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Revival of al-Qaeda in Afghanistan

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The presence of al-Qaeda in Afghanistan under the rule of the Taliban has become one of the controversial issues, where the world wants the Taliban to cut its ties with them.

In the latest case, the media has reported, quoting two US officials that the revival of al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan seems unlikely. According to the report, in a meeting with journalists, these two US officials presented an optimistic picture of the weakening of terrorist groups to show that despite the country’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, the presence of rebel groups is decreasing.

In the report, US officials said that the threat of al-Qaeda has reached its lowest level in recent decades, but Washington maintains the ability to track terrorist threats in Afghanistan.

At the same time, the United Nations had pointed to the widespread influence of al-Qaeda members in the Taliban structure, emphasizing that this network uses Afghanistan as an “ideological and logistical center”.

However, security analysts consider the weakening of al-Qaeda in Afghanistan to be a “fabricated assessment of terrorism to justify US policies.”

Is al-Qaeda able to revive itself

It has been reported that two US officials said that it seems unlikely that al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan will be able to revive itself. In the report, they presented an optimistic picture of the weakening of terrorist groups in Afghanistan to show that despite the withdrawal of the US troops, the presence of insurgent groups in this country is decreasing.

The two US officials also claimed that after the country’s drone attack in Kabul in August 2022, which led to the death of al-Zawahiri, the leader of al-Qaeda, this group has been left without “leadership aptitude and strategic guidance”.

The report states that since the “tumultuous” withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan, the US has shifted its intelligence activities from anti-terrorism priorities to China and Russia. According to the report, the Biden administration has emphasized that it has maintained its capabilities to track threats from terrorism in Afghanistan.

US, the Islamic State and Middle East

However, some US officials have secretly raised concerns that by moving US intelligence assets from the Middle East and South Asia, the Biden administration may be able to track down the threat posed by IS operating in uncontrolled areas in Syria and elsewhere.

It has been said that the threat of the IS branch of Khorasan (IS-K) in Afghanistan is still standing and this group has continued its attacks in the country. After the return of the Taliban to power in August 2021, the IS-K carried out its first attack on the Kabul International Airport, as a result of which dozens of people, including 13 US soldiers, were killed and many more were injured.

IS-K also attacked the embassies of Russia and Pakistan, a hotel popular with Chinese guests and the Kabul airfield, which targeted the Taliban.

According to the report, one of the US officials, concerned about the threat of IS, said that this threat is different from what al-Qaeda did on September 11, 2001.

IS is under increasing pressure

These US officials have said that their information shows that IS is under increasing pressure from the Taliban and that many of its key leaders have left Afghanistan in recent months. In the report, however, it is stated that IS continues to pose an important threat inside Afghanistan and the regional countries are concerned about the capacity of the group’s overseas operations.

It has also reported that the assessments of the US in downplaying the resurgence of terrorism seem to contradict the report published in June of this year by the United Nations sanctions monitoring team. The UN report states: “al-Qaeda is in the process of reorganization and is creating new educational facilities in Kunar and Nuristan, Afghanistan.”

The activities of the al-Qaeda network in Afghanistan are going on secretly and the members of this network are predominantly present in the judicial, security and other government departments under the Taliban management.

Taliban and the al-Qaeda’s friendship

The report also emphasized that al-Qaeda uses Afghanistan as an “ideological and logistical center” to mobilize new fighters and recruit them in line with its extremist policies.

This home is believed to be the residence of al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri. He was killed by a US drone attack in downtown Kabul city on August 2, 2022.

Recently, Ruslan Sisembayev, deputy of the National Security Committee of Kazakhstan, has considered the presence of al-Qaeda in Afghanistan as a potential threat to the region. He expressed this at the 40th meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Council. He furthered that the number of fighters of this network in Afghanistan has reached to 500. Meanwhile, the United Nations has announced that there are 400 to 600 al-Qaeda fighters in Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, al-Qaeda leaders have time and again showed that they will not leave Afghanistan under any circumstances. This group has always emphasized on maintaining its relations with the Taliban.

Also, not long ago Abdul Kabir, the political deputy of the Taliban prime minister, said that Mullah Omar, the founder of the Taliban group, did not want Osama bin-Laden, the leader of the al-Qaeda network, to be handed over to the US. He said that “he did not leave behind the shame of handing over a Muslim to the infidels.”

US can’t justify its chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan

After the US officials’ statements regarding the weakening of al-Qaeda in Afghanistan, a number of security analysts believe that the US officials made these statements to justify their disastrous withdrawal from the country. According to them, on the eve of the presidential election, the Biden administration is seeking to reduce the pressure and manage the minds of the voters of this country by showing the reduction of al-Qaeda activities.

Rahmatullah Nabil, former head of National Directorate of Security (NDS) had al-Qaeda active in Afghanistan and this is a great threat to the safety of the region.

Samid Samadi, a political pundit said that beside al-Qaeda, the IS-K is very dangerous for the world and blamed western countries for supporting the group.

Samadi emphasized that the intelligence services of the countries of the region and the world are active and powerful in Afghanistan. He accused the US and Pakistan of supporting IS. Samadi says that Islamabad uses IS instrumentally and commercially, and if the war in Ukraine ends in Moscow’s favor, the “IS project” in Afghanistan will be further strengthened.

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Syria will not follow Afghanistan’s Taliban model of governance

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In an astonishing statement, Ahmed Shará, also known as Abu Mohamad Jolani, the leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) said that he will allow the girls to go to schools and will not turn Syria like Afghanistan under the rule of the Taliban.

