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DIPLOMACY

Mali shut the door in France’s face

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As Mali government bans the activities of “Non-Governmental Organizations” (NGOs) which receive financial support from France, German soldiers will leave Mali by the end of 2023 at the latest.

In Mali, the government’s decision to ban the activities of NGOs backed by France came after France cut off its development assistance to Mali. Paris cited Russian security company Wagner’s presence in the country as a reason for cutting aid.

Government Spokesperson Abdoulaye Maiga said France’s claims were unfounded and were made with the aim of manipulating public opinion.

“This is a ploy to deceive and manipulate national and international public opinion with the sole aim of destabilising and isolating Mali,” Maiga said of France’s statements.

Stating that this decision of France left the people of Mali in a difficult position and was used as an element of blackmail against the administrators, Maiga emphasized that on the other hand, France provided support to terrorist groups operating on the territory of Mali.

Subsequently, Maiga announced that the activities of all non-governmental organizations in Mali, which France supports or supplies with equipment and material, were banned. It has been stated that organizations working in the field of “humanitarian aid” are also within the scope of the ban.

France had to withdraw its troops

Mali’s army, which took over the French-backed government in August 2020, established a Military Transition Council that would hold power until 2025. The first task of the transitional administration was to deport the French ambassador. After that, Mali’s government announced that the cooperation agreements in the field of defence, signed in 2014, were terminated because France violated the right of sovereignty of Mali in various ways.

France, where the new administration and the public made it very clear that they do not want themselves on the territory of Mali, withdrew its military units, which it deployed 8 years ago under the pretext of fighting terrorism, last August.

As the protests of local people against the French troops intensified, the French General Staff announced that the last battalion of the Barkhane force on the Malian territory had left the border between Mali and Niger. France had nearly 2,300 soldiers in Mali.

England is withdrawing as well

Recently, England announced it would withdraw its troops from Mali earlier than planned, citing “political instability”.

James Heappey, England’s Secretary of State for Defence, announced to lawmakers in parliament that they would withdraw about 300 British troops sent to Mali as part of the United Nations (UN) Peacekeeping mission.

It’s Germany’s turn

After France and England, Germany also announced its decision to withdraw from Mali.

The German government reportedly wants to end the mandate of German troops in Mali in May 2024 as part of the United Nations (UN) Mali Multidimensional Integrated Stability Mission (MINUSMA). There are currently about 1,200 German soldiers in Mali as part of the UN MINUSMA mission.

Mali’s Minister of Defence was in Moscow

While the presence Western forces in Mali that are deployed to the country under the pretext of fighting terrorism has weakened, it is noteworthy that Bamako has improved its relations with Russia since 2020.

Mali’s Military Transition Council received five planes, one military helicopter, new military equipment and devices from Russia in January 2022. Mali’s Ministery of Defence has announced that Russian military support has strengthened Mali’s reconnaissance and offensive capabilities. In August, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and Mali’s President Assimi Goita met in Moscow and the two leaders agreed to improve co-operation. Following the meeting, the Russian side said it would provide military equipment as well as fuel, grain and fertilizer support to Mali.

Last day, Mali’s Minister of Defence Daoud Aly Mohammedine reportedly travelled to Moscow at the invitation of the Kremlin, and the two countries signed an agreement on co-operation in the field of security and intelligence.

Russia’s position in the region grows stronger

Russia’s position is becoming stronger, both on the basis of governments and among the people in Africa, where anti-Frenchism is rising. Unlike France, the Malian authorities stress that Russia respects their sovereignty and does not interfere in their internal affairs. While the West says that Russia has settled in the region and increased its influence through Wagner, cooperation with Russia in the military field does not give rise to a dependent relationship, according to regional officials. Russian flags also attract attention in popular actions that violently protest and expel France.

China and Turkey are also active

On the other hand, the ongoing instability and terror in the Sahel, despite years of France’s Operation Barkhane and the UN Peacekeeping Force in the region, calls into question the success and effectiveness of these operations. The belief that the West feeds terrorist organizations in order to maintain its influence in the region is dominant both among the people and among African leaders. African leaders aim to develop formulas based on their own military strength to ensure the security of the continent.

While China stands out as a priority partner in the field of trade and infrastructure for Sahel countries rich in bauxite, uranium, iron, gold and oil reserves, Turkey as well as Russia increases its influence in the region in the field of security and defense. Turkey’s defense and aviation exports to the continent increased more than five times from 82.9 million dollars in 2020 to 460.6 million dollars in 2021.

An era is ending…

France launched the Serval operation on 11 January 2013 on the grounds of ‘political instability in Mali and the fight against the activities of Al-Qaeda-linked groups and the purification of the northern territories of the Malian government (including the cities of Timbuktu and Gao) from radical terrorist organizations’. However, after France’s operation, the crises and conflicts deepened and spread to other countries rich in mines in the Sahel region (Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Chad, Sudan, Eritrea).

