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Pakistan: Helpless nation in crisis

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Pakistan is going through its worst historical point due to violent clashes and enormous confrontation between Imran Khan, the former Prime Minister of Pakistan and the country’s army general Asim Munir. The two sides are brazen out over the principle of governing the nuclear-country with a population of over 240 million.

The rift has come when Pakistan is on the verge of its economic collapse as well. Politically nothing is stable, but even socially and the rule of law is also fragile in the country. The society is so tense that even the army doesn’t let the people talk openly and in the last four days, beside men, several women were also arrested and beaten.

Economic inflation in Pakistan is unprecedentedly recorded and the value of the rupee has dropped significantly plus the unemployment has risen to its worst. It is worth mentioning that political fragmentation of Pakistan’s national sovereignty is threatened.

Pakistan is not trapped in a crisis in just recent years. The country has been in political crisis since its inception in 1947, where no Prime Minister had completed its five years term in office. All of them were either removed by the army or forced to resign and in some cases were targeted. But the current successive security, economic and political crises have put Pakistan into a doldrums, where the army for the first time failed in its attempt to put a leader behind bars. Munir’s men in uniform arrested Khan but that didn’t last. Khan’s supporters took to the streets across Pakistan and went violent in such a way that forced the Pakistan army to step back.

Khan’s arrest on 9th of May from inside Islamabad High Court sparked anger of the supporters who attacked the army headquarters in Rawalpindi and the houses of several army generals. These places are called as the most prestigious institutions of the country which are considered as the guardians of Pakistan’s territory against foreign enemies.

However, the workers of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Party (PTI) and tens of thousands of Khan’s supporters did not pay any attention to these places as their intention was only to get Khan out of jail. Finally Islamabad High Court on Friday granted Khan protective bail for two weeks and protection from arrest on any other charges he faces.

Khan may be re-arrested

The government of Pakistan under Shahbz Sharif’s rule has apparently been forced to release Khan through a court decision to quell pressure by violent demonstrations of Imran Khan’s supporters. Indeed, Khan has now become one of the most famous political leaders of Pakistan.

Before being released, Khan in a video message inside the court said that he was kept there for three hours. Khan said he has been abducted and accused the army of making security an issue for his release.

Khan was arrested in connection with a case of alleged land fraud, where the court called it “invalid” and “unlawful”.

Finally Khan was free and headed toward his residency in Lahore city. His supporters lined the streets to welcome him. Khan appeared in a YouTube channel, but his speech was not aired in any Pakistani media or major tv channels.

A member of his party said that Imran Khan could be rearrested anytime as he doubts the army’s intention. Zulfiqar Bukhari, a senior figure in Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party (PTI), said: “He is [expecting it], look, he has to appear in court again, I believe, on Monday.

“Are we going to be facing a similar sort of fiasco? I believe we are,” Bukhari told the nationalnews.

Bukhari, who is Khan’s special assistant during his time as prime minister, warned of a further deterioration in law and order in Pakistan, which is enduring the worst economic crisis in its history.

“He only has bail in this case for two weeks and then will we see the same kind of fiasco again? Yes,” he said.

Meanwhile, the country’s Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah said that Khan might be arrested after Wednesday. “If there is a reason for his arrest, then he will be arrested,” Sanaullah told Geo News, a Pakistani news channel.

Khan’s supporters allegedly torched government buildings

Khan’s supporters immediately took to the streets when Pakistani forces arrested him. After days of violent protest and unrest, the government of Pakistan accused Khan’s supporters of allegedly torching or destroying government buildings and the residences of army officials in several cities, including at the army forces headquarters in Rawalpindi.

However, Khan has dismissed the claims that his supporters were responsible for the violence, and said that his supporters and workers have remained peaceful in the last 27 years of the group’s political activities.

Supporters of Imran Khan clash with police outside the former prime minister’s residence in Lahore. (EPA-EFE)

“I want an independent and complete investigation on the burning of state buildings and firing at unarmed youth protesters. I want the chief justice of Pakistan to make a panel under him for this,” Khan said.

“Violence was incited by certain elements who were not PTI members,” Bukhari told the nationalnews. Bukari said that at least 47 people had been killed in a widespread crackdown on the PTI and its supporters.

“The majority of them, at point-blank, had bullets shot at them by the armed forces in their various forms,” Bukhari said. “We have about 300 people in prison and we have most of our top-tier leadership in prison as well so we mustn’t forget that. We’ve got many people injured, of course, in hospitals,” according to Bukari. However, police and hospital confirmed the death of nine people.

Khan slams Pakistan army for jumping into politics

Mr. Khan strongly criticized the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) and called on the army to stay away from politics. Rejecting allegations against him, he said the spokesperson of the army’s military wing was not even born when he represented Pakistan in the world.

“I kept Pakistan’s flag high all over the world. Never has ISPR made such a statement. You should be ashamed of yourself. You have jumped into politics. Why don’t you make a political party,” Khan said.

