DIPLOMACY
On the brink of war or a new renaissance? Highlights from the Schiller Institute’s 40th anniversary

On December 7-8, 2024, the Schiller Institute, founded by Helga Zepp-LaRouche 40 years ago, convened a two-day international conference titled, “In the Spirit of Schiller and Beethoven: All Men Become Brethren!” The event brought together a remarkable panel of diplomats, former heads of state, prominent scholars, and defense experts to address what they termed the planet’s most urgent crisis since the Cuban Missile standoff: the threat of a new and possibly final world war, versus the possibility of forging a new paradigm of peace and mutual development.
The opening panel, held on Saturday, December 7, focused on the theme: “The Strategic Crisis: New and Final World War, or a New Paradigm of the One Humanity?” It featured prominent figures from across the globe.
The panel was moderated by Dennis Speed of the Schiller Institute, who opened the session by referencing the anniversary of the Institute’s founding and the extraordinary peril the world now faces. Speed reminded the audience of the significance of December 7 for the United States—Pearl Harbor Day—invoking the profound transformations wrought by past conflicts and suggesting a parallel with today’s dangerous global escalation.
All Men Become Brethren!@SchillerInst International Online Conference
December 7-8, 2024Registration link in
"The previously dominant unipolar world has crumbled, and the effort to prevent a multipolar world from establishing itself is futile. That is the main reason for… pic.twitter.com/qqkAxrBzfD
— Schiller Institute (@SchillerInst) December 4, 2024
Among the key speakers were Helga Zepp-LaRouche, founder of the Schiller Institute; Naledi Pandor, former Minister of International Relations of South Africa; Ambassador Chas W. Freeman, Jr., former U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense; and Donald Ramotar, former President of Guyana.
Keynote by Helga Zepp-LaRouche: A choice of paradigms
Helga Zepp-LaRouche set the tone: “We are coming together in an extremely dangerous moment,” she said, “one that may be even more dangerous than the Cuban Missile Crisis.” She warned that the global strategic environment, marked by NATO’s expansion and the ongoing war in Ukraine, has created a climate in which nuclear weapons could be used again, possibly ending human civilization.
Zepp-LaRouche challenged the prevalent assumption that financial and geopolitical constructs must be maintained at all costs. She recalled the late economist Lyndon LaRouche’s insistence that “money is not value,” arguing that the physical economy—productivity, technological progress, and infrastructure—must guide policy. She called for a return to the principles of the Peace of Westphalia (1648), urging major powers to cast aside revenge and geopolitics, and instead embrace cooperation for mutual development. “It is urgent,” she said, “that we establish a new security and development architecture, a paradigm that meets the interests of all nations.”
Dmitri Trenin: Rejecting the old Cold War frame
From Moscow, Professor Dmitri Trenin offered a Russian perspective on the evolving crisis. “We are not in Cold War II,” he insisted. “The analogy is wrong.” Trenin stressed that today’s world is far more complex, with multiple power centers and no functioning arms control mechanisms. He warned that the old tools that kept the Cold War ‘cold’—communication channels, treaties, and a shared fear of nuclear weapons—have eroded.
Trenin pointed out that globalization under Western rules is over. The world, he said, is becoming truly multipolar, with regionalism on the rise. He cautioned the United States against attempting to preserve its hegemony at all costs, noting that “attempts to salvage [unipolar dominance] are as dangerous as they are futile.” He urged Washington to learn the lesson the Soviet Union once did: overextension leads to collapse. Now, it is time for nations to realign their priorities, focusing on domestic economic health rather than a vain bid for global supremacy.
Voices from the Global South
Former President Donald Ramotar of Guyana spoke forcefully about the global inequalities driving conflict. He noted that in recent years, the Global South—representing the majority of humanity—has begun to straighten its back and assert its interests. Ramotar criticized policies that keep developing countries locked in poverty and underdevelopment. “The transatlantic powers have made humongous profits from wars,” he said, calling these conflicts “wars for profit” that enrich weapon manufacturers and financiers.
