Diplomacy
Rwanda-Congo conflict: The EU’s and Germany’s involvement
Tensions between the two neighboring African countries, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda, have escalated in recent months.
The DRC accuses the Rwandan government of supporting militias in the neighboring Kivu provinces to the east of the DRC, which for decades have been seizing raw materials on a large scale and smuggling them to Rwanda.
In recent months and weeks, armed forces of the so-called ‘M23’ group, with the direct support of soldiers of the Rwandan armed forces, have seized large parts of the Kivu provinces, causing countless residents to flee the region.
Germany’s and the EU’s decades-long support for Rwanda has led to growing protests over the country’s role in the war in eastern DRC.
The Federal Republic of Germany has long cooperated closely with Rwanda, a former colony of the German Empire and a country that is also regarded in Berlin as an outsource for asylum procedures in remote parts of the world.
Last year, the EU also signed an agreement with Kigali for the supply of important raw materials.
German companies are very interested in Rwanda
Germany, other Western countries, and the EU have been cooperating closely for years with Rwanda, which was a colony of the German Empire from 1884 to 1916.
Berlin pays large sums to Kigali from its development budget; most recently in October 2022, it committed a sum of 93.6 million euros for a period of three years, two-thirds of which it called financial cooperation to promote investments.
Rwanda is one of the countries included by Germany in the Compact with Africa project, which aims to improve the framework conditions for foreign investment in participating African countries.
A German Business Desk has also been set up in Kigali to promote investments. In 2019, the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development opened a digital center there, which, according to official statements, is intended to ‘act as a bridge’ between companies and research institutions in Germany and Rwanda.
Since 2018, Volkswagen has had a factory in the capital, Kigali, and the German vaccine manufacturer BioNTech has also been represented there since 2023.
Are M23 militias looting DRC’s minerals and smuggling them out of Rwanda?
Rwanda is also of great importance as a supplier of raw materials. For decades, observers have been pointing out in German Foreign Policy that Rwanda has been exporting much larger quantities than it produces on its own territory.
Much of this export surplus allegedly comes from the neighboring regions of the DRC, especially the provinces of North and South Kivu on its eastern border, which are extremely rich in raw materials.
Since the outbreak of the Great War in eastern DRC in 1996, Kigali has been supporting militias, especially in North Kivu, which illegally transport a significant part of the mineral resources from there across the border into Rwanda.
This means that Kinshasa is losing a lot of money: In 2023, DRC’s Minister of Finance Nicolas Kazadi estimated that this amounted to ‘a billion dollars a year.
The DRC argues that the militias, particularly those supported by Rwanda, are enabling the war in eastern DRC to continue, with Kigali’s sponsorship.
Human rights organizations draw attention to coltan among the smuggled raw materials. The mineral, used in the manufacture of mobile phones, is mined in North Kivu, often under the worst working conditions, smuggled to Rwanda, and exported from there.
M23 benefits from mineral exploitation and trade. For example, the rebels who seized the Rubaya mine (one of the world’s largest coltan deposits) last year earn about $800,000 a month in taxes, according to UN estimates.
The DRC accused Apple of profiting from looting
Indeed, last year the DRC accused Apple of using minerals illegally exported from the war-torn east of the country, challenging claims that the iPhone maker carefully verifies the origins of materials in its devices.
In a letter to Apple CEO Tim Cook dated April 22, Congolese government lawyers posed a series of questions.
In the letter, lawyers for the DRC, based in France and the US, say Apple’s iPhones, Mac computers, and other accessories are ‘stained with the blood of the Congolese people.’
The EU is allegedly covering up Rwanda’s crimes in the DRC
For years, campaigns against the supply of Eastern DRC’s ‘blood minerals’ through Rwanda have regularly failed, allegedly because the Western states supplying the raw materials are in close cooperation with Kigali and thus effectively cover up smuggling and attacks by Rwandan-backed militias in Eastern DRC.
In February last year, the EU even signed a memorandum of understanding with the Rwandan government for close cooperation in the extraction and processing of natural resources.
The focus was on so-called critical raw materials, which are indispensable for energy transition technologies. The European Commission clearly emphasizes that Rwanda exports, among other things, large quantities of tantalum, especially from coltan.
Human rights organizations warn that there is a high risk of ‘blood minerals’ entering the EU on the basis of the Memorandum of Understanding. Brussels says it has put in place control mechanisms to ensure that this is not the case, but experts point out that the daily smuggling from eastern DRC to Rwanda has long been circumvented by all sorts of tricks, so they are essentially ineffective.