Khan’s remarks came in response to ISPR Director-General Major General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry’s statement in which he called Khan a “hypocrite”.

“Listen to me Mr. DG ISPR you were not even born when I was representing my country in the world and earning a good name for it. You need to be ashamed of yourself for calling me a hypocrite and anti-Army,” he said in a harsh rejoinder. Khan, 70, also tore into Pakistan’s Army chief General Asim Munir and blamed him for his “abduction” after a court set him free.

These accusations are not unprecedented in the political history of Pakistan, but what is unprecedented is Khan’s claim against the army generals, especially General Asim Munir, the army chief. In the last several decades, no politician had ever delivered a single word against the army chief, especially in public. Khan is the first man who is directly accusing the army chief. Khan also openly named a senior ISI general and accused him of planning to kill him. Khan survived an assassination attempt in November last year, but he received several bullets in his leg and he says that this attack was the work of ISI.

Middle East

Ceasefire talks in Gaza intensify before Trump visit

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Ceasefire and prisoner exchange negotiations in Gaza have accelerated ahead of US President Donald Trump’s planned Middle East visit in mid-May. It was claimed that Hamas agreed to release more Israeli hostages for a ceasefire, and the US promised to pressure Israel to start permanent ceasefire negotiations. In addition, the disarmament of Hamas under Egyptian supervision is on the agenda.

After the first phase of the ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement between Israel and Hamas, which came into effect in January, was completed, the Israeli administration did not agree to move on to the second phase, in which it had to end its occupation of Gaza. It requested that the first phase of the ceasefire be extended and, in return, Hamas release 11 Israeli hostages. Hamas, which wants to move on to the second phase of the ceasefire, responded to Israel’s new offer by saying that it could release 5 hostages. Israel rejected the proposal and restarted the Gaza attacks on March 18. Since then, attacks and ground occupation have continued, while negotiations for a ceasefire have also been conducted.

According to a report by Saudi Arabia-based El-Arabiya, Israel stated in its latest offer that it was ready to reduce the number of hostages to be released. It was reported that Hamas also agreed to release more hostages. However, no clear number was given.

If an agreement is reached under the proposed draft, the hostages will be released in two stages, and humanitarian aid will be allowed to enter the Gaza Strip.

In addition, it was stated that the US promised Hamas that it would force Israel into negotiations to end the war; it was noted that discussions on whether Hamas leaders could stay in Gaza were postponed to a later date.

The Saudi source also reported that, as part of a possible agreement, Hamas would provide medical reports on the health conditions of the hostages.

According to a report by Haaretz newspaper, based on Palestinian sources, the Cairo and Doha administrations are working with the US on a new phase of the ceasefire agreement reached in January. This phase will also include negotiations to end the 18-month war.

According to the news, Egypt submitted a permanent ceasefire proposal that includes the disarmament of Hamas and that this be done under Cairo’s supervision.

The report also stated that Hamas does not expect major results from the current negotiations, but believes there is an opportunity to reach a ceasefire agreement before US President Donald Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar in mid-May.

Meanwhile, according to Ynet, which conveyed its source without explanation, the US assured Hamas that if it agreed to release more than 8 hostages, Israel would participate in negotiations to end the war.

A Hamas official told AFP on Friday that the Cairo delegation, headed by the group’s chief negotiator, Khalil al-Hayya, hoped to achieve “real progress that would end the war, stop the attacks, and ensure the complete withdrawal of the occupying forces from Gaza.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said in a statement on Sunday evening that Netanyahu emphasized in his meeting with the family of hostage Eitan Mor that efforts to rescue the hostages held by Hamas were continuing “even at this very moment.”

The Times of Israel published on Friday, citing two officials close to the talks, that Netanyahu softened his demands after his meeting with Trump in Washington last week.

The officials who spoke to the newspaper said on Thursday that Israel had conveyed its official response to the latest Egyptian-mediated offer. According to this response, Israel is demanding the release of hostages in the first two weeks of the 45-day ceasefire and rejects Hamas’s previously proposed time-phased release plan.

In addition, the Israeli side wants to reduce the ratio of Palestinian prisoners to be released in exchange for each hostage. These prisoners include those sentenced to life imprisonment. The latest offer also requests the delivery of the bodies of 16 Israelis held in Gaza. In return, the bodies of Gazans held by Israel will be handed over.

On the other hand, it is claimed that Netanyahu has the support of his far-right coalition partners, who threatened to overthrow his government if he ended the war. However, opinion polls also show that the majority of the public supports ending the war in exchange for the release of the hostages. It is thought that only 24 of the 59 hostages held by Hamas are still alive.

