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Obligation for a structural change in Russia: How to exit from the oil-gas economy?

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By analyzing the past, present, and future of Russia’s two major export commodities, I will discuss the impacts of the current developments on the budget and the inevitable need for changes in its economic strategy in this article.

First of all, one of the key notions below, “distant nations,” needs some background. Whether or not they are members of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), all former Soviet countries are still regarded as close foreign countries. The rest of the world is likewise distant foreign countries. Here, we only do calculations and charts for distant foreign countries. After leaving China out, European countries constituted its overwhelming majority. Therefore, the conclusion will reflect the impacts of Western sanctions on Russia’s two primary exports and sources of budgetary income (oil and natural gas).

Let me state something upfront for the sake of the reader who is not a fan of lengthy writings. Using 2021 as a baseline, Russia will lose 35% – 40% of its oil and petroleum product exports and 50% of its natural gas exports this year. However, this is only part of Russia’s financial setback. Before the onset of the deep crisis in the first half of 2022, rising energy prices had significantly boosted the country’s income. However, the situation has now reversed, with oil and petroleum products discounted by nearly half their market price.

Natural gas

We’ll begin by explaining how the graph below was drawn, which data was utilized how and why, and how estimations were made.

In order to avoid “misjudgments, speculations, and inconsistencies,” the Federal Customs Administration (FCA) has not released information since April. Hence there is currently no official data for 2022. Gas exports to Europe (in transit via Ukraine) are projected to reach 30 bcm in 2023. At 80% capacity, gas is plummeted through Blue Stream, which equals a maximum of 16 bcm through this line. The largest volume that can be plummeted to China is between 23 and 24 bcm.

It was not disclosed how much natural gas Turkey purchased from Russia last year. However, on July 18, Yuri Ushakov, an advisor to Putin, reported that 12.8 bcm of gas (7.1 Blue Stream, 5.7 Turk Stream) had plummeted in the year’s first half. In addition, the export amounts to China and Europe (excluding “close countries” like the Baltic) are known. Based on these statistics, I estimated the gas export to Turkey at 21.70 bcm. This figure matches what Kommersant reported to the Turkish Customs Administration: 21.50 bcm.

Data from Gazprom and the FTS do not quite match. Gazprom’s export figures are always greater than FTA’s. This also held true in the year 2021. Novak reported on December 28 that Gazprom had exported 185.1 bcm to distant countries. However, according to FTS, total exports to distant countries were 170 bcm. I derived figures on the graph from Gazprom statistics. Additionally, I referred to the Central Bank’s yearly average natural gas prices. Like the FTA, the Central Bank did not integrate the averages of 2022 and afterward into its statistics. Therefore, I utilized the calculations provided by the RIA based on the ICE data as the average natural gas price in 2022: $1260.8 per mcm.

I picked two sets of prices for 2023. First, the price on December 31, 2022, is $844.3, assuming it remains relatively stable throughout the year. If scenario two plays out, temperatures in Europe will remain above seasonal norms this winter and spring, the wind will continue its record-setting speed, Brussels will strike a long-term oil deal with Qatar, relations with Algeria will improve, and the United States will replace the monopoly profit with reasonable prices. Although not all of them are realistic, I would predict that costs can be cut in half if all take place.

For 2023, I have assumed a decline in exports of 30% and a total decrease to 70-75 bcm. If this occurs, European countries will import more than twice as much natural gas from the United States as they did from Russia this year.

Novak said on December 28 that gas exports totaled 100.9 bcm last year. It is a record low. In 1990, it was 110 bcm. On January 16, Miller reported that 15.5 bcm of gas was sold to China. However, Neftegaz announced on January 2 that this figure might be appraised as 18.2 bcm due to an increase in contractual obligations. The graph relies on this second figure.

Miller also said annual gas shipments to China will reach 48 bcm by 2025. But the graph shows that even in this case, the demand from the East cannot make up for the European market loss (at least for now).

