Asia

Political earthquake in Japan: Leadership race begins in LDP

Published

08.09.2025 14:50

Following major defeats in the House of Councillors elections after the House of Representatives elections, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation on Sunday, September 7, unable to withstand the intense pressure to step down from within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

Having lost its majority in both the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors, the LDP-Komeito government will now move past the debate over who is responsible for this defeat and focus on building a new political system. However, establishing a system that will allow them to remain in power appears more difficult than ever. As the situation within the LDP becomes increasingly complex, some factions argue that the party’s future should be entrusted not to popular figures like Sanae Takaichi or Shinjiro Koizumi, but to lesser-known politicians.

The Ishiba–Koizumi Meeting

The expected outcome in political circles was once again quite dramatic. Some veteran Japanese journalists had predicted that Prime Minister Ishiba would resign before the special presidential election scheduled for the 8th. The fact that more than 120 LDP lawmakers called for an emergency election and nearly half of the prefectural assemblies took a similar stance indicated that his resignation was inevitable.

The Ishiba–Koizumi meeting, which took place at the Prime Minister’s Official Residence on the evening of September 6, determined the course of events. Ishiba held two-hour meetings, first with Vice President Yoshihide Suga and then with Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Shinjiro Koizumi. According to sources, Koizumi tried to persuade Ishiba by stating that the majority of the public wanted a presidential election, saying, “If the conflict continues, the LDP will surely split. You need to resign to maintain party unity.”

“The Same Faces Involved in the Resignation Drama,” Just Like Four Years Ago

These developments create a sense of déjà vu from four years ago. On August 31, 2021, Koizumi had persuaded then-Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga during a similar crisis, forcing him to change his election strategy. At that time, Suga was facing the risk of losing the presidential election, and to resolve the situation, Hiroyuki Moriyama, Chairman of the National Diet Affairs Committee (now Secretary-General), urged him to dissolve the Diet. Perhaps Koizumi’s persuasion efforts were effective, as Suga withdrew his bid for re-election and announced his resignation.

After the announcement, Koizumi met with Suga and told reporters in tears:

“I am very grateful.”

Meanwhile, Koizumi did not run in the LDP presidential election at that time, instead supporting Taro Kono along with Ishiba. Ishiba also decided not to run, and for this reason, the pair was dubbed the “Koishi-Kawa Alliance.” Kono later distanced himself from the coalition, but the “Koishi” alliance remains alive and strong. Looking at the drama surrounding this resignation announcement, it is clear that the same actors—Ishiba, Koizumi, Suga, and Moriyama—are involved, and the script so far is almost identical to that of four years ago.

However, the critical question this time is: Will Koizumi move from a supporting role to the lead?

Taro Aso’s Power and Reckoning

Another key factor that will determine the outcome of the presidential election is whether former Prime Minister Taro Aso (the party’s Vice President), one of the central figures in the camp that brought down Ishiba, will be able to lead in political affairs.

Aso holds a deep-seated animosity towards Ishiba. When the LDP suffered a crushing defeat in the 2007 House of Councillors elections, Ishiba harshly criticized then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was trying to stay in office, and called for his resignation.

Aso, an ally of Abe, was angered and said that someone who had once left the LDP had no right to say such a thing. Moreover, in 2009, as Aso was struggling with declining approval ratings following the Lehman Shock, it was Ishiba who publicly called for his resignation, despite still being a member of Aso’s cabinet.

In last year’s LDP presidential election, driven by his animosity for Ishiba, he supported Takaichi at the last minute in the second round of voting. Even when efforts to oust Ishiba emerged after the House of Councillors elections, he was more determined than even the members of the former Abe faction implicated in illegal funds.

Some younger LDP members were shocked by Aso’s attempt to mobilize the only remaining faction within the party to overthrow Prime Minister Ishiba. Some say it is a sign of an old man’s single-mindedness or a delusion.

It is uncertain whether Aso will be able to maintain his influence within the LDP going forward.

The Rise and Uncertainty of Sanae Takaichi

Sanae Takaichi, who gained prominence with the support of Shinzo Abe in last year’s LDP presidential election, narrowly lost to Ishiba in the second round. Now, with Ishiba’s resignation, Takaichi has once again become a strong candidate. However, her base within the party is weakening, especially since half of the lawmakers who supported her have withdrawn from politics due to slush fund scandals.

Furthermore, the rise of the People’s Party and the Conservative Party of Japan is drawing some of Takaichi’s hard-right supporters to these new forces. Although she still ranks high in public opinion polls, it is noteworthy that in some surveys, she lags behind Koizumi and even Ishiba.

