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Pelosi’s gamble could turn the risk of war into a reality

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The echoes of the visit to Taiwan by the US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi, are still resonating. The visit, which is considered by some experts to be Pelosi’s “personal solo-show”, and by other experts to be a “part of Washington’s Asia-Pacific Strategy” has also sparked a massive controversy within the United States itself.

Beijing has already warned that it will take drastic countermeasures, considering Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan as a “violation of its national sovereignty and territorial integrity”. Even the Biden administration is known to have notified the possible risks of the visit to the Pelosi’s office. Despite this, this action from the Speaker of the US House of Representatives Pelosi, who refrained to step down from her plan, has drawn reactions as a part of its consequences that further escalated tensions in the Asia-Pacific, and was described as a “provocation” among the international community.

Following Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, Beijing has announced to halt some of its dialogue partnerships and cooperation mechanisms with Washington as an immediate countermeasure. It was not only China that show a reaction to Pelosi’s visit. The Taiwanese policy of Nancy Pelosi, which insisted on taking this visit despite the notice from both the US Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Biden administration, has both created a controversy back in the US, and has made Washington’s Taiwan policy to be questioned once again. Washington’s controversial actions in Taiwan, despite its announcement of respect for the One-China policy, has led to criticism within the US public opinion.

‘Policy of Strategic Uncertainty’

According to a White House official who provided information about the internal negotiations anonymously to the Washington Post; Nearly all senior members of the Biden’s office of national security, have privately expressed deep concerns about this trip and the timing of it. Officials have summarized the possible outcomes of Pelosi’s visit directly to her office, and the Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mark A. Milley has personally briefed Pelosi on this subject.

The article also states that Pelosi’s visit was independent of the White House and that nothing had changed in China-US relations, prior to this visit. However, Chinese leaders fear that visits to Taiwan by foreign state officials may potentially give Taiwan a diplomatic legitimacy as an independent country, and that they worry Pelosi’s visit may set an example by some other world leaders or officials. On the other hand, there are references to the upcoming National People’s Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, and Xi Jinping’s plans for a third term in leadership. And in the case of Washington’s policies on Taiwan, a policy of “strategic uncertainty” that neither supports nor opposes Taiwanese independence, is being reported.

Was it even worth it?

In the analysis article published in The Atlantic journal, Pelosi’s visit was described as a ‘gamble’ and was commented that “this Taiwan gamble strengthens the tendencies within US-China relations that can lead both countries towards conflict in East Asia”. It was reported that the policymakers in Washington see the country’s future being heavily dependent on Asia and are determined to expand the alliances in the region to consolidate US influence in Asia, and to bring China in check.

While it is stated that Taiwan is directly on the fault lines between the two rivaling powers and their geopolitical agendas, these agendas are summarized as follows; “For the United States, Taiwan is not only a long-term friend, but also an important economic partner and a link in the network of democracies that support the American influence in the Asia-Pacific. And for China, it is an indispensable component of the country’s ascension to a superpower status”.

The analysis expresses concerns that Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan could resonate far beyond the Taiwan Strait and even beyond East Asia, prompting Beijing to “intensify its efforts to thwart the US-backed global order” and for Xi Jinping to consolidate its anti-American pact with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. It is argued that all this could cause a greater chaos in East Asia, and with China’s intensified military exercises around the island could turn into a conflict, thus further disrupting the already troubled global supply chains. Article referring to the possibility that Beijing will increase its pressures over Taiwan and perhaps even take the risk to go to war, and that the US and its allies may be dragged into a regional conflict, the article describes Pelosi’s visit as “a step in a process transforming a war over Taiwan from a remote possibility to a real risk that should worry the world.”

It is being reported that there are rough debates among the country’s public opinion over whether Pelosi’s visit was even “worth it”, in context of these possibilities which make the war much more probable. While it was given that realists who look at the situation with a “cold logic” agree that “it was not worth it”, while The Atlantic argues that “Pelosi’s persistence is necessary to show the Chinese and to the world that the United States does not take a step back”.

Salami slicing…

Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia Program of the German Marshall Fund, points to the Biden administration’s inconsistency in its Taiwan policy, as one of the causes of this crisis, in a podcast of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), one of the institutions that shape the US foreign policies. Glaser stated that the US has a lack of clarity, consistency and even a lack of discipline in its stance on Taiwan, and that although Washington says it respects One-China Policy and does not support Taiwanese independence on paper, still acts much differently from this perspective. Glaser resembles this policy to a “salami slicing” strategy, and says China is well-aware of this tactic and therefore reacted strongly to Pelosi’s visit.

