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Silicon Valley eschatology — 2: For the old order of things has passed away…

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“One of these creatures wrote to you once, ‘raise not that which you cannot put down.’ You were undone once before, perhaps in the same way; and now your own evil magic will undo you again. Curwen, a man cannot play beyond certain limits with nature, and every horror you have woven rises up to wipe you from the earth.”
—H. P. Lovecraft, The Case of Charles Dexter Ward

“— Then why don’t you start the experiment with him?

— Because Professor Dowell’s head is more valuable than a thousand other human heads. I started with a dog before bestowing a body upon Briquet’s head. Briquet’s head is much more valuable than the dog’s; and Dowell’s head is much more valuable than Briquet’s.

— The lives of a dog and of men are incomparable, Professor…

— In the same way as the heads of Dowell and Briquet.”
—Alexander Belyaev, Professor Dowell’s Head

Our protagonist is once again Peter Thiel. He laments our loss of excitement not for scientific discoveries, but for scientific heroism. He includes in this excitement the post-October Revolution Soviet Russia, the Soviet 1920s:

“In the late 19th, early 20th century, there was a movement in the Soviet Union in the 1920s, at the time of the Soviet Revolution, called cosmism. And the idea was that for the revolution to succeed, you had to physically resurrect all the dead people and bring them up to the age, through a combination of science and the workers.

The slogan was ‘Dead of the world, unite,’ and of course, they didn’t make that much progress on this. And then at some point, the show trials came with Stalin’s ascent to power, and the dying started to accelerate rather than decelerate.”

Let’s just say Thiel misremembers one thing: the first person to call the dead to resurrection was the cosmist Nikolai Fedorov, who passed away in 1903, long before the revolution.

Fedorov believed that death was not natural, but rather a flaw in human design, something to be overcome through technological and scientific means, just as medicine tries to cure diseases. First, death had to be understood in a new way: just as the soul continues to exist after leaving the body, we could understand death as a change in a person’s material state. Just as we have an ethical obligation to care for the sick using reason and knowledge, overcoming death and bringing the dead back to life was an ethical duty of the same kind.

The dead would return not as souls in heaven, but in material form, in this world, with all their memories and knowledge: nothing would end, and everyone and everything would continue.

Anton Vidokle and Brian Kuan Wood write the rest:

“Fedorov’s philosophy of the ‘common task’ therefore requires a total reorientation of all social relations, productive forces, economy, and politics toward a single goal: that of physical immortality and material resurrection.”(1)

However, it is true that in 1920s Soviet Russia, there were individuals and institutions linked to cosmism. The most well-known are Alexander Bogdanov, one of Lenin’s greatest adversaries, and the famous Proletkult, which he helped establish. The main research topics of cosmism included extending lifespan, resurrecting the dead, and migrating to other worlds in the universe; needless to say, science and technology played a dominant role in this research. Bogdanov, who dedicated his life to developing a “universal science” he later called Tektology, would, as fate would have it, pass away from an illness contracted during one of his blood transfusion experiments aimed at halting old age.(2)

There’s no need to get bogged down in names, but a kind of modern “cosmic anxiety” is driving scientists, politicians, philosophers, and some wealthy individuals toward the science of “immortality.” Cosmism, or its more recent version, transhumanism, perhaps stretching from Faust to the present day, leads—or at least wants to lead—to resurrecting the dead, or failing that, to postponing death, or failing that, to advancing our biological existence, something often identified with black magic, grave robbing, the forbidden alchemy of the Middle Ages, world domination, preventing Armageddon, and many other things.(3)

But here, too, there are optimists and pessimists. For example, Fedorov, as an Orthodox Christian, could argue that we should use our reason for the living and the dead to unite and establish heaven on earth. But Georges Bataille suggested that since the Sun sends more energy to the Earth than the organisms on its surface can immediately absorb, this excess energy naturally leads to surplus. If this surplus is not consumed through ecstatic festivals and collective sexual fantasies, it will be spent on violence and war. Therefore, “cosmic energy” is the reason why human culture and politics “forever oscillate between order and disorder.”(4)

Finally, we close this topic with Victory over the Sun, the futurist-mystical opera by leading figures of the Russian avant-garde Kazimir Malevich, Velimir Khlebnikov, Aleksei Kruchenykh, and Mikhail Matyushin. Boris Groys, the editor of the book on Russian cosmism we quoted, writes — and I will quote it at length without alteration:

