Middle East
Leaked Pentagon plan ‘Guardian’s Resolve’ details $14 billion strategy to disarm Hezbollah
A Russian researcher has publicly shared a secret plan, allegedly leaked from the US Department of Defense (Pentagon), aimed at disarming Hezbollah.
The plan, reportedly named Guardian’s Resolve, is said to include provisions such as providing financial security to organization members, purchasing their weapons, and reconstructing areas where it holds influence.
According to information obtained by the al-Akhbar newspaper from a media source, Dr. Denis Korkodinov, Executive Director of the International Center for Political Analysis and Forecasting (DIIPETES), stated that his center had obtained a document classified as “top secret” through private channels.
Korkodinov claimed the document is part of a joint US and Israeli plan to disarm Hezbollah and reshape the political and security landscape in Lebanon.
In a statement to al-Akhbar, Korkodinov said the document reveals details about the legal, military, financial, and media dimensions of the operation. However, the newspaper added that it could not verify the authenticity of the documents Korkodinov presented or the accuracy of their content.
$14 billion budget
According to Korkodinov, the plan has a budget of $14.2 billion.
Of this budget, $2.5 billion is slated to come from the Pentagon’s fiscal year 2026 foreign operations budget, $1.2 billion from re-equipping the Lebanese army, and $500 million from the “Golden Shield” program aimed at reintegrating soldiers.
The remaining $10 billion will be allocated to a reconstruction fund for South Lebanon, to be managed by the World Bank.
The allocation of 70% of the budget to economic and humanitarian aid, with only 17% designated for direct military needs, indicates a strategic shift from military solutions to focusing on socioeconomic root causes.

Military and legal dimensions
According to the plan, a joint task force named “Levant,” composed of Delta Force and Marine Corps units, will be established.
This force will be supported by 12 MQ-9 Reaper drones stationed at the Andreas Papandreou Air Base in Cyprus and 6 F-35A fighter jets from the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier in the Mediterranean.
“The plan envisions the establishment of five weapons collection centers in South Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley—in Marjayoun, Bint Jbeil, Hasbaya, Nabatieh, and Baalbek—by November 15, 2025, under the joint supervision of the Lebanese army and US special operations forces,” Korkodinov said.
Korkodinov noted that the legal basis cited includes US laws, UN Security Council Resolutions 1559 and 1701, and a presidential directive on “countering Iran’s destabilizing activities,” but he described this foundation as weak.
“The UN resolutions do not explicitly authorize the use of force by an international coalition, and an internal presidential directive cannot substitute for a UN mandate under Chapter 7,” he commented.
Economic incentives and information warfare
Under the “Golden Shield” program, a payment of $20,000 is planned for each heavy weapon surrendered and $5,000 for each individual weapon.
Additionally, promises include grants of up to $30,000 for fighters to start small businesses and a monthly salary of $500 for two years.
According to Korkodinov, the plan also includes an “information warfare” component, initially allocated $85 million, which could be increased to $150 million by the end of 2025.
This initiative aims to establish a new radio station called “Voice of New Lebanon” and organize social media campaigns targeting Hezbollah’s leadership.
Alignment with Tom Barrack’s ideas
The Russian researcher’s claims parallel the “economic solution” proposals voiced by US Ambassador to Ankara Tom Barrack during his visits to Lebanon.
Barrack argued that there is no guarantee of forcibly disarming Hezbollah and that alternatives must be offered to the organization’s fighters and supporters working in its civilian institutions.
Barrack had suggested that a major reconstruction and development program in South Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley could help distance Hezbollah’s members and its base from the organization.
Reports have also surfaced that the US is prepared to persuade Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates to make significant financial commitments in exchange for Hezbollah ceasing hostilities and dismantling its military structure.
It is also known that Barrack recently visited Tel Aviv to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, conveying the need to halt bombings and assassinations to assist the government in Lebanon. However, it was understood that Netanyahu did not respond positively to these requests.
