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Putin’s visit to Baku: What was discussed and what agreements were signed?

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During Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Baku on 19 August, the two countries signed three agreements, three memoranda of understanding and issued a joint statement. The signing ceremony took place at the Zagulba residence of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on the Caspian Sea coast.

The government-to-government cooperation agreements cover food safety, quarantine and phytosanitary issues, as well as health care, medical education and science.

The parties also signed agreements on labour inspection, climate change and a memorandum of understanding between the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) and the Azerbaijan Export and Investment Promotion Agency.

The joint statement noted the agreement of the two countries to further strengthen interstate relations based on the principles of international law and the importance of the Declaration on Allied Cooperation signed between the two countries in February 2022.

The statement also stressed the important role of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO; Azerbaijan is a dialogue partner of the organisation) and noted that the Russian side supports Baku’s upgrading of its status in the organisation and its ‘interest in cooperation with BRICS’.

Putin and Aliyev also stressed the importance of cooperation in the creation of the North-South transport corridor.

The leaders also agreed to jointly prepare the 80th anniversary of the Victory in the Great Patriotic War in 2025.

Moscow and Baku plan to jointly build river-sea tankers for the transport of oil products. Russia is Azerbaijan’s third largest trading partner after Italy and Turkey. In the first six months of 2024, the volume of trade between the two countries increased by more than 5 per cent to $2.5 billion, according to Azerbaijan’s State Statistics Committee.

Andrey Areshev, an expert on the Caucasus and Central Asia, told the Vedomosti newspaper that the delegations focused on energy, trade and economic cooperation. According to Areshev, Moscow and Baku have long been discussing at the level of heads of state and government the return of Russian energy resources to European markets under the name of Azerbaijani energy resources.

Therefore, it is no coincidence that the parties signed an agreement on investment cooperation and the Russian president mentioned the decision on joint production of tankers for the EU market,” the expert said.

Political analyst Artur Atayev said that as part of deepening cooperation with Moscow, Baku will increase its participation in Eurasian economic projects, especially in the SCO and BRICS.

Azerbaijan’s full membership in these organisations is in the country’s national interest in terms of promoting its economic interests and participation in global infrastructure projects. Therefore, this move towards the global South is a natural step of the Azerbaijani leadership,’ Atayev said.

During the dialogue, the two leaders also discussed regional security and Armenian-Azerbaijani reconciliation. According to Putin, Russia is ready to help achieve peace between Baku and Yerevan. Putin added that after his visit he would contact Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and inform him of the results of the talks.

Areshev noted that the process of resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh and border disputes has its own logic and is currently loosely dependent on Moscow’s participation.

Negotiations are continuing largely in a bilateral format. Yes, the Russian side is offering mediation services, but given that the intergovernmental working commissions have not met for a long time, these proposals are more a sign of courtesy,’ he added.

DIPLOMACY

Argentina and the IMF: Negotiations begin for a new $44bn agreement

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Argentina is pursuing a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to replace its current $44 billion arrangement. The effort signals a significant shift in the country’s financial strategy under President Javier Milei’s administration.

IMF Chief Spokesperson Julie Kozack confirmed on Thursday that the Milei government is prioritizing the establishment of a new programme over completing the final reviews of the existing deal inherited from the previous administration. According to a Bloomberg report, Kozack stated, “The authorities have formally expressed their desire to move to a new programme, and negotiations are now underway.”

The discussions intensified following a visit earlier this month by officials from Economy Minister Luis Caputo’s office and the central bank to Washington, where they engaged with IMF representatives.

The central question in the negotiations revolves around whether the IMF will extend additional financing beyond the $44 billion already allocated to Argentina. Milei had previously suggested an additional $15 billion, although he has not reiterated this figure recently. However, Caputo indicated this week that new funding could be included as part of the prospective programme.

If the parties reach an agreement, it would mark Argentina’s 23rd programme with the IMF since 1958 and its third since 2018. Historically, the IMF’s interventions in Argentina have faced criticism, as many past agreements failed to stabilize the economy. Successive governments often violated programme objectives, raising doubts about the effectiveness of IMF support in the country.

President Milei and his chief negotiator, Caputo, have a history of strained relations with the IMF. Earlier this year, Milei publicly criticized Rodrigo Valdes, one of the IMF’s senior officials, leading to Valdes stepping back from negotiations. Similarly, Caputo clashed with the IMF during his tenure as finance minister in 2018, particularly over exchange rate policies, which eventually prompted his resignation after a short stint as central bank governor.