I have omitted liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the charts. This export may increase partially. Nearly 16 million tons of LNG were sent to Asia in 2022, and Europe received 15.7 million tons in total. This amount is approximately equal to 44 bcm of gas. Although this figure is not inconsequential, it is not anticipated to increase beyond this level in 2023 owing to the challenges of insurance-reinsurance in transport and tankers other than dependency on Western technology. Furthermore, it is unlikely that the rise in LNG exports would come close to replacing the 180-200 bcm of the potential capacity of the Russia-Europe pipelines before NATO destroyed Nord Stream 1 and 2.

Even by an optimistic prediction, the total demand of China, Belarus, and Turkey in 2023 would only amount to 60 bcm, less than a quarter of Gazprom’s entire supply capacity. So, this is the picture based on the most optimistic estimates: In 2021, Russia globally sold almost 240 bcm of natural gas. By 2023, however, it will only be able to ship a maximum of 45 bcm LNG and export 30 bcm via pipeline to “unfriendly” countries and 60 bcm to neutral countries.

Oil

Let’s look at oil.

I will prepare the chart for the same time frame (2013-2023); however, I will be excluding the data from China, Turkey, and India. For these three reasons:

1) There are gaps in the dataset. On the bright side, it is at least evident that China had been a reliable purchaser (between 70-72 million tons) until 2022.

2) At least as of 2020, Turkish and Russian sources contradict in terms of figures for Turkey’s purchases.

3) Prior to 2022, India was not a huge market for Russian exports, but after that year, it became one of the most important hubs for Russian oil. The share of Russian oil export to India rocketed from 1% on February 24 to 18% in May. India, Turkey, Singapore, and even the United Arab Emirates (UAE) dilute Russian oil before being sold to obfuscate its origin. It is unclear, however, how they would act after Russia’s counter-sanctions go into effect on February 1. Thus, qualifying the data of these three countries will not provide useful insights.

Nevertheless, we may get insights from the figures of crude oil exports and the total income of the annual average oil price.

Like natural gas, I have completed the chart relying on the data of “distant countries” and my own estimates. Similar to natural gas, I predicted a range of $40 to $60 for the barrel price of Ural oil in 2023. These predictions align with the scenarios the Central Bank announced in May. Considering the $60 maximum price, the likely range for the price of Ural oil is between these two extremes. To “distant countries,” I projected 200 million tons of oil exports in 2023. As a result, Russia will lose 90% of its crude oil exports to Europe due to the sanctions, which may cost the country $40 to $70 billion.

I will not go into technical details of the implementation of the sanctions and embargo. Still, it’s important to know that in its broadest sense (including both land and sea traffic), it will be implemented over the course of 6-8 months. This is why the European market has not been totally lost: Bruegel, a European think tank, has shown that 75% of Russia’s oil and petroleum product exports to Europe are sent offshore, while just 25% are transported via pipeline. Germany and Poland, two main consumers, have reduced their purchases, while the Hungarian government has blocked a full ban. Orbán has ensured that the oil pipelines of Slovakia and the Czech Republic from Russia, in addition to those of Hungary, will remain open.

However, the insurance and reinsurance restrictions directly impact exports to India and China. Unless a stable solution to this issue is found (a partial solution is already available; the Russian National Reinsurance Company carries out the reinsurance), overall exports may fall further. Similar to natural gas, compensating the European market with Asia cannot happen in one day.

My estimations for potential losses are in line with these predictions as well. AlfaBank reported an expected loss of $50 billion; for Reuters, it is $40 billion to $54 billion, and for Energy Aspects, $60 billion. Increasing the amount of oil exported may improve the situation, which is feasible if the methods to circumvent the sanctions are broadened. A significant increase in the $40-$60 range for the sale of Ural oil appears unlikely.

These two charts depict a very critical scenario for 2023: Excluding petroleum products and LNG, we may expect Russia’s oil and natural gas income to be between $89.3 and $149.4 billion. This means a revenue drop of between $106 and $166 billion compared to the previous year.