Ramotar praised China’s Belt and Road Initiative and cooperation with the Global South as a model of “win-win” relations that uplift entire regions. He contrasted this with the IMF and World Bank’s conditionalities that perpetuate underdevelopment. “If the West joined in some of these initiatives,” Ramotar concluded, “we might end poverty in our lifetime.”
Ján Čarnogurský: A European perspective
Slovakia’s former Prime Minister Ján Čarnogurský delivered a stark evaluation of European policy. He recalled that in the early 1990s, promises were made not to expand NATO eastward; these were broken. He criticized the West’s reneging on the Minsk Accords, drawing parallels with the deceitful handling of the Yugoslav crisis.
Čarnogurský questioned who truly leads U.S. policy and lamented Europe’s subservience to Washington and London. He noted that European states are suffering under U.S.-imposed policies, losing industries to American soil. Stressing that Russia has no interest in marching west, Čarnogurský argued that the Ukraine war should end in negotiations, not endless escalation. “If the West lost the war in Ukraine,” he said, “it might simplify problems” and pave the way for stable peace negotiations.
Ambassador Chas W. Freeman, Jr.: Diplomacy abandoned
Ambassador Chas Freeman, a seasoned American diplomat, reminded the audience of the dangers of nuclear brinkmanship. “The humane world order after World War II has expired,” Freeman said. Now, egregious violations of international law occur with impunity. He pointed to the absence of meaningful diplomacy, noting that U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken had not once visited Moscow, while Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has not been welcomed in Washington for years. “There are no functioning arms control agreements,” he warned, “and no communication lines.”
Freeman highlighted the urgent need for an Austrian-style solution in Ukraine, referring to the 1955 Austrian State Treaty which established that country’s permanent neutrality. “Such a Ukraine,” he said, “could serve as a buffer and a bridge,” ensuring Russia’s security concerns are met while guaranteeing Ukraine’s sovereignty and prosperity. “Diplomacy must replace demonization,” Freeman concluded, “or we face a nuclear Armageddon.”
Ambassador Hossein Mousavian: Iran and the nuclear dilemma
Ambassador Hossein Mousavian of Iran brought the Middle East dimension into view. The crisis over Iran’s nuclear program, he said, points to the urgent need for a region-wide approach. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), abandoned by the U.S. under President Trump, had established robust verification measures ensuring no Iranian nuclear weapon would emerge. Mousavian argued for expanding these principles regionally, applying similar restrictions and verifications across the Middle East, including Israel, to achieve a region free of weapons of mass destruction.
“There is a solution,” Mousavian maintained. “We can have permanent restrictions if all parties agree to uniform standards.” He suggested that if Iran’s neighbors like Saudi Arabia also accept rigorous inspections, everyone would gain security and stability. This approach, Mousavian said, could become “the best objective guarantee” against nuclear proliferation in the entire region.
Professor Zhang Weiwei: Asia’s peaceful development model
From China, Professor Zhang Weiwei of Fudan University noted that while Europe slides into lose-lose scenarios, the China-ASEAN region has achieved a remarkable “win-win” story. He credited Asia’s success to its focus on development, infrastructure, and respect for civilizational diversity. “China and ASEAN have enjoyed peace and prosperity for nearly five decades,” he said, pointing to the emphasis on building roads, railways, and ports—trademark features of the Belt and Road Initiative.
Zhang contrasted this development-oriented model with the West’s approach, which he described as zero-sum. “China stands for unity and mutual benefit,” he said, “not divide and rule.” He recalled the influence of Chinese strategic culture, including Sun Tzu’s ancient wisdom, which emphasizes achieving goals without resorting to war. “The solution to Europe’s problem is clear—join in the Belt and Road Initiative, invest in infrastructure, and build a community of shared destiny,” he concluded.
Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson: From the Pentagon’s perspective
Retired U.S. Army Colonel Larry Wilkerson, former Chief of Staff to Secretary of State Colin Powell, spoke bluntly: “The U.S. today is fighting the inevitable shift of global power back to the East,” he said. Wilkerson criticized what he called “the empire’s example”: an American foreign policy trapped in arrogance and ignorance of history.