The only winner here is Pelosi

An expert on China at the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based think tank, Shirley Martey Hargis argues that this visit to Taiwan is not a strategically reliable decision since it will lead to a deterioration in the US-China relations, and in the relatively peaceful environment of East Asia. According to Shirley, there is only one long-term winner here: and that would be Pelosi herself. Saying that the visit has unnecessarily escalated tensions with China, Shirley also commented that it positions the United States in a two-front war, one front in Ukraine and one in Taiwan. Shirley says Taiwan “remains as a passive player in the US-China wrestling”.

A provocative action

The New Yorker journal has called Pelosi’s visit as “provocative politics”. The article, which argues that Pelosi’s initial aim was to provide a “small cheerleading”, while emphasizing that eventually the domestic politics of the US and China came into play and that Taiwan has gotten itself into a position of “a pawn caught in the middle”.

Noting that this action did not benefit Taiwan, but likely harmed Taiwan’s own security and “made US-China relations, which were already pretty bad, worse than they were before” the article also comments that “recovery may be much more difficult than we thought three weeks ago”

While it is argued that American politicians “have to be strategic and thoughtful about the cost and benefit of a particular action unless they actually want to drive the most important diplomatic relationship in the contemporary world into the ground”. It is stressed in the article that Pelosi’s solo-show also puts the Taiwanese government in a very difficult position.

This will make matters much worse

CNBC described the visit as “like pouring salt in an open wound for China”. Stephen Roach, a Yale University senior fellow and former Federal Reserve economist, has told CNBC that this visit to Taiwan has increased the US-China tensions and the risk of alienating these countries. “We are on a trajectory of escalating conflict, and this will certainly make matters worse,” Roach said, calling the visit a “new headache” for the Biden administration.

The economist Roach stated that this trip put China on the defensive and forced Beijing to show its determination to continue Taiwan’s eventual reunification with the mainland, while noting that he did not expect any overt military action from Beijing despite the current situation.

CNN channel also noted that Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan risks creating more instability between the United States and China. The analysts stated that this visit has sparked a harsh “rhetorical response” between the two countries, while also fueling fears in Washington that it would cause Beijing to “build an unprecedented escalation of the crisis in the Taiwan Strait”.

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South Korea emerges as major beneficiary of shifts in global arms market

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22/06/2026

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Uncertainty in the global arms market, driven by the United States reassessing its relationships with allies and a broad rearmament drive across many countries, is creating major commercial opportunities for South Korea. According to an analysis published by Politico, Seoul has become the world’s fastest-growing supplier of military equipment.

The report said that large-scale conflicts around the world have created urgent demand for weapons as countries seek both to support allies and strengthen their own defenses against potential future confrontations. At the same time, changes in the US role within the global arms market have opened new opportunities for South Korean manufacturers. Statements and policy decisions by US President Donald Trump regarding NATO have led allies to question Washington’s reliability in times of crisis, increasing uncertainty across the global market. In addition, the diversion of a large share of US weapons supplies to the Middle East because of ongoing conflicts has placed further strain on already overstretched supply chains.

European countries increase purchases from South Korea

Faced with what Politico described as the Trump administration’s more distant approach toward allies, European countries in particular have accelerated arms purchases from South Korea. The publication noted that Seoul’s growing influence as a supplier has been driven largely by major defense contracts signed with Poland.

Following the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, several Eastern European capitals, including Warsaw, transferred portions of their military inventories to Kyiv, relying on German support to replenish their arsenals. However, Berlin’s slow pace in replacing allied stockpiles generated frustration across the region.

South Korea emerged as an alternative supplier during this period and became a reliable source of military equipment for Eastern European countries. Poland became Seoul’s largest customer through a $13.7 billion agreement covering the purchase of tanks, rocket launchers, self-propelled howitzers and other military equipment.

“We were originally preparing against North Korea, but now we are ready to provide these solutions to customers around the world,” said Choo Hyung-kim, head of the Security Management Institute, a defense analysis organization affiliated with South Korea’s National Assembly.

Lack of political baggage gives Seoul an advantage

Politico reported that one of the greatest advantages enjoyed by South Korean defense companies is the absence of the “political baggage” associated with major arms exporters such as the United States, China, Russia and Israel.

According to the figures cited, the combined projected revenue of South Korea’s largest defense companies, including Hanwha Group, Hyundai Rotem, LIG Nex1 and Korea Aerospace Industries, is expected to reach approximately $37 billion in 2026. That would represent a fourfold increase from their combined revenues in 2021.

Meanwhile, an official from the office of former South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol told the Yonhap news agency in 2024 that the scale of any weapons shipments to Ukraine would depend on Russia’s approach to its relationship with North Korea. Seoul later clarified that it had no plans to provide ammunition directly to Ukraine.

