Asia
Political earthquake in Japan: Leadership race begins in LDP
Following major defeats in the House of Councillors elections after the House of Representatives elections, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation on Sunday, September 7, unable to withstand the intense pressure to step down from within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).
Having lost its majority in both the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors, the LDP-Komeito government will now move past the debate over who is responsible for this defeat and focus on building a new political system. However, establishing a system that will allow them to remain in power appears more difficult than ever. As the situation within the LDP becomes increasingly complex, some factions argue that the party’s future should be entrusted not to popular figures like Sanae Takaichi or Shinjiro Koizumi, but to lesser-known politicians.
The Ishiba–Koizumi Meeting
The expected outcome in political circles was once again quite dramatic. Some veteran Japanese journalists had predicted that Prime Minister Ishiba would resign before the special presidential election scheduled for the 8th. The fact that more than 120 LDP lawmakers called for an emergency election and nearly half of the prefectural assemblies took a similar stance indicated that his resignation was inevitable.
The Ishiba–Koizumi meeting, which took place at the Prime Minister’s Official Residence on the evening of September 6, determined the course of events. Ishiba held two-hour meetings, first with Vice President Yoshihide Suga and then with Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Shinjiro Koizumi. According to sources, Koizumi tried to persuade Ishiba by stating that the majority of the public wanted a presidential election, saying, “If the conflict continues, the LDP will surely split. You need to resign to maintain party unity.”
“The Same Faces Involved in the Resignation Drama,” Just Like Four Years Ago
These developments create a sense of déjà vu from four years ago. On August 31, 2021, Koizumi had persuaded then-Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga during a similar crisis, forcing him to change his election strategy. At that time, Suga was facing the risk of losing the presidential election, and to resolve the situation, Hiroyuki Moriyama, Chairman of the National Diet Affairs Committee (now Secretary-General), urged him to dissolve the Diet. Perhaps Koizumi’s persuasion efforts were effective, as Suga withdrew his bid for re-election and announced his resignation.
After the announcement, Koizumi met with Suga and told reporters in tears:
“I am very grateful.”
Meanwhile, Koizumi did not run in the LDP presidential election at that time, instead supporting Taro Kono along with Ishiba. Ishiba also decided not to run, and for this reason, the pair was dubbed the “Koishi-Kawa Alliance.” Kono later distanced himself from the coalition, but the “Koishi” alliance remains alive and strong. Looking at the drama surrounding this resignation announcement, it is clear that the same actors—Ishiba, Koizumi, Suga, and Moriyama—are involved, and the script so far is almost identical to that of four years ago.
However, the critical question this time is: Will Koizumi move from a supporting role to the lead?
Taro Aso’s Power and Reckoning
Another key factor that will determine the outcome of the presidential election is whether former Prime Minister Taro Aso (the party’s Vice President), one of the central figures in the camp that brought down Ishiba, will be able to lead in political affairs.
Aso holds a deep-seated animosity towards Ishiba. When the LDP suffered a crushing defeat in the 2007 House of Councillors elections, Ishiba harshly criticized then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was trying to stay in office, and called for his resignation.
Aso, an ally of Abe, was angered and said that someone who had once left the LDP had no right to say such a thing. Moreover, in 2009, as Aso was struggling with declining approval ratings following the Lehman Shock, it was Ishiba who publicly called for his resignation, despite still being a member of Aso’s cabinet.
In last year’s LDP presidential election, driven by his animosity for Ishiba, he supported Takaichi at the last minute in the second round of voting. Even when efforts to oust Ishiba emerged after the House of Councillors elections, he was more determined than even the members of the former Abe faction implicated in illegal funds.
Some younger LDP members were shocked by Aso’s attempt to mobilize the only remaining faction within the party to overthrow Prime Minister Ishiba. Some say it is a sign of an old man’s single-mindedness or a delusion.
It is uncertain whether Aso will be able to maintain his influence within the LDP going forward.
The Rise and Uncertainty of Sanae Takaichi
Sanae Takaichi, who gained prominence with the support of Shinzo Abe in last year’s LDP presidential election, narrowly lost to Ishiba in the second round. Now, with Ishiba’s resignation, Takaichi has once again become a strong candidate. However, her base within the party is weakening, especially since half of the lawmakers who supported her have withdrawn from politics due to slush fund scandals.
Furthermore, the rise of the People’s Party and the Conservative Party of Japan is drawing some of Takaichi’s hard-right supporters to these new forces. Although she still ranks high in public opinion polls, it is noteworthy that in some surveys, she lags behind Koizumi and even Ishiba.
