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Mali shut the door in France’s face

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As Mali government bans the activities of “Non-Governmental Organizations” (NGOs) which receive financial support from France, German soldiers will leave Mali by the end of 2023 at the latest.

In Mali, the government’s decision to ban the activities of NGOs backed by France came after France cut off its development assistance to Mali. Paris cited Russian security company Wagner’s presence in the country as a reason for cutting aid.

Government Spokesperson Abdoulaye Maiga said France’s claims were unfounded and were made with the aim of manipulating public opinion.

“This is a ploy to deceive and manipulate national and international public opinion with the sole aim of destabilising and isolating Mali,” Maiga said of France’s statements.

Stating that this decision of France left the people of Mali in a difficult position and was used as an element of blackmail against the administrators, Maiga emphasized that on the other hand, France provided support to terrorist groups operating on the territory of Mali.

Subsequently, Maiga announced that the activities of all non-governmental organizations in Mali, which France supports or supplies with equipment and material, were banned. It has been stated that organizations working in the field of “humanitarian aid” are also within the scope of the ban.

France had to withdraw its troops

Mali’s army, which took over the French-backed government in August 2020, established a Military Transition Council that would hold power until 2025. The first task of the transitional administration was to deport the French ambassador. After that, Mali’s government announced that the cooperation agreements in the field of defence, signed in 2014, were terminated because France violated the right of sovereignty of Mali in various ways.

France, where the new administration and the public made it very clear that they do not want themselves on the territory of Mali, withdrew its military units, which it deployed 8 years ago under the pretext of fighting terrorism, last August.

As the protests of local people against the French troops intensified, the French General Staff announced that the last battalion of the Barkhane force on the Malian territory had left the border between Mali and Niger. France had nearly 2,300 soldiers in Mali.

England is withdrawing as well

Recently, England announced it would withdraw its troops from Mali earlier than planned, citing “political instability”.

James Heappey, England’s Secretary of State for Defence, announced to lawmakers in parliament that they would withdraw about 300 British troops sent to Mali as part of the United Nations (UN) Peacekeeping mission.

It’s Germany’s turn

After France and England, Germany also announced its decision to withdraw from Mali.

The German government reportedly wants to end the mandate of German troops in Mali in May 2024 as part of the United Nations (UN) Mali Multidimensional Integrated Stability Mission (MINUSMA). There are currently about 1,200 German soldiers in Mali as part of the UN MINUSMA mission.

Mali’s Minister of Defence was in Moscow

While the presence Western forces in Mali that are deployed to the country under the pretext of fighting terrorism has weakened, it is noteworthy that Bamako has improved its relations with Russia since 2020.

Mali’s Military Transition Council received five planes, one military helicopter, new military equipment and devices from Russia in January 2022. Mali’s Ministery of Defence has announced that Russian military support has strengthened Mali’s reconnaissance and offensive capabilities. In August, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and Mali’s President Assimi Goita met in Moscow and the two leaders agreed to improve co-operation. Following the meeting, the Russian side said it would provide military equipment as well as fuel, grain and fertilizer support to Mali.

Last day, Mali’s Minister of Defence Daoud Aly Mohammedine reportedly travelled to Moscow at the invitation of the Kremlin, and the two countries signed an agreement on co-operation in the field of security and intelligence.

Russia’s position in the region grows stronger

Russia’s position is becoming stronger, both on the basis of governments and among the people in Africa, where anti-Frenchism is rising. Unlike France, the Malian authorities stress that Russia respects their sovereignty and does not interfere in their internal affairs. While the West says that Russia has settled in the region and increased its influence through Wagner, cooperation with Russia in the military field does not give rise to a dependent relationship, according to regional officials. Russian flags also attract attention in popular actions that violently protest and expel France.

China and Turkey are also active

On the other hand, the ongoing instability and terror in the Sahel, despite years of France’s Operation Barkhane and the UN Peacekeeping Force in the region, calls into question the success and effectiveness of these operations. The belief that the West feeds terrorist organizations in order to maintain its influence in the region is dominant both among the people and among African leaders. African leaders aim to develop formulas based on their own military strength to ensure the security of the continent.

While China stands out as a priority partner in the field of trade and infrastructure for Sahel countries rich in bauxite, uranium, iron, gold and oil reserves, Turkey as well as Russia increases its influence in the region in the field of security and defense. Turkey’s defense and aviation exports to the continent increased more than five times from 82.9 million dollars in 2020 to 460.6 million dollars in 2021.

An era is ending…

France launched the Serval operation on 11 January 2013 on the grounds of ‘political instability in Mali and the fight against the activities of Al-Qaeda-linked groups and the purification of the northern territories of the Malian government (including the cities of Timbuktu and Gao) from radical terrorist organizations’. However, after France’s operation, the crises and conflicts deepened and spread to other countries rich in mines in the Sahel region (Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Chad, Sudan, Eritrea).

