Asia
Sanae Takaichi secures historic supermajority in Japan’s landmark winter election
Sanae Takaichi’s governing coalition secured a crushing victory in Sunday’s lower house elections, granting the Prime Minister a commanding “supermajority” with 352 seats. The results signal a definitive shift in Japan’s regional posture, as the leader looks to maintain a hawkish stance toward China in alignment with US policy, bolster national defense, and move away from the country’s traditional pacifist framework.
Takaichi, Japan’s first female leader who cites the United Kingdom’s “Iron Lady” Margaret Thatcher as her primary inspiration, led the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to 316 seats in the 465-member House of Representatives, according to final counts released by public broadcaster NHK early Monday.
While the LDP easily cleared the 233-seat threshold required for a simple majority on its own, its coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, secured an additional 36 seats.
With a combined 352 seats, Takaichi now holds a supermajority in the lower house. This status effectively streamlines her legislative agenda, allowing the lower house to override the upper chamber where necessary, despite lacking a majority there.
The results mark the party’s most significant electoral triumph since its founding in 1955, surpassing the previous record of 300 seats set in 1986 under the late Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone.
“This election centered on major policy shifts—particularly a significant transformation in economic and fiscal policy, alongside the strengthening of our security posture,” Takaichi said in a televised interview as the results were finalized. “These are policies that have faced serious opposition. If we have received the support of the people, we must dedicate our full strength to these issues.”
Conversely, the new opposition alliance—comprised of the LDP’s former, more dovish coalition partner Komeito and the liberal-leaning Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan—is expected to see its pre-election strength of 167 seats slashed by half.
First to congratulate: The US, India and Taiwan
US President Donald Trump congratulated Takaichi’s coalition on Sunday.
“Congratulations to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and her Coalition on a BIG VICTORY,” Trump posted on his Truth Social platform. “It was an honor to support you and your coalition. I wish you great success as you implement your conservative agenda based on the principle of peace through strength.”
Trump had voiced his explicit support for Takaichi on Friday, describing her as a “highly respected and very popular leader.” He added that Takaichi’s “brave and smart decision” to call the election had clearly paid off.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi also extended his congratulations. “Congratulations Sanae Takaichi on your historic victory in the House of Representatives elections!” Modi posted on social media Sunday, adding, “I am confident that under your capable leadership, we will further advance the India-Japan friendship.”
Taiwanese leader William Lai Ching-te also shared a message on social media offering his “heartfelt congratulations.”
The 64-year-old Takaichi called the rare winter snap election following her ascent to the LDP leadership late last year, seeking to capitalize on rising personal approval ratings.
While voters were drawn to her outspoken and industrious image, her promises of tax cuts have caused some unease in financial markets. Simultaneously, her ultra-nationalist tendencies and emphasis on security have strained relations with an increasingly assertive China.
Weeks after taking office, Takaichi sparked the most significant dispute with Beijing in a decade by publicly discussing how Tokyo might respond to a potential Chinese intervention in Taiwan.
In November, her suggestion that Japan could involve itself in the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan escalated tensions further. Beijing responded by imposing restrictions on the export of rare earth elements to Japan and issuing travel warnings for the country.
Beijing has continued to emphasize its plans for reunification with Taiwan—which the United Nations recognizes as part of China—into 2026. While many nations, including the US, do not recognize Taiwan as an independent state, Washington continues to provide arms to Taiwan and support separatist trends against China. Takaichi’s alignment with US interests in this dispute has drawn the ire of Beijing.
A strong electoral mandate is expected to accelerate Takaichi’s plans to strengthen Japan’s defenses—a move Beijing characterizes as an attempt to revive the country’s militaristic past.
“Beijing will not welcome Takaichi’s victory,” said David Boling, a director at the Asia Group, which advises firms on geopolitical risk. “China is now faced with the reality that she is firmly established and that their efforts to isolate her have failed.”
Takaichi captured young voters
Takaichi managed to partially reverse the party’s fortunes by building a massive social media following and forging a connection with younger voters.
“Takaichi’s personal appeal will allow LDP candidates, who might otherwise struggle to get elected, to win seats through her endorsement,” Levi McLaughlin, a professor at North Carolina State University, told This Week in Asia.
The Prime Minister has also triggered an unexpected youth-driven trend known as sanakatsu—roughly translated as “Sanae craze”—which has led to high demand for merchandise she uses in parliament, such as her handbag and pink pens.
“She beats the drum. She has an interest in Korean products, music, and the entertainment sector. Unlike the rest of her party, she is active on social media,” said Mark Cogan, an associate professor at Kansai Gaidai University.
“She is markedly different from her rather stagnant peers,” Cogan noted, adding that this distinctiveness helped her weather various political storms, including diplomatic tensions with Beijing.