Rwandan support for M23 in UN report
In 2022, United Nations experts stated that they had evidence that the M23 organization not only possessed unusually modern weapons but was also supported by troops from the Rwandan armed forces directly on the territory of the DRC.
With their help, the M23 took control of growing areas, including new raw material deposits. Operations continued even after the signing of a formal ceasefire between DRC and Rwanda in July 2024.
At the beginning of this year, UN experts assumed that between 3,000 and 4,000 soldiers from the official Rwandan armed forces were now stationed in North Kivu, and that M23 militias were participating in attacks there.
At the end of January, they succeeded in jointly capturing Goma, the provincial capital of North Kivu. After a brief ceasefire, the militias resumed their attacks on Tuesday, and countless people have been killed since then.
More than 2,000 people were allegedly burned to death in Goma following the M23 invasion last week.
According to the UN, the number of refugees in the Kivu provinces, many of them living in squalid conditions, is approaching five million.
DRC proposes ‘green corridor’ to the EU
Rwanda’s attack and occupation of large parts of Kivu province comes at a time when the DRC has offered the EU cooperation on raw material reserves in eastern DRC.
Kambale Musavuli of the Congo-Kinshasa Research Centre points this out. At this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos, the President of the DRC, Félix Tshisekedi, presented the new Green Corridor initiative, which envisages numerous development measures along a large strip of land along the Congo River, from renewable energy production to the promotion of agriculture and the creation of transport infrastructure.
In the long term, the Green Corridor is intended to connect the eastern Congolese provinces of Kivu to the capital Kinshasa, thus rivaling the traditional transport and smuggling route from the Kivu provinces to Kenya via Rwanda and Uganda, Kambale Musavuli reports.
The EU Commission has recently confirmed that it wants to support the creation of the Green Corridor and the associated construction of transport infrastructure.
After all, up to one million tonnes of agricultural products can be transported from the Kivu provinces to Kinshasa via the Green Corridor every year, and this also applies to raw materials.
Western countries in DRC face growing resentment
Protests are mounting against the war in Kivu province, the occupation of large parts of the region by M23 militias and Rwandan troops, and the authorization of these actions by Western states.
At the end of January, angry demonstrators in the capital Kinshasa attacked the embassies of Rwanda, the US, France, and Belgium, among others. Since then, protests have also been organized in other cities in the DRC.
Activists are calling for a demonstration in Berlin this Saturday. The protest is also aimed at Germany’s de facto endorsement of the Rwandan war in eastern DRC.
Diplomacy
FIFA abandons $4.2 billion commercial stake sale following widespread revolt
FIFA and Gianni Infantino have backed down from plans to sell a stake in the organization’s commercial and event operations following widespread backlash.
In a statement issued late Friday night, the embattled FIFA president said:
“After carefully listening to all views, it has become clear that this project, regardless of the level of support, causes divisions that are now contrary to the interests of the objective originally established. Our goal has always been, and will always be, to unite and improve. As a result, this proposal will not be implemented.”
Infantino’s proposal met with fierce resistance from UEFA, CONCACAF, and the Asian Football Confederation (AFC).
UEFA indicated that all 55 of its members would boycott FIFA competitions, including the World Cup, if the plans remained on the table.
In its statement, FIFA noted that “nobody is selling football,” and while asserting that it “acknowledges and respects the feedback and concerns expressed publicly,” emphasized that it would continue to implement suggestions.
It added that it “reaffirms its commitment to an open and democratic process of consultation.”
Shortly after FIFA issued its statement, the AFC released its own declaration of solidarity with UEFA and the Confederation of North, Central America and Caribbean Association Football (CONCACAF).
Infantino subsequently suffered two major internal blows.
First, his adviser Carlos Cordeiro resigned from his position, sharply criticizing the plan in a statement as “a bad deal for FIFA member associations, a bad deal for football, and a bad deal for the long-term future of the game.”
Then, FIFA Chief Operating Officer Kevin Lamour told the Associated Press that staff felt “deceived” by Infantino and that after raising the issue, he would “sleep better, even at the cost of losing his job.”
Lamour said:
“This is the project of a single person. Leaving aside that this project should not proceed… it is now time for the political leaders of world football to ask themselves the right questions and make the right decisions.”
These developments left Infantino cornered, and by Friday afternoon, numerous figures within the organization—speaking to The Athletic on condition of anonymity to protect their jobs—believed it was no longer a question of “if” the cord would be cut, but “when.”
Joshua Kushner’s venture capital firm Thrive had not withdrawn from the deal as of Friday night, but that became moot when FIFA management ultimately decided to kill the project via a public statement.
Joshua Kushner is the brother of Jared Kushner, the son-in-law of Donald Trump.