France, which launched the Serval operation in 2013, first sent 3,000 soldiers to this country and then 1,500 in August. Despite announcing that it ended the operation on 15 July 2014, France did not withdraw troops from the country, but instead deployed them to Mauritania, Chad, Niger, Burkina Faso and moved its military activities to the wider Sahel region under the name of Operation Barkhane, which began in 2014.

Macron also pursued France’s Mali and Sahel policy. But since August 2020, France faces the ‘danger‘of being excluded from the region.

Although the old colonies of France achieved their political independence in the 1960s, economic and military dependence continued with new colonialism. Today, the failure and reluctance of Western powers to ‘combat’ extremist terrorism, one of the most important security problems in the region, has brought with it the need and debate of Africa to turn to its own power. On the other hand, the search for alternative international co-operation continues, but the most important expectation is that these alternative collaborations do not lead to ‘new colonialism’.

DIPLOMACY

Ukraine, US, Israel in talks to send up to eight Patriot systems to Ukraine

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The US, Israel and Ukraine are in talks to supply Kiev with up to eight Patriot air defence systems to significantly improve its ability to counter Russian air strikes.

According to the Financial Times (FT), the deal, which has yet to be finalised, would see the Patriot systems shipped from Israel to the US before being delivered to Ukraine.

The outlines of the deal, which would mark a shift in Israel’s relationship with Moscow, have been discussed between ministers and senior officials from the three countries, according to five people familiar with the negotiations.

Israel announced in April that it would retire eight Patriot batteries with more than 30 years of service and replace them with more advanced systems.

However, the batteries used in the Gaza war have not yet been decommissioned amid fears that tensions with Hezbollah in the north could escalate into a full-scale war.

If such a transfer were to take place, it would represent a significant change in Ukraine’s defence capabilities. The country currently has at least four Patriot systems supplied by both the United States and Germany.

Ukraine has frequently asked its Western allies to supply it with air defence systems, particularly US-made Patriots.

Last week, the US announced that it was halting deliveries of Patriot interceptors to other countries in order to prioritise deliveries to Ukraine.

Israel has been wary of taking sides in Ukraine because of Moscow’s influence in Syria.

But according to the FT, US officials have tried to persuade Benjamin Netanyahu’s government that Russia’s increasingly close ties with Iran, particularly in the area of military cooperation, are a more pressing concern.

However, the sources said that while the transfer of all eight systems was being discussed, not all of them might be sent to Ukraine. Three people familiar with the discussions said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba had held talks on the issue with his US counterpart, Antony Blinken, in recent weeks.

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan has also met at least twice with the Ukrainian president’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, the three sources said.

Kuleba did not confirm the talks, but told the FT: “Ukraine continues to work with various countries around the world to acquire additional Patriot systems. We once again call on all countries that have such systems to provide them to Ukraine,” he added.

In addition to the US-Ukraine talks, a person familiar with the diplomatic situation said there were also direct talks between Tel Aviv and Kiev on the transfer of Patriots.

Israel’s M901 PAC-2 batteries are older than most of the Patriot systems currently in Ukraine. But military analysts say the older model is still fully compatible with the newer ones.

According to a person familiar with the size of Israel’s arsenal, Tel Aviv has plenty of interceptors for use with these batteries, which Kiev also needs.

Analysts also said that Israel’s older interceptors have a longer range and a larger warhead than the new PAC-3 model.

Former officials and analysts said the Israeli systems would most likely be sold back to the United States, which could send them to Ukraine.

But they added that the real question was whether Tel Aviv was prepared to alienate its one-time ally Russia, despite Moscow’s increasingly close relationship with Tehran.

Israel has previously rejected Ukrainian requests for air defence systems. It also has an agreement with Russia that gives Israeli jets access to Syrian airspace.

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Polish president meets Xi Jinping in China

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Polish President Andrzej Duda met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Saturday as part of a state visit. The two leaders attended a signing ceremony in Beijing on Monday, CGTN reported.

“Bilateral exchanges and cooperation have expanded and deepened in all fields, benefiting the people of both countries. China will work with Poland to uphold the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, fulfil the commitments made at the time of the establishment of diplomatic relations, and take the relationship to greater heights,” Xi said.

The Polish leader said he had raised Russia’s war in Ukraine and the crisis on Poland’s border with Belarus during the talks, which also focused on developing economic ties.

Duda later said: “Thanks to the fact that President [Xi] called me his friend, which is a great honour for me, I am very happy to be able to contribute to the development of [Polish-Chinese] relations together with the president.”