Middle East
US waives human rights terms on $320m military aid to Egypt
The US State Department stated that it has waived human rights conditions on more than $300 million in military aid to Egypt.
The statement emphasised that this decision was taken in consideration of Cairo’s “helpful role” since the outbreak of the war against Iran.
Egypt began receiving substantial support from the US after signing a peace treaty with Israel in 1979.
Since the late 1980s, the country has received approximately $1.3 billion annually in US military assistance.
A portion of this aid is subject to conditions related to human rights and democracy, which can be waived on national security grounds.
Withholding funds, including during the administration of former US President Joe Biden, has caused tension between Cairo and Washington in the past.
A letter dated 21 September and addressed to various congressional committees, obtained by Reuters, stated that Secretary of State Marco Rubio “decided to waive the certification requirement under the fiscal year 2025 Foreign Military Financing programme for Egypt of $320 million.”
This waiver was subsequently confirmed by the State Department.
An accompanying memorandum justifying the decision stated that this portion of military aid was “essential for counterterrorism, border security, or non-proliferation programmes, or otherwise important to the national security interests of the United States.”
The memorandum, dated 4 September and bearing Rubio’s signature, stated: “Exercising this waiver authority is critical to the US-Egypt relationship and to US national security priorities, particularly given the helpful role Egypt has played in the aftermath of Operation Epic Fury.”
“Operation Epic Fury” is the designation used by the US military for the campaign launched jointly with Israel against Iran in late February.
The State Department memorandum, whose authenticity was confirmed by two sources in Washington familiar with the letter, did not provide detailed information regarding what was termed Egypt’s “helpful role”.
The State Department’s annual decision on military aid to Egypt typically covers funds allocated for the preceding fiscal year, which ends on 30 September.
A State Department spokesperson stated that Rubio waived the certification in the interest of US national security and that the US continues to cooperate with the Egyptian government across a range of issues.
In an emailed statement, the spokesperson said: “This waiver recognizes the importance of maintaining security cooperation with Egypt at a time of significant security challenges in the region.”
The Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not immediately comment on the matter.
The spillover effects of the Iran war have imposed a heavy toll on US security partners, including Egypt.
Owing to rising fuel prices and other disruptions, the Egyptian economy is passing through a difficult period.
Under the Biden administration, the US withheld portions of the annual military allocation on multiple occasions over Egypt’s human rights record.
In 2024, following the Hamas-led 7 October attack on Israel and the subsequent war in Gaza, the Biden administration set aside human rights conditions, disbursing the entire $1.3 billion allocation to Egypt for the first time in its tenure.
Human rights organisations have long accused Egypt, under the administration of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, of widespread human rights abuses, including torture and enforced disappearances.
This week, Egyptian police detained six journalists from a fact-checking and investigative media outlet, accusing them of spreading false information on behalf of the banned Muslim Brotherhood.
Egyptian authorities state that they have taken steps to address human rights issues. Sisi said stability is paramount and that the government supports human rights by working to provide for basic needs.
Middle East
Britain expands curbs on arms exports to Israel over Gaza risks
Britain has significantly broadened its military export restrictions targeting Israel, suspending or rejecting more than 80 licences for items the IDF could use in Gaza.
This figure is nearly triple the number affected when the policy was first introduced in September 2024.
United Kingdom Minister of State for the Middle East Stephen Doughty said that as part of what he described as a “tighter system” for assessing exports to Israel, more than 50 further export applications have been refused since approximately 30 licences were initially suspended.
Under the initial decision taken in September 2024, 30 of roughly 350 licences were suspended after the British government concluded there was a “clear risk” that certain military exports could be used to commit or facilitate serious violations of international humanitarian law in Gaza.
The affected equipment included components for military aircraft, drones, naval systems, and targeting gear.
Doughty said additional measures adopted this month established what he termed a “double safeguard” mechanism within the approvals process.
