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MIDDLE EAST

Netanyahu dampens prospects for ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has poured cold water on the likelihood of ceasefires in Lebanon and Gaza, arguing that the current conditions do not meet Israel’s demands and that an agreement can only be reached on terms achievable through continued conflict.

Optimistic reports of imminent ceasefires in Lebanon and Gaza quickly faded.

Meanwhile, three senior U.S. officials have arrived in the region: Amos Hochstein, senior adviser to President Joe Biden on Lebanon; Brett McGurk, the Middle East adviser (in Israel); and CIA Director William Burns (in Egypt).

Netanyahu’s position on ceasefire conditions

Netanyahu has reiterated that any agreement with Lebanon must ensure Israel’s freedom of action in the region. In a meeting with Hochstein and McGurk, he stated, “What matters is not the various articles of the agreement or numbers like 1701 or 1556, but Israel’s ability and determination to implement the agreement in a way that allows our people to return home safely and eliminates threats from Lebanon.”

Lebanon’s interim Prime Minister Najib Mikati recently expressed hopes for a ceasefire with Israel, following reports in Israeli media of a draft agreement for a 60-day truce with Hezbollah. This draft, reportedly leaked from Washington, stated that Israel would withdraw its forces from Lebanon within the first week of the ceasefire.

However, White House National Security spokesman Sean Savett tempered expectations, saying, “Many reports and drafts circulating do not reflect the current stage of the negotiations.”

Israeli military’s perspective on the conflict

A senior Israeli general staff official criticized Netanyahu’s stance, telling the Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper, “It is difficult to know what he is waiting for or what he truly wants. Netanyahu’s approach gives the impression that he wants to buy time, but time is not always on our side and could lead to an uncertain war of attrition.”

The official noted that ending the conflict would require more than occupying villages in southern Lebanon, stating, “Even if the Israeli army does not launch a ground operation to dismantle Hezbollah forces and enable the return of residents to northern towns, it must still escalate its operations to compel Hezbollah and the Lebanese government to negotiate in Israel’s favor if a permanent agreement remains out of reach.”

Military analyst Yossi Yehoshua from Yediot Aharonot warned that if the conflict drags on, Israeli forces may have to deepen their operations beyond the initial plan, potentially establishing a security belt in the north to protect against prolonged hostilities.

After a month of ground fighting, five Israeli divisions and a reserve brigade have struggled to make significant progress in southern Lebanon, with more than 50,000 troops deployed but failing to capture a single village.

In U.S.-brokered negotiations, Israel has demanded that the Lebanese army and UNIFIL monitor any ceasefire and that the Lebanese army dismantle Hezbollah’s military infrastructure in the south. However, the Israeli government is doubtful Lebanon will accept these terms, reducing optimism for Hochstein’s success in this round of talks.

MIDDLE EAST

Netanyahu government moves to dismiss Attorney General

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The Israeli government unanimously declared “no confidence” in Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara during its cabinet meeting on Sunday. This step officially initiates the process of Baharav-Miara’s dismissal, marking a first in the country’s history.

Justice Minister Yariv Levin accused the Attorney General of obstructing government policies and argued that cooperation had become impossible due to “long-standing fundamental disagreements” between them.

Baharav-Miara’s response was swift. Stating that the government was trying to place itself above the law, the Attorney General said, “They are seeking unlimited power; an unchecked administration is being targeted.”

The attempt to dismiss Baharav-Miara, along with the dismissal of Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar and discussions on judicial reform, is seen as a new crisis regarding the independence of the judiciary.

The process has been initiated despite many legally required steps. According to the current cabinet decision, the dismissal file must first be sent to a special five-member committee, and then the attorney general must be given the right to defend herself. However, this commission has not yet been formed.

It was leaked to the press that some ministers made sarcastic comments about Baharav-Miara during the cabinet meeting. Economy Minister Nir Barkat said, “She probably attended a meeting of another government,” while Environment Minister Idit Silman said, “She was a secretary in the previous government, now she acts like an opposition leader.”

Baharav-Miara, who did not attend the meeting, accused the government in her letter of trying to evade legal oversight, saying, “This initiative aims to weaken the judiciary and intimidate loyal public servants.”