“The work celebrated the destruction of the Sun and the transformation of the cosmos into chaos. This [destruction and chaos] was symbolized by the black square, which Malevich used for the first time for the opera’s stage design. At the beginning of the twentieth century, the reign of chaos seemed to be unavoidable because nobody believed anymore in the stability of the divine or natural order. The idea of a stable order, be it religious or rational, seemed to have lost its ontological guarantee. The new technologies were permanently displacing, outmoding, and ultimately destroying the old things, old traditions, and accustomed ways of life—and thus undermining the belief in the ‘traditional world order.’ Technological development, being subjected to the logic of progress, revealed itself as a force of chaos that did not tolerate any stable order. The future began to be seen as an enemy of both the past and the present. And precisely for this reason, the futurists celebrated the future because the future contained a promise that everything that existed in the past and still existed would be annihilated.”

We can identify the roots of the “end times” or “embracing the apocalypse” idea embodied by Thiel in the first part of this series. The enthusiasm for technology, the supposed faith in science, the idea of humanity escaping the apocalypse through technical means to become a superman, or escaping the apocalypse as a superman… Beneath this optimistic facade, a clear expectation of disaster grins. Technology becomes the sole refuge for the pessimists awaiting the apocalypse, especially the property owners. The apocalypse doesn’t necessarily have to be a giant meteor hitting the Earth or a pandemic: for instance, the arrival of “people of color” in America by the thousands is a mini-apocalypse, as are state subsidies for the poor, and even national sovereignty and taxation…

Artificial intelligence: Beyond good and evil

Let’s move toward more concrete discussions by noting that artificial intelligence (AI), the focal point of this transhumanist clamor, has created two main factions in Silicon Valley.

Elke Schwarz, a professor of political theory at Queen Mary University of London, summarizes the two factions in the Valley as follows: The first is the e/acc, or “effective accelerationists,” who argue that technology, especially AI, is a panacea for all ills; the second is a group called Effective Altruism (EA), which focuses on managing the dangers AI poses to humanity.

Venture capitalist and Trump supporter Marc Andreessen, who made headlines in 2023 with his “Techno-Optimist Manifesto,” is a prominent figure in the first group. The manifesto advocates for individuals with extraordinary abilities to build a technological utopia that will turn us into “technological supermen” and create a “far superior way of life and being.”

Andreessen’s virtual pamphlet rests on the belief that “technology is liberating.” Under the subheading “Lies,” he defines an enemy, stating, “They say technology takes our jobs, lowers our wages, increases inequality, threatens our health, ruins the environment, degrades our society, corrupts our children, impairs our humanity, threatens our future, and is on the verge of ruining everything.” He argues that our intelligence is our “natural right”; yet “they” tell us to deny our control over nature, our ability to build a better world.

Technology expands “what it means to be human,” at least Andreessen believes so. So who are the “enemies”? Anything that stands in the way of technological progress and the technologically produced utopia of abundance: statism, collectivism, socialism, bureaucracy, gerontocracy, regulation, ethics, sustainability… The list goes on.

In a February 7, 2024, Independent article, Rohan Pandey, an AI research engineer who organized an e/Acc meeting attended by about 65 people, including well-known startup founders and investors, says, “E/Acc is about realizing that our role as AI developers is perfectly aligned with, or directly emerges from, the fundamental thermodynamic will of the universe.”(5)

Supporters include Andreessen, his investor friend Garry Tan, and eccentric figures like Martin Shkreli, known as “Pharma Bro,” who has become a medical AI entrepreneur.

According to EA, however, AI is the greatest threat that could lead to the complete extinction of humanity, while also offering a path to “countless benefits and the extension of human life” on Earth, in space, or in the digital realm.

The EA faction, dubbed “doomers” by e/acc supporters, also operates with stories of apocalypse and triumph projected through technology.

The focus of this is the pursuit of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence). According to Schwarz, AGI, often adorned with spiritual terms, represents the desire to create artificial consciousness; this means an artificial creation where technology is no longer a thing but a superior being.

Schwarz also points to the logic of capital behind these factions, reminding us that both are actually competing to gain material benefit from their own ideological front:

“Both groups, however, represent two sides of the same quasi-spiritual coin, in which AI is posited as the organising principles of a future-oriented reality. Both groups are deeply embedded in the logic of venture capital and have a significant vested interest in promoting the development and proliferation of more AI and attracting more capital for their own AI ventures. Both camps are already backed by enormous amounts of capital investment and as such have a significant impact on our collective visions of the future. In doing so, both are clearly drawn to eschatological narratives that deal with secrets, the unknown, and the imaginary.”