Budget

Budget revenues determined by the 2022 budget law were 25 trillion rubles, but roughly extra 2.5 trillion rubles actually went into the treasury last year. Yet budget expenditures were above this increase; during the year-end press conference, Finance Minister Siluanov said that “around 30 trillion rubles” had been spent. Despite a significant discount in Ural oil (shown in the third chart), oil prices were much higher than in the previous year, and natural gas revenues were at a record level until December 5. And these are the reasons for the increase in income. The greater rise in expense was owing to, in addition to the direct (military expenditures) effect of the Ukrainian operation, the increase in government subsidies to belligerent individuals and their families, and most usually low-income people. The budget, traditionally having a surplus, ran a deficit for the first time in April and was covered for the rest of the year by Gazprom and Rosneft.

The Ministry of Finance had predicted that the price of Ural oil per barrel would be $70.1 in 2023, $67.5 in 2024, and $65.25 in 2025. However, at least for this year, it is quite unlikely that the forecast will come true. In any case, Ural oil was nearly always sold at a discount, but the price difference was generally little more than a few dollars. However, huge price differences appeared after February 24, and the average discount is roughly 30 percent from that date to the end of the year. The discount rate was relatively stable between July and October at about 20-25 percent, but it spiked sharply once the maximum price was published on December 5. Since December 30, it has fluctuated daily between 45-55% as of January 20. In addition, it is still cheaper than $60, the price cap. In contrast, the last year’s price average of Ural oil was $76.09.

The situation with natural gas is similar. According to the explanatory note in the draft budget for 2023–2025 and the official forecast for the 2024–2025 planning period, natural gas exports (total of distant and close countries) fell by 31% in 2023 compared to the previous year, landing at 142 bcm, and will average 125 bcm annually for the next two years. However, these figures should be considered too optimistic because total exports via pipelines may decrease to 90–93 bcm this year if natural gas exports to distant countries reach 70–75 bcm as expected.

According to the most reasonable estimates of the Ministry of Finance, in 2023, if the price of Ural oil per barrel stays at $50 and daily output does not surpass 10 million barrels, the government would get at least $2.1 trillion less in oil and gas revenue in 2023, and the deficit will rise to $5 trillion, instead of the anticipated $2.9 trillion (2 percent of GDP). (In addition to crude oil, other petroleum products, natural gas, coal, etc., will impact this deficit.)

Suppose Ural oil prices remain at about $62-$63 per barrel. In that case, the Ministry of Finance intends to sell yuan from the National Wealth Fund and issue bonds to cover the deficit without raising the tax burden on the bourgeoisie. Alternatively, the government decides to seize “excessive profit” on carbon and fertilizer (this is the Kremlin’s optimal solution; I looked into it further when analyzing Putin’s September 7 speech at the Eastern Economic Forum), to increase the share of the budget in the dividends of state companies (this is the “financial bloc’s” optimal solution), and to issue a new tax regulation, if it fails, or the discounted oil price drops further. The Kremlin sees raising the tax burden on the great bourgeoisie as the best way to ensure that the welfare of the people remains stable or, if feasible, is elevated by state aid. In contrast, the “fiscal bloc” would rather burden the public by increasing indirect taxes. In other words, the bourgeoisie or the people must contribute to cover the budget deficit. As a result, the “conflicting alliance” between “the potent and the impotent” continues.

Conclusion

These are, of course, just estimates anyway. But one thing is clear enough: The traditional economic paradigm (oil and gas economies) is rapidly becoming obsolete. A structural shift in the economy is inevitable. This can be done in two ways: Medium and large private capital shifts from unproductive trade or the production of raw materials for export to industrial output for the domestic market, or the state expands its role as an economic regulator.

