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Pakistan, Afghanistan and the Pakistani Taliban

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Nine Pakistan army soldiers were killed in attacks carried out by the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) in one of its bases in Zhob garrison in northern Balochistan.

Pakistan’s army said that the militants launched the attack, following which four soldiers were killed and five others were injured. Later, in an update, the army said that five soldiers who got critically injured earlier while “fighting gallantly” had succumbed to their injuries, putting the death toll to nine.

“Security forces and the nation remain resilient and determined to thwart all such dastardly attempts of the enemy aimed at destroying the peace of Balochistan and Pakistan,” the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) said in a statement.

Days after the attack, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Gen. Asim Munir visited the wounded in a hospital in Quetta, and several criticized Afghanistan’s government under the rule of the Taliban for such an attack in Pakistan.

Later, Khawaja Asif, Pakistan’s defense minister took a similar position and blamed Afghanistan for such attacks.

“Irrespective of Afghanistan’s stance, Pakistan stands resolute in uprooting terrorism from its soil, whatever the source. This is regardless of whether or not Kabul has the will to reign in militants from within its borders,” Asif said.

Pakistan blames Taliban for not respecting the neighbors

He blamed the Taliban for not respecting the neighbors, and said that the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) roam freely in Afghanistan.

Asif also criticized the government of Imran Khan, former Prime Minister of Pakistan, who allegedly supported the transfer of TTP from Afghanistan to Pakistan.

The government of Afghanistan is currently under the control of the Taliban.  During nearly three decades of struggle, including political and military engagement, they were accused of being very close to the government of Pakistan.

There is even an accusation of the establishment of Taliban by the Pakistani army and especially its intelligence department.

When the Taliban were defeated in Afghanistan in 2000, they used Pakistan’s soil as a shelter and a training and re-equipment camp.

On the other hand, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) considers itself a branch of Afghan Taliban.

The TTP has even pledged allegiance to the current supreme leader of the Taliban, Mullah Hebatullah Akhundzada. Meanwhile, the Afghan Taliban has been accused of giving to the leaders, fighters and families of TTP members in Afghanistan.

TTP is being transformed to Afghanistan by help of Pakistan

But, many say that the Afghani Taliban in coordination with the government of Pakistan and at the expense of Islamabad had transferred the Pakistani Taliban from the south and east to the north and northeast of Afghanistan.

The Afghani Taliban during their war against the US forces had received full support from the TTP.

Therefore, the relationship between the Afghan Taliban and the Pakistani Taliban is bilateral and durable.

But such an apparent relationship depicts a cycle of violence, in which the Pakistani army and government support the Afghan Taliban, the Afghan Taliban support the Pakistani Taliban, and the Pakistani Taliban attack the people and government of Pakistan.

Lack of seriousness against the TTP

The government of Pakistan under the leadership of Shahbaz Sharif is nearing its end. Prime Minister Sharif has recently promised to step down from power at the end of the legal deadline and pave the way for the establishment of the future government.

Therefore, the life of Sharif’s government will end on August 13, and within 60 days after that, the elections of this country must be held, where a new government will be formed as a result.

Indeed, this election is more sensitive than other elections. One of the reasons for its sensitivity is the conflict between the Tehreek-e-Insaf party, led by Imran Khan, the ousted Prime Minister of Pakistan, with the army and the current government.

The current government, which is led by the Nawaz branch of the Muslim League, has powerful parties such as the People’s Party led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari and the Jamaat Ulema Islam led by Maulana Fazal Rehman in a fragile coalition.

This coalition was not formed based on the closeness of the political beliefs of these parties – the main reason for its formation is having a common enemy named Tehreek-e-Insaf. Otherwise, the People’s Party, which claims to fight for the secularization of Pakistan, and the Jamaat Ulema-e-Islam Party, which is at the opposite end of this claim, cannot be combined.

TTP issue is part of electoral propaganda

Now, despite the fact that Imran Khan is under severe pressure from the army and the current government, and even he was forced to resign from this party and some of his members also forced to withdraw from politics, Imran Khan is still popular among the masses of Pakistan. It can be the main rival of the parties included in the current coalition government.