France, which launched the Serval operation in 2013, first sent 3,000 soldiers to this country and then 1,500 in August. Despite announcing that it ended the operation on 15 July 2014, France did not withdraw troops from the country, but instead deployed them to Mauritania, Chad, Niger, Burkina Faso and moved its military activities to the wider Sahel region under the name of Operation Barkhane, which began in 2014.

Macron also pursued France’s Mali and Sahel policy. But since August 2020, France faces the ‘danger‘of being excluded from the region.

Although the old colonies of France achieved their political independence in the 1960s, economic and military dependence continued with new colonialism. Today, the failure and reluctance of Western powers to ‘combat’ extremist terrorism, one of the most important security problems in the region, has brought with it the need and debate of Africa to turn to its own power. On the other hand, the search for alternative international co-operation continues, but the most important expectation is that these alternative collaborations do not lead to ‘new colonialism’.

DIPLOMACY

EU, Mercosur aim to finalize trade deal by early December

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The European Commission and Mercosur countries are working to complete negotiations on a long-anticipated trade deal by early December, sources familiar with the discussions told POLITICO.

Farmers are expected to rally against the deal in Brussels on Wednesday, with additional protests in France later in the week.

The upcoming G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro was initially seen as the ideal opportunity to finalize the agreement, which has been under negotiation for nearly 25 years.

“All the cards are on the table,” said one person familiar with the EU-Mercosur talks. “They want to ensure a near-finalized deal, so Ursula [von der Leyen] doesn’t make the trip in vain.” However, the signing of the agreement might be delayed over concerns that China could overshadow the summit.

A European Commission official confirmed that face-to-face talks are scheduled for the week of November 25 in Brazil to resolve any outstanding issues. While the official refrained from specifying a completion date, they emphasized that the Mercosur nations—Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, and new member Bolivia—are pushing to sign the agreement promptly.

Uruguay is set to host the Mercosur summit from December 2–4, with Argentina, under newly elected Javier Milei, assuming the bloc’s presidency.

China concerns accelerate EU-Mercosur deal timeline

This “cows-for-cars” trade deal would eliminate trade barriers and establish a common market encompassing around 800 million people, representing 20% of global GDP. For European countries, particularly Germany, this agreement is viewed as overdue, especially given China’s expanding economic footprint in South America, where European firms are increasingly being sidelined.

“If we don’t reach a trade agreement with [Mercosur], China will inevitably fill the void,” remarked Kaja Kallas, the EU’s new foreign minister, on Tuesday. Citing data, she added that Chinese investment in Latin America surged 34-fold between 2020 and 2022.

Those familiar with the negotiations indicated that certain issues remain unresolved, including public procurement regulations, environmental provisions, and the legal structure of the agreement.

Mercosur nations are particularly keen on securing more flexibility from the EU and additional time for local firms to compete with European counterparts. Brazil has also expressed a desire to protect its domestic automotive industry from EU imports, especially electric vehicles.

France’s reluctance and Macron’s challenges

French Trade Minister Sophie Primas recently stated to POLITICO that Mercosur countries are eager to finalize the deal before the Mercosur summit. However, Primas remains skeptical that the agreement will enable the EU to effectively counter China’s influence in Latin America.

Amid concerns over a potential surge in agricultural imports, France successfully blocked the Mercosur negotiations in January, just as they were nearing completion. This time, however, President Emmanuel Macron faces a tougher challenge, especially after recent electoral setbacks in the European Parliament and National Assembly.

In a recent letter published in Le Monde, over 600 French MPs from both parliamentary chambers urged von der Leyen not to proceed with the deal, citing unmet democratic, economic, environmental, and social standards for an agreement with Mercosur.

Paris falls short of blocking coalition

Despite recent efforts to secure opposition, Paris is unlikely to gather the qualified minority—representing at least 35% of the EU population—needed to block the deal when it comes to a vote among EU member states.

France has also launched a diplomatic campaign to persuade other EU nations to oppose the agreement. However, two diplomats with direct knowledge report that Italy has not been swayed.

Italy remains cautious in supporting the deal, wary of the potential for political fallout like that seen in France.

‘France’s opposition is symbolic; the battle is lost’

Over the weekend, Macron traveled to Argentina to meet with Milei ahead of the G20 summit in Brazil. Meanwhile, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is scheduled to visit Buenos Aires on November 20.

Although French ministers have vehemently opposed the deal and increased efforts to build a blocking minority, Prime Minister Michel Barnier has kept a low profile. Barnier is expected to meet with von der Leyen and EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis in Brussels today (November 13) and will likely address the Mercosur agreement, which he opposes in its current form.

Critics argue that France’s resistance is mostly symbolic, and that Paris has already lost this battle.

