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Latest news from New Caledonia: French government bans TikTok

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In New Caledonia, the French colonial territory, Paris’ new electoral law has provoked a reaction from the indigenous population. Accusing the French government of trying to weaken the representation of the region’s indigenous population, French law enforcement officials have launched an intensive crackdown on the locals.

Three people lost their lives in the last night of violent protests. Media reports put the death toll at four.

New Caledonia, located between Australia and Fiji, is one of the few French territories stretching from the Caribbean and Indian Ocean to the Pacific that remains part of post-colonial France.

In a statement on the actions of the people of New Caledonia, the French Presidency said: “The President of the Republic deeply regrets the death of three people and the serious injury of a gendarme. All acts of violence are unacceptable and will be combated relentlessly to ensure the return of republican order,” it said.

State of emergency declared

President Emmanuel Macron has called an emergency meeting of the French National Defence Committee to discuss the situation and propose the declaration of a state of emergency in New Caledonia.

Macron has asked the French prime minister and interior minister to invite representatives from New Caledonia to Paris to reach an agreement.

France also declared a state of emergency today after sending troops to New Caledonia’s ports and international airport.

The emergency measures give the authorities more powers to tackle the rebellion that has gripped New Caledonia.

Additional powers under the state of emergency include house arrest, searches, confiscation of weapons and restrictions on the movement of people deemed to pose a threat to public order.

The last time France used such measures in one of its overseas territories was in 1985, also in New Caledonia, according to the Interior Ministry.

Prime Minister Attal: Violence will not be tolerated

“Violence of any kind will not be tolerated,” said Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, adding that the state of emergency “will allow us to use great means to restore order”.

Attal told a crisis meeting that troops had been deployed to secure ports and the international airport, and that the government’s representative in New Caledonia had “banned TikTok”.

The airport, where the troops were deployed, was closed to international flights.

“Dozens of rebels have been arrested and will be tried,” the French High Commission in New Caledonia said in a statement early on Wednesday.

The High Commission said ‘serious social unrest’ continued and condemned the widespread looting and burning of businesses and public property, including schools.

The cause of the riots: Reducing local representation

The French parliament passed a bill on Tuesday that would allow all citizens who have lived on the island for more than 10 years to vote in local elections, arguing that New Caledonia’s pro-independence movements would weaken the representation of the region’s indigenous population, the Kanaks.

The change, which requires a constitutional amendment, must be approved by parliamentarians in the Senate and National Assembly in a joint vote.

Since 2007, only those who were eligible to vote in 1998 (when the French government signed an agreement recognising ‘the legitimacy of the Kanaks as the indigenous people of New Caledonia’ and granting the territory greater autonomy) or their descendants have been able to elect the local executive.

As tensions escalated in Nouméa, the capital of New Caledonia, airports were closed and a curfew was imposed last night to prevent riots. Louis Le Franc, France’s representative in the region, described the low death toll as a ‘miracle’.

Local media reported looting, arson and the use of firearms.

Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin said in a radio interview that ‘around 100’ security forces had been injured and that the curfew would remain in place.

In a statement, the Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front, the region’s main pro-independence force and the largest party in the local congress, “condemned” Tuesday night’s violence and called for “calm and appeasement”. “The unstable social climate … clearly shows the desire of a section of the population to make their voice heard about their future and the future of their country,” the party said, reiterating its call for the electoral reform to be scrapped in parliament.

Sonia Backès, a local official and former minister in Macron’s government who opposes the region’s independence, called for France to declare a “state of emergency” and accused some separatists of promoting “anti-white racism”.

Three referendums on New Caledonia’s independence will be held between 2018 and 2021. In the first two, a narrow majority of voters supported remaining part of France, but the third was held with a low turnout, with separatists calling on their supporters to boycott the vote after the state refused to postpone it due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Social media ban

Meanwhile, the French government has announced a ban on TikTok in a bid to tackle the insurgency in the region.

French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said the popular video-sharing app would be shut down as part of a state of emergency that includes the deployment of the army and a curfew on the island of around 270,000 people.

In July 2023, French President Emmanuel Macron floated the idea of shutting down platforms such as Snapchat and TikTok in a bid to contain riots in France’s major cities after a teenager was killed by a police officer.

