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Pascal Kohler – the herald of Kaja Kallas

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Editor’s Note: Moscow-based Swiss geopolitical analyst and legal expert Dr. Peter Hänseler responds to Swiss officer Pascal Kohler’s article published in ASMZ, which targets military analyst Jacques Baud. In his article featured on Forum Geopolitica, Hänseler proves that Kohler’s claims regarding subjects such as Bucha, Skripal, Navalny, and the Ukraine war contradict the actual statements found in Baud’s books, and accuses Kohler of plagiarizing from Wikipedia without citation. Furthermore, he points out that Kohler distorted Baud’s analyses to slander him, producing a smear piece with an amateurism unbecoming of an officer.


Kohler’s article in the Allgemeine Schweizerische Militär Zeitschrift (ASMZ)

On 30 December 2025, the ASMZ published an article by Kohler entitled «Kognitive Zermürbung: Die Logik hinter dem Fall Baud» (‘Cognitive attrition: The logic behind the Baud case’). This article is a vicious, defamatory attack on the most objective military analyst in the Western hemisphere, Jacques Baud.

In the lead-in to the article, Kohler does not describe the sanctions as ‘a blow to the freedom of expression of an individual’. He describes them as ‘rather a precise intervention in the logistics of modern hybrid warfare’, deliberately omitting what he believes ‘hybrid’ warfare to mean. Kohler thus insinuates that the EU is waging war – nota bene against a fellow Swiss officer – and that this justifies the suppression of freedom of expression. Kohler not only supports the EU’s sanctioning of Baud, but also assures the EU of the Swiss army’s support in this fight. It can be assumed that the Swiss army leadership is behind this strategy, otherwise a subordinate would not have written such an inflammatory article on the ASMZ website. However, I was unable to find any confirmation of this.

Kohler does not work carefully; rather, it seems that he did not even formulate his specific accusations against Baud himself, but simply copied them from Wikipedia, without citing the source, of course. This is plagiarism from a source that no serious geopolitician would touch.

On the ASMZ website, he describes his work as follows:

‘He is currently Head of International Cooperation & Training in the Operations Command, responsible for coordinating and implementing international training and engagements.’

— Pascal Kohler, ASZM

Whatever this verbiage may mean, Kohler is head of training, and as head of training, he must set an example. A role model does not copy information from Wikipedia without citing the source and sell it as his own. In addition, Kohler deliberately neglects the real sources completely; those sources that contain Baud’s statements – the books by Jacques Baud himself.

The work of Jacques Baud

Jacques Baud’s real statements on many geopolitical issues are exhaustively covered in his books, which are pure analyses and in which Baud relies exclusively on Western and Ukrainian sources.

In none of his publications has Baud ever taken sides in any of the conflicts he has analysed. Jacques Baud’s statements in his books are exhaustive, as he does not use social media channels. We therefore compare the statements made by Kohler with the statements actually made by Jacques Baud.

Preliminary remarks on the defamatory statements

I have carefully read all the passages on all the topics raised by Kohler in his pamphlet in Jacques Baud’s books. Baud’s analyses are very accurate, detailed and clearly referenced with footnotes and sources, as befits a scientific work.

In order to make this article manageable for readers in terms of length, I will analyse Kohler’s slander regarding Butscha in detail by quoting longer passages from Baud’s books.

For the other topics – Skripal, Navalny, etc. – I will limit myself to quoting short passages from Baud’s work, which does not mean, however, that Baud has not written detailed analyses with references for all topics.


Bucha – 2022

Regarding Bucha, Kohler writes the following:

‘In the case of Bucha, he interprets the documented massacre as having been planned by the British and carried out by the Ukrainians – a thesis that contradicts German intelligence recordings of Russian soldiers’ conversations about killings and satellite images of corpses during the Russian occupation.’

— Kohler, 30 December 2025

Jacques Baud wrote the following in his book ‘Operation Z’ in 7.3.2:

“[…] What exactly happened there? No one knows. But some civilians were executed, while others appear to have been collateral victims of the fighting. As for responsibility, Ukraine accuses the Russian army, while Russia claims it was a fabrication.”