On Tuesday, world football’s governing body had announced its intention to establish FIFA Forward Enterprises (FFE), a new private entity to manage its flagship events, including the World Cup and the Club World Cup, with plans to sell a 21% minority stake in FFE to external investors.
The sale was targeted to generate $4.2 billion (£3.2 billion) in revenue. FIFA stated that this amount could be immediately distributed to its 211 member associations under a new funding stream named the “FIFA Fast-Forward Program” (FFFP).
Under the plan, FIFA’s total development funding would have exceeded $10 billion over the next four years.
Despite mounting criticism in recent days, FIFA confirmed that if member associations opposed the FFE plan but the proposal was accepted, the dissenting federations would each receive $20 million (£14.9 million) for the 2027–30 cycle, regardless of whether shares in FFE were sold to private investors (to be followed by $22 million for 2031–34 and $24 million for 2035–38).
However, had a given member association accepted the FFE proposal, it would have received $40 million for the 2027–30 period, with subsequent payouts remaining the same.
The three confederations that explicitly took a stand against FIFA’s plan represent 137 of the 211 FIFA member associations.
FIFA had stated that for the proposal to move forward, it required the approval of a majority of the 211 member associations as well as the 37-member FIFA Council, which consists of Infantino and eight FIFA vice presidents.
Strategic reactions and leadership crisis
South American football confederation CONMEBOL did not reject the plans in a statement on Friday, but noted that financial and commercial decisions “must always serve the interests of football and never take precedence over the essence of the game.”
According to a report by The Athletic, Infantino’s future leadership of FIFA was called into question during UEFA and CONCACAF meetings held on Thursday.
Infantino assumed the FIFA presidency in February 2016, succeeding Sepp Blatter, and was expected to run unopposed in the next election scheduled for March 2027.
There is also talk among European officials of putting forward Nasser Al-Khelaifi, the Qatari CEO of beIN Media, to run against Infantino.
Lise Klaveness, President of the Norwegian Football Federation, told VG: “My clear impression right now is that he has suffered a major loss of trust. We did not vote for him last time and were skeptical about this. There are many good aspects to FIFA, but if you take a lax approach to governance principles and rules, you lose trust quickly.”
Diplomacy
Defense Priorities director warns US air strategy in Middle East faces tactical limits
The collapse of a tentative memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran, coupled with the diminishing strategic returns of American air power, has left the United States locked in an unsustainable, low-intensity conflict with Iran, according to Benjamin Friedman, Policy Director at the Washington-based think tank Defense Priorities.
Speaking in an interview on the YouTube channel Harici with host Sarp Sinan Hacır, Friedman attributed the failure of the short-lived US-Iran memorandum primarily to the Trump administration’s diplomatic missteps, vague draft language, and unrealistic expectations regarding a comprehensive settlement.
“Both sides really deserve some blame, but the Trump administration deserves the bulk of the blame for drafting an agreement that was so vague on key terms,” Friedman said, citing ambiguities surrounding the timeline for unfreezing Iranian assets and the scope of American commitments to restrain Israeli military operations in Lebanon.
Friedman emphasized that deep-seated mistrust in Tehran, exacerbated by repeated instances where diplomatic engagement was followed by Israeli or American military strikes, led Iranian negotiators to adopt an unyielding posture. At the same time, he noted that Iran likely miscalculated by using disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz to aggressively force leverage.
“The Trump administration remained intent on this sort of grand bargain that would restrain Iran seeking weapons development… and I think they continue to misread the Iranian willingness to sign that kind of deal,” Friedman noted, adding that Tehran viewed its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz as essential despite the risk of provoking further strikes.
Expressing deep skepticism over the prospects for a lasting diplomatic breakthrough, Friedman criticized the administration’s reliance on informal envoys such as Steve Bannon and Jared Kushner over professional diplomatic channels, predicting that the baseline outcome will remain an unpredictable, episodic conflict.
“What’s more likely is a kind of on-off-again kind of war—sort of what we’re in now, where we have occasional strikes, with the United States perhaps by accident adopting the Israeli model of ‘mowing the lawn’ periodically,” Friedman said.
Addressing the efficacy of US air power, Friedman argued that military operations against Iranian targets have reached a point of diminishing returns. While early strikes successfully eliminated critical high-value assets—such as over-the-horizon radar systems that targeted anti-ship missiles—Iran’s ballistic missile and long-range drone capabilities remain largely intact and operational.
He pointed to a recent strike on a base hosting US personnel in Jordan, launched from western Iran over a distance exceeding 1,000 kilometers, as evidence of Tehran’s sustained strike precision and the tactical limits of American interdiction efforts.