Wilkerson warned that if a conventional conflict escalated between the U.S. and Russia or China, the United States might quickly find itself losing badly and thus tempted to use nuclear weapons first. “We are so broken conventionally,” Wilkerson said, “we might be the first to use nuclear arms because we’d be taking horrendous casualties.” He stressed that any nuclear exchange would end civilization. The solution? End the empire logic, he urged. Seek balanced and rational diplomacy while we still can.
Scott Ritter: The unthinkable becomes probable
Former U.N. weapons inspector Scott Ritter, in a pre-recorded statement, underscored the grim reality: “Today’s situation is more dangerous than the Cuban Missile Crisis because there is no communication,” he said. Ritter warned that the U.S. provisioning of advanced missiles to Ukraine and talk of a ‘limited’ nuclear war by some U.S. strategists is gambling with planetary survival.
Ritter pinned hopes on a diplomatic shift with the incoming U.S. administration. “We must help ourselves by helping Russia understand that these reckless policies will not continue,” he said. In other words, a strategic reset is urgently needed. If not, the world might stumble into nuclear war by miscalculation.
Proposed solutions
Throughout the session, panelists offered concrete proposals. Helga Zepp-LaRouche suggested reviving the spirit of Franklin D. Roosevelt’s Bretton Woods, focusing on global development and infrastructure rather than financial speculation. She also recalled Lyndon LaRouche’s old proposal of the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), not as a weapons scheme, but as a joint effort by major powers to make nuclear weapons technologically obsolete through new physical principles and massive scientific cooperation.
Dmitri Trenin and Chas Freeman both stressed diplomatic channels. Trenin called for a return to stable negotiations on arms control. Freeman recommended a European security architecture that includes Russia and respects its interests. Both noted that genuine dialogue, free from demonization, is the only realistic path.
Donald Ramotar and Professor Zhang Weiwei pointed to economic development as a peace strategy. The Belt and Road Initiative’s “win-win” framework can uplift the Global South and transform war-torn regions into hubs of commerce. Economic corridors might replace battlefields if the West abandoned zero-sum thinking and joined cooperative ventures.
Ján Čarnogurský and Hossein Mousavian highlighted specific frameworks, such as making Ukraine a neutral state and building a Middle East free of weapons of mass destruction. Čarnogurský’s reference to the 1955 Austrian State Treaty and Mousavian’s concept of region-wide nuclear verification both illustrate how carefully crafted treaties can diffuse tension.
Larry Wilkerson and Scott Ritter underscored the urgency. Without a massive shift in U.S. strategic thinking—from seeking hegemony to embracing multipolarity—the world risks stumbling into global conflict. They urged immediate steps: cease unrealistic objectives like “strategic defeat” of nuclear-armed adversaries, open channels of communication, and reduce the risk of accidental nuclear war.
A call for a cultural shift
A recurring theme was the idea that cultural values must underpin policy shifts. The conference’s motto, “In the Spirit of Schiller and Beethoven: All Men Become Brethren,” evoked the notion that moral uplift and aesthetic education could guide politics. Zepp-LaRouche invoked classical composers and poets to stress that universal human values transcend power politics.
The Schiller Institute’s emphasis on great art, classical music, and poetic drama is not ornamental. As Zepp-LaRouche reminded participants, Schiller believed in improving citizens through culture, enabling them to think of humanity as one family. Beethoven’s “Ode to Joy” from the Ninth Symphony embodies the ideal of universal brotherhood—an ethical vision that stands in stark contrast to nuclear brinkmanship.
The panelists agreed: to avoid catastrophe, citizens must pressure their governments to return to reason, respect international law, and prioritize human development. Helga Zepp-LaRouche urged that the ten principles her Institute has advocated—centered on sovereignty, development, and the common aims of humanity—be taken up widely. She called on people worldwide to reject the Carl Schmitt-type friend-enemy distinctions and adopt a principle of the “One Humanity.”
In the words of Naledi Pandor, who was unable to speak fully at this panel but whose excerpted statements were acknowledged, “BRICS and the Global South can forge a more just multipolar order.” As developing nations rise, they demand a seat at the table. This could be the key: integrating new powers into a cooperative framework for security and development.
A last chance for humanity?