Opposition leader Yair Lapid called the attempt to dismiss the Attorney General “illegal,” stating, “Netanyahu first wants to dismiss his investigator, and now his prosecutor. Gali Baharav-Miara is an honest and competent attorney general. That’s precisely why she’s a target. This is illegal, this is corruption. They will not succeed.”

National Unity Party leader Benny Gantz claimed that the government’s move was motivated by a law that would grant military service exemptions to ultra-Orthodox Jews: “Netanyahu wants an attorney general who will bypass the Supreme Court and disregard the reserve soldiers joining the army. We are all paying the price.”

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Shin Bet Director dismissed amid ‘Qatargate’ probe

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The Israeli government has unanimously dismissed Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar. Bar stated that the real intention behind his dismissal was to “continue ceasefire negotiations without reaching an agreement.” Referencing the Qatargate scandal investigated by Shin Bet, Bar said his dismissal “smells of foreign interests and an unprecedented conflict of interest.”

In a first for Israel, the director of Shin Bet, considered an independent institution, was dismissed by a cabinet decision. Bar did not attend the meeting where the dismissal was to be voted on, despite being summoned, but sent a letter to the ministers.

In his letter, Bar refuted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s claim that there was a trust issue between them, which Netanyahu cited as the reason for the dismissal. Bar stated, “There has been intense and effective cooperation between Shin Bet under my leadership and the Prime Minister.”

Arguing that the Shin Bet Director should be loyal to the people, not the Prime Minister, Bar said, “Netanyahu could not support the reasons he put forward for my dismissal. Despite my request, no concrete examples were provided.”

Bar argued that Netanyahu’s insistence on the lack of trust between them was not a valid basis, but that his real intention was to continue ceasefire negotiations in Gaza without reaching an agreement.

Bar stated that Netanyahu’s decision to exclude him and Mossad Chief David Barnea from the ceasefire and prisoner exchange negotiations harmed the delegation and prevented any progress in the release of prisoners.

Bar added that Netanyahu is taking steps that will “weaken the country both internally and against its enemies.”

According to Bar, the decision is driven by “foreign interests and conflict of interest.”

Shin Bet Director Bar also referred to the “Qatargate” investigation in Israel, conducted by Shin Bet, regarding allegations that Netanyahu’s close advisors received money from Qatar through shell companies.

Bar stated, “Important investigative steps are being taken. Following the disruption of these steps by a sudden and hasty dismissal based on completely unfounded allegations, there is a smell of foreign interests and an unprecedented conflict of interest.”

He warned that the dismissal, initiated by Prime Minister Netanyahu, sends a dangerous message to those under investigation and could jeopardize the outcome of the investigation.

The government’s decision to dismiss the Shin Bet Director has been taken to the High Court.

The Movement for Quality Government requested the decision be halted in a petition to the High Court.

The decision also drew a swift reaction from the opposition. Yisrael Beytenu party leader Avigdor Liberman said, “By firing Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar, Netanyahu is doing exactly what our enemies dream of.”

The main opposition leader Yair Lapid says that the government dismissed Bar “for one reason only”: to stop the Qatargate investigation.

Lapid stated, “The opposition parties will jointly object to this reckless move to legitimize the infiltration of a hostile state into the prime minister’s office.”

The “Qatargate” discussions began with allegations that millions of dollars were taken from Qatar and transferred to Netanyahu’s election campaign.

These allegations turned into an investigation conducted by Shin Bet, with Prime Minister Netanyahu’s spokespeople Eliezer Feldstein and advisors Jonathan Urich and Srulik Einhorn in the defendant’s seat.

Israeli media reported that Netanyahu also received $15 million from Qatar in 2012 and $50 million in 2018.

It was reported that Feldstein was paid by an international company to support Qatar’s image, and Netanyahu’s advisors Urich and Einhorn also provided image consultancy for Qatar.

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MIDDLE EAST

Gaza ceasefire: The bell of war ringing again

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The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas did not last long, and eventually the bell for war had sounded again. According to media reports, hundreds of Palestinians have been killed in the Gaza Strip as a result of Israeli airstrikes. Israeli officials also warned that the gates of hell had opened on Gaza. The United States also announced that it had responded positively to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s request to resume the war.