There are speculations that the army and the current government of Pakistan are trying to find a way to exclude Tehreek-e-Insaf from participating in the upcoming elections, but they do not succeed, there is a possibility that Tehreek-e-Insaf will come to power again.

Therefore, this election is of special importance for people like Khawaja Mohammad Asif, who became a member of the parliament to the Ministry of Defense, and General Asim Munir, who currently leads the Pakistan Army as a potential enemy of Tehreek-e-Insaf.

Imran Khan will win again

If Imran Khan and his political team can take power once again, the fight against the unlimited powers of the army, its interference in civil affairs, and especially the generals who, according to him, plotted against Tehreek-e-Insaf and then filed a case against its leaders– is not far from possible.

Khan tried to fight against the army during his rule but failed. However, if he wins again, his fight with generals like Asim Munir is very likely.

Therefore, what Khawaja Asif and Gen. Munir have said in recent days, after the TTP attack on the Zhob military center, can have a propaganda aspect and be a part of the unofficial and premature election campaign.

The previously mentioned cycle of violence continues to take victims from the people of Afghanistan and Pakistan. This cycle of violence is carried out in Afghanistan by different militant groups, inducing the Islamic State (IS), and in Pakistan by TTP. Now, on the eve of Pakistan’s decisive elections, the wounded people of this country are angry and saddened by the attacks of fundamentalist groups.

The public opinion in such a situation demands that the army and the government of Pakistan take steps to fight terrorism. Since the origin of terrorist groups ends in Rawalpindi, the words of Pakistani government officials and the head of the army of this country do not seem very serious.

Pakistan must stop blaming Afghanistan for its own failure

If they are honest and serious in their fight against terrorism, they will stop blaming the Afghan government for harboring TTP instead focus on its solution which has two options – 1, the start negotiations and second to carry out comprehensive military operations.

Taliban spokesman, Zabihullah Mujahid has said that there is no TTP in Afghanistan and asked Pakistan to share any evidence in regards if there is any.

“In case we receive evidence, we will consider it and take action. Pakistan blames us for its own failure in maintaining the law and order situation internally,” Mujahid said.

In a major move, the Ministry of Defense of Pakistan and the army have guided the Afghan Taliban to the “Doha” agreement and the international commitments of this group and asked them to adhere to these commitments and prevent the use of Afghan soil for terrorist acts against other countries.

Again Mujahid said that Doha agreement was signed between Taliban and US and refuted Pakistan’s role in the peace agreement.

Pakistan’s role in Doha peace agreement

However, Asif said that in reality, Pakistan played a pivotal role in facilitating the Doha Peace Agreement. “The constructive contribution of Pakistan in enabling the peace agreement between the United States and the Afghan Taliban on February 29 received commendation from various notable figures, including former Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Qatari Foreign Minister, and Taliban leaders, among others,” Asif added.

However, if the government and army of Pakistan really consider TTP as an enemy, they will not be able to fight this group by moving them from one place to another. They have sufficient access to the territory of Pakistan through one and other ways.

The best way to fight the TTP is that the government of Pakistan should take the issue seriously and start the fight with their terrorist policies and in the second step takes practical action against terrorist religious schools in Pakistan.

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Afraid of the gun; Taliban supreme leader fears of a coup

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Hibatullah Akhundzada, the supreme leader of the Taliban, has ordered the security institutions that without his permission, “no one can distribute or use the military equipment registered by the ministries of defense and interior, the directorate of intelligence and other independent institutions.”

Experts and analysts have considered this move by Hibatullah as last resort to weaken the position of defense minister, Yaqoob Mujahid, interior minister, Sirajuddin Haqqani and the head of Taliban intelligence, Abdul Haq Wasiq in order to prevent a possible internal coup that was initiated by these three top officials.

In the first article of the order, it is mentioned that no person can distribute military equipment registered in the reserves of the ministries of defense, interior and intelligence, or issue an order to distribute it without the order of Hibatullah.

This decree titled “Regarding the distribution, protection and supervision of registered military equipment”, specifies that whenever an Emirate entity (Taliban-related entity) needs weapons, ammunition, night vision cameras, telecommunications and other military equipment” must receive the approval order from the leader of the Taliban.