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Middle East

Türkiye and Israel in Syria talks, likened to ‘Sykes-Picot’ agreement

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Israel and Türkiye have initiated direct contacts in Azerbaijan, citing the need to “avoid confrontation in Syria.” The Israeli press has interpreted these meetings as a path toward the de facto division of Syria. A former navy commander described the meetings as “a kind of Sykes-Picot agreement.”

Israel and Türkiye have begun technical-level talks in Azerbaijan to prevent a potential conflict in the Syrian arena after Bashar al-Assad. The primary goal of the meetings is to “reduce the risk of conflict in military movements on the ground and to determine the red lines of the parties.”

However, according to comments in the Israeli press, these contacts may signal a tacit agreement on the de facto division of Syria. Al-Mayadeen reported from Israeli media that Israel’s former Navy Commander Eliezer Marom made a striking comparison, saying, “A kind of Sykes-Picot agreement has been made between us and Türkiye.” According to Marom, “Syria will not remain a single and whole state; it will be fragmented. Türkiye also has interests in some of these fragments.”

Israeli television channel News 13 also interpreted the meetings in Azerbaijan as “a sign of a new era in which Syria will be geographically divided.”

Prior to these contacts, Israel’s attack on the T4 airbase in Syria had raised tensions. This base is alleged to be among the points where Türkiye plans to deploy militarily.

The first confirmation regarding the meetings came from Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. In a statement on CNN Türk, Fidan announced that technical negotiations had begun with Israel to establish a “non-conflict mechanism.” The Ministry of National Defense also announced that the first meeting took place in Azerbaijan. On the same day, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office also confirmed the direct talks, thanking Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev for his mediation.

Israel’s public broadcaster KAN reported that no agreement was reached at the meetings held on Wednesday, and the second round would take place after Passover, which ends on April 20. The same source also claimed that Türkiye did not allow the plane carrying Israeli officials to Azerbaijan to enter its airspace, and the plane had to take a circuitous route via Bulgaria and Greece.

Speaking to The Jerusalem Post, an Israeli official said that Türkiye establishing a military base, especially in the Palmyra region, is a red line for Israel, and this position was clearly conveyed to the Turkish side at the meeting in Azerbaijan. The same official stated that the new administration led by HTŞ leader Ahmed Shara (Abu Muhammad al-Julani) would be held responsible for possible threats against Israel in the Syrian arena.

Israeli Energy Minister Eli Cohen also expressed a cautious attitude towards the process, saying, “We do not want a conflict with Türkiye,” but he also emphasized, “We are against the Turkish military presence in Syria.”

However, in Israel, it is assessed that the Netanyahu government does not have many options to balance Türkiye’s influence in Syria.

Gallia Lindenstrauss, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), a semi-official institution reflecting the views of the Israeli security bureaucracy, told The Times of Israel, “Ultimately, when it comes to Syria, Türkiye is much more interested in and invested in that country than Israel is. Israel’s interest in Syria is only security-focused. This gives Ankara an advantage.”

Lindenstrauss also stated that US President Donald Trump’s support for President Tayyip Erdoğan further narrowed Israel’s room for maneuver.

Lindenstrauss made the following assessment: “President Trump made it clear during his last meeting with Netanyahu in Washington that he was willing to help Israel on the issue of Türkiye, but that Israel needed to make ‘reasonable demands’ for this to happen. Trump wants to force Israel into a more minimalist approach in Syria. Israel must prioritize and insist only on its most critical red lines, such as preventing the transfer of weapons from Iran to Hezbollah via Syria.”

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HTS-led Syria forms ties with South Korea

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Syria, which was an ally of North Korea (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) under the Assad regime, has signed a diplomatic recognition agreement with South Korea under the administration of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

According to Al Jazeera, this development is seen as a significant diplomatic achievement for HTS leader Ahmed Shara, who declared himself president. It also represents a strategic blow to North Korea, which has been an ally of Syria for years.

The agreement to establish diplomatic relations was signed yesterday evening in Damascus between South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul and Syrian Foreign Minister Assad Hasan al-Sheybani. Speaking at the ceremony, Minister Cho stated that South Korea is ready to contribute to the reconstruction of Syria with investments and humanitarian aid after 13 years of civil war.

Sheybani stated that they expect support from Seoul in easing the international sanctions on the Damascus government. This statement was also confirmed in a written statement by the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

It was reported that diplomatic negotiations between the two countries began in February, gained momentum with the approval of the South Korean cabinet, and were officially completed this week, according to the Yonhap news agency.

This development occurred at a time when both countries are undergoing a political transformation. In December, armed groups led by HTS overthrew the Assad regime and then formed a transitional government. South Korea is also facing a major political crisis. President Yoon Suk-yeol was removed from office last week by a decision of the Constitutional Court. In December, Yoon briefly declared martial law, claiming that “anti-state” and “North Korea-backed” elements had infiltrated the government, which drew strong reactions from the public and parliament.

The country is currently governed by an interim president, and a new leader will be determined by an early election to be held in June.

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