The question: Why has the Gaza war resumed?

First: These days, US President Donald Trump has been feverishly pushing for talks with Iran, which is not pleasing to the Israeli side. Trump has repeatedly emphasized the need to negotiate with Iran before pursuing other options.

More importantly, he recently sent a letter addressed to the Iranian Leader and also informed the media. The content of the letter is also focused on starting negotiations with Iran, although it is spoken from a position of power. Furthermore, Adam Boehler, Trump’s representative for Israeli hostage affairs, met with the Hamas leadership in Doha, the capital of Qatar, and evaluated the meeting as constructive, while in response to Tel Aviv’s criticism, he described Hamas members as good people.

Of course, it was recently claimed that he was removed from his position. Now, in order to prevent Trump and Iran from entering the negotiating line and for the US to avoid direct talks with Hamas, the Israeli side has wanted to make the situation critical so that the atmosphere for consultations remains unfavorable. Furthermore, by intensifying the attacks, Netanyahu wants to force Hamas to accept conditions that the group has so far refused to accept.

Second: In the meantime, Trump also has specific goals that he is seeking to achieve: forcing Iran to negotiate. Trump has repeatedly emphasized establishing peace; but from the position of exercising power, using the tools of sanctions and military threats. The deadly airstrikes by the US military on Yemeni Houthi positions and the hints and insinuations of Trump and his entourage towards Iran are also intended to force Tehran to agree to negotiations, and that is, negotiations whose terms and conditions are determined by the American side.

Trump’s green light to resume the Gaza war could also be in this direction, because if the ceasefire goes ahead as included in the agreement, the American and Israeli sides believe that Iran and the so-called “axis of resistance” will declare themselves victorious, and in that case Tehran will either refuse to negotiate or will try to enter the arena from a strong position.

Third: It is true that Trump signed the plan to resume the war, but he will not support the continuation of the war and its spread, for three reasons:

1- it would contradict the slogans that Trump has constantly chanted to end wars. More importantly, since he values ​​the principle of “cost-benefit” so much, his support for a long and consequential war would harm the achievement of the larger goals he has in mind.

Therefore, it supports what Netanyahu wants to a certain extent, which is natural; but it seems unlikely that the previous US administration would want to continuously pump advanced weapons and military equipment into Israel for more than a year.

2- Second, Trump’s support for a long war that results in the deaths of Palestinian civilians could undermine the prospects for expanding the Abraham Accords, an agreement that Trump holds in high regard and cites as the most important achievement of her first administration.

Arab governments also have a sense of dignity and prestige and will not join this treaty for free, especially Saudi Arabia. Therefore, Trump does not want the scope of this treaty to remain narrow.

3- If Trump agrees to support a large-scale and high-consequence war in Gaza, America will be stuck in the Middle East, which will sideline the rest of the White House’s priorities: Ending the war in Ukraine, a trade war with China, Canada, Europe, etc. When the US is once again involved in the Gaza conflict, Russia will become bolder and, instead of giving in to Trump’s demand to sign a ceasefire agreement, will insist on continuing the war to occupy more territory in Ukraine. The trade war with China and Europe also requires that Trump be comfortable with the Middle East.

4- Netanyahu’s cabinet is grappling with numerous internal problems. For example, Internal Security Minister Ben-Governor resigned and left the government in response to accepting the first phase of the ceasefire. Smotrich, another Netanyahu ally, has also warned that he will resign in response to accepting the second phase, which would lead to the collapse of the cabinet.

Apart from that, the risk of launching a comprehensive investigation to clarify the dimensions of the October 7 attack is also prominent, which is possible in the absence of war conditions. In recent days, a serious disagreement between Netanyahu and Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar has flared up, leading to the latter’s dismissal. This dismissal is said to be related to the risk of leaking documents that could jeopardize Netanyahu’s political life.

Now, the simple and inexpensive way to keep the government going and quell internal disputes is to resume the war with Hamas, so that the opposing and supporting view of the external enemy is fixed. In the meantime, the protests of the families of the hostages and the opposition forces are important as a deterrent; but not to the extent of the internal conflict in the cabinet, the disclosure of documents and the preparation of the investigation file into the October 7 attack, which could put an end to the life of the Netanyahu government.

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