Export applications must now be assessed both against existing international humanitarian law criteria and in light of Britain’s position on the legality of Israel’s presence in the Palestinian territories.
“We have so far suspended or refused more than 80 licences,” Doughty said, adding that he had personally examined each licence.
Despite the wider restrictions, British-origin parts entering the international F-35 fighter jet supply chain continue to be largely exempt.
The UK government argues that preventing British-made components from entering the global F-35 pool could undermine the programme as a whole and have serious consequences for the security of the UK and its allies.
Direct exports of F-35 parts intended specifically for Israel remain suspended.
Doughty defended maintaining the supply of components via the international programme, arguing that halting it could have severe ramifications for the broader European and allied security architecture.
Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Emily Thornberry challenged this position, arguing that the issue was political rather than purely legal.
Thornberry suggested adopting an approach similar to the Dutch model, under which components entering the international supply chain could be flagged as “not intended for aircraft bound for Israel”.
The initial suspension was implemented in September 2024 by then Foreign Secretary David Lammy.
Lammy stressed at the time that the measure did not constitute an arms embargo and applied solely to items assessed as usable in military operations in Gaza.
Since then, the policy has been tightened further under Prime Minister Andy Burnham.
The expanded export restrictions follow the Burnham government’s adoption of a more confrontational policy toward the Israeli government.
Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband drew sustained applause at the Labour Party’s annual conference in Liverpool after delivering a sharp critique of the Netanyahu government’s policies and defending the decision to ban trade with Israeli settlements in the West Bank.
Accusing Israel of committing war crimes in Gaza, Miliband stated that the British government heard public outrage over the conflict, telling delegates: “We hear you. You were right.”
Middle East
Netanyahu holds secret UAE talks with Saudi Arabia and Arab officials
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with representatives of Gulf and Arab nations that lack diplomatic ties with Israel, including Saudi Arabia, during his weekend visit to the United Arab Emirates.
Sources close to the gathering told the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth on Monday that representatives from Morocco, Libya, Jordan, and Qatar also took part in the meeting.
Netanyahu made a unannounced visit to Abu Dhabi on Sunday, where he met with the country’s leader, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
According to Israeli media, this marked the first time the United Arab Emirates officially confirmed a visit by Netanyahu.
The meeting was arranged by Mossad Director Roman Goffman “at the request of Saudi Arabia, which asked for Israel’s assistance against Houthi attacks in the Red Sea region,” according to Yedioth Ahronoth.
The discussions addressed Iran and the Houthi militia. The newspaper added that the Arab states heard from Israel that “Israel is prepared to assist countries in the region with air defence systems, just as it aided the UAE during the conflict with Iran.”
Conflict in Yemen intensified in September when Ansarullah militiamen launched a rapid offensive that seized Yemen’s entire Red Sea coastline, including the vital maritime corridor of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
The Yemeni resistance also imposed a blockade on Saudi Arabia’s energy exports and staged multiple attacks against the kingdom.
Saudi Arabia reportedly sought military assistance from the US to counter Ansarullah.
Washington declined to attack the Houthis directly, but announced that it would provide intelligence and targeting support.
Reporting on the same visit, The Jerusalem Post said Netanyahu spent six hours in the UAE and that the principal subject of his discussions with MBZ was Iran.
Citing sources familiar with the matter, the newspaper added that the trip came “after Netanyahu exerted heavy pressure on the United Arab Emirates to arrange a meeting ahead of the Israeli elections on 27 October.”
Separately, the Associated Press, citing a person with direct knowledge of the meeting, reported that Netanyahu’s visit to the UAE was arranged in part to ask MBZ to deny reports that he had warned the Israeli prime minister of an impending Hamas threat prior to 7 October 2023.
According to Israeli media, Netanyahu’s office denied the AP report, issuing the following statement:
“Fake news. The visit focused solely on strengthening ties between the two countries and on regional issues.”
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