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Shin Bet chief reportedly visits Türkiye

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Israeli media has reported that Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar traveled to Türkiye over the weekend to meet with Ibrahim Kalin, the head of Türkiye’s National Intelligence Organisation (MIT). According to The Times of Israel, citing an Arab official, the discussion focused on the Gaza ceasefire, the resumption of hostage negotiations, and Türkiye’s potential role in facilitating these processes.

This report coincides with claims that senior Hamas officials based in Qatar have relocated to Türkiye.

After Qatar announced the suspension of its mediation role in Israel-Hamas negotiations, it was alleged that Hamas leadership might leave Qatar for Türkiye. However, Ankara has denied these allegations. According to Türkiye Foreign Ministry, “Members of the Hamas political bureau visit Türkiye from time to time. However, the allegations that the Hamas political bureau has moved to Türkiye are not true.”

U.S issues veiled warning

In response to these developments, U.S. State Department spokesman Matt Miller stated during a press conference that the United States could neither confirm nor deny reports of Hamas leaders relocating to Türkiye. Miller emphasized, “We believe that the leaders of a violent terrorist organization should not be able to live comfortably anywhere, and that certainly includes a major city in one of our key allies and partners.”

An Arab diplomat quoted in the Financial Times claimed that some Hamas officials had moved from Qatar to Türkiye after Qatar suspended its mediation role. Qatar reportedly warned the group last month that its political office in the Gulf state would only remain open if it engaged seriously in negotiations. Another source familiar with the matter confirmed that some Hamas officials were present in Türkiye, though their status—whether temporary or permanent—remains unclear.

Qatar has hosted Hamas’s political bureau since 2012 and has been actively mediating between the U.S., Egypt, and other stakeholders to establish a permanent Gaza ceasefire. Despite its role, Qatar has faced significant criticism, particularly from Republican lawmakers in the United States and Israeli leaders, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, for its decision to host Hamas’s political leadership.

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China refuses to meet with U.S. Defence Secretary

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China has reportedly refused to meet with the United States Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin at the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting-Plus in Laos this week.

According to CNN, Austin sought a meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Dong Jun, during the event as part of ongoing efforts to maintain military communication channels between the United States and the People’s Republic of China. However, a senior defence official traveling with Austin in Laos revealed that China rejected the offer, citing the recent U.S. arms sale to Taiwan as a key factor.

Three weeks ago, the United States approved a $2 billion arms deal with Taiwan, which included the provision of advanced surface-to-air missiles—marking the first time Taiwan has received such systems. China condemned the sale and vowed to take “resolute countermeasures” to protect its sovereignty.

China’s decision to decline the meeting in Laos follows just days after U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping held what the U.S. described as a “cordial and constructive” meeting in San Francisco. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan emphasized that the dialogue was “wide-ranging” and not focused on mediating between Beijing and the incoming U.S. administration.

Relations between the two nations have remained strained since then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in 2022, which prompted China to sever multiple lines of communication with the United States, including those related to military and climate cooperation. While military-to-military communication had recently resumed following the Biden-Xi meeting, this latest refusal highlights continued tensions in U.S.-China relations.

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G20 calls for more aid for Gaza, two-state solution and peace in Ukraine

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The leaders of the world’s 20 largest economies issued a joint statement on Monday calling for a global deal to fight hunger, more aid for war-torn Gaza and an end to hostilities in the Middle East and Ukraine.

The joint statement was approved by members of the group, but not unanimously. It also called for a future global tax on billionaires and reforms to the United Nations Security Council to allow it to expand beyond its current five permanent members.

At the start of the three-day meeting, which officially ends on Wednesday, experts doubted that Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva would be able to persuade the assembled leaders to reach an agreement at a meeting fraught with uncertainty over the new administration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and heightened global tensions due to wars in the Middle East and Ukraine.

Argentina objected to some language in early drafts and was the only country not to endorse the entire document.

Still, the fact that a joint statement was issued was a ‘success’ for Lula.

The declaration condemned wars and called for peace, but did not condemn any crimes.

Gaza and Ukraine on the agenda

Referring to the ‘catastrophic humanitarian situation in Gaza and the escalation in Lebanon’, the declaration stressed the need to increase humanitarian aid and better protect civilians.

“We reaffirm the Palestinian right to self-determination and reiterate our unwavering commitment to the vision of a two-state solution, with Israel and the state of Palestine living side by side in peace,” it said.

Israeli attacks have so far killed more than 43,000 Palestinians in Gaza and more than 3,500 in Lebanon, according to local health officials.

Biden, who met with G20 leaders before the statement was issued, suggested that ‘Hamas is solely responsible for the war’ and called on other leaders to ‘increase pressure on Hamas’ to accept a ceasefire agreement.

Biden’s decision to ease restrictions on Ukraine’s use of longer-range U.S. missiles, allowing it to strike Russia, was also on the agenda for the meeting.

“The United States strongly supports the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. I think everyone around this table should do the same,” Biden said at the summit.

Russian President Vladimir Putin did not attend the meeting, sending Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov instead. The G20 statement highlighted the ‘humanitarian suffering in Ukraine’ and called for peace, without mentioning Russia.

Billionaire tax and the fight against hunger

The statement called for a possible tax on global billionaires, which Lula also supports. Such a tax would affect about 3,000 people worldwide, including about 100 in Latin America.

The declaration also included a clause promoting gender equality.

Argentina signed the G20 declaration but had problems with references to the UN’s 2030 sustainable development agenda. Far-right President Javier Milei described the agenda as a ‘supranational programme of a socialist nature’. He also objected to calls to regulate hate speech on social media, which Milei said violated national sovereignty, and to the idea that governments should do more to fight hunger.