For years, France has insisted on incorporating the Paris Agreement and enacting legally binding deforestation commitments as part of the Mercosur deal. In response, the European Commission has indicated its intent to support French demands in the final phase of negotiations, although Mercosur countries have repeatedly signaled their resistance to any form of sanctions.

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Japan, UK to launch bilateral economic dialogue ahead of potential Trump tariffs

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Japan and the UK are set to initiate an economic version of the “two plus two” dialogue—a regular meeting between foreign and trade ministers—due to rising concerns about possible tariffs from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his British counterpart, Keir Starmer, are scheduled to meet in Rio de Janeiro during the upcoming G20 Summit on Monday, November 18. According to officials from both governments, the goal is to establish a bilateral economic dialogue.

This development follows Trump’s recent election victory and his anticipated return to the White House in January. During his campaign, Trump pledged to impose tariffs of 60% on imports from China and 10-20% on imports from other nations, including Japan and the UK.

The Japan-UK economic dialogue aims to strengthen cooperation in upholding the international economic order, including principles of free trade.

Topics at the meeting will cover a wide range of strategic and geopolitical issues. Both partners are expected to explore ways to initiate a trade dialogue with the U.S. to prevent a potential tariff hike. Sources indicate that countermeasures may also be on the table if U.S. import tariffs do increase.

In 2023, 20% of Japan’s exports and 15% of the UK’s exports were destined for the U.S., underscoring the potential economic impact of increased tariffs.

Additionally, the UK hopes that a strengthened partnership with Japan can help offset its reduced influence since leaving the European Union (EU) in 2020.

During the previous Trump administration, the EU (of which the UK was then a member) imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. steel and motorcycles in response to Washington’s high import duties.

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Azerbaijan plans to boost oil and gas production as it hosts COP29

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The 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has commenced in Baku, Azerbaijan’s capital. As the host nation, Azerbaijan is also looking to expand its fossil fuel production, positioning itself at the intersection of climate policy and energy expansion.

According to the Financial Times, Azerbaijan’s state oil and gas company SOCAR (State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic) is set to increase production of new fossil fuel sources during the COP29 summit. The summit, a key gathering on global climate change, underscores a paradox for Azerbaijan: pledging climate action while pursuing expanded oil and gas output.

A report by campaign group Global Witness, which analyzed data from independent consultancy Rystad Energy, estimates that 44% of SOCAR’s production will be new oil and gas by 2050—the second-highest proportion among national oil companies globally. This report examined production projections based on both developed and undeveloped fields as well as undiscovered fossil fuel reserves.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), new long-term oil and gas projects conflict with the goal of limiting the average global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels—the target set by the Paris Agreement. This expansion aligns Azerbaijan with Europe’s aim to diversify energy sources, especially given the EU’s push to replace Russian gas following the Ukraine conflict.

Meanwhile, SOCAR has increased production in recent years as Europe seeks to replace Russian natural gas with resources from other nations, including Azerbaijan. This has drawn criticism, particularly as Azerbaijan—through Muhtar Babayev, COP29 President and Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources—continues to call for limiting global warming to 1.5°C.

At COP28 last year in Dubai, almost 200 nations committed to phasing out fossil fuels by mid-century. Nevertheless, Azerbaijan has signed multiple oil and gas deals since securing COP29 hosting rights, including SOCAR’s first international investment in upstream oil and gas—a $468 million stake in UAE gas projects.

“Azerbaijan is Europe’s strategic supplier of natural gas and is expanding capacity to meet European energy demands after the 2022 supply disruptions,” a COP29 spokesperson stated. Additionally, Azerbaijan is “expanding its renewable energy exports to serve the region and European markets,” he added. SOCAR did not respond to requests for comment.

Azerbaijan’s COP presidency has sparked criticism, echoing concerns raised during the UAE’s COP28 role. Richard Kinley, former executive secretary of the UN climate panel, expressed disappointment: “It is deeply disturbing that they can’t even seem to draw a ‘sanitary cordon’ around the COP presidency to prevent fossil fuel interests from undermining its purpose.”

Danish Climate Minister Lars Aagaard—attending COP29—remarked that Azerbaijan’s energy strategy also includes renewable energy initiatives, with Ørsted, a prominent wind energy company, present at the summit. However, European diplomats told the Financial Times that Azerbaijani officials have raised gas deal discussions alongside climate negotiations, mainly in relation to replacing Russian gas supplies transiting through Ukraine, with this contract ending soon.

According to Bloomberg, companies in Hungary and Slovakia are finalizing a deal with Azerbaijan to substitute gas from the Ukrainian pipeline. Energy analysts have cautioned that this agreement could mask continued Russian gas flows. Additionally, a recent report from Chatham House highlighted Azerbaijan’s strategy to secure long-term European gas supply agreements.

“By positioning itself at the heart of the multilateral climate process, the Azerbaijani government may seek to shape the global energy transition dialogue to ensure its oil and gas reserves remain profitable as long as possible,” the report suggests.

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