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Jaish al-Adl, a next door threat to Iran

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At least 11 Iranian police officers were killed in an armed attack claimed by the Jaish al-Adl group in southeastern Sistan and Baluchistan province. Iranian officials called the attack cowardly, and also said that some of the assailants involved in the attack on a police station in Rask city were killed and some others were taken into custody.

The Iranian officials did not provide further details on the identity of the detainees, but Iran’s police chief Ahmed Reza Radan has called for an urgent investigation into the attack.

In the last two years, Sistan and Baluchistan province has witnessed several attacks on security forces, and the Iranian officials blamed local terrorist groups for these attacks.

Why Jaish al-Adl is attacking Iran

It is worth mentioning that the Jaish al-Adl group has carried out several attacks against Iranian security forces in the past. Recently, militants associated with al-Adl have killed five Iranian border guards in the Sistan region. Another attack was five months ago when an unknown armed man killed two police officers in the same province. Nearly 25 other Iranian police officers received injuries.

Iranian mourners gather around coffins of Revolutionary Guards during their funeral in the city of Isfahan, February 2019. (AFP)

The important point is that the fighters of Jaish al-Adl had never carried out suicide bombings or planning landmines, rather they launch direct attacks against the security posts of the Iranian forces which indicates its complexity. But somehow, it also shows the intelligence failure of the Iranian spy agency to some extent.

What is the cause for increase in Jaish al-Adl’s attack; Apparently, there are two factors that the militants of Jaish al-Adl have often targeted Iran.

  • First – uncertainty in Zahedan city

Zahedan, the capital city of Sistan and Baluchistan province, has been in an almost unprecedented fever after the murder of Mahsa Amini. In 2022, Amini was killed right after she was arrested by the Iranian security forces for not wearing a proper hijab. Her death in custody for opposing mandatory hijab had sparked a wave of protests through Iran.

Meanwhile the sermons of Maulvi Abdulhamid Ismailzahi, a well-known cleric of Makki Zahedan Mosque, in defense of the “women, life, freedom” movement, which is still ongoing, made the atmosphere in Zahedan more insecure and caused the Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran to have a wider presence in this city.

Last year, the cleric Ismailzahi also spoke openly against a police officer who sexually assaulted a Baloch girl and caused massive protests in the region.

Deadly protests in Iran

The protest was organized after Friday prayer that was also called “Bloody Friday of Zahedan” in which more than a hundred people were killed. The outspoken Ismailzahi directly accused Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic, of being involved in the killing of the protesters.

Ismailzahi’s critical sermons also caused the police to put more pressure on him and arrested his grandson Abdul Nasir and his bodyguard.

Following that, Maulvi Abdul Majid Muradzahi, a famous Sunni cleric and Ismailzahi’s advisor, was also arrested. These arrests appear more dangerous as more attention has been paid to the exclusion of Sunnis in Iran.

Sistan and Baluchistan Iran’s most deprived province

Moreover, Sistan and Baluchistan is the most deprived province of Iran, as if its continuous deprivation deliberately. What confirms this claim is Iran’s indifference to Sunni rights.

Iran’s Sunnis are not in political power, nor do they enjoy the necessary freedom to perform their religious practice. It is claimed that the Islamic Republic has a prejudiced view towards the Sunnis, especially the Baloch.

For example, most of those who are executed are Baloch from Zahedan. It may be claimed that they commit a crime, but committing a crime also has a reason: deprivation, poverty, discrimination, etc.

When the above challenges are mixed with religion, the situation becomes more inflammatory and provides space for groups that call themselves Islamists. The origin of Jaish al-Adl is also coming from this province of Iran.

Jaish al-Adl considers itself the defender of Sunnis

This group considers itself the defender of the Sunnis and the opponent of the Islamic Republic.

Fighters of the Jaish ul-Adl separatist group on the Iran-Pakistan border

Although Ismailzahi, the Sunni preacher of Makki Zahedan Mosque did not condemn this attack, he expressed his condolences to the families of the victims and emphasized the need to maintain the security of Sistan and Baluchistan.