Historically, those who could convincingly claim to possess secret knowledge about the inevitable future of humanity were the ones with greater political power. According to Schwarz, the situation is the same today, and “those with material interests understand that techno-eschatological narratives have an enormous impact.”

Thus, the narrative of freedom and liberation is actually constructed to circumvent the narrative of freedom and liberation of the oppressed. The ideology of Silicon Valley, which appears as a destructive critique, is used not so that humanity can break its chains and gather living flowers, but so that it is both chained and deprived of its imaginary flowers.(6)

Geneticizing wealth: The super-intelligent caste fantasy

Silicon Valley’s fear and rebellion are not new, as I have emphasized before. Doubts about the intelligence of the poor, workers, immigrants, “people of color,” sometimes Slavs or Jews, and at other times the Latin peoples of Southern Europe, took on a “scientific” form with the spread of racial theories in the last quarter of the 19th century, establishing the well-known racial hierarchies.

The birth of eugenics is a result of this. Although “racial hygiene” reached a level of madness in Nazism, it also rested on a “plausible” pseudo-science. A similar obsession exists in Japanese imperialism. Social fear is biologized, and Darwin’s thought is socialized.(7)

According to a recent Wall Street Journal (WSJ) report, tech entrepreneurs in Silicon Valley are actively investing in creating a “smarter” generation using advanced genetic testing and embryo selection methods. Some tech executives are paying up to $50,000 for services that predict the IQ level of their unborn children.

But the enthusiasm for creating a super-intelligent caste is, again, based on fear. The report highlights that the most unusual reason comes from a group of computer scientists known as Rationalists, who fear that artificial intelligence poses an existential risk to humanity!

The co-founder of Genomic Prediction, a company intended to create a super-intelligent wealthy caste, says this group believes that one of the ways to create safe AI is for it to be “developed by smarter people.”

The co-founder says, “Some of these people are dedicated to a long-term eugenics program aimed at creating smarter people, and smarter people will be the ones to make AI safe.”

Margaux MacColl, writing for the San Francisco Standard and having participated in these tests herself out of a “journalistic” passion, gives us more detailed information. A venture capitalist whose party she attended and his wife, who had recently given birth, had their embryos tested by Orchid, a genetic testing company that charges over $2,500 per embryo for polygenic diseases (complex diseases caused by the combined effect of many genes, such as bipolar disorder or Alzheimer’s). (Thiel was an investor in this company). The author noted that the baby looked like any other baby but had been “optimized” to the extent that genetic science allowed.

Although startups conducting polygenic tests are the newest stars of Silicon Valley, research shows that assigning a “risk score” for polygenic diseases is still a gamble, with results being “random” and “inconsistent.” Critics claim these tests offer parents a dangerous “illusion of control” by relying excessively on data from people of European descent.

In the last five years, tech leaders like Anne Wojcicki, Sam Altman, Vitalik Buterin, Elad Gil, and Alexis Ohanian have invested millions of dollars in direct-to-consumer polygenic testing startups such as Orchid, Nucleus, and Genomic Prediction.

Famous wealthy individuals who use these products include Elon Musk, Michael Phelps, Bryan Johnson, and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong.

“It’s not always transparent how companies calculate these scores. They claim to have a proprietary algorithm, but in reality, that algorithm is a complete black box. If these scores are not entirely accurate, consumers could make choices detrimental to their health based on false information,” says bioethicist Jacob Sherkow, a law professor at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, giving a clue.

Even if companies technically test the same number of variants, they may have completely different datasets. Gabriel Lazaro-Munoz, a neuroscientist and bioethicist who researches the societal impacts of genomic science, says these datasets can be skewed toward specific races or differ in sample sizes, which can significantly affect individuals’ results across companies.

Christine Rosen, writing for Commentary, believes that these companies want to eliminate not the gene thought to cause the disease, but the baby carrying that gene.

The return of IQ and neurocastes

“In Silicon Valley, IQ is loved,” says the founder of one of these genetic testing startups.

In his book Hayek’s Bastards, Quinn Slobodian explains how the concepts of IQ and “neurocastes” became widespread in the US in the 1990s. After the dissolution of the USSR, the links between heredity and social hierarchies were re-established more firmly; the “human genome” project added fuel to the fire:

“The neurocastes produced by the knowledge economy seemed to prove both the existence of an elite and the futility of efforts to equalize outcomes through welfare, public education, or affirmative action programs they saw as the burdensome legacy of the 1960s Great Society project.”