Noting that his second and final term in office will end next year, Duda said he “hopes that these relations will be built in the future…[and] will always be based on common ideals…[and] mutual respect”.

Experts believe that this visit, which will last until Wednesday, will help strengthen China-Poland relations and increase economic cooperation between the two countries.

Duda and his wife Agata Kornhauser-Duda arrived in Beijing on Saturday at the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping. Duda and his wife were met at the airport by Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Deng Li and other officials, China Central Television reported.

Duda is expected to ask for visa exemptions for Poles travelling to China and seek ways to increase Polish exports to China to balance trade relations.

Polish state statistics reported that 13.9 per cent of the country’s imports came from China last year, while Polish exports to China were only a fraction of that amount.

A number of trade agreements are expected to be signed during the visit.

On Wednesday, Duda will fly to the financial centre of Shanghai to attend the Polish-Chinese Business Forum.

During his visit, Xi will hold talks with Duda to map out the future development of China-Poland relations, have in-depth exchanges on issues of common concern and jointly attend the signing ceremony of cooperation documents, Lin Jian, a Foreign Ministry spokesman, said at a routine press briefing last Thursday.

China is willing to work with Poland to take this visit as an opportunity to deepen political mutual trust, expand exchanges and cooperation in various fields, jointly pioneer high-quality cooperation on the Belt and Road Initiative and China’s cooperation with Central and Eastern European countries, and continuously enrich the connotation of the China-Poland comprehensive strategic partnership, Lin said.

Cui Hongjian, a professor with the Academy of Regional and Global Governance at Beijing Foreign Studies University, told the Global Times on Sunday that China’s relations with Central and Eastern Europe have remained stable this year, and Poland sees this visit as a way to boost cooperation in both political and economic fields.

Cui said strengthening cooperation with China would not only benefit Poland’s economy, but also help Warsaw increase its influence within the EU. Although Poland and the United States have been in close contact in recent years, Duda’s visit shows that the Eastern European country is seeking balanced diplomacy to build close ties with China as well, Cui said.

Chinese experts also said that while Beijing and Brussels have a complex relationship and the EU has threatened to launch a potential trade war against China, Poland could play a positive role in negotiating bilateral relations between China and the bloc.

Janusz Piechocinski, Poland’s former deputy prime minister, said in an interview with the Global Times: “China will remain a powerful engine of the global economy. Trade wars with China could reduce demand and limit opportunities for trade expansion. We need more cooperation and less confrontation, a more practical dialogue aimed at solving problems rather than exacerbating them through protectionist measures.

Experts expect the Russia-Ukraine crisis to be on the agenda during Duda’s visit, as Poland has thrown its full weight behind Ukraine. Although China’s position on the Ukraine crisis differs from Poland’s, Beijing has been in close contact with Warsaw since the beginning of the crisis. In March this year, Li Hui, the Chinese government’s special representative for Eurasian affairs, embarked on a second round of shuttle diplomacy to find a political solution to the Ukrainian crisis, visiting Poland in the process.

This is Duda’s third visit to China as President of Poland. The first was in November 2015, after which he became the only elected EU leader to attend the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics in February 2022. Xi also visited Poland in 2016.

“I try to maintain friendly relations with China, Poland has always had good relations with China and I want this to continue,” Duda said in an interview with private Radio Zet on Friday.

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DIPLOMACY

American troops begin withdrawal from Niger

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Following the decision by Niger’s military government to expel US forces from the country, the withdrawal of US troops serving in the country and the process of moving their equipment has officially begun.

According to the AA report, which cites local sources, US troops are being withdrawn from the country following the termination of the military agreement that allowed military and civilian personnel from the US Department of Defense to serve in Niger. It was learnt that 269 soldiers and tonnes of equipment had been sent to the US in the first phase.

Senior US officials had travelled to Niger in March to ensure that the US would maintain its base in the country despite the suspension of military and development aid to Niger’s coup government. But after three days of waiting, the US delegation left without meeting the country’s military commander, General Abdurrahmane Tchiani, and on 17 March Niger announced the end of the military partnership Washington had come to secure and demanded that US troops leave the country immediately.

It was then announced that the US would leave the country completely by mid-September.

There are around 1000 US troops in Niger. Near the city of Agadez, at the southern end of the Sahara, there is a drone base called ‘Niger Air Base 201’.

Niger 201 is the second largest base in Africa after the permanent base in Djibouti, where the US also conducts drone operations.

Built and funded by the US and owned by the Nigerian army, the base has been operational since 2019 and is equipped with high-tech satellite communications systems.

Niger 201, which is leased from the Niger state for 10 years, is considered the largest and most expensive UAV base in the US.

The US, which spent $110 million on its construction and $30 million on its annual maintenance, uses the base as its main intelligence and surveillance centre in the Sahel.

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