capital Baghdad to restore diplomatic relations between Syria and Turkey, which were severed more than 12 years ago, after President Erdogan said there was “no reason not to meet with Syria”.

Press TV quoted an unnamed official as saying that the meeting would be the first step in a long process of negotiations leading to a political agreement, al-Watan reported.

According to the sources, Ankara has asked Moscow and Baghdad to pave the way for Turkish diplomats to sit at the negotiating table with the Syrian side without a third party. They also asked that the meetings be closed to the press.

Al-Watan noted that the Turkish-Syrian rapprochement and the initiative to restore diplomatic relations have received wide support from Arab countries, especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, as well as Russia, China and Iran.

Mutual statements

President Erdoğan said on Friday: “There is no reason not to re-establish diplomatic relations with Syria. We can do it again as we did in the past. We have no intention of interfering in Syria’s internal affairs. As you know, there is no reason why we should not re-establish diplomatic relations with Mr Assad, as we did in the past, down to family meetings”.

During a meeting with Russia’s special envoy to Syria, Aleksander Lavrentiev, in Damascus on 26 June, Syrian leader Assad said he was open to initiatives to normalise relations with Turkey.

“Syria is open to all attempts to normalise Syrian-Turkish relations on the basis of respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Syrian state and within the framework of the fight against all forms of terrorism,” SANA quoted Assad as saying.

New mediator Iraq

While Turkish-Iraqi relations are developing positively, Baghdad’s mediation role in the normalisation of Turkish-Syrian relations is attracting attention. On 31 May, during a visit to Turkey, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shiya al-Sudani said that he was working on reconciliation between Ankara and Damascus. Asked if he had spoken to Erdogan or Assad about this issue, Sudani replied: “Certainly, negotiations on this issue are continuing. And God willing, there will be some steps in this regard soon”.

In June, an Iraqi government source told Iraqi media that Baghdad would soon host officials from both countries in Baghdad as part of efforts to reconcile Syria and Turkey.

What happened?

Turkey severed all diplomatic ties with Syria in 2012 following the outbreak of war in 2011 and supported armed opposition groups in the northwest of the country.

Since 2016, Turkish forces have carried out a series of military operations and established a ‘safe zone’ in the north of the country, claiming that terrorist organisations such as PKK-ISIS threaten Turkey’s security.

The normalisation of relations between Ankara and Damascus began on 28 December 2022 with a Russian-mediated meeting between the Turkish and Syrian defence ministers in Moscow, the highest-level meeting between the two sides since 2011.

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MIDDLE EAST

Imran Khan accuses Pakistan army chief of cover-up of assassination plot against him

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Former Pakistani prime minister Imran Khan has stepped up his criticism of Pakistani army chief Asim Munir’s attempt to seize political power from his prison cell, The Intercept reports, citing several sources close to Khan.

The report also contains new allegations about Khan’s history with Munir. According to those in contact with the detained prime minister, Khan is making new allegations that he violated an agreement to remain neutral in Pakistani politics in exchange for accepting Munir’s appointment as army chief.

The deposed prime minister also claims that Munir conspired with his civilian political rivals, including former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, to work against him in exchange for dropping corruption charges that forced Sharif into exile.

According to the report, the escalating personal conflict between Khan and Munir is also an important part of the dialogue. Khan alleges that Munir ordered agents of Pakistan’s notorious Inter-Services Intelligence to kill him, and that the general covered up the assassination attempts by suppressing a police investigation and hiding CCTV footage.

While Khan’s fate remains the biggest unanswered question in the country’s politics, prison communiqués allegedly show that the situation was fuelled by animosity between Khan and Munir.

Khan’s allegations against Munir were shared with The Intercept by a number of sources close to him, who requested anonymity to protect their safety.

The correspondence allegedly includes surveillance footage and other evidence that Munir hatched a plan to have Khan killed in a raucous courtroom on 18 March 2023.

According to sources close to the former prime minister, Khan accused Munir of covering up the plot against him.

Among Khan’s supporters who believe his personal safety is at risk are Pakistani-Americans who recently lobbied Senator Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) to contact the Pakistani government about his safety.

As well as accusing Munir of betraying his trust and plotting to kill him, Khan has repeatedly claimed from prison that the general is leading the country towards a repeat of the traumatic partition of 1971.

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MIDDLE EAST

Israeli, Arab generals hold secret meeting

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Israeli Chief of Staff Hayzi Halevi met with his counterparts from various Arab armies in Bahrain to discuss regional security cooperation, two sources with direct knowledge of the meeting told Axios.

The meeting, which took place under the auspices of the US Central Command (CENTCOM), was not made public due to sensitivities surrounding the war in Gaza.

The meeting, which took place in Manama on Monday, was attended by CENTCOM commander Michael Erik Kurilla and Halevi, as well as senior generals from Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt.

According to Barak Ravid’s report, the meeting was a sign that military dialogue and cooperation between Israel and the Arab countries continues under the umbrella of CENTCOM, despite harsh public criticism of Israel’s military operations in Gaza.

The IDF and CENTCOM did not comment on the meeting.

CENTCOM and the Pentagon have recently sought to increase air defence cooperation with regional militaries.

The US success in countering Iran’s unprecedented missile and drone attack on Israel on 13 April is seen as a result of this work.

US officials say that cooperation with Israel and Arab countries in the region allows them to gather intelligence and receive early warning of an attack. This cooperation includes the active involvement of Jordan and Saudi Arabia in intercepting missiles and drones that pass through their airspace after being fired at Israel from Iran, Iraq and Yemen, they said.

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