Baud describes the sequence of events as follows:

Date Incident/Facts
March 29 The Russian command decides to withdraw troops west of Kyiv toward Donbas to launch phase 2 of the operation.
March 30 The Russians are leaving.
March 31 Anatoliy Fedoruk, mayor of Bucha, announces the withdrawal of Russian forces on Telegram[i] with satisfaction. He makes no mention of corpses or massacres: “March 31 will be remembered in the history of our community of Bucha as a day of liberation. Liberation by our Ukrainian armed forces from the Russian ‘orcs’, the Russian occupiers. That is why I am declaring today a day of joy. A joyful day and a great victory for the Kyiv region! And we will certainly wait for there to be a great victory throughout Ukraine.”[ii]
March 31 The Ukrainian media company Unian confirms the withdrawal of Russian forces and reports on statements made by the mayor of Bucha, without mentioning the bodies or massacres in the city[iii].
April 1 Ukrainian forces are combing the area in search of saboteurs and Russian collaborators (a Ukrainian video shows Ukrainian paramilitaries asking to be allowed to shoot those who are not wearing blue armbands).
April 1 A video shows corpses on the street that have not been there for three weeks, but whose positions resemble those in the satellite images from March 11. Some are wearing white armbands, others have their wrists bound with white cloth, others have Russian aid packages with them, and others were executed in a basement.
April 2 Ukrainian blogger Dimitry Komarov roams the city and shows the damage left behind after the Russian troops withdrew. He makes no mention of corpses or massacres[iv]. On the same day, the Ukrainian news site Unian reports that special forces have “liberated the city from saboteurs and collaborators with Russian troops”[v]. The SAFARI unit of the Ukrainian police enters the city to carry out mine clearance and demining work in case the Russians have mined the city. The video[vi]shot by the unit does not show a massacre, but access to it via YouTube is restricted.
April 3 Ukraine accuses Russian forces of committing a massacre on the streets of Bucha. Reports of a mass grave actually refer to the exhumation of a previously registered burial site in the church cemetery on March 13.

On April 4, the New York Times publishes a satellite photo of the scene from March 11, 2022, almost three weeks before the “discovery” of the bodies[i] (the date of which is later changed to March 19 for no reason). Two facts are surprising: that the Russians allegedly left the bodies lying on the street for three weeks, even though they had carefully buried other victims in the area during that period, and that the bodies remained in exactly the same position during that entire time.

It is also known that the New York Times image was provided by Maxar, a company that works for the US government. We also know which satellites Maxar uses, their trajectory, their position at a given time, and their overflight times. Using this information and measuring the shadows, we can determine exactly on which day the photo was taken. A group of independent Russian analysts was able to determine that the photo was taken on April 1 at 11:57 GMT (2:57 p.m. local time) [ii]. This is confirmed by traces of a violent thunderstorm that hit the city on the night of March 31 to April 1. Strangely, Maxar does not provide images of this area for March 21 and 23, even though they are listed in the catalog.

Furthermore, other facts give cause for caution:

  • On April 4, the Pentagon announces that it is unable to confirm Russia’s responsibility in the Bucha affair.
  • Ukrainian Socialist MP Ilya Kiva[iv] reveals on Telegram that the Bucha tragedy was planned by the British intelligence service MI6 and carried out by the SBU[v].
  • In June 2022, Italian television station TG24 investigates the killings and crimes against civilians who allegedly collaborated with Russian forces and concludes that this was the case in Bucha.
  • Other images from Maxar taken in the same area at a different time “weigh” 100 MB, while the image of the “massacre” is barely 50 MB, suggesting that it has been manipulated to conceal manipulation.

None of this proves anything in itself, but it shows that what is presented to us as indisputable is anything but clear.

As Ignazio Cassis, Swiss Foreign Minister, explains:

“These are not war crimes unless a court has determined that they are.”

— Ignazio Cassis, April 7, 2022

Slander 1: Baud never wrote or said what Kohler claims

Baud never claimed that Bucha was planned by British intelligence. He clearly stated that no one knows what happened there.

In his remarks, Baud merely quotes a post on X by Ukrainian MP Ilya Kiva, who was murdered in Moscow on December 6, 2023. On December 6, 2023, the BBC reported that Kyva had been murdered by the Ukrainian secret service SBU.

Against his better judgment, Kohler is passing off the statement made by the murdered Kiva as a statement made by Baud.