Much of the declaration focuses on Lula’s priority of eradicating hunger.

The Brazilian government stressed that Lula’s launch of the Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty on Monday was at least as important as the final G20 declaration. As of Monday, 82 countries had signed the plan, the Brazilian government said. The plan is also supported by organisations such as the Rockefeller Foundation and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Call for United Nations reform

Leaders have pledged to work for ‘transformative reform’ of the UN Security Council to ‘adapt it to the realities and demands of the 21st century, making it more representative, inclusive, efficient, effective, democratic and accountable’.

Nearly eighty years after the founding of the United Nations, almost all countries agree that the Security Council needs to be expanded to reflect the world of the 21st century and to include more voices. The main dilemma and the biggest disagreement are how to do this. The G20 statement did not answer this question.

“We call for an expanded composition of the Security Council that improves the representation of underrepresented and under-represented regions and groups, such as Africa, Asia-Pacific and Latin America and the Caribbean,” the declaration said.

Shortly before the UN summit in September, the United States announced its support for two new non-permanent seats for African countries and a first non-permanent seat for small island developing states. But the Group of Four – Brazil, Germany, India and Japan – prefer each other’s proposals for permanent seats. The larger Uniting for Consensus group of a dozen countries, including Pakistan, Italy, Turkey and Mexico, wants additional non-permanent seats for longer terms.

Xi backs calls for reform and equality

Speaking at the summit, Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized the interests of the so-called global south, which includes emerging economies, and called for reform of international institutions and consensus on how to achieve parity in finance, trade, digital technology, and the environment.

The Chinese leader said artificial intelligence should not be ‘a game of rich countries and the rich’ and stressed the need to improve digital governance for inclusive economic globalization.

Xi reiterated host Brazil’s call for greater economic equality, including poverty eradication and reform of institutions such as global creditors for developing countries.

Xi called for reform of the World Trade Organization’s dispute settlement mechanism to return to normal operation “as soon as possible”. The mechanism remains in limbo as the U.S. has blocked appointments to the Appellate Body over concerns of judicial activism.

China had filed a dispute settlement case at the WTO after the European Union imposed new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles last month.

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Global South agenda to take centre stage at G20 Summit in Brazil

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This year’s Group of 20 (G20) summit begins today in Rio de Janeiro, with host nation Brazil emphasizing climate solutions and reform of international institutions. The summit occurs against the backdrop of rising economic inequality and an increasingly fragmented world order.

Leaders from the world’s 20 largest economies, including outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, are convening in Rio. Russia has sent a delegation led by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, while Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House and escalating global conflicts, particularly in Ukraine, are expected to dominate discussions.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, recovering from a recent head injury, will preside over meetings with the African Union, the European Union, and the G20’s 19 other member states. As a former factory worker turned left-wing leader, Lula aims to build on India’s presidency by championing the interests of the Global South—a term describing less affluent economies historically marginalized by institutions dominated by wealthy, predominantly Western countries.

Brazil’s leadership marks a continuation of Global South representation in the G20, following presidencies by Indonesia and India, with South Africa set to take the helm before the United States assumes the role in 2026. This aligns with the recent expansion of BRICS—a multilateral coalition of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—which now includes Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates.

Sunaina Kumar, a senior fellow at India’s Observer Research Foundation, told Nikkei Asia that the G20 presidency’s rotation is “very important.” She highlighted that successive leadership from Global South nations amplifies their agenda amid a shifting world order. “Brazil built on India’s presidency, and India built on Indonesia,” Kumar explained. “With each presidency, the Global South agenda grows stronger and louder.” She cited the African Union’s inclusion at the 2023 New Delhi summit as a key example.

Meanwhile, Russia and China are leveraging BRICS to promote an alternative to the U.S.-led world order, engaging new partners such as Indonesia, Thailand, and Turkey. While trade within BRICS nations expands, the coalition’s influence within the G20 remains constrained by the divergent priorities of its members.

Stewart Patrick, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, noted in a recent report that G20 members like Brazil, India, and South Africa—along with Saudi Arabia, a BRICS invitee—benefit from keeping their strategic options open. He described their dual membership in both groups as an “inside-outside game,” enabling them to advocate for global governance reform in the G20 while fostering counter-hegemonic cooperation through BRICS Plus.

Under Brazil’s leadership, G20 discussions will address modernizing Western-led institutions such as the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and the World Trade Organization (WTO). Key agenda items include combating hunger and poverty, addressing climate change, and advancing clean energy initiatives. The summit is expected to culminate in a declaration advocating for peaceful resolutions to the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

For Lula, the G20 represents a diplomatic balancing act akin to Indian Prime Minister Modi’s approach. Both leaders have maintained friendly ties with Russia, despite Western efforts to impose sanctions and diplomatic isolation.

This year’s summit also unfolds amid speculation about the potential impact of Trump’s return to the White House. The world is watching to see how the next U.S. administration may shift its policies on Ukraine and Russia. Recently, the Biden administration authorized Ukraine to use long-range ATACMS missiles to target Russian territory, underscoring the complexity of U.S. involvement in global conflicts.

Joshua Meltzer, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, observed that the G20’s significance has diminished under Biden due to U.S.-China tensions and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. In contrast, the G7 has become “much more important” as a forum for advanced economies. However, Meltzer warned of a “destructive” dynamic that could emerge during a second Trump presidency, similar to his first term’s impact on the G7.

Although Western influence in the G20 may rise under Trump, experts believe that key developing countries will continue to champion the Global South agenda in the years ahead.

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