It is in no way to be claimed that Ismailzahi is happy about the attack, but at least he wants to tells the Iranian government that the discriminatory treatment of the Baloch and the narrowing of the encirclement ring and the killing of the protestors have consequences, no matter which group has been carried out the attacks.

  • 2- The return of the Taliban to power

Taliban and Jaish al-Adl have two things in common – both are Sunni and their base of operations is in Pakistan. The Taliban’s return to power, heralded as a victory against NATO, has emboldened other extremist armed groups.

For example, Khaled Meshaal, a member of the Hamas leadership, said during his interview with Al-Arabiya TV after the October 7 attack that the US was defeated by the Taliban and Israel will be defeated by Hamas. It follows from this statement that Hamas may be influenced by the Taliban’s return to power, and made its mind to attack Israel to destroy its regime.

Jaish al-Adl, which has strong ties with the Taliban, is not satisfied with anything less than victory. For example, Rahmatullah Nabil, former head of National Directorate of Security of the former government, claimed that two years ago Pakistan had sent 600 Jaish al-Adl fighters to help the Taliban in Nimroz, Farah and Herat provinces.

Pakistan harboring Jaish e-Adl fighters

Nabil recently also claimed that the Taliban had overthrown Nimroz province with the help of Jaish al-Adl. In the beginning of this year, an Iranian newspaper claimed that the Taliban have entrusted the responsibility of the provinces of Nimroz, Farah and Herat to Jaish al-Adl. However, there is no clear indication or report that now Jaish al-Adl has been controlling these provinces, but it delivers a clear sign on the depth of the relationship between Taliban and Jaish al-Adl.

It would not be wise to claim that the Taliban armed Jaish al-Adl fighters and encouraged them to attack Iranian soil, but at the same time it is important to put a glance over the relationship between Iran and Taliban which is now not so good. Apparently, Taliban use Jaish al-Adl as a tool to pressure against Tehran as it used Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) against Islamabad. Apart from this, the presence of Taliban in Afghanistan also gives strength to Jaish al-Adl to attack Iran.

Foreign countries supporting Jaish al-Adl

If the claims of the Iranian government are investigated, other factors such as the involvement of the United States, UK, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates can also be considered effective. Tehran accuses these four countries of supporting Jaish al-Adl.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander-in-Chief Mohammad Ali Jafari.

Iran has recently claimed that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are providing financial support to Jaish al-Adl. For instance, IRGC commander-in-Chief Mohammad Ali Jafari, in response to the killing of several Iranian soldiers in an attack carried out by the fighters of Jaish al-Adl, requested former Iran President Hassan Rouhani to let the IRGC take revenge on Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. Such a statement shows Tehran’s suspicions towards those two countries to support Jaish al-Adl.

Moreover, in February 2019, Jafari had warned Pakistan to crack down on the armed group of Jaish al-Adl following a suiciding attack in the border province of Sistan Baluchistan that killed 27 members of the elite security forces. At that time, Jafari said that if Pakistan fails to punish them, Iran will do so based on international law and will retaliate against the terrorists.

Middle East

France explores Syrian transit routes as alternative oil corridor to bypass Strait of Hormuz

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France is evaluating the creation of alternative energy routes through Syria to mitigate potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz following the resumption of hostilities between the United States and Iran. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot stated that Paris is working on new transit routes for the transport of Persian Gulf oil, with Syria emerging as a prominent option in this context.

“Among the initiatives we have pursued since the beginning of this crisis is the concept of preparing alternative routes, in order to avoid remaining dependent on blockages that could occur here or there,” Barrot said.

Barrot indicated that Syria, which has entered a process of reunification following the collapse of the Bashar al-Assad administration, could become a “new regional hub.” The French minister characterized the country as a strategic corridor that could transport Persian Gulf oil to the Mediterranean, thereby reducing the impact of potential shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Stating that France wishes to expand commercial and economic cooperation with the Damascus administration, Barrot expressed that they aim to establish a secure transit route for Gulf producing nations through this cooperation.