Potential Candidates After Ishiba
The LDP’s loss of its majority in the Diet [the Japanese parliament] makes it imperative for the new leader to be a pragmatic figure capable of negotiating with opposition parties. The prominent candidates include:
- Yoshimasa Hayashi – Chief Cabinet Secretary, an experienced moderate conservative. He has good relations with the opposition. He is seen within the party as a “colorless, transparent, and risk-free” candidate.
- Katsunobu Kato – Minister of Finance, has extensive political experience but is not well-known among the public.
- Takeshi Saito – Former Minister of International Trade and Industry, a figure who stands out for his practical skills.
- Shinjiro Koizumi – Highly popular, but his youth and lack of experience raise questions.
- Sanae Takaichi – Although her public support is strong, the internal party dynamics could pose a challenge for her.
- Takayuki Kobayashi – Considered one of the LDP’s “promising young” faces.
The format of the election is also crucial. If a “full-scale” election is held where party members can vote, the race could be between popular figures like Koizumi, Takaichi, and Kobayashi.
The LDP’s Future and Public Distrust
In the press conference announcing his resignation, Prime Minister Ishiba expressed his regret at having to leave office without achieving his goals. However, his delay in making a decision after the election defeat and the resulting “50-day political vacuum” created disappointment among the public.
For the Japanese people today, the real issue is not the LDP’s internal score-settling, but the establishment of a system that can provide solutions to fundamental problems such as the economy, inflation, energy security, and foreign policy. However, if this process gets bogged down in internal party power struggles, public trust in the LDP will be further eroded. In Ishiba’s own words:
“If the LDP loses the trust of the people, Japanese politics will easily surrender to populism.”
This warning indicates that Japanese politics is heading towards a major turning point in the coming period.
Asia
Russia and China narrow space race gap with US, reports indicate
Russia and China are progressively narrowing the space gap with the US, according to an assessment by The Washington Post (WP). The newspaper reported that the technological superiority of the US in this domain is beginning to erode, noting that fresh advancements achieved by Moscow and Beijing could create risks for Washington.
The newspaper pointed to China’s recent progress as an example of this trend. In August, a Chinese aerospace company successfully landed a rocket’s first stage on Earth for the first time.
Previously, only US-based companies SpaceX and Blue Origin possessed this technology. The ability to reuse rocket stages significantly reduces launch costs.
The WP also drew attention to Russia’s Rassvet satellite system, which is planned to deliver internet connectivity from space.
The newspaper noted that this system could be utilised by the Russian military. According to the assessment in the report, the Rassvet system could provide Russia with capabilities comparable to those offered by SpaceX’s Starlink satellite network.
According to the newspaper, among the primary challenges facing the US are ageing launch pads and other space infrastructure. Modernising this infrastructure requires securing additional funding from the US Congress.
The WP further emphasised the necessity of streamlining commercial launch licensing procedures, which currently can take an extended period.
Observing that the US maintains its superiority for now thanks to a robust private space sector, the newspaper stated that Washington must increase launch frequency and invest in infrastructure renewals to preserve its leadership.
According to a May 2025 report by The Times, the US has begun sharing certain data on Russian and Chinese space operations with Britain and other members of the “Five Eyes” intelligence alliance.
This measure was taken in line with Washington’s concerns over Beijing’s advances in military space capabilities. In this context, allies were granted access to intelligence from Space Delta 9, the US Space Force unit that tracks Russian and Chinese satellites.
Russia and China, meanwhile, continue to pursue joint space projects. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated in April 2025 that Moscow and Beijing have “grand” and “magnificent” plans in this field.
In 2024, Russia ratified an agreement with China regarding the International Lunar Research Station, which is planned to be established on the lunar surface or in lunar orbit.
Former NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine called on Russia, the US, and China in October 2025 to cooperate in space. Stating that the interests and activities of nations could intersect in space, Bridenstine said the parties could not operate alone.
Bridenstine also recalled that space cooperation between Moscow and Washington had commenced during the Cold War.
Asia
China-Nepal border flood leaves at least 160 dead, over 1,000 missing
A massive mudslide and flash flood struck the Gyirong Port area along the China-Nepal border on Wednesday, leaving at least 160 people dead on both sides of the frontier and more than 1,000 others missing. Search operations have been extended across both sides of the border.
According to the latest official information released during a press conference held by the Shigatse municipal government on Thursday morning, three fatalities have been confirmed on the Chinese side, whilst 558 people remain missing.
Two individuals were rescued alive. Following the expansion of search operations, the number of missing persons was revised upwards from an earlier figure of 265.
Chinese authorities have dispatched more than 1,500 personnel to the region, including firefighters, military troops, and engineering teams. Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing has also arrived at the scene to direct operations.
According to state broadcaster CCTV, a landslide dam lake has formed near the border crossing, complicating rescue efforts.