Also, in the second article of this decree, it is stated that whenever one of the military departments of the Taliban needs military equipment, it must send its request to Hibatullah’s office in Kandahar.

In the third article of the decree, it is emphasized that if the military equipment was distributed or used without the permission of the Taliban leader before the issuance of this decree, they must be returned to the reserves.

Ministries of defense, interior and head of intelligence department are banned from disturbing military weapons.

According to this article, Hibatullah entrusted the ministries of defense and interior, as well as the general directorate of Taliban intelligence, with the responsibility to report the list of available military equipment to the directorate of registration, and protection of military equipment.

This order of the Taliban leader has been considered as another step in the direction of concentrating more power in the hands of Mullah Hibatullah in Kandahar. Many have seen it as a sign of Hibatullah’s increasing distrust of senior Taliban officials in Kabul. Previously, some senior Taliban officials, including Sirajuddin Haqqani, have openly disobeyed Hibatullah’s order to prohibit photography and filming and have not followed the order of their supreme leader.

(R) Defense Minister Mullah Yaqoob Mujahid and (L) Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani.

Previously, several reports have been published about the sale of military equipment left over from the US troops and Afghan security forces during the republic government. Even the US-elected president Donald Trump, repeatedly mentioned this issue during his election campaigns. Not long ago, the government of Pakistan also announced that the Pakistan security forces have discovered and confiscated a car carrying US weapons smuggled from Afghanistan.

Pakistani media reported that this equipment included M4 assault rifles, night vision cameras and thousands of rounds of ammunition, which were transported in a truck carrying vegetables. Pakistani security officials have estimated the total value of weapons smuggled from Afghanistan in this truck to be 126,354 US dollars.

The cost of US’s remaining equipment in Afghanistan estimated over 7 billion US dollars

The Pentagon has already announced that after the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan, about 7 billion dollars of military equipment fell into the hands of the Taliban. This equipment reached the hands of the Taliban after the fall of Afghanistan on 15 August, 2021.

It has been reported that when the US forces left Afghanistan, there were 78 US-made aircrafts in the country, whose value reached 1 billion dollars. According to CNN, with the end of the US military presence, a total of more than 9,000 air-to-ground munitions worth more than six and a half million dollars have remained in Afghanistan.

The report also states that out of a total of 96,000 military vehicles, more than 40,000 units, including 12,000 Humvees (armored tanks), fell into the hands of the Taliban. Moreover, out of a total of more than 400,000 weapons that the US gave to the forces of the former Afghan government, about 300,000 remain in the country.

Almost all “communications equipment, including mobile base stations, portable and hand-held commercial and military radio systems, and associated transmitters and encryption devices, all remain in Afghanistan,” according to the report.

The report added that “almost all” of the equipment for night vision cameras, surveillance, biometric and positioning equipment,” a total of nearly 42 thousand pieces of specialized equipment, remained in Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, Five Mi 17 helicopters of the then Afghan army, which were transferred to Ukraine for repair before the collapse of the government, have also returned to Afghanistan and now are used by the Taliban.

It should be noted that the internal rivalries in the Taliban, especially among the different factions of this group, is one of the important reasons for Mullah Hibatullah’s distrust of some Taliban officials. Some officials, including interior minister Sirajuddin Haqqani and defense minister Mohammad Yaqub Mujahid, gained a lot of power, especially during the Taliban’s war against foreign forces, and Mullah Hibatullah may be worried that these officials are trying to expand their power, which is a clear threat to his position as the Taliban leader.

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China’s BYD prepares to launch latest SUV, the Sealion 07, in Europe despite EU tariffs

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BYD, the world’s largest electric vehicle (EV) maker, is set to launch its latest SUV, the Sealion 07, in Europe, undeterred by recent tariff increases on Chinese-made electric vehicles. This strategic move highlights BYD’s commitment to expanding overseas sales despite economic barriers.

Deliveries of the Sealion 07 are scheduled to begin in 2025, marking BYD’s seventh all-electric model in the European market, the company announced on Wednesday. Additionally, BYD plans to enter the South Korean market next year, adding to its existing presence in 95 countries worldwide.