According to Barrot, implementing this plan requires a comprehensive assessment of existing infrastructure and the provision of necessary security guarantees. The French minister noted that these efforts are of critical importance for securing global energy markets.

Barrot’s remarks followed French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Damascus on Tuesday. During the visit, Macron met with Ahmed Shara, the former al-Qaeda leader who has declared himself President of Syria.

Patrick Pouyanné, the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of TotalEnergies, was among the delegation accompanying Macron. Characterizing Syria as a country situated “at the crossroads of the Middle East,” Pouyanné said it could establish a vital energy link between Iraq and the Mediterranean.

In response to the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Iraq has been shipping its oil via tankers through Syria for export since April.

More than 600,000 tons of fuel were exported through this route between April and June. Last month, Iraqi and Syrian officials discussed the reactivation of the Kirkuk-Baniyas oil pipeline and the establishment of energy transit mechanisms.

TotalEnergies has also signed a memorandum of understanding for an offshore exploration block in the Mediterranean. However, Pouyanné stated that beyond this, the company currently has no concrete projects under development.

Stating that security conditions in the country have not yet stabilized, Pouyanné said, “It is clear today that the security situation does not yet permit us to operate here. However, I believe coming here, to Damascus, is a positive initiative.”

Shortly after Pouyanné’s statements, two bombs reportedly exploded near the Four Seasons Hotel, where the French delegation was staying.

Stating that the Syrian administration must be given time to establish control over the country, Pouyanné said, “We must not demand too much,” adding, “We need to be a little patient.”

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Senior US military officers ignored system alerts on obsolete targets, leading to strike on Iranian school

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Senior US military commanders approved strike lists despite automated system warnings indicating that intelligence on certain targets in Iran was years out of date and required revalidation, according to a CNN report citing three sources familiar with the decision-making process.

The warnings were bypassed to “speed things up” under intense pressure to rapidly designate targets during the opening days of the conflict. One of the targets approved by commanders under these conditions resulted in a strike on a school in Minab.

This military decision is directly linked to the February 28 strike on the Shajara Tayyiba School in Minab, which killed at least 168 children and 14 teachers. The heavy loss of life makes the strike one of the mass casualty events involving the highest number of civilian deaths in the recent history of the US military.

According to the sources, automated system warning messages indicating that the intelligence was obsolete were already integrated into the database used during the target development process. Within this system, a target could only be added to a strike list with the approval of a senior officer. Two sources stated that the decision by senior commanders to ignore these warnings directly contributed to the school being targeted “by mistake.”

Military officials reportedly realized within days of the strike on the school that the error stemmed from outdated information. Despite the passage of months, the Pentagon has not released its investigation report on the incident.

A White House official stated that the investigation remains ongoing, asserting, “As we have said before, the US does not target civilians.”

The Pentagon referred inquiries on the matter to US Central Command (CENTCOM), which declined to comment, citing the active investigation.

School and military facility were located within the same compound

The strike reportedly occurred while the US military was targeting an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) facility located near the Shajara Tayyiba School. Initial military investigative findings also pointed to this conclusion.

Satellite imagery reveals negligence in the target analysis process. Imagery from 2013 shows the school and the IRGC base located within the same compound, whereas imagery from 2016 clearly indicates that the school had been separated from the base by a fence and provided with a separate entrance.

In satellite imagery dated December 2025, dozens of children can be seen playing in the schoolyard.

The strike took place on the first day of operations following Donald Trump’s decision to launch military action, a period during which military officials and intelligence analysts worked under intense pressure to update thousands of targets.

Analysts were unable to update all records in the Pentagon database prior to the operation. As a result, records for multiple targets—including the IRGC facility adjacent to the elementary school—consisted of information that was more than 10 years old.