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U.S. sets up new ‘air defence base’ in Poland

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The United States inaugurated a new air defense base in northern Poland on Wednesday, marking a significant move in NATO’s defense strategy. Polish President Andrzej Duda stated that the base strengthens Poland’s security as a NATO member, especially as the war in Ukraine continues.

Located in Redzikowo, a town near the Baltic coast, the base has been in development since the early 2000s. Amid concerns following Donald Trump’s election, some NATO members are uneasy about future commitments. However, Polish officials emphasize that the consistent support of the base project across U.S. administrations underscores the enduring military alliance between Poland and the United States.

“The United States is the guarantor of Poland’s security,” Duda asserted, underscoring that the presence of U.S. troops highlights Poland’s sovereignty and reinforces that it is “not in Russia’s sphere of influence,” despite its historical ties as a socialist state until 1989.

On the other side, Kremlin officials described the base as an attempt to “contain Russia” by positioning American military infrastructure closer to Russian borders.

The Redzikowo base is a vital component of NATO’s Aegis Ashore missile defense shield, designed to intercept short- and medium-range ballistic missiles. Other key elements of this NATO defense shield include a base in Romania, U.S. Navy destroyers stationed at Rota, Spain, and an early warning radar located in Kürecik.

Russia has long viewed the base as a threat, initially opposing the project in 2007. NATO maintains that the shield is “purely defensive” and asserts that it’s not targeted at Russia.

According to military sources cited by Reuters, the Redzikowo system currently targets missiles from the Middle East. Redirecting the radar to intercept missiles from Russia would require a policy shift and complex procedural adjustments.

Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz recently called for expanding the defense shield, stating that Warsaw would discuss further plans with NATO and the United States.

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German think tank DGAP: Germany and Europe must build military strength in the Asia-Pacific region

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Germany’s leading foreign policy journal, Internationale Politik, calls for significant rearmament and militarization efforts to strengthen European influence in the Asia-Pacific region.

According to Internationale Politik, published by the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), European nations should rapidly expand their armed forces and take control not only of their own continent but also, “if necessary, the Mediterranean, the Red Sea, and the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb,” to “reduce reliance on U.S. troops in Europe.”

If successful, the journal argues, the United States would retain adequate military capacity “in the event of a war in the Indo-Pacific.” In such a scenario, European nations should also prepare for a potential conflict with China and enhance their defense industrial capacity to replenish depleted U.S. munitions if required.

The ‘Asianization’ of security architecture

Calls for a stronger German and European military presence in the Asia-Pacific are driven by the intensifying power struggle between the West and China and the increasing inclination of Asian nations to pursue independent military policies rather than aligning with declining Western dominance.

Felix Heiduk, director of the Asia Research Group at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), describes this trend as the “Asianization” of regional security architecture.

Indonesia exemplifies this shift. Since 2007, Indonesia has conducted regular military exercises with the United States, the latest spanning August 26 to September 6, 2024. However, Jakarta has also expanded ties with Russia. During a recent meeting with President Vladimir Putin, Indonesia’s current president and former defense minister, Prabowo Subianto, expressed that he sees Russia as a “great friend” and intends to strengthen relations with Moscow.

Last week, Russia and Indonesia held their first joint military exercises, which Jakarta considers a demonstration of its independent foreign and military policy.

The ‘Indo-Pacific’ as a Japanese-American concept and Germany’s role

The concept of the Indo-Pacific frequently underpins arguments for expanding military activities into the Asia-Pacific. In Internationale Politik, Heiduk clarifies that this term is “neither geographically neutral nor value-neutral” but rather “purely political.”

Heiduk explains that the concept of a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific”, which the U.S. adopted from Japan, aims to encircle China and maintain U.S. hegemony in Asia. He further notes that Germany is also entangled in this geopolitical struggle.

Heiduk points to Germany’s Asia-Pacific military deployments in 2021 and 2024, along with maneuvers involving German air and ground forces in Australia and other countries in the region. These actions align with Berlin’s official Indo-Pacific Strategy—a conflict framework Germany has adopted in alignment with the U.S. in its great power struggle with China.

Europe’s Need to Rebuild Its Land Armies

Max Bergmann, an expert from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, illustrates the pressure for greater militarization in the Asia-Pacific in a recent article for Internationale Politik.

Bergmann describes European nations as lacking “hard power,” noting that European armies have been underfunded for two decades and that rebuilding ground forces should be the priority. He argues that while Britain and France possess advanced weapons systems, including anti-submarine capabilities, their forces are “too thinly deployed.”