The grim warnings of these statesmen, diplomats, and scholars spoke to a moment of profound danger. Nuclear arsenals loom, conflicts rage without dialogue, and powerful states push brinkmanship to extremes. Yet, the panel also projected a sense of hope. A new paradigm—one that rejects zero-sum geopolitics and embraces mutual respect, economic cooperation, and cultural renaissance—was the through line connecting all speakers.
“We have a choice,” Helga Zepp-LaRouche concluded. “Either we continue down the path to a final world war, or we rise to the occasion and build a new paradigm of the One Humanity. Let’s choose life, not death.”
DIPLOMACY
Trump’s tariffs boost interest in German, Japanese bonds

With investors seeking safe havens for investment for the first time in years, US Treasury bonds face serious competition from global funds.
The yields on benchmark 10-year Treasury bonds had fallen by approximately 40 basis points this year. With US President Donald Trump’s barrage of tariffs, which are thought to increase the risk of recession, they briefly fell below 4% on Monday.
According to Bloomberg, similar rates have risen in both Europe and Japan. In Germany, the 10-year bond rose to 2.61%, reflecting expectations that bond issuance will increase as the government increases defense spending.
Meanwhile, the rate on 10-year Japanese bonds has also risen after years around zero, and is currently around 1.25% as investors prepare for tighter monetary policy.
While both are still well below US bond yields, they are at levels that make them appear more attractive than Treasury bonds for European and Japanese investors who are protected from dollar risk when buying US securities.
This may convince investors to shift to their own markets, where the policy outlook is more stable.
“The idea that the administration’s various policies could undermine foreign demand for Treasury bonds is gaining traction,” said Matthew Raskin, head of US interest rates research at Deutsche Bank.
Deutsche Bank also warned of a “confidence crisis” in the dollar, while UBS Group believes the euro would get a “shot in the arm” in its status as a global reserve currency.
On the other hand, some believe this change should be viewed with skepticism. The German government bond, Bund, looked similarly attractive in mid-2023, but an aggressive sell-off in Treasury bonds pushed 10-year US yields to 5%, eroding Europe’s yield advantage.
If tariffs revive inflation, this could push US yields higher again.
But according to Bloomberg, even the discussion of such a shift in flows shows that investors are preparing for Europe to play a bigger role in global markets as competition for capital intensifies.
This could lead to greater fragility in the US Treasury market, which has been under attack from buyers in recent years amid concerns that supply could increase.
One of the early tests will take place on Tuesday, when the US government sells $58 billion of three-year bonds, followed by the sale of 10- and 30-year bonds later this week.
Traditionally, the US budget deficit has been financed in part by a wave of capital flowing into Treasury bonds from around the world.
According to Barclays’ analysis of fund flow data, foreign ownership of US Treasury bonds accounts for about a third of the market, and the foreign sector was the largest source of US bond demand last year.
This reflected net purchases of $910 billion, about half of which were in Treasury bonds.
According to US government data, the vast majority of foreign Treasury assets are in longer maturities. Ales Koutny, international interest rates manager at Vanguard, said this means that as foreign demand decreases, it could steepen the US yield curve, meaning long-term rates will rise relative to short-term rates.
An early indication of how investors are navigating global yield shifts may emerge in a few days. The new fiscal year has just begun in Japan, and this is a period when companies there typically review their allocation strategies.
Japan is a key player in global bond markets due to the Bank of Japan’s decades-long ultra-low interest rate policy, which has pushed investors to seek yield.
Germany initiated the change in early March, announcing plans to allocate hundreds of billions of euros for defense and infrastructure. Bund yields rose as investors priced in bond issuance to cover the spending.
The European Union’s large pool of savings surplus means it is the largest foreign holder of US public debt, while also playing a large role in US corporate finance.
If European countries meaningfully increase their investments, these savings could be kept at home.
DIPLOMACY
Japan seeks peace treaty with Russia despite territorial dispute

The Japanese Foreign Ministry, in its annual Blue Book report outlining key diplomatic trends, has declared its intention to continue negotiations with Russia to sign a peace treaty and resolve the issue of the “northern territories” (Tokyo’s term for the Southern Kurils), despite the challenging relationship.
These islands include Kunashir, Shikotan, Iturup, and the Habomai archipelago.