Jolani, the de facto ruler of Syria, said that he will distance himself from the Taliban’s strict policies on women’s rights, and said that Syria will not follow the Taliban’s mode of governance.  

Jolani, who brought down the government of Bashar al-Assad and also widely welcomed by the Taliban, said that he believes in the education of women and girls and will not make Syria like Afghanistan.

“Syria is a diverse society with various ideas, unlike Afghanistan, which is more tribal. The Afghan model cannot be applied here,” Jolani told a BBC reporter.

Jolani says that Syria is a diverse society with various ideas, unlike Afghanistan, which is more tribal.

Jolani’s comment came when the Taliban congratulated the HTS-led victory by Jolani over Assad’s regime after years of fighting. The Afghan Foreign Ministry celebrated Jolani’s victory through a statement and hoped Jolani can bring peace and stability in the country.

“It is hoped that the power transition process is advanced in a manner that lays the foundation of a sovereign and serve-oriented Islamic government in the line with the aspiration of the Syrian people; that unifies the entire population without discrimination and retribution through adoption of a general assembly; and a positive foreign policy with world countries the safeguard Syria from a threat of negative rivalries of foreign actors and creates conditions for the return of millions of refugees,” the statement by Taliban Foreign Ministry.

However, Jolan’s position on the rights of women and girls is in great contrast with the current view of the Taliban leadership. Women and girls have been banned from education and work since the return of the Taliban in August 2021, following the collapse of the Republic System and withdrawal of the US troops from Afghanistan. Girls and women are even banned from medical institutions and visiting public spaces.

Jolani says he has a plan to create a government based institution and a council chosen by the people. 

The situation got worse when the Taliban’s Ministry for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice called women’s voices “immodest” compounding their exclusion from public life. This year, it has been marked as three years since girls were banned from pursuing education over sixth grade. Besides that, on December 20, 2022, the Taliban’s Ministry of Higher Education announced that women would be barred from attending public and private universities.    

In an interview with CNN, Jolani said that he has a plan to create a government based on institutions and a “council chosen by the people.”

“When we talk about objectives, the goal of the revolution remains the overthrow of this regime. It is our right to use all available means to achieve that goal,” said Jolani.

“The seeds of the regime’s defeat have always been within it… the Iranians attempted to revive the regime, buying it time, and later the Russians also tried to prop it up. But the truth remains: this regime is dead.”

Moreover, he also said the Syrian people are the “rightful owners” of the country after the ouster of Assad, and declared a “new history” has been written for the entire Middle East.

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Yoon summoned again for questioning on treason charges

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A joint law enforcement team investigating South Korea’s martial law case announced on Friday that it has issued a second summons to ousted President Yoon Suk Yeol, requesting his presence for questioning next week. The inquiry concerns his alleged involvement in the failed implementation of martial law.

The team has scheduled the questioning for 10:00 a.m. next Wednesday at the Corruption Investigation Office for Senior Officials (CIO) headquarters in Gwacheon, located just south of Seoul. This marks the second summons after Yoon refused to cooperate with the initial notice earlier this week.

The decision to hold the questioning on a public holiday appears to be a strategic move by the CIO, likely aimed at addressing security concerns. The office confirmed that the summonses were delivered via express mail and electronically to both Yoon’s residence and the presidential office in Yongsan. Notably, after Yoon’s team refused to accept the first subpoena, the CIO opted against delivering the documents in person for this round.

The investigation focuses on Yoon’s role in the December 3 martial law declaration, which he revoked following a vote in the National Assembly. If Yoon continues to disregard the summons without valid justification, the CIO may seek a court order to detain him for up to 48 hours.

Yoon faces allegations of sedition and abuse of office, charges that have gained traction since his dismissal by parliament last Saturday. His suspension from office remains in effect pending a decision by the Constitutional Court, which will determine whether he is permanently removed or reinstated.

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Xi Jinping champions economic diversification during Macau visit

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During a three-day visit to Macau commemorating the 25th anniversary of its return to Chinese sovereignty from Portugal, President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of economic diversification and maintaining the “one country, two systems” framework.

Speaking at the swearing-in ceremony for Macau’s new Chief Executive Officer, Sam Hou-fai, Xi urged the administration to make economic diversification the city’s primary focus. Sam, the fourth leader since the 1999 handover and the first mainland-born Chinese official to hold the position, is expected to align closely with Beijing’s objectives to reduce Macau’s reliance on gambling. The gambling industry, which accounts for approximately 80% of Macau’s tax revenue, has been the cornerstone of its rapid economic growth in recent years.

“Macau should prioritize proper economic diversification,” Xi stated, calling for enhanced policy support and investment in emerging sectors. He also reiterated the significance of the “one country, two systems” principle, stressing its role in ensuring the city’s “prosperity and stability” for the long term.

Xi’s visit included stops at the Macau University of Science and Technology, where he explored laboratories focusing on traditional Chinese medicine and planetary science. He also attended a cultural performance at the Macau Dome and met with local stakeholders, according to Chinese state media. His trip marked a shift in tone, with Anthony Lawrence, founder of Intelligence Macau, noting that it was the first time Xi publicly praised Macau for its progress rather than delivering critiques or instructions.

Since the liberalization of Macau’s gaming monopoly in 2002, the city has attracted significant foreign investment, including from prominent US casino operators such as Las Vegas Sands, MGM, and Wynn Resorts. However, the economy struggled during the COVID-19 pandemic due to travel restrictions, and recovery has only recently begun.

On Friday, Macau’s casinos were bustling with visitors, while non-gaming initiatives like a stamp exhibition co-organized by MGM China and Beijing’s Palace Museum showcased the city’s efforts to diversify its offerings.

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