Due to the accelerated timeline, analysts prioritized updating “high-priority” records, which included moving targets with a high probability of being struck first and locations posing an immediate threat to US forces. Because fixed facilities were deemed a lower priority, the information for the facility near the school was not updated.

Disconnected databases and staffing shortages compounded the error

At the center of the investigation are two separate targeting databases used by the Pentagon. These are known as the Modernized Integrated Database (MIDB), which was built in the 1980s and relies on manual data entry, and the Mitigation and Analysis Reporting System (MARS), a new artificial intelligence-backed digital platform.

Both systems indicated that information needed to be updated before use. However, efforts to fully transition to the MARS system were reportedly years behind schedule, leaving official targeting data still dependent on the legacy MIDB system.

An intelligence analyst had previously noted changes on the ground in a separate digital tool, but because this tool was not connected to the official targeting database, the information did not reach commanders. How this disconnect influenced the targeting of the school is also being examined as part of the investigation.

Following the strike, Donald Trump suggested that Iran might be responsible for the incident, later asserting that responsibility might never be determined. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that the strike would be thoroughly investigated, claiming that the US takes every possible measure to prevent civilian casualties.

However, due to cuts implemented early in Hegseth’s tenure, Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response (CHMR) teams within CENTCOM were reportedly facing severe staffing shortages.

Under the cuts made by Hegseth prior to the conflict with Iran, the 10-person civilian casualty specialist staff at CENTCOM was reduced to a single full-time employee.

Sources added that while the remaining staff did everything they could, they lacked adequate resources due to the budget and personnel cuts implemented by Hegseth.

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US revokes Iran oil license and launches airstrikes following Strait of Hormuz tanker attacks

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The US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has revoked a general license that permitted commercial transactions involving Iranian oil.

According to a statement issued by the agency, the “General License X” regulation, which had been in effect since June 21, 2026, was fully rescinded as of July 7, 2026, and replaced by the newly introduced “General License X1” regulation.

The statement noted that a wind-down period lasting until July 17 has been granted to allow for the completion of transactions initiated prior to the revocation.

The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs reacted strongly to the OFAC decision, declaring that Tehran will take all necessary measures to protect its national security and interests.

In a statement shared on the ministry’s official Telegram channel, Iran stated: “The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran decisively condemns the US Department of the Treasury’s decision to revoke the temporary suspension of sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil. This step is a flagrant violation of Article 10 of the memorandum of understanding concerning the cessation of military conflict.”

Following the decision, the US Armed Forces conducted a series of airstrikes targeting Iranian territory during the night of July 8. US officials maintained that the military operation was a response to Tehran’s actions in the region. Washington characterized Iran’s conduct as a violation of the ceasefire regime and a threat to the security of navigation in the region.

The Iranian state broadcaster, IRIB, reported that explosions occurred at various locations across the country. News sources noted that seven explosions were heard near the village of Taherui in the Sirik district, and six explosions were heard near the city of Qeshm.

Previously, US media outlets including The Wall Street Journal and Axios, citing US officials, had reported that despite the active ceasefire, forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had attacked oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz.

According to data shared by the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), a tanker off the coast of Oman was struck by an unidentified munition, causing a fire on board. It was reported that the incident resulted in no casualties, injuries, or environmental pollution.

The Wall Street Journal reported that one of the targeted vessels may have been the “Al Rekayyat,” a tanker owned by the Qatar-based shipping company Nakilat.

The vessel sustained damage to its engine room, though the crew was reported to be safe. Axios reported that while the attacked vessels sustained damage, no major destruction had occurred.

On June 18, 2026, the US and Iran had signed a memorandum of understanding that established a two-month ceasefire and envisioned the initiation of negotiations for a more comprehensive agreement.

Following the start of the ceasefire period, the US had also struck targets in Iran on June 27 and June 28, citing Iranian actions against commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

Following those strikes, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had announced that operations would be launched against US facilities located in Arab countries.

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