Despite these tensions, the IMF has commended the Milei administration for implementing measures to cut spending, reduce inflation, and narrow gaps between the country’s various exchange rates.

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Trump threatens tariffs on the EU over energy purchases

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U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has issued a warning to the European Union (EU), stating that the bloc may face tariffs if it does not increase its purchases of U.S. oil and gas on a “large scale.”

“I told the European Union that they must close the enormous gap with the United States by buying our oil and gas on a large scale. Otherwise, TARIFFS!!! in every way!!!” Trump declared in a post on the Truth Social platform on Friday.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen previously suggested that the EU could explore the possibility of importing more liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the U.S. “We still buy a lot of LNG from Russia, and why not replace it with American LNG, which is cheaper for us and lowers our energy prices?” von der Leyen remarked to reporters in November.

An EU official, speaking to the Financial Times (FT), noted the peculiarity of Trump’s threat, given von der Leyen’s earlier openness to the idea of increasing LNG imports from the U.S.

Currently, the United States is Europe’s largest supplier of LNG, though Russia remains the EU’s second-largest source. The possibility of replacing Russian LNG with U.S. imports aligns with the EU’s efforts to diversify its energy sources.

Trump has also floated the possibility of a general tariff of up to 20% on all non-Chinese imports, which could have significant implications for EU-U.S. trade relations.

In November, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde urged European leaders to engage with the U.S. on trade matters, including tariffs, and to consider purchasing more U.S.-manufactured goods. This call for cooperation echoes measures taken during Trump’s first term, when then-European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker pledged to buy more U.S. gas to avert the risk of a trade war.

Global oil prices have shown sensitivity to these developments. On Friday, international oil benchmark Brent crude prices dropped 0.4% to $72.61 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures also fell 0.4%, trading at $69.14 per barrel.

The U.S., currently the world’s largest producer of crude oil and exporter of LNG, has been strengthening its energy trade partnerships. Buyers, including the EU and Vietnam, are reportedly considering increased fuel purchases from the U.S., partly to mitigate the risk of potential tariffs.

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London pushes for continued U.S. support to Ukraine amid leadership transition

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UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer urged Donald Trump on Wednesday to ensure that Western allies “stand together” in supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression.

During a phone call with the U.S. president-elect, their second conversation since Trump’s electoral victory in November, Starmer emphasized the importance of unified support for Ukraine, stating that “allies must stand with Ukraine… and ensure that Ukraine is in the strongest possible position.”

A spokesperson for the British Prime Minister’s Office described the discussion as highlighting a “shared desire to strengthen the close and historic relationship between the United Kingdom and the United States.”

Starmer began the call by congratulating Trump on his recent team appointments. Trump responded by “warmly recounting” his recent meeting with Prince William, Prince of Wales, in Paris earlier this month, according to the Prime Minister’s Office.

As Trump prepares to take office next month, he has expressed intentions to seek a deal to end the war in Ukraine, though he has also publicly criticized certain Western policies, including the approval of missile supplies to Ukraine for use on Russian soil.

In an interview with The Sun on Tuesday, Starmer expressed hope to revive trade talks with the incoming U.S. administration. These negotiations had stalled two years ago under President Joe Biden. The leaders also expressed mutual anticipation of meeting in person “at the first opportunity.” According to the i newspaper, Starmer may visit the U.S. in early February.

Meanwhile, The Telegraph reported that Starmer’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, conducted private meetings with senior members of Trump’s team earlier this month. McSweeney traveled to Florida to meet Susie Wiles, Trump’s chief of staff-designate, who played a pivotal role in managing his re-election campaign. He also held discussions in Washington with Congressman Mike Waltz, Trump’s incoming National Security Adviser.

A senior source in the Prime Minister’s Office described the interactions as “very warm,” adding that “President Trump has a warm approach to the UK. As the year draws to a close, the Starmer team is confident that the UK is well-placed for a strong bilateral relationship with the new president.”

Starmer’s delegation to the U.S., which began on December 2, included Jonathan Powell, former chief of staff to Tony Blair and now Starmer’s national security adviser. Together with McSweeney, Powell engaged in policy discussions on Ukraine, China, and the Middle East, identifying areas of alignment and divergence between the two leaders.

According to The Telegraph, those close to Starmer believe Trump is currently in “listening mode” on Ukraine, carefully evaluating strategies to fulfill his campaign promise of resolving the conflict “on day one” of his presidency.

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