This European expansion comes on the heels of the European Union’s decision last month to impose new tariffs—ranging from 17% to 35.3%—on Chinese electric vehicles following an anti-subsidy investigation. BYD’s EVs are subject to a 17% tariff, in addition to the standard 10% tariff applied to all pure electric cars imported from China. These tariffs, which took effect last month, will remain in place for five years. Meanwhile, U.S. tariffs on Chinese-made EVs increased from 25% to 100% as of September, citing similar concerns.

Despite the added costs, BYD’s vehicles continue to hold strong appeal in export markets. “BYD’s vehicles remain attractive even after the additional tariffs, so it’s not really a big problem for the company,” said Chen Jinzhu, CEO of Shanghai Mingliang Auto Service, a leading industry consultancy. “The Sealion 07 exemplifies how BYD’s cost advantage enables it to counteract such trade barriers in key export markets.”

Shenzhen-based BYD has yet to disclose the European pricing for the Sealion 07. On the mainland, the SUV—featuring a range of 450 kilometers—starts at 189,800 yuan (approximately US$26,272), with deliveries beginning in May.

According to a report last year from UBS analysts, BYD has a sustainable cost advantage of 25% over traditional European brands.

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Singles’ day promotions target overseas Chinese as China’s domestic demand slows

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After last year’s Singles’ Day shopping festival in China was dubbed the “quietest in history,” China’s e-commerce platforms focused on a new strategy this year.

For this year’s Singles’ Day event, major e-commerce companies such as Alibaba, JD.com, and Pinduoduo invested heavily in expanding overseas markets, targeting the estimated 100 million Chinese living abroad with offers like discounts and free or low-cost shipping.

The central question, however, is not whether these efforts will succeed in the short term, but rather if this shift can help platforms grow their user bases as online sales growth in China reaches a bottleneck.

“Domestic consumption is quite weak right now, and every company is certainly considering new ways to drive growth for Singles’ Day,” said an executive at a leading online retailer, who requested anonymity. “The overseas market is widely seen as a promising source for additional growth,” he added in an interview with Nikkei Asia.

Singles’ Day, a one-day sales event launched by Alibaba in 2009 as a celebration for singles, has since evolved into a month-long campaign with special offers and deep discounts, culminating on or around November 11.

This year, China aimed to revitalize its retail sector with the event. Total consumer goods sales rose by 3.3% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, though high-end consumer spending remained stagnant. Cosmetics sales fell by 1%, while gold and silver jewelry sales declined by 3.1% year-on-year.

Last month, Alibaba’s Taobao launched a significant marketing campaign in Hong Kong and Taiwan, flooding subway stations with advertisements for “free shipping on orders over 99 yuan,” among other offers. According to the company, the campaign cost 2 billion New Taiwan dollars ($61.7 million) in Taiwan and 1 billion yuan ($138 million) in Hong Kong.

Following Alibaba’s move, JD.com announced it had invested 1.5 billion yuan to offer discounted product prices and cheaper shipping to Hong Kong shoppers. Bargain platform Pinduoduo took it a step further, offering free shipping via courier SF Express for Hong Kong shoppers, regardless of the item’s price. All products on these platforms are shipped from mainland China.

A spokesperson from Alibaba’s International Digital Commerce Group noted that since the overseas initiative launched in October, Taobao Hong Kong has achieved double-digit growth in both orders and gross merchandise value (GMV)—a metric that excludes canceled orders—on both a monthly and year-on-year basis.

The platforms are also targeting Chinese shoppers in Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore.

This year, unlike in previous years, shoppers could combine online discounts with a subsidy program introduced by the Chinese government to boost domestic consumption, primarily for home appliances and household products. Analysts suggest these incentives will likely boost sales for JD.com, which is known for selling high-quality large appliances and offering after-sales services.

While JD.com has yet to release sales or GMV figures for home appliances during the shopping festival, it is expected to share its June-September results, along with Alibaba, later this week.

Last year, data provider Syntun estimated that total GMV on major e-commerce platforms grew by only 2.1% to 1.14 trillion yuan, falling short of the 2.9% growth forecast for 2022. Similarly, consultancy Bain predicted that Singles’ Day sales would reach 1.15 trillion yuan in 2023.

On Tuesday morning, Alibaba announced “strong GMV growth” and a “record number” of active shoppers for this year’s Singles’ Day event.

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