According to a draft “White Paper” on defense obtained by POLITICO, the EU aims to launch a significant project to bolster its defense industry. This initiative is intended to “deter Russia” and “support Ukraine” as the US reduces its presence on the continent.

“The reconstruction of European defense requires a major investment over a long period,” the draft states.

The document, prepared by EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius and EU Chief Diplomat Kaja Kallas, is expected to be presented to EU leaders next week. It remains subject to change before publication.

Key elements of the new EU policy include supporting arms production within the bloc and in “like-minded third-country companies,” promoting joint arms purchases, facilitating the financing of defense projects, and focusing on critical areas where the bloc has capacity gaps—such as air defense and military mobility. Additionally, it aims to reduce bureaucracy related to defense investments.

Russia’s actions are cited as the driving force behind this new policy. The draft states, “Russia is an existential threat to the Union. Given its track record of invading its neighbors and its current expansionist policies, the need to deter Russian armed aggression will continue even after a just and lasting peace agreement with Ukraine.”

Therefore, the immediate priority is “ensuring that Ukraine can continue to fend off Russian attacks.”

“Especially now that the US is suspending its support, without a significant amount of additional military resources, it will not be possible for Ukraine to negotiate a just and lasting peace in a strong position,” the draft says.

The shift in US policy towards Ukraine, Europe, and NATO is evident throughout the 20-page document. “Europe cannot rely on the US security guarantee and must significantly increase its contribution to protect NATO,” it asserts.

However, it emphasizes that “NATO remains the cornerstone of collective defense in Europe.”

The document notes Europe’s dependence on American military capabilities, creating a risk that the US “may reconsider its approach and decide to restrict or even stop the use of these supports.”

Rebuilding the EU’s military-industrial complex means the bloc “should consider introducing a European preference for public procurement for strategic defense-related sectors and technologies.”

It also highlights the need for “cooperative procurement” to address the bloc’s fragmented defense market and provide countries with the financial means to secure advantageous deals. The European Commission could act as a central purchasing body for member states.

Seven key areas for priority investments are identified: air and missile defense; artillery systems; ammunition and missiles; drones and anti-drone systems; military mobility; artificial intelligence, quantum, cyber, and electronic warfare; and strategic enablers, combat capabilities, and critical infrastructure protection.

The document assures that member states will remain “in the driver’s seat”—a sensitive point for capitals concerned about Brussels interfering with national sovereignty.

“Member States are responsible for their own armed forces, from doctrine development to deployment. The radically changing strategic context, coupled with acute capability deficiencies of the Member States, requires much greater cooperation among Member States to rebuild their defenses,” it states.

Initial steps include member states approving the proposed relaxation of the bloc’s fiscal rules to facilitate increased defense spending, agreeing to cooperate on 35% of defense spending, approving the €1.5 billion European Defence Industry Programme, and agreeing on critical capability areas with NATO.

The document also outlines key measures such as providing 1.5 million artillery shells and air defense systems to aid Ukraine, continuing to train Ukrainian troops, placing orders with the Ukrainian defense industry, linking Ukraine more closely to EU military financing plans, and extending the bloc’s military mobility corridors to include Ukraine.

The market value of arms manufacturer Rheinmetall surpassed that of automotive giant Volkswagen Group on Thursday, marking a significant shift in Germany’s economy from automotive to defense.

As of 4:00 PM yesterday, Rheinmetall’s market value was 55.7 billion euros, while Volkswagen’s stood at 54.4 billion euros.

Since US President Donald Trump took office in January, Rheinmetall’s value, along with that of many other major European defense companies, has more than tripled. Meanwhile, US-based competitors have seen their stock prices fall due to concerns that Trump’s unpredictable policies might harm American arms exports.

VW and Rheinmetall are moving in different directions. The arms manufacturer is benefiting from the increase in defense spending in Europe, which is rearming on the grounds of deterring Russia, supporting Ukraine, and ensuring its security, due to fears that Trump will withdraw from the Continent. Volkswagen, on the other hand, is struggling with challenges caused by problems in China, Trump’s tariffs, and the turbulent transition to electric vehicles.