“The war is a failure for air power even in a tactical sense,” Friedman stated. “Initially, we looked at it and said we had a lot of success in destroying targets, but as more information came out, it turned out they had maybe more than half of their missiles and launchers survive the initial phase of the war.”
Friedman observed that the global proliferation of low-cost, high-precision guidance technology has permanently altered the strategic landscape, neutralizing the traditional invulnerability of forward-deployed US installations. “The precise effects of air power that used to be almost a monopoly of the United States… is actually making our posture in the region less sustainable,” he said, warning that similar vulnerabilities would be vastly amplified in any potential high-intensity conflict with China.
As an alternative to open-ended military engagement, Friedman suggested that Washington consider a complete military withdrawal from the region, even if it entails accepting Iranian transit fees on commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. “The cost of preventing that through perpetual outbursts of warfare is much higher than just accepting it,” he noted.
Turning to regional dynamics, Friedman addressed Israel’s current absence from active strike operations against Iran, characterizing it as a calculated move to preserve its own air defense interceptors while relying on Washington to bear the operational and political burdens of containment.
On European security and the broader alliance structure, Friedman offered a critical assessment of the NATO summit in Ankara and the administration’s “NATO 3.0” concept. He described the white paper led by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth as an effort to coerce European states into escalating defense expenditures and purchasing American hardware under the threat of reduced security guarantees, rather than executing a structured, strategic US posture adjustment.
“This is not a real US withdrawal; it’s a kind of pressure to up your loyalty in a particular way,” Friedman said, noting that major European powers such as Germany, France, and the UK lack a compelling existential incentive to construct independent, large-scale conventional war-fighting capabilities.
Regarding bilateral relations with Ankara, Friedman noted that US-Turkish tensions have eased considerably following the shift in American posture in Syria and progress toward resolving long-standing friction points, including the F-35 program and S-400 procurement. He added that while Israeli leadership under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has expressed frustration over Washington’s constructive engagement with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the White House has maintained its strategic course despite pressure from domestic pro-Israel lobbying groups.
Addressing internal Republican Party dynamics, Friedman highlighted the evolving public stance of Vice President J.D. Vance, whose cautious criticism of Israeli influence and emphasis on divergent national interests reflects broader ideological shifts within the conservative base.
“Vance is more representative of the shift in the Republican Party,” Friedman said. “He’s criticizing them in a limited way and saying, ‘Our interests are different.’ From the perspective of those of us who would like the United States to have a more distant relationship from Israel, it’s progress.”
Looking ahead to the upcoming US midterm elections, Friedman anticipated that a loss of congressional control by the Republican Party would severely curtail the administration’s domestic executive overreach, though its structural impact on foreign policy execution and Middle Eastern operations would remain comparatively limited.
Diplomacy
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham pledges full support to Ukraine in meeting with Zelenskyy
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham has met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Portsmouth, England.
Zelenskyy is the first world leader Burnham has met in person since taking office, with the prime minister committing to building a “firm partnership” between the United Kingdom and Ukraine.
Demonstrating their support, the two leaders toured a military base in Portsmouth where 200 Ukrainian troops are currently undergoing naval training exercises.
Burnham described his meeting with the Ukrainian president as “warm” and said he plans to visit Ukraine soon.
“We will build this together and address the various issues President Zelenskyy is facing, many of which we discussed today,” Burnham said.
The meeting follows an announcement by London that it will share intellectual property rights to assist Kyiv’s war effort.
The new prime minister announced that the UK will share the “Stone Cloak” electronic warfare system—which is fitted to drones to prevent detection—and will assist Ukraine in mass-producing the technology.
Burnham has focused primarily on domestic matters since replacing Keir Starmer, who faced criticism from elements within his own party for spending too much time abroad and focusing heavily on foreign affairs.
However, Burnham sought to signal continuity in Britain’s policy toward Ukraine. In one of his first phone calls after becoming prime minister last week, Burnham invited Zelenskyy to visit the UK “as soon as possible.”
Starmer spent his final full day as prime minister in Kyiv, where he announced £255 million in funding for Ukraine.
Speaking to Sky on Monday, Zelenskyy said his telephone conversation with Burnham had been “very good.”
The Ukrainian leader noted that Starmer had previously assured him that “the new government would maintain the policy of supporting Ukraine during the war.”
The new prime minister told the Ukrainian leader it was “no coincidence” that he was his first international visitor since moving into Downing Street.
“The purpose of this is to send a very clear message. We stand 100% with Ukraine, I personally stand 100% with you, and I will fully deliver on every commitment this country has made to Ukraine,” Burnham said.
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