While Russia remains the immediate military priority for Europe, Bergmann sees a long-term role for European security in the Indo-Pacific.

Reducing the U.S. military rresence in Europe

The CSIS expert suggests six strategic steps Europe can take to reduce U.S. military presence.

The first step, according to Bergmann, is for Europe to focus on securing the continent, the Mediterranean, and, if needed, the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb. This would allow the U.S. to concentrate fully on the Indo-Pacific if war broke out in the region.

Bergmann notes that in such a conflict, the U.S. could dedicate its full military production capacity to support Indo-Pacific logistics, but only if Europe is militarily fortified.

Beyond the ‘third way’ for Europe

Bergmann proposes additional diplomatic and security roles for European states. He advocates strengthening relations with countries like Vietnam, which have limited ties with the U.S. However, he emphasizes that Europe should not pursue a “Gaullist third way” between the U.S. and China since European interests align closely with U.S. strategic interests.

Finally, Bergmann recommends that European states establish stronger military-political and arms-industrial partnerships within the Asia-Pacific and, ultimately, bolster their own military presence in the region. The most effective way to achieve this, he suggests, would be to organize a European naval mission under the EU flag to coordinate all European naval activities in the Asia-Pacific.

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Green light from CDU for debt brake reform

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Friedrich Merz, leader of Germany’s conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), announced on Wednesday that the constitutional debt brake, which limits public deficits to 0.35% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), could be open to reform under certain conditions.

Merz, the frontrunner to become Germany’s next chancellor after the collapse of the country’s “traffic light” coalition, has previously argued that Germany should adhere to the constitutionally guaranteed debt brake, a measure introduced by his party under Angela Merkel in 2009.

The debate over debt brake reform within the CDU was reignited this year by Berlin’s conservative mayor Kai Wegner. Several powerful CDU leaders from regional governments have also supported the reform push, as these states face more constraints than the federal government and lack the flexibility for new borrowing.

Merz: Revision possible if borrowing is for investment

Pressure is mounting within the party, with CDU state premiers urging Merz to include debt brake reform plans in the campaign for the early elections on 23 February.

Speaking at an event on Wednesday, Merz stated: “Of course, reform is possible. The question is: why? To what end? What would be the result of such a reform?”

Merz emphasized that he would not support reform aimed at increasing consumption or social policy spending. However, he suggested that if additional borrowing were used to increase investment, “then the answer could be different.”

According to the Greens, the only way out of the crisis is a revision of the debt brake

Merz noted that the debt brake was a “technical issue” and stated that he did not wish to engage in the discussion at that moment. Later, a source close to the CDU leader told Reuters that Merz had no immediate plans to reform the debt brake.

However, Bruno Hönel, a member of the Bundestag’s budget committee from the Greens, argued that if Merz assumed power, the debt brake would be reformed immediately, pointing out that the budget could not be financed without borrowing during such a crisis.

Hönel stated, “If you want to work with the budget in a forward-looking way, there is no other way than to reform the debt brake.” He also noted that 80 billion euros would be needed to meet NATO’s 2% defense spending target by 2028, nearly 30 billion euros more than the draft budget for 2025, which currently envisions defense spending of 53 billion euros.

Traffic light coalition collapses over debt brake debate

The debt brake was a key factor in the collapse of the coalition, leading to calls for early elections.

Christian Lindner, leader of the fiscally conservative Free Democrats (FDP), who was dismissed as finance minister last week by Social Democrat Chancellor Olaf Scholz, claimed that Scholz had pressured him to suspend the debt brake.

Suspending the debt brake in an emergency, citing special circumstances, is possible with a government majority. Germany reinstated the debt brake in 2024 after a four-year suspension to allow for extra spending on the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis.

CDU’s sister party CSU opposes reform

However, reforming the debt brake requires a two-thirds majority in both the Bundestag and the Bundesrat.

The CDU premiers from the eastern states support the debt brake reform, while Markus Söder, the leader of Bavaria’s CSU, opposes it. Söder emphasized that “absurd extra spending” must be cut first.

Before discussing the debt brake, Söder argued that the fiscal equality of federal states must be addressed, referring to Germany’s income redistribution system.

The wealthy state of Bavaria recently had to transfer over €9 billion to other states. “This cannot go on,” Söder declared.

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