However, Cogan questioned the longevity of this popularity: “The real question is how long ‘Sanae craze’ will last. Is this a case of young people being swept up by something new or different while ignoring policy positions that do not always align with their own interests?”
The election was only the third general election in the post-war era to be held in February, as polls are typically conducted during more temperate months.
What challenges await Takaichi?
Following the dissolution of the lower house on January 19, a special session must be convened to officially elect the prime minister. This session is expected to take place on February 18. Takaichi’s immediate priority will be passing the annual budget for the fiscal year beginning in April.
While budget deliberations usually take about two months, the process was disrupted by the snap election. Takaichi is expected to prepare a provisional budget to ensure Japan’s financial operations continue through the first weeks of the fiscal year.
Another priority will be materializing her proactive fiscal policy. One of her core campaign messages was to increase domestic investment by targeting sectors with high growth potential. She also spoke of building a nation “resilient to currency fluctuations.” A framework for basic economic and fiscal policy, expected around June, is likely to outline measures to attract private investment back to Japan.
On the diplomatic front, Takaichi’s management of relations with both the US and China will be decisive and challenging.
She is expected to focus on reaffirming the robust Japan-US partnership. Takaichi will travel to the US on March 19 to meet with Trump at the White House, aiming to further solidify their strong relationship.
How Takaichi will navigate Japan-China relations remains uncertain. Trump is scheduled to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping during a visit to China in April, and the US President is thought to want to move relations with China to a more “stable” level.
Despite the strong mandate from voters, Tobias Harris of Japan Foresight notes that significant hurdles remain.
“The markets are watching her every move closely,” Harris said. “The truth is, it’s impossible to predict what will happen when the meeting between Trump and Xi takes place. If the US and China move closer while Japan and China do not move in the same direction, it leaves Takaichi in a delicate and uncomfortable position.”
“The issue of defense spending will be extremely complex,” Harris continued. “There is a consensus on spending more, but no consensus on how to finance it. This will pose a serious challenge, as will managing a larger LDP. She will have a strong base, but that doesn’t make these problems disappear; it only gives her more room to maneuver while addressing them.”
Asia
China launches patrols east of Taiwan after Japan and Philippines open maritime boundary talks
Beijing said it had conducted law enforcement patrols in waters east of Taiwan in response to a decision by Japan and the Philippines to launch talks on maritime boundary delimitation.
According to a statement from the China Coast Guard, a flotilla led by the vessel Daishan carried out law enforcement patrols “in accordance with the law” on Monday.
China Coast Guard spokesperson Jiang Lue said the operation was “a necessary action” in response to Japan and the Philippines “unilaterally announcing the start of negotiations on maritime delimitation in waters east of China’s Taiwan Island.”
“Such an announcement seriously infringes upon China’s territorial sovereignty and its maritime rights and interests,” Jiang said.
“We urge Japan and the Philippines to immediately cease all illegal actions that violate China’s sovereignty and rights,” he added.
Jiang also said the coast guard would continue strengthening its control and management of the relevant waters and that China would take concrete measures to “resolutely safeguard territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests.”
The United States and most of its allies, including Japan and the Philippines, do not recognize Taiwan as an independent state and acknowledge it as part of China. The United Nations has also adopted resolutions reflecting this position. However, Washington continues to provide arms to Taiwan as part of its broader efforts to counter China and encourages its allies to do the same.
Following a summit in Tokyo between Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the two countries said in a joint statement issued on Thursday that they had agreed to begin “formal negotiations” to delimit their exclusive economic zones (EEZs) and continental shelves.
Beijing condemned the planned talks as “completely illegal and invalid” and swiftly lodged formal diplomatic protests with both Tokyo and Manila.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on Friday: “The so-called delimitation negotiations are entirely illegal, invalid and void. They will have no impact whatsoever on China’s claims or on China’s exercise of its legitimate rights in the area east of Taiwan Island.”
The latest escalation comes at a time when relations between Beijing and both Tokyo and Manila are already strained. Japan and the Philippines are treaty allies of the United States, while China remains engaged in separate territorial disputes with Japan in the East China Sea and with the Philippines in the South China Sea.
As US attention and resources have increasingly shifted toward the war involving Iran, and as the White House has made the Western Hemisphere a strategic priority, Japan and the Philippines have stepped up diplomatic engagement in the region commonly referred to as the Indo-Pacific.
That effort has included building closer security and defence ties with other countries, prompting Beijing to accuse them of encouraging bloc confrontation in the region.
Japan and the Philippines do not share a maritime boundary. However, their seabed claims could overlap because both countries seek to extend their legal continental shelves beyond 200 nautical miles, equivalent to 370 kilometres or 230 miles.
The overlapping area lies east of Taiwan, southwest of Japan’s Ryukyu Islands and north of the Philippines’ Batanes Islands.