Baud agreed with Federal Councilor Ignazio Cassis, who stated on Swiss television on April 7, 2022:

“These are not war crimes as long as no court has determined that they are.”

— Ignazio Cassis, April 7, 2022


Skripal – 2018

Regarding Skripal, Kohler writes the following:

“In the case of the attack on Skripal in 2018, he interprets the proven nerve agent as something else.”

— Kohler, December 30, 2025

Jacques Baud wrote the following in section 8.6.5 of his book “Fake News”:

We will limit ourselves here to two quotes from Baud’s book; the entire analysis can be found in the book.

“Furthermore, the initial report compiled after the victims were admitted to hospital mentioned fentanyl poisoning, as Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported in September 2018, without mentioning ‘Novichok’[i]. The Salisbury Journal of March 5 also mentions possible fentanyl poisoning[ii]

“The silence of the British and Western authorities on this issue suggests that the analysis was unable to confirm Russia’s guilt. But in fact, we know nothing about it.

Slander 2: Baud never wrote or said what Kohler claims

Baud does not interpret anything; he analyzes the official findings and statements with precise references and concludes that the analyses cannot confirm Russia’s guilt – nothing more.


Navalny – 2020

Regarding Navalny, Kohler writes the following:

“In the Navalny case in 2020, he claimed it was a mafia act, even though the use of Novichok was verified by independent OPCW certification laboratories and the involvement of FSB agents was proven.”

— Kohler, December 30, 2025

In his book “The Navalny Case,” Jacques Baud wrote the following in section 7.1:

“Analysis of the Navalny case shows that at every stage of the proceedings, the explanations that were systematically selected from the range of possible explanations were those that fit the narrative of poisoning with Novichok and thus must have been ordered by Vladimir Putin. The fact that Skripal and Navalny’s symptoms were completely different, that neither of them showed symptoms of nerve agent poisoning, that neither of them showed the long-term effects associated with Novichok poisoning, or that Novichok was also produced by Western countries, did not cause the media or politicians to exercise caution.

On the contrary, foreign policy is being shaped and measures with uncertain consequences are being taken based solely on the telephone “confession” of an agent whose identity and status no one could verify, and on secret military reports.”

“Since the reports from the German, French, and Swedish laboratories and the OPCW are classified as secret, we do not know their content. However, it can be assumed that if their conclusions had clearly confirmed the presence of Novichok, they would have been published in more detail.”

Slander 3: Baud never wrote or said what Kohler claims

Baud never used the term “mafia-like” as claimed by Kohler. In his detailed analysis, Baud merely concludes that the German, French, and Swedish laboratories were unable to verify the “desired” result. Kohler’s claims that Novichok and the involvement of the FSB have been proven are false.


Osama bin Laden – 2001

Regarding Osama bin Laden, Kohler writes the following:

“On historical events: Baud claimed that Osama bin Laden had nothing to do with September 11.”

— Kohler, December 30, 2025

Jacques Baud wrote the following in his book Gouverner par les Fake News (Governing by Fake News) – Section 5.4:

In June 2006, Rex Tomb, head of public affairs for the FBI, confirmed:

The reason “9/11” is not mentioned on the Osama bin Laden wanted poster is that the FBI has no evidence linking Bin Laden to “9/11”[iii] .

Slander 4: Baud never wrote or said what Kohler claims

Nowhere in his books did Jacques Baud ever claim that Osama bin Laden had nothing to do with September 11; he merely analyzed Western sources and concluded that not much was known about the origins of 9/11.


Cause-and-effect relationship Ukraine conflict – 2021

Regarding the Ukraine conflict in 2021, Kohler writes the following:

“He reverses the cause-and-effect relationship with regard to the invasion of Ukraine. He claims that Ukraine provoked Russia by attempting to recapture Donbass in 2022. To support his claims, he quotes a statement made by Zelensky’s advisor Arestovich in 2019, which, however, was an analytical warning of a possible Russian invasion, i.e., a security policy forecast that later tragically came true.”

— Kohler, December 30, 2025

Jacques Baud wrote the following in his book Ukraine Between War and Peace – Section 3.1:

“Ukraine’s accession to NATO is therefore only possible if Russia is unable to threaten it. Russia must therefore suffer a crushing defeat that destroys its economy, triggers a revolution and regime change, or even leads to the division of Russia into smaller entities. This is exactly what Arestovych explains: “Our price for joining NATO is a war against Russia and its defeat.” He even mentions the expected date of this war: “2021 or 2022”[iv] !”