While the first way may help in the consolidation of capitalism but given the comprador nature of private capital in Russia, it is unrealistic to assume that it will serve as the primary means. It will continue to be an alternative for the bourgeoisie is eager to fill in the lacuna created by the foreign money leaving Russia. The local bourgeoisie is flexing its muscles to seize closed and closing foreign financial and industrial institutions, so one of the reasons why the ruble has depreciated in the past month is the demand for foreign currencies for purchases. Yet, the comprador nature of capital still prevails. In the first three quarters of last year, the financial-bloc-backed bourgeoisie managed to invest abroad 2.5 trillion rubles, or 10 percent of the budget’s income. On the other hand, taking the first way for structural shift results in the bourgeoisie’s political power being consolidated and empowered, posing a challenge to Bonapartism. Finally, the greatest exporter of raw materials, the state sees no gain in income through the first way, exacerbating the structural problem. Thus, the state must serve as the driving force of structural change.

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India’s space sector: A launchpad for global partnerships

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Ambassador Gurjit Singh, former Indian Ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, and the ASEAN and African Union missions

Growing competition in outer space provides India with a unique opportunity to shape a narrative in which collaboration, rather than confrontation, drives space exploration. Recognised as a trustworthy and cost-effective spacefaring nation, India is now well placed to transform its technological advances into enduring international partnerships that contribute to scientific progress, economic growth, and sustainable development.

India’s journey into space has been distinctive. Unlike many space programmes that emerged from Cold War rivalries, India’s programme was conceived as an instrument of national development. Dr. Vikram Sarabhai anchored India’s space vision in practical applications that would improve the lives of ordinary people. Under his leadership, satellites were developed to strengthen communications, weather forecasting, disaster management, healthcare, agriculture and education. This development-oriented philosophy remains central to India’s space programme and resonates strongly with the needs of countries in the Global South, which seek practical applications of space technology rather than prestige alone.

Today, India’s achievements extend  beyond developmental applications. The Chandrayaan missions, the Mars Orbiter Mission, the Aditya-L1 solar observatory, and the forthcoming Gaganyaan human spaceflight programme have established India as a nation capable of executing sophisticated and reliable space missions. Chandrayaan-3’s successful soft landing near the Moon’s south pole placed India among an exclusive group of space powers while demonstrating that world-class innovation can be achieved at comparatively modest cost.

India’s growing credibility comes at a time when the global space economy is expanding rapidly. Valued at over US$600 billion today and projected to approach US$1.8 trillion by 2035, the sector is increasingly driven by commercial activity in satellite communications, Earth observation, navigation, climate services, broadband connectivity, and emerging fields such as in-orbit servicing and lunar exploration. Many countries aspire to participate but lack indigenous capabilities. They seek dependable long-term partners rather than merely launch providers.

India possesses the capabilities to meet these requirements. The liberalisation of the space sector in 2020 transformed the ecosystem by opening it to private participation. The establishment of the Indian National Space Promotion and Authorisation Centre (IN-SPACe), the expanding commercial role of NewSpace India Limited, and the growth of private enterprises have created one of the world’s most dynamic emerging space ecosystems. Indian startups are developing launch vehicles, satellite platforms, geospatial applications and propulsion technologies that are attracting global investment and customers. Companies such as Skyroot Aerospace, Pixxel and Agnikul Cosmos have demonstrated that Indian private enterprise can compete internationally in advanced space technologies.

The next step is to internationalise this ecosystem.

Rather than positioning itself only as a low-cost launch destination, India will offer comprehensive partnerships encompassing satellite design, launch services, mission operations, ground stations, astronaut training, capacity building and downstream applications in agriculture, disaster management and maritime security. Such integrated partnerships would be valuable for countries across the Global South and the Indo-Pacific seeking affordable, customised and reliable technologies to meet their development priorities.

India has demonstrated the diplomatic value of such cooperation. Through the South Asia Satellite, it provided communication and developmental benefits to neighbouring countries. Indian launch vehicles have successfully placed hundreds of foreign satellites into orbit for governments, universities and commercial operators around the world. India’s decision to join the Artemis Accords reflects its willingness to participate in the peaceful exploration of the Moon through international collaboration. Cooperation with  NASA, the European Space Agency and JAXA has strengthened India’s scientific and technological capabilities.