Potential Candidates After Ishiba

The LDP’s loss of its majority in the Diet [the Japanese parliament] makes it imperative for the new leader to be a pragmatic figure capable of negotiating with opposition parties. The prominent candidates include:

Yoshimasa Hayashi – Chief Cabinet Secretary, an experienced moderate conservative. He has good relations with the opposition. He is seen within the party as a “colorless, transparent, and risk-free” candidate.
Katsunobu Kato – Minister of Finance, has extensive political experience but is not well-known among the public.
Takeshi Saito – Former Minister of International Trade and Industry, a figure who stands out for his practical skills.
Shinjiro Koizumi – Highly popular, but his youth and lack of experience raise questions.
Sanae Takaichi – Although her public support is strong, the internal party dynamics could pose a challenge for her.
Takayuki Kobayashi – Considered one of the LDP’s “promising young” faces.

The format of the election is also crucial. If a “full-scale” election is held where party members can vote, the race could be between popular figures like Koizumi, Takaichi, and Kobayashi.

The LDP’s Future and Public Distrust

In the press conference announcing his resignation, Prime Minister Ishiba expressed his regret at having to leave office without achieving his goals. However, his delay in making a decision after the election defeat and the resulting “50-day political vacuum” created disappointment among the public.

For the Japanese people today, the real issue is not the LDP’s internal score-settling, but the establishment of a system that can provide solutions to fundamental problems such as the economy, inflation, energy security, and foreign policy. However, if this process gets bogged down in internal party power struggles, public trust in the LDP will be further eroded. In Ishiba’s own words:

“If the LDP loses the trust of the people, Japanese politics will easily surrender to populism.”

This warning indicates that Japanese politics is heading towards a major turning point in the coming period.

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China launches patrols east of Taiwan after Japan and Philippines open maritime boundary talks

Published

3 days ago

01/06/2026

Harici.com.tr

Beijing said it had conducted law enforcement patrols in waters east of Taiwan in response to a decision by Japan and the Philippines to launch talks on maritime boundary delimitation.

According to a statement from the China Coast Guard, a flotilla led by the vessel Daishan carried out law enforcement patrols “in accordance with the law” on Monday.

China Coast Guard spokesperson Jiang Lue said the operation was “a necessary action” in response to Japan and the Philippines “unilaterally announcing the start of negotiations on maritime delimitation in waters east of China’s Taiwan Island.”

“Such an announcement seriously infringes upon China’s territorial sovereignty and its maritime rights and interests,” Jiang said.

“We urge Japan and the Philippines to immediately cease all illegal actions that violate China’s sovereignty and rights,” he added.

Jiang also said the coast guard would continue strengthening its control and management of the relevant waters and that China would take concrete measures to “resolutely safeguard territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests.”

The United States and most of its allies, including Japan and the Philippines, do not recognize Taiwan as an independent state and acknowledge it as part of China. The United Nations has also adopted resolutions reflecting this position. However, Washington continues to provide arms to Taiwan as part of its broader efforts to counter China and encourages its allies to do the same.

Following a summit in Tokyo between Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the two countries said in a joint statement issued on Thursday that they had agreed to begin “formal negotiations” to delimit their exclusive economic zones (EEZs) and continental shelves.

Beijing condemned the planned talks as “completely illegal and invalid” and swiftly lodged formal diplomatic protests with both Tokyo and Manila.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on Friday: “The so-called delimitation negotiations are entirely illegal, invalid and void. They will have no impact whatsoever on China’s claims or on China’s exercise of its legitimate rights in the area east of Taiwan Island.”

The latest escalation comes at a time when relations between Beijing and both Tokyo and Manila are already strained. Japan and the Philippines are treaty allies of the United States, while China remains engaged in separate territorial disputes with Japan in the East China Sea and with the Philippines in the South China Sea.

As US attention and resources have increasingly shifted toward the war involving Iran, and as the White House has made the Western Hemisphere a strategic priority, Japan and the Philippines have stepped up diplomatic engagement in the region commonly referred to as the Indo-Pacific.

That effort has included building closer security and defence ties with other countries, prompting Beijing to accuse them of encouraging bloc confrontation in the region.

Japan and the Philippines do not share a maritime boundary. However, their seabed claims could overlap because both countries seek to extend their legal continental shelves beyond 200 nautical miles, equivalent to 370 kilometres or 230 miles.

The overlapping area lies east of Taiwan, southwest of Japan’s Ryukyu Islands and north of the Philippines’ Batanes Islands.

Yang Xiao, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China’s highest-ranking state-affiliated think tank, said Taiwan’s EEZ and continental shelf are part of the area under discussion.

“These are China’s rights and are not something that the two sides can negotiate among themselves,” Yang said.