Slander 5: What Kohler claims, Baud never wrote or said

Jacques Baud never reversed the cause-and-effect relationship regarding the invasion of Ukraine. He merely quotes from an interview with Olekseï Arestovych and explains his thoughts.


Conclusion

It is somewhat astonishing that a career officer in the Swiss army, who is also responsible for training, would write such an easily refutable pamphlet or hate speech against a former colleague, thereby stabbing a colleague who has been weakened by sanctions in the back. The question of whether he did so on behalf of a superior remains unanswered.

This pamphlet is characterized not only by malice, but also by an almost incomprehensible amateurishness. One can only hope that Jacques Baud will not let this primitive and actionable attack go unchallenged, but will hold this person, who does not deserve to wear an officer’s uniform, accountable. It remains to be seen how long this person’s superiors will stand by him. A training officer convicted of defamation would be a first for the Swiss Army.


References:

[i] Ron Synovitz, „Name Your Poison: Exotic Toxins Fell Kremlin Foes”, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, September 18, 2018

[ii] “Man found seriously ill in Maltings, Salisbury, is former Russian spy Sergei Skripal,” www.salisburyjournal.co.uk, March 5, 2018.

[iii] http://www.historycommons.org/entity.jsp?entity=rex_tomb_1

[iv] „Predicted Russian – Ukrainian war in 2019 – Alexey Arestovich”, YouTube, March 18, 2022 (https://youtu.be/1xNHmHpERH8).

[i]. Carole Landry, „The Horror in Bucha“, The New York Times, April 4, 2022 (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/04/briefing/russia-ukraine-war-briefing-bucha-warcrimes.html)

[ii]. https://t.me/rybar/30599

[iii]. „Pentagon can’t independently confirm atrocities in Ukraine’s Bucha, official says”, Reuters, April 4, 2022 (https://www.reuters.com/world/pentagon-cant-independently-confirm-atrocities-ukraines-bucha-official-says-2022-04-04/?taid=624b43bd3225ef0001288ec4)

[iv]. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illia_Kyva

[v]. https://t.me/intelslava/24353

[vi]. Jacopo Arbarello, „Guerra in Ucraina, la questione dei collaborazionisti filorussi” (War in Ukraine, the issue of pro-Russian collaborators), Sky TG24, June 7, 2022 (https://tg24.sky.it/mondo/2022/06/06/guerra-russia-ucraina-filorussi)

[i]. https://t.me/vityzeva/52988.

[ii]. „Bucha liberated from Russian invaders – mayor”, ukrinform.net, April 1, 2022 (https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3445989-bucha-liberated-from-russian-invaders-mayor.html).

[iii]. Violetta Orlova, „Мер Бучі підтвердив звільнення міста від російських військ”, Unian, April 1, 2022 (https://www.unian.ua/war/bucha-novini-mer-buchi-zayavlyaye-pro-zvilnennya-mista-vid-okupantiv-novini-vtorgnennya-rosiji-v-ukrajinu-11769010.html).

[iv]„Буча после ухода русских военныхQ”, Kedrov Talks/YouTube, April 2, 2022 (https://youtu.be/72TZbAeKPSE).

[v]. Violetta Orlova, „У звільненій Бучі розпочали зачистку території від диверсантів та російських пособників”, Unian, April 2, 2022 (https://www.unian.ua/war/bucha-u-zvilnenomu-misti-rozpochali-zachistku-teritoriji-vid-diversantiv-ta-rosiyskih-posobnikiv-novini-kiyeva-11770498.html).

[vi]. https://youtu.be/Z7yIyNBMpQY.

Europe

Nokia and ICEYE sign deal to build sovereign Ukraine satellite network

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Nokia and space technology company ICEYE have signed a memorandum of understanding with Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence to establish a satellite communications network controlled directly by the Kyiv government.

A press release issued by Nokia noted that the parties will jointly assess the feasibility of implementing a Ukrainian-controlled communications system.

The agreement was announced on 22 October during the Finnish Prime Minister’s visit to Ukraine. The primary goal of the cooperation was described as bolstering the country’s defence capabilities, first and foremost by strengthening its independent satellite communications capacity.