These partnerships reinforce India’s standing as a leading voice of the Global South. India offers development partnerships based on affordability, reliability and mutual respect rather than creating technological dependence. Space cooperation has therefore become an increasingly important instrument of Indian diplomacy, strengthening bilateral relationships while delivering tangible developmental benefits.

To realise its full potential, India will aim to sustain the momentum of reform. Faster regulatory approvals, greater access to venture capital, stronger intellectual property protection, and closer collaboration among research institutions, industry and academia will be essential. Public procurement policies would continue supporting Indian startups, enabling them to scale up, innovate and integrate into global supply chains.

India is positioned to play a larger role in shaping the governance of outer space. Orbital congestion, space debris, responsible resource utilisation and equitable access to emerging space opportunities are becoming pressing international concerns. As space activities expand, there will be an increasing need for countries capable of building consensus on responsible norms and practices. India’s long-standing commitment to the peaceful uses of outer space, combined with its growing technological capabilities, equips it to contribute meaningfully to the development of rules that promote transparency, sustainability and equitable access.

The coming decade will determine not only which countries lead in space but also how space is governed. With its scientific capabilities, entrepreneurial ecosystem and international credibility, India is uniquely placed to bridge the gap between established and emerging space nations. By building collaborative partnerships founded on inclusivity, mutual benefit and innovation, India can transform its space programme into a major pillar of its global engagement.

In an increasingly divided world, India’s space sector offers a powerful reminder that the greatest achievements in space are those that bring nations together. That may well become India’s most enduring contribution to humanity’s next frontier.

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Great powers and the fierce rivalry in Africa

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In tandem with the retreat of US imperialism and the erosion of its hegemonic capacity, the rivalry among the world’s great powers is intensifying across vast geographies and divergent fronts alike. From Africa to Central Asia, from electric vehicles to artificial intelligence, an acute contest is unfolding—most conspicuously between the United States and China.

History instructs us that wherever great power rivalry takes root, peace remains elusive. Stability cannot endure there. Wars, internal conflicts, coups d’état, and the mass migrations they inevitably trigger dominate the horizon. Nor do great powers desire the cultivation of participatory democracy, human rights, the rule of law, or class consciousness in these lands. Instead, they bolster dictatorships, authoritarian regimes, totalitarian systems, and repressive governance. The imperialist powers harbor no concern for the scarcity of water, drought, or famine in Africa. Their focus is solely fixed on exploitation, plunder, pillaging the resources of the nations upon which they descend, and capturing their domestic markets.

Africa holds singular importance in this context. It commands attention simultaneously by virtue of its sheer expanse, its demographic weight, and its subterranean wealth. In the rivalry across this ancient and impoverished continent, the United States and China lead the vanguard. Russia, too, makes notable maneuvers, though on a less extensive scale. Between the United States and China, the race is particularly fierce regarding the extraction, processing, and conveyance of subterranean resources to world markets.

Africa—endowed with abundant mineral wealth, a population approaching 1.5 billion, and critical strategic importance along global trade routes—whet the appetites of capitalist, advanced, industrialized, imperialist states as a vast, populous, and expanding market. Geopolitically as well, its position cannot be ignored. Africa’s wealth in rare earth elements, precious minerals such as diamonds and gold, and strategic minerals indispensable to advanced technologies—notably copper, cobalt, and lithium—is indisputable.

AFRICA CARRIES NO WEIGHT IN GLOBAL POLITICS

Unlike other continents such as Europe, Asia, or the Americas, Africa possesses no single country that commands prominence in global politics or the world economy. Nor does Africa host an alliance, international organization, or bloc of comparable global stature. In the Americas, there stands a superpower: the United States. In Asia, there are great powers: Russia and China, with India also ascending. In Europe, major, consequential powers endure: the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. Yet on the African continent, no such states exist. What exists in Africa is the rivalry of non-African great powers. Even the 55-member African Union, the institutional body of the continent’s nations, remains far from exerting any real influence—not only in global politics, but even across the African continent itself.