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DeepSeek raises $7.4 billion in funding round, surpasses $50 billion valuation

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18/06/2026

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Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek has raised more than 50 billion yuan ($7.4 billion) in its first funding round. According to Reuters, citing The Information, the company’s valuation has surpassed $50 billion.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that the capital will be used to support the costly development of advanced artificial intelligence technologies.

According to the newspaper, citing sources familiar with the matter, investors valued the company at more than $50 billion. The valuation makes DeepSeek the most valuable AI startup in China.

DeepSeek founder Liang Wenfeng reportedly owned about 90% of the company before the funding round. Liang is said to have contributed roughly $3 billion during the fundraising process, making him the largest participant in the round.

According to Reuters, the transaction was structured in an unusual way that allows Liang to retain control of the company.

Rather than investing directly in DeepSeek, investors were required to invest through a limited partnership managed by a senior executive of the startup. Under the arrangement, investors were not granted voting rights. The report also said restrictions were placed on the use of invested funds for a period of five years.

The sole exception was the China National Artificial Intelligence Industry Investment Fund. The fund reportedly invested approximately $150 million directly in DeepSeek, allowing it to retain both voting rights and full discretion over its stake.

Other major investors in the funding round included Tencent, which invested approximately $1.5 billion, and Contemporary Amperex Technology, which invested about $740 million.

Bloomberg previously described the transaction as one of the largest fundraising rounds undertaken by a Chinese startup. According to the agency, the investment marks a new stage in the efforts of leading Chinese AI companies to compete with their US rivals.

DeepSeek told prospective investors that it would prioritize foundational and transformative AI research over short-term commercialization.

Based in the Chinese city of Hangzhou, DeepSeek emerged as one of Beijing’s most prominent AI companies after unveiling a more powerful and lower-cost model more than a year ago. The WSJ reported that interest surrounding the company has accelerated AI adoption in China and increased investor appetite for domestic startups.

Liang Wenfeng has previously said he intends to continue developing open-source AI models and ultimately aims to achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI). According to Bloomberg, the strategy continues an approach that has contributed to the spread of open models and influenced companies across China’s AI market, including Alibaba’s Qwen platform.

Bloomberg added that while global rivals such as OpenAI and Anthropic are exploring public offerings and revenue-generation strategies, DeepSeek has maintained its “research first” approach.

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China issues white paper on global governance reform, urging support for UN-centered international system

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7 days ago

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17/06/2026

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China’s State Council Information Office on Wednesday released a white paper titled “A More Just and Equitable Global Governance: China’s Principles, Proposals and Actions.”

The white paper was issued to introduce China’s principles, proposals, and actions regarding global governance, to foster a broader consensus within the international community, to enable more effective responses to global challenges, and to build a more just and equitable global governance system.

The document states that global governance is a common endeavor concerning the well-being of all humanity, and that building a just and equitable global governance system is a shared vision long pursued by people around the world. It also emphasizes that China has always been an active participant, contributor, and builder of global governance.

According to the white paper, in the new era, Chinese President Xi Jinping has put forward the vision of building a community with a shared future for mankind. Advancing a global governance system shaped on the basis of extensive consultation, joint contribution, and shared benefits, Xi has called for true multilateralism to promote an equal and orderly multipolar world and an economic globalization that is inclusive and beneficial for all.

In 2025, Xi proposed the Global Governance Initiative (GGI). This initiative was designed to offer China’s solutions to two urgent questions of the era: What kind of global governance system should be established, and how should global governance be reformed and improved?

The white paper notes that shortly after its introduction, the GGI received support from approximately 160 countries and international organizations, with more than 60 countries joining the Group of Friends of the Global Governance Initiative. It states that the international community is of the view that the GGI sends a clear message: to defend multilateralism, join forces, and strive for a just future.

According to the white paper, the GGI aligns with the growing trend toward greater democracy in international relations and strengthens international confidence in the practice of multilateralism. The initiative provides a clear and actionable roadmap for the improvement of global governance, injecting valuable stability and positive energy into a turbulent world.

The white paper emphasizes that China proposed the GGI to accelerate the construction of a more just and equitable global governance system. The document states that firmly defending the authority and status of the United Nations is of fundamental importance for the effective implementation of this initiative.

According to the white paper, success will also depend on major countries acting with a sense of responsibility and all nations working together in unity to bridge deficits in peace and development. It states that rather than attempting to reinvent the wheel, all countries must firmly defend the international system with the UN at its core, maintain the international order based on international law, and uphold the fundamental norms of international relations based on the purposes and principles of the UN Charter.

In addition to the preface and conclusion, the white paper consists of five chapters: “Today’s World Faces Severe and Complex Challenges,” “The Global Governance Initiative Responds to the Challenges of Our Era,” “China’s Contribution to the Development of Global Governance,” “Directing the Course of Change Toward a Bright Future,” and “Advancing Hand in Hand at a Critical Juncture in History.”

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