Automobiles powered Germany’s post-World War II recovery, making it the economic powerhouse of the EU and allowing defense to take a back seat, especially after the end of the Cold War.

Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger stated on Wednesday, while announcing the company’s record earnings, “A period of rearmament has begun in Europe that will demand a lot from all of us. This also brings us, as Rheinmetall, growth prospects for the coming years that we have never experienced before.”

As a sign of the transition process, Volkswagen plans to end production at its Osnabrück plant, and Papperger said on Wednesday that the factory would be “very suitable” as a potential tank factory.

“One thing is clear: before building a new tank factory in Germany, we will definitely look at this,” Papperger said.

In the months preceding the early election in Germany in February, the problems of the automotive sector occupied the public agenda, while security concerns are shifting attention and funding towards defense.

Friedrich Merz, who is expected to be Germany’s new chancellor, wants to exempt defense spending from the restrictions of the country’s debt brake.

Explaining the strategic change, Merz said, “Given the threats to our freedom and peace on our continent, what is necessary must now also apply to our defense.”

VW Group CEO Oliver Blume also acknowledged this change during Tuesday’s balance sheet briefing. “We need to invest more to be safe again,” Blume said.

The VW official added that no private meeting had yet taken place, but the company was ready to advise other manufacturers on defense production, a role it has played before.

VW produced armored vehicles for the Nazis in World War II. Its truck transport subsidiary, MAN Truck & Bus, is affiliated with Rheinmetall through a joint venture to produce logistics vehicles for the army.

Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, and Poland are seeking to reduce regulations on weapons manufacturers to help them increase production.

“We are calling for the defense industry to no longer be seen as just another industry,” French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu told reporters on Wednesday in Paris, following a meeting with defense ministers in the so-called E5 format.

He also addressed European Commission Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius, who was present at the meeting, saying that the European Commission has a role to play here.

The E5 is meeting for the third time since the format was created following the re-election of US President Donald Trump in November.

Wednesday’s meeting, where ministers discussed Ukraine as well as European defense, came immediately after 37 chiefs of staff from the EU, NATO, and beyond (excluding the US) met on Tuesday to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine.

The meeting also follows an American proposal, accepted by Kyiv, which envisages a 30-day ceasefire in the war-torn country if Russia accepts it.

In a joint statement after the meeting, the five ministers called for an assessment of EU regulations and national laws that “could hinder or slow down” arms production and supply.

“We need to reduce bureaucracy within the EU to make practical progress for European defense,” Guido Crosetto of Italy told reporters.

Boris Pistorius of Germany echoed this sentiment, stating, “We want to deregulate, both at the European level and in our nation-states.”

While Tuesday’s meeting of military chiefs seemed like an effort to build a new security architecture without the Americans, on Wednesday the defense ministers from Italy, Britain, and Poland were keen to emphasize the importance of the transatlantic bond.

When asked about his country’s dependence on the American-made F-35 fighter jet, Crosetto said, “We do not want to stop our commercial relationship with the US, no one in Europe wants to be enemies with the US. We cannot break the Western alliance for the sake of industrial autonomy.”

Polish Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz agreed, saying he wanted to “strengthen the transatlantic relationship,” adding that for now, Europe’s arms industry does not have the same production capacity as the US.

Germany, however, seemed more prepared to start thinking about a future with less US involvement.

Last month, Pistorius revealed that he had asked his US counterpart, Pete Hegseth, to “develop a roadmap to prevent gaps in capabilities, gradually regulate burden-sharing, and know who is doing what” if the US shifts some of its forces to the Indo-Pacific region.

Regardless of the alliance with the US, all countries pledged to deepen European industrial cooperation in areas such as ammunition, air defense, and early warning systems.

On the other hand, all defense ministers emphasized that when it comes to the war in Ukraine, the ball is in Russia’s court and it should accept the ceasefire on the table.

Meanwhile, a ‘coalition of the willing’ consisting of 15 countries will reportedly begin preparations for different scenarios.

According to Lecornu, the 15 countries, led by France and the United Kingdom, will begin planning next week, but Lecornu did not provide details on the security guarantees or a list of the 15 countries.