Over the past fifteen to twenty years, Africa has undergone substantial upheavals. Armed conflicts, civil wars, and violence have become pervasive. From Ethiopia to Somalia, Libya to Sudan, armed hostilities have claimed countless lives, destabilized governments, and provoked massive waves of displacement. Terrorist organizations have seized upon these conditions as an opportune opening, and the great powers, in turn, have instrumentalized these terror networks.

In Africa, former nineteenth- and twentieth-century colonial powers such as Britain and France indulge in reveries of bygone eras. They attempt to assert themselves, yet their efforts prove futile. Germany, as Europe’s leading economic, industrial, and technological powerhouse, takes a keen interest in Africa; yet despite this attention, its institutional knowledge and historical experience regarding the continent pale in comparison to those of the British and French. Italy strives to act, but lacks the requisite capacity. The Netherlands and Belgium, once deeply entrenched in Africa, are far removed from their imperial past. Spain and Portugal assert no claim to global primacy. All of these nations languish, to borrow Ahmet Hamdi Tanpınar’s phrase, in “a vague longing for a bygone past.”

China, well aware of Africa’s significance, is investing heavily across the continent. It stands as Africa’s largest trading partner and the primary destination for the continent’s exports. In the provision of loans, credit facilities, and grants to African states, it has outpaced Western institutions. China’s investment and foreign aid capacity, economic leverage, and extensive commercial ties naturally consolidate its political and diplomatic influence across Africa, elevating its visibility and prestige. Under the auspices of the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing continues to finance large-scale infrastructure investments as well as major communications and transport projects.

THE FEROCITY AND DIMENSIONS OF THE RIVALRY

It is, of course, impossible for Russia to mount massive economic investments, conduct extensive aid operations, or sustain the volume of trade in Africa that China commands. Consequently, it seeks to distinguish itself by guaranteeing the security of local leaders, corporate enterprises, and ruling elites, relying predominantly on private military companies (the operations of the Wagner Group being a case in point). Russia has deployed mercenaries to Mali and the Central African Republic.

The United States, for its part, endeavors to counter China’s expanding influence, economic footprint, visibility, and public diplomacy initiatives in Africa, while simultaneously laboring to reinforce its own economic and political ties with African states. One need only recall that the United States, having intervened in Libya in 2011 through NATO, has directly struck ISIS targets in Somalia. The strategic depth of Washington’s relationship with Cairo is likewise well known.

The United States, China, and Russia also stand out prominently in arms sales to African nations. As the great power rivalry on the continent grows ever sharper, the spectrum of contestation widens accordingly. Cultural rivalry is superimposed upon economic, political, and military dimensions. Because every great power seeking to expand its sphere of influence and reach is determined to block the advance of its competitors, Africa serves both as the stage for and the witness to this unsparing contest. Some experts explain this rivalry through the lens of a new strain of colonialism; others account for it by pointing to the inherent nature, complexity, and multifaceted character of competition between imperialist metropoles.

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The women who refuse to be erased: On Japan’s surrender anniversary, the fight over wartime sexual slavery continues

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BUSAN, South Korea — On the day Japan marks the 81st anniversary of its surrender in World War Two, a conference room in Busan’s city council building has become the latest front in a battle over memory.

Allan Wilson, Journalist

Last month, on 23 July, academics, activists and lawmakers gathered here for a symposium on one of the war’s most painful legacies: the estimated tens of thousands of women — euphemistically labelled “comfort women” — forced into sexual slavery by the Imperial Japanese Army. The event was co-hosted by the Carter Human Rights Center’s Asia division and the Korean Women’s Forum.