Earlier in October, ICEYE and Nokia announced that they would jointly develop secure broadband communication systems operating in low Earth orbit for public institutions.

Designed for defence, border security, emergency services, and disaster response teams, these European-origin technologies are stated to allow states to directly own and independently operate their own satellites, ground infrastructure, and terminals.

In remarks on the matter, ICEYE Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder Rafal Modrzewski stated that Ukraine requires secure, sovereign, and high-capacity satellite communications systems under its complete control.

Mikko Hautala, Nokia’s Director of Geopolitical and Government Relations and Chairman of the Nokia Defence Board, pointed out that satellite networks ensure the continuity of communications even when terrestrial transmission infrastructure suffers damage.

Hautala said that together with ICEYE, they will explore how reliable and sovereign satellite communications can enhance Ukraine’s resilience and provide the Kyiv government with control over communications on which it depends.

Based in Finland, space company ICEYE develops and manufactures radar satellites and makes data obtained from these satellites available for use.

According to information shared by the company, its technologies are used in defence and intelligence, as well as in environmental monitoring, insurance, and emergency response operations.

Reports indicating that restrictions had been placed on the US satellite connection used by the Ukrainian military surfaced just before this agreement.

In a post on the night of 14 October, former Ukrainian Defence Ministry Adviser Serhiy Sternenko stated that terminals were losing connection when travelling at speeds of 160 kilometres per hour, and that these disruptions later began occurring at speeds of 60 to 70 kilometres per hour as well.

SpaceX head Elon Musk maintained that the US government owns and manages Starshield, the military version of Starlink, and that restriction decisions were therefore taken by US authorities.

The White House, meanwhile, stated that it had nothing to do with the restrictions.

According to a 22 October report in The Wall Street Journal citing US officials, US President Donald Trump personally asked Musk to lift the restrictions in question.

Following the discussion, US and Ukrainian officials stated that the system began operating more stably, while some Ukrainian representatives said functionality had not yet fully returned to its previous state. Trump confirmed that Ukraine’s Starshield access had been restored.

The restrictions met with backlash across Europe.

Accusing Musk of playing political games, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski posted on the X platform: “We are your European customers, we are watching you.”

Poland has purchased approximately 25,000 Starlink terminals for Ukraine since 2022 and continues to cover the satellite connection costs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Following these developments, the European Commission also announced that Ukraine’s inclusion in the Govsatcom programme is under consideration.

Bringing together the existing satellite capacity of EU member states, the secure communications programme is planned by Brussels to be expanded with commercial services at the start of 2027.

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Mélenchon’s “new France” vision triggers fierce cross-party debate

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Following the unrest in France this month, the country finds itself split between Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s project of a “new France” and Marine Le Pen’s call for “law and order”.

Triggered alongside the student revolt, the question of national identity has moved to the centre of the presidential race.

“This is Mélenchon’s ‘new France’,” said National Rally (RN) leader Jordan Bardella and Identity and Freedom (ID) party leader Marion Maréchal Le Pen, linking the scenes of violence directly to the phrase.

According to several recent speeches by the leader of France Unbowed (LFI), “new France” signifies a country transformed positively by immigration, women’s rights, shifting family structures, social mobility, and the political demands of younger generations.

Mélenchon contends that this optimistic vision can become a reality if voters elect him president next year.

Two Frances to clash this weekend

Yet as the April 2027 elections draw closer, Mélenchon’s vision of a “new France” has turned into a recurring target for Marine Le Pen’s party, the RN, because it encapsulates a fundamental rift over French identity.

While Le Pen’s party draws on nostalgia for a revived nationalist past, Mélenchon’s vision of a “new France” envisages a clean break with the old order.

These two visions appear set for a direct collision this weekend. Le Pen will stage a gathering in Orléans before 10,000 supporters, which RN officials say will focus on authority, French identity, and public order.

Mélenchon’s party, LFI, is expected to join demonstrations against the RN alongside other left-wing forces and trade unions in the historic French town associated with Joan of Arc, which Le Pen treats as a nationalist symbol.

Echoes of Sartre in “new France”: Change over essentialism

Defending the concept of “new France” against its critics, LFI argues that it cannot be understood without reading a little of the philosopher Jean-Paul Sartre and grasping the legacy accumulated from the left’s long ideological battles.