Yang Xiao, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China’s highest-ranking state-affiliated think tank, said Taiwan’s EEZ and continental shelf are part of the area under discussion.
“These are China’s rights and are not something that the two sides can negotiate among themselves,” Yang said.
In an interview published on Sunday by Yuyuan Tantian, a social media account affiliated with state broadcaster CCTV, before the China Coast Guard announced the patrols, Yang said Beijing would take “historic and unprecedented” countermeasures against Tokyo and Manila.
“Since they are negotiating in a three-party overlapping zone, we can also take further steps to advance our jurisdiction in the waters east of Taiwan,” Yang said.
“If the other side insists on reckless and destructive actions, we will inevitably introduce new countermeasures.”
Yang described the waters east of Taiwan as a vital maritime area for the island’s economic activities.
“If these waters are divided between Japan and the Philippines, that would clearly harm the interests of the people living on Taiwan Island,” he added.
Asia
SoftBank overtakes Toyota to become Japan’s most valuable company
As artificial intelligence reshapes industrial structures in Japan and South Korea, stock market rankings are being redrawn. SoftBank Group has overtaken Toyota Motor to become Japan’s most valuable listed company.
SoftBank shares have surged as the global artificial intelligence rally gathers momentum, lifting the technology conglomerate’s market capitalisation above that of Toyota for the first time in more than two decades.
The shift reflects a broader reordering of Japan’s equity market. Automakers, alongside banks, steelmakers, energy companies and other traditional heavy industries, are losing ground to chipmakers and companies linked to artificial intelligence.
SoftBank shares jumped 14% on Monday, reaching a new record high. The company’s market value climbed to 48 trillion yen, or $301 billion, making it the most valuable company listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
Toyota had long held the top position, with a market capitalisation of approximately 45 trillion yen. The last time SoftBank surpassed Toyota was in March 2000, at the peak of the dot-com bubble.
SoftBank’s rapid rise has been driven by strong earnings performance and its substantial investment in ChatGPT developer OpenAI.
The Japanese company reported net profit of 1.82 trillion yen, or $11.4 billion, for the first three months of 2026, 3.5 times higher than in the same period a year earlier. The group is also increasing its investment in OpenAI, completing a $10 billion investment in April and committing to invest an additional $20 billion later this year. Total investment is expected to reach roughly $65 billion.
According to The Wall Street Journal, OpenAI plans to file for an initial public offering and aims to list in the United States as early as September. Some media reports suggest the company could seek to raise $60 billion through the offering, potentially valuing it at more than $1 trillion. Such a transaction could become the largest initial public offering in history.
Investors expect the IPO to significantly boost SoftBank’s investment gains. Those expectations have helped drive the technology group’s share price higher. SoftBank shares have risen about 127% since early April.
The company is also planning to invest up to 14 trillion yen in the construction of data centres in France.
Asia
China and Serbia agree to expand cooperation in emerging sectors
Chinese President Xi Jinping met Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic in Beijing, where the two leaders discussed bilateral ties and oversaw the signing of multiple cooperation agreements. Xi also awarded Vucic the Friendship Medal of the People’s Republic of China.
The meeting between Xi Jinping and Aleksandar Vucic began with an official welcoming ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.
The two leaders then proceeded to formal talks. Xi said China and Serbia had achieved “positive results” since jointly launching the construction of a “China-Serbia community with a shared future in the new era” in 2024.
Xi said the partnership had not only benefited the two peoples but had also set an example for international relations.
The Chinese president described relations between China and Serbia as an “iron friendship” based on deep historical ties and mutual trust.
Calling on both sides to strengthen exchanges, deepen practical cooperation and continue supporting each other on issues concerning their core interests, Xi also said the two countries should align their development strategies and advance cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative. In this context, he pointed to transport, energy and infrastructure projects.
Xi also called for expanding cooperation in emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence, the digital economy, green energy and advanced manufacturing.
Aleksandar Vucic congratulated China on the start of implementation of its 15th Five-Year Plan. Vucic also expressed confidence in China’s future development under Xi Jinping’s leadership.
The Serbian president said Belgrade attached great importance to relations with China and firmly supported Beijing on issues concerning China’s core interests.
Vucic thanked Chinese companies for their contributions to Serbia’s economic development and infrastructure construction.
Saying the two countries had made notable progress since establishing their comprehensive strategic partnership, Vucic added that cooperation had expanded across numerous sectors.
The Serbian president also praised China’s role in international affairs, saying Beijing approached smaller countries on the basis of equality and respect and defended international law.
Following the talks, the two leaders witnessed the signing of more than 20 cooperation agreements covering politics, trade, science and technology, education, legal affairs and culture.
The two sides also issued joint statements on steadily advancing the construction of a China-Serbia community with a shared future in the new era and jointly supporting the implementation of four global initiatives.
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