“The records of the Japanese military’s comfort women are historical assets that the international community must preserve together,” Nam Myung-sook, the Busan city councillor who co-organised the symposium, told the gathering. “Social consensus must be broadened.”

Her words were aimed at more than the audience in the room.

For three decades, survivors and their advocates have pressed Japan for a full and unequivocal accounting. They have met a familiar pattern: moments of apparent progress — the 1993 Kono statement acknowledging military involvement, the 2015 bilateral agreement with South Korea — followed by retreat. Japanese officials continue to dispute the term “sexual slavery.” Textbooks soften the language. Senior politicians visit Yasukuni Shrine, where convicted war criminals are honoured alongside the dead.

The symposium came as UNESCO’s World Heritage Committee convened in Busan, and the timing was deliberate. One of the gathering’s stated goals was to revive the push to have comfort women records inscribed on UNESCO’s Memory of the World register — an effort Japan has repeatedly blocked.

“Our aim is to reaffirm the historical facts of comfort women (受害) to the international community and explore directions that contribute to peace and human rights,” said Yu Ying-mo, senior adviser to the Carter Human Rights Center’s Asia region, in remarks prepared for the event.

A statue, a warning

The symposium also addressed an incident that has become a diplomatic flashpoint: the recent removal of a comfort women memorial statue in Taiwan.

The statue, one of dozens erected across East Asia and beyond, was taken down in recent months. Organisers in Busan described the removal as “an erroneous approach that erases historical wounds and weakens collective memory,” according to the symposium’s programme.

For advocates, the Taiwan case illustrates what happens when political pressure is allowed to dictate historical memory. “Statues, memorial halls, and archives related to comfort women are important spaces of memory that testify to the victims’ suffering and history,” the Carter Human Rights Center said in its written address. “They must be respected.”

Dozens of comfort women memorials now stand in cities from Seoul to San Francisco to Berlin. Each has become a site of diplomatic friction: Japan’s government has consistently objected to them, arguing they perpetuate what it calls an inaccurate narrative.

The shrinking window

Time is running out. Of the few hundred women who came forward in the 1990s, the number of surviving registered victims in South Korea has dwindled to single digits.

This demographic reality has injected new urgency into the preservation effort. Shim Ok-ju, a research professor at George Mason University Korea, told the symposium that the focus must now shift from oral testimony — soon to be lost — to documentation and education.

Seo Kyung-soon, a professor at Pukyong National University, presented findings from the so-called “Gwanbu Trial” records — a series of postwar legal proceedings in which comfort women sought compensation through Japanese courts. The documents, she argued, contain incontrovertible evidence of state orchestration.

A designated discussant panel followed, bringing together Kim Tae-wan, a political science professor at Dong-eui University; Kim Kyung-hee, an independent researcher; and Ahn Jun-young, a journalist from the Busan Ilbo newspaper. The format was designed to bridge academia and public consciousness — to test whether scholarly findings could survive the scrutiny of working journalists and political scientists.

The international dimension

The comfort women issue has never been purely bilateral. In 1996, the UN Special Rapporteur on violence against women concluded that the system constituted “military sexual slavery.” In 2022, the UN Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women urged Japan to “ensure that the issue is accurately reflected in school curricula.”

Yet the gap between international consensus and Japanese government policy remains wide. Prime ministerial statements offer “apologies and remorse” but stop short of accepting legal responsibility. Reparations have come from private funds, not the state.

For organisers of the Busan symposium, the path forward runs through multilateral institutions. UNESCO recognition, they argue, would make historical revisionism harder to sustain. But Japan has made clear it will oppose any such move, as it did when Chinese documents related to the 1937 Nanjing Massacre were inscribed in 2015.

“Facing history squarely and respecting it is a fundamental value that the international community should share,” the symposium’s organisers concluded.

This 15 August, as Japan observes its National Memorial Service for the War Dead, the women who survived — and those who did not — will be remembered in rooms like the one in Busan. Their numbers are dwindling. The question is whether their story will outlast them.

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