From a Sartrean perspective, “new France” is not a fixed, essentialist identity, but a fluid, changing reality.

Rather than declaring “this is who we are”, this outlook is grounded in “this is what we live through”, describing the varied realities confronted by precarious workers, women, people of non-French origin, and young voters.

According to this view, their lived experiences fit neither the right’s nor the left’s traditional national representations.

Mélenchon identifies women as the face of the “new France”. This category also encompasses blended families, young people, LGBT rights, long-distance commuters, and French citizens whose ancestors were born abroad.

Broadsides from the right, criticism from the left

Although he has used the phrase for years, pollsters note that it has become increasingly prominent as identity politics has come to occupy a larger share of his campaigning.

For critics across the political spectrum, “new France” implies casting “old France” aside.

Conservative Bruno Retailleau, for example, describes it as “the end of France”.

Former LFI ally François Ruffin criticises Mélenchon from the left. In Ruffin’s view, the LFI leader is trading class-based political appeal for an appeal directed at diverse urban electorates, sacrificing working-class towns and deindustrialised regions in the process.

Others dismiss the phrase as a slogan fabricated to drive polarisation across every cultural fault line.

Promoting the concept in May ahead of the French municipal elections, Mélenchon said: “The new France is not one part of France set against another; it is the whole of France.”

A month later, he noted that crowds at his rallies chanted “On est chez nous!” or “This is our home!”

Usually associated with far-right gatherings through the variant “France belongs to us”, the slogan, according to Rapporteur, offers a simpler expression of what the two camps are actually contesting: who gets to define French identity, and who feels at home in France.

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EU unveils Arctic plan targeting military corridors and resources

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The EU is developing plans to enhance its military mobility in the Arctic and aims to establish “multimodal military movement corridors” across the High North.

According to a report by German Foreign Policy, this initiative was outlined in the EU’s new Arctic strategy presented by the European Commission in Brussels on Tuesday.

Under the strategy, a complex logistics network consisting of “ports, airports, and their inland connections” will be created across the Arctic, designed to “remain operational even under adverse weather conditions.”

The strategy paper also announces that “exercises or stress tests” will be conducted to ensure the smooth deployment of military forces and capabilities to the Arctic.

Through this strategy, the EU is responding to the reality that climate change-driven Arctic ice melt is facilitating access to regional natural resources while opening new sea routes, such as the Northeast and Northwest Passages, which can now be used for both commercial and military operations.

The Arctic strategy aims for greater independence from the US and envisages laying a “pan-Arctic” submarine cable running from Europe through the polar region to East Asia.

Arctic natural resources

The EU’s new Arctic strategy addresses, among other topics, the natural resources located in the Arctic, both beneath the seabed and on land.

Due to thawing ice, these resources are already accessible or will soon become easier to reach, and Brussels supports their extraction.

Specific projects highlighted include a rare earth element extraction venture near Kiruna in northernmost Sweden and a plan to mine molybdenum in eastern Greenland.

Departing from its previous 2021 Arctic strategy, the Commission no longer advocates an outright ban on oil, gas, and coal extraction in the Arctic within a multilateral framework.

This policy shift comes as Norway has emerged as the bloc’s most vital natural gas supplier, providing approximately 30% of all its natural gas imports following the EU’s phased reduction of Russian energy imports.

However, production from Norway’s existing fields is expected to decline in the 2030s. Consequently, Norway plans to explore new deposits in the Barents Sea, where vast reserves are estimated to lie.

Dependent on raw material supplies from Norway as well as strategic cooperation with Oslo, the EU no longer opposes these exploration plans.

New sea routes opened by melting ice

The EU is also turning its attention to the gradual opening of new Arctic shipping routes.

For instance, the Northeast Passage, running along Russia’s northern coastline from East Asia to Europe, is now open to navigation between August and October.

This route is considerably shorter than the conventional transit via the Indian Ocean, significantly reducing shipping costs, especially in light of current oil prices.

A Chinese shipping firm launched regular services via the Northeast Passage this summer, while a South Korean vessel recently returned to the port of Busan after completing its maiden commercial voyage along the corridor.