The ministry once again described these territories as “illegally occupied” and stated that the Kuril Islands issue is the greatest concern in Japan-Russia relations.
Japan and the Soviet Union, of which the Russian Federation is the successor, have not signed a peace treaty following World War II due to the territorial dispute over the Southern Kurils.
In 2022, Russia refused to continue negotiations on this matter after Japan imposed sanctions following the start of the military intervention in Ukraine.
Moscow also withdrew from dialogue on developing joint economic activities in the Southern Kurils.
The report also emphasized that the Japanese government is pursuing a policy of gradually reducing its dependence on Russian energy resources, including oil and coal, while acting to minimize the negative impact on public life and business.
At the same time, the report stated that Japan intends to maintain its participation in the Sakhalin-1 and Sakhalin-2 projects.
The document stated, “The Sakhalin-1 and Sakhalin-2 oil and gas development projects are important for Japan’s energy security in terms of ensuring a stable supply in the medium and long term, and we intend to maintain our participation in them.”
In the previous version of the Blue Book, the Japanese Foreign Ministry also declared its intention to maintain its participation in the Sakhalin-1 and Sakhalin-2 projects.
In the Sakhalin-1 project, where Sokol-grade oil is produced, the Japanese consortium Sodeco (whose main shareholder is the Japanese government, and its members are private companies such as Japex, Itochu, Marubeni, Inpex) has a 30% stake.
The American company ExxonMobil also had the same stake but announced its withdrawal from the project in 2022.
The new managing operator of Sakhalin-1 became Sakhalinmorneftegaz-Shelf, a subsidiary of Rosneft (which previously had an 11.5% stake).
All assets of the consortium running the Sakhalin-1 project were transferred to Russian ownership.
Additionally, ONGC Videsh Ltd (India’s state oil company) has a 20% stake in Sakhalin-1, and RN-Astra (a subsidiary of Rosneft) has an 8.5% stake.
Although Japan does not import fuel under the project, Tokyo considers Sakhalin-1 important for ensuring supply diversity and stability.
The then-Japanese Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, Yasutoshi Nishimura, touched on this issue in a statement in the fall of 2022.
Nishimura noted that Japan is 95% dependent on the Middle East for its oil supply.
Japan is one of the world’s largest importers of liquefied natural gas (LNG), sourcing approximately 9% of its total LNG volume purchased from Sakhalin-2.
Japanese companies Mitsui and Mitsubishi hold 12.5% and 10% stakes in Sakhalin-2, respectively, and confirmed their participation in the project in the fall of 2022.
DIPLOMACY
US-Iran talks to begin in Oman on April 12

Negotiations between the US and Iran, the first contact since US President Donald Trump’s return to office, will begin in Oman on April 12. While the Iranian side describes these talks as “indirect,” Trump suggests the talks will take place in a direct diplomacy format. Although different expressions are used between the parties on this matter, there is a common understanding that the talks will be high-level.
Trump said in a statement after hosting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House last night, “We are talking directly to Iran. Perhaps a deal will be made that will be wonderful. This would be really great for Iran. We will meet at the highest level on Saturday.”
Just hours after this statement, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi confirmed the talks in a post on his social media account, but explained the format differently: “Iran and the US will meet for high-level indirect talks in Oman on Saturday. This is as much an opportunity as it is a test. The ball is now in the US’s court.”
Araqchi, Witkoff to chair the talks
According to information in the Iranian press, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi will head the Iranian delegation in the negotiations, while US Special Representative for the Middle East Steve Witkoff will head the US delegation. No official statement has yet been made regarding how many days the talks will last.
According to sources speaking to Amwaj Media, Iranian officials continue to state that the negotiations will be indirect. However, some political circles also state that the possibility of direct contact is not completely ruled out, depending on developments in Oman.
Is there a chance of success for the negotiations?
According to Trita Parsi, Vice President of the Washington-based Quincy Institute, Trump’s negotiation goal will determine the course of this process. According to Parsi, if the US side aims to completely eliminate Iran’s nuclear program with the “Libya model,” this diplomatic initiative may end before it begins. However, if Trump only aims for an audit mechanism that will prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, the talks have a chance of success.
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