In an interview published on Sunday by Yuyuan Tantian, a social media account affiliated with state broadcaster CCTV, before the China Coast Guard announced the patrols, Yang said Beijing would take “historic and unprecedented” countermeasures against Tokyo and Manila.

“Since they are negotiating in a three-party overlapping zone, we can also take further steps to advance our jurisdiction in the waters east of Taiwan,” Yang said.

“If the other side insists on reckless and destructive actions, we will inevitably introduce new countermeasures.”

Yang described the waters east of Taiwan as a vital maritime area for the island’s economic activities.

“If these waters are divided between Japan and the Philippines, that would clearly harm the interests of the people living on Taiwan Island,” he added.

Asia

SoftBank overtakes Toyota to become Japan’s most valuable company

Published

3 days ago

01/06/2026

Harici.com.tr

As artificial intelligence reshapes industrial structures in Japan and South Korea, stock market rankings are being redrawn. SoftBank Group has overtaken Toyota Motor to become Japan’s most valuable listed company.

SoftBank shares have surged as the global artificial intelligence rally gathers momentum, lifting the technology conglomerate’s market capitalisation above that of Toyota for the first time in more than two decades.

The shift reflects a broader reordering of Japan’s equity market. Automakers, alongside banks, steelmakers, energy companies and other traditional heavy industries, are losing ground to chipmakers and companies linked to artificial intelligence.

SoftBank shares jumped 14% on Monday, reaching a new record high. The company’s market value climbed to 48 trillion yen, or $301 billion, making it the most valuable company listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

Toyota had long held the top position, with a market capitalisation of approximately 45 trillion yen. The last time SoftBank surpassed Toyota was in March 2000, at the peak of the dot-com bubble.

SoftBank’s rapid rise has been driven by strong earnings performance and its substantial investment in ChatGPT developer OpenAI.

The Japanese company reported net profit of 1.82 trillion yen, or $11.4 billion, for the first three months of 2026, 3.5 times higher than in the same period a year earlier. The group is also increasing its investment in OpenAI, completing a $10 billion investment in April and committing to invest an additional $20 billion later this year. Total investment is expected to reach roughly $65 billion.

According to The Wall Street Journal, OpenAI plans to file for an initial public offering and aims to list in the United States as early as September. Some media reports suggest the company could seek to raise $60 billion through the offering, potentially valuing it at more than $1 trillion. Such a transaction could become the largest initial public offering in history.

Investors expect the IPO to significantly boost SoftBank’s investment gains. Those expectations have helped drive the technology group’s share price higher. SoftBank shares have risen about 127% since early April.

The company is also planning to invest up to 14 trillion yen in the construction of data centres in France.

Asia

China and Serbia agree to expand cooperation in emerging sectors

Published

1 week ago

26/05/2026

Harici.com.tr

Chinese President Xi Jinping met Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic in Beijing, where the two leaders discussed bilateral ties and oversaw the signing of multiple cooperation agreements. Xi also awarded Vucic the Friendship Medal of the People’s Republic of China.

The meeting between Xi Jinping and Aleksandar Vucic began with an official welcoming ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.

The two leaders then proceeded to formal talks. Xi said China and Serbia had achieved “positive results” since jointly launching the construction of a “China-Serbia community with a shared future in the new era” in 2024.

Xi said the partnership had not only benefited the two peoples but had also set an example for international relations.

The Chinese president described relations between China and Serbia as an “iron friendship” based on deep historical ties and mutual trust.

Calling on both sides to strengthen exchanges, deepen practical cooperation and continue supporting each other on issues concerning their core interests, Xi also said the two countries should align their development strategies and advance cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative. In this context, he pointed to transport, energy and infrastructure projects.

Xi also called for expanding cooperation in emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence, the digital economy, green energy and advanced manufacturing.

Aleksandar Vucic congratulated China on the start of implementation of its 15th Five-Year Plan. Vucic also expressed confidence in China’s future development under Xi Jinping’s leadership.

The Serbian president said Belgrade attached great importance to relations with China and firmly supported Beijing on issues concerning China’s core interests.

Vucic thanked Chinese companies for their contributions to Serbia’s economic development and infrastructure construction.

Saying the two countries had made notable progress since establishing their comprehensive strategic partnership, Vucic added that cooperation had expanded across numerous sectors.

The Serbian president also praised China’s role in international affairs, saying Beijing approached smaller countries on the basis of equality and respect and defended international law.

Following the talks, the two leaders witnessed the signing of more than 20 cooperation agreements covering politics, trade, science and technology, education, legal affairs and culture.

The two sides also issued joint statements on steadily advancing the construction of a China-Serbia community with a shared future in the new era and jointly supporting the implementation of four global initiatives.