Although used by few vessels to date, the Northwest Passage has also come into operation as a route extending from the North Atlantic through Canada’s northern archipelago and north of Alaska toward East Asia.

Experts believe that, during the summer months, this passage could offer advantages over the traditional route via the Panama Canal “for certain vessel types and transport routes.”

The emergence of new military capabilities was underscored in September when four Russian warships navigated the Shokalsky Strait between two Russian Arctic islands for the first time in history.

Military mobility in the High North

This development represents another driver behind the EU’s new Arctic Strategy placing particular emphasis on military aspects.

Russia has been strengthening its Arctic military positions for some time, partly because the headquarters of its Northern Fleet, which hosts part of its second-strike capability, is located on its north-western coast, and partly because its exceptionally long northern coastline remains strategically vulnerable.

NATO has likewise been expanding its activities in the Arctic considerably, holding numerous exercises across northern Finland, Sweden, and Norway, as well as in Iceland and Greenland, alongside its new “Operation Arctic Sentry.”

The strategy document states that the EU must now strengthen its own posture in the Arctic.

This objective is to be pursued both in cooperation with NATO and through independent EU measures.

For example, situational awareness must be enhanced, including by leveraging EU satellite systems, particularly Copernicus and Galileo.

Additionally, the planned IRIS2 satellite constellation, conceived as Europe’s counterpart to Starlink, should be expanded to cover the Arctic to improve communications.

To coordinate these initiatives, the EU plans to establish a Maritime Security Centre.

The EU places special emphasis on military mobility in the Arctic. According to the document, rapid and large-scale troop deployments must be feasible in the region at any time if required.

To this end, “multimodal military movement corridors” incorporating ports, airports, and their inland connections need to be established.

These facilities will be designed as a unified, complex logistics system “capable of remaining operational even under adverse weather conditions.”

Realising this plan will require preparation for “ice clearance,” “the handling of heavy and oversized military vehicles on frozen ground,” and “the rapid repair of damaged infrastructure.”

Looking ahead, the EU is urged to organize “exercises or stress tests focused on the smooth deployment of forces and military capabilities to and within the Arctic” in cooperation with NATO or like-minded partners.

Viewing these capabilities as vital for “credible deterrence,” the EU also underscores the need for its own icebreaker fleet to clear pathways through the ice for warships.

The Arctic’s role in “strategic autonomy” vis-a-vis the US

Throughout this process, the EU is not only adopting a clear stance toward Russia, but is also pursuing greater independence from the US.

On one hand, the strategy encourages deepening ties with Greenland, which is part of Denmark, does not belong to the EU, and has faced threats of US annexation. The document designates this relationship as a cornerstone of the new Arctic strategy.

On the other hand, the text calls for intensifying cooperation as part of a “Northern Neighbourhood” strategy with Norway, Iceland, and Canada, as well as with the UK, which occupies a strategically advantageous position despite not being an Arctic coastal state.

The EU maintains a security and defence dialogue with Norway, holding its fifth session this past April, alongside launching an “Arctic Dialogue” with Oslo this year.

Canada is classified by the European Commission as a “natural ally” in the Arctic. Observers note that while Canada is mentioned dozens of times throughout the strategy, the US is cited only a handful of times.

This contrast is seen as evidence that the EU is seeking independence from Washington in the High North.

Accordingly, the document explicitly references “European strategic autonomy” as an “integral component of the Arctic.”

Pan-Arctic cable plan extending to Japan

The EU Arctic Strategy also identifies Japan and South Korea as cooperation partners in the region.

This partnership is linked to plans to connect Greenland to the EU via a submarine cable, which would subsequently be extended across the Bering Strait to Japan and South Korea.

Berlin has advocated the construction of such a “pan-Arctic cable” for some time.

According to a statement issued in early July by the Berlin-based German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), such an infrastructure project is highly desirable for multiple reasons.

First, data traffic between Europe and Asia, 90% of which currently passes through the Red Sea and the strait between Djibouti and Yemen (Bab el-Mandeb), “suffers from a high failure rate and a lack of redundancy.”

Furthermore, the Arctic route is “significantly shorter,” resulting in reduced latency and fewer transmission delays.

International equity trading in particular stands to benefit from “real-time data transmission” enabled by a new polar cable link.

SWP outlines two potential routes for the cable: one running west of Greenland and the other running east.

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