Nepal Police reported late Wednesday that 157 bodies had been recovered.
According to the Office of the Prime Minister of Nepal, the 484 missing tourists include 391 foreign nationals from at least 26 countries. These comprise 142 citizens from India, 47 from the US, 34 from Australia, 33 from the UK, and 24 from Canada.
Nepal Tourism Board spokesperson Sunil Sharma told the Associated Press that 133 of the missing tourists were Indian pilgrims.
The disaster struck Gyirong County in the Tibetan city of Shigatse at around 10:30 on Wednesday and originated on the Nepalese side.
The region is situated along an important pilgrimage route leading to Tibet’s sacred Mount Kailash and Lake Manasarovar. Particularly during this peak period of the year, hundreds of pilgrims from India and other countries visit the area.
Initial assessments by Nepalese authorities indicated that an earthquake may have triggered a collapse in the lower section of a glacier, releasing the destructive floodwaters.
Asia
India intel push on China risks dangerous miscalculation, study says
A Chinese scholar has warned that Indian intelligence agencies increasingly treating China’s routine activities as threats raises the risk that New Delhi could miscalculate and adopt “unilateral countermeasures” against Beijing.
According to Zhao Ruoxi, a researcher at the Macau University of Science and Technology, India stepped up its intelligence-gathering operations following the deterioration of relations with neighbouring China in recent years.
Zhao made the assessment in an article analysing Indian intelligence operations targeting China across the 2020–2026 period. The study was published in the 31 July issue of the Chinese-language Journal of Intelligence, issued by the Shaanxi Information Institute of Science and Technology, and reported by the South China Morning Post.
According to Zhao, China’s political and economic presence in South Asia, its emphasis on emerging technologies, and its naval activities in the Indian Ocean have been monitored more closely by India since a 2020 border clash.
In that clash in the Galwan Valley, 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers were killed, dragging relations between the two countries to one of their lowest points in history.
Zhao noted that India has expanded its intelligence collection tools in recent years, drawing on space-based reconnaissance systems, drone surveillance, and cyber intelligence to establish a multi-agency network targeting China.
According to the article, India has also cooperated with the US and Middle Eastern nations to enhance its capacity to track Chinese naval operations in distant waters and exert informational pressure along Beijing’s maritime energy supply routes.
However, Zhao described India’s heavy reliance on foreign-sourced data as a “structural weakness”, arguing that it leaves New Delhi’s assessments of China vulnerable to the strategic agendas of third parties.
Zhao observed that while relations between Beijing and New Delhi began to improve in late 2024, India’s expanded intelligence activities directed at China have persisted.
The two countries took steps to mend ties after reaching an agreement in 2024 on resuming border patrols. Direct flights resumed after a five-year hiatus, Beijing once again permitted Indian pilgrims to visit the Tibet Autonomous Region, and India resumed issuing visas to Chinese tourists.
Last year, in another sign of easing tensions, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited China for the first time in seven years. In his meeting with Modi in Tianjin, Chinese President Xi Jinping said border issues should not define bilateral relations.
Following the reopening of the Lipulekh Pass in June, which Beijing viewed as a goodwill gesture, the two countries also resumed cross-border trade in August through the Himalayan passes of Nathu La and Shipki La.
In the article, Zhao stated that India is expected to ramp up technical surveillance in border areas, which will compel China to bolster its information security.
Zhao also warned that New Delhi could “systematically disrupt” Beijing’s diplomatic engagements with its South Asian neighbours, particularly its efforts to build regional trust and advance projects under the Belt and Road Initiative.
According to Zhao, the expansion of India’s intelligence operations against China heightens the risk of miscalculation, as routine Chinese activities are increasingly perceived as threats.
“As a result, the likelihood of triggering unilateral countermeasures increases,” Zhao assessed.
Zhao said China must make its strategic messaging more effective and reinforce communication with South Asian states and Indian Ocean littoral nations to counter this pressure.
-
Interview2 weeks agoDaniel Davis warns US strategy fails against Iranian defense grid
-
Diplomacy2 weeks agoErdogan blocked CIA-Mossad plan for armed Kurdish uprising in Iran, report says
-
America2 weeks agoAIPAC super PAC pours millions into key Democratic primary races
-
Europe1 week agoMarine Le Pen plans French constitutional referendum on immigration
-
Middle East2 weeks agoUS considers land blockade on Iran involving Türkiye and neighbours
-
Diplomacy2 weeks agoThe two terrorists: Britain jails tweets while the West crowns al-Qaeda’s man in Damascus
-
America2 weeks agoUS-Brazil rift widens over proposed sanctions and trade tariffs
-
Europe2 weeks agoUkraine uses British drones for long-range strikes deep inside Russia