The welfare state, affirmative action programs, planning, etc., are useless because, as “scientifically” proven, “neurocastes” exist, and intelligence differs socially (racially). These genetic traits cannot be corrected or improved by external interventions, so preaching about the “welfare state” or egalitarianism is a fool’s errand. As the highly controversial 1994 book The Bell Curve stated, castes were defined by cognitive ability, and the claim was that there was a “cognitive stratification” in the US: the more intelligent members of society were drawn from their communities into elite education and high-income employment, while the low-intelligence population continued to multiply, “encouraged by a skewed welfare system that rewarded large families.”

Slobodian points out that Silicon Valley was a center of race science in the 1960s and 1970s. For example, the founder of Stanford University was both a horse breeder and a believer in the possibility of improving the human race. Silicon Valley’s Nobel laureate physicist William Shockley was a leading proponent of “scientific racism” and advocated ideas like paying low-IQ men to be sterilized.

According to Slobodian, this resurgent “IQ racism” signaled a fundamental economic transformation:

“Like Young before them, Murray and Herrnstein after them, and countless Silicon Valley technolibertarians after them, they were looking to a future where labor would be increasingly performed by ‘cybernetic and automation control systems.’ As machines made more workers redundant, they would make the workers who designed and operated the machines all the more important. IQ racism reflected the needs of the emerging knowledge economy.”

In an article for The Guardian, Slobodian emphasizes that when manufacturing still dominated the US economy, IQ was valued as a way to measure educational outcomes, but with the emergence of the “knowledge economy” in the 1980s and 90s, knowledge workers “indisputably became the vanguard of future prosperity.”

Therefore, they want education in the US to be “more finely” structured through programs that identify gifted and talented children, take them out of public schools, and place them in intensive summer programs designed for the brilliant.

One of the products of this gifted children program is Curtis Yarvin, familiar to our readers. Yarvin, praised by J.D. Vance, was a member of Julian Stanley’s Center for Talented Youth in his youth. Continuing to advocate for the importance of IQ as a measure of human worth, Yarvin, as a representative of the “Dark Enlightenment” or “neo-reaction” movement in the late 2000s, would suggest that IQ tests could be used to disqualify voters in post-apartheid South Africa.

Peter Thiel also said in 2014 that the problem with the Republican Party was that most of its leaders had “lower IQs” compared to those in the Democratic Party.

Artificial and intelligent: A burden in existence, a wound in absence

For some, it is a kind of irony that tech billionaires praise superior human intelligence while scrambling to develop artificial general intelligence that could one day surpass it.

For example, Google co-founder Larry Page had accused Elon Musk, who so stubbornly defends human intelligence in the face of advancing technology, of being a “speciesist.”

But Musk also has a solution: he plans to upgrade our biological hardware and merge human and machine intelligence using electronic brain implants developed by his company Neuralink. With a technology we could call “human enhancement,” the tool or device goes beyond being a part or organ of human creative activity. It’s not machine-man, but man-machine that is maturing.

Slobodian questions how the obsession with IQ can be reconciled with the fact that some white-collar professions, which have been somewhat coddled for the last 30 years, will disappear while billions are spent on artificial intelligence. This is because the IQ obsession was at the heart of the “meritocracy” narrative and became a means for white-collar workers to collaborate with the “top,” to emulate them, and occasionally to climb the social ladder.

Yet, there is no irony: both artificial intelligence and the IQ obsession are tools for the devaluation of this sometimes internationalized white-collar labor.

Necromancy and profiting from mystery

The technological and philosophical transformations in Silicon Valley seem to be heavily influenced by a set of ideologies that Timnit Gebru and Émile P. Torres have defined as “TESCREAL.”

TESCREAL is an acronym for: transhumanism, extropianism, singularitarianism, cosmism, rationalism, effective altruism, and longtermism.

In an interview, Torres explains, “These polysyllabic words are a bit of a mouthful. You can think of transhumanism as the backbone of this cluster of ideologies.”

Torres suggests that all other ideologies emerge from transhumanism. In short, transhumanism is a philosophical movement that advocates for the use of advanced technologies to “enhance” and redesign humans, with the ultimate goal of creating a radically enhanced “post-human” species.

The author points out that although the public relations efforts of transhumanists focus on the potential of medical advances and the idea of conquering death, in an environment where historical levels of inequality prevail, it is an “inevitable consequence” that the dreams of transhumanism will primarily benefit the rich.

In fact, according to him, it is even possible to characterize transhumanism as an effort to “create a master race.” The pursuit of an eternal, post-human life is ambitious enough, but for the new cults of Silicon Valley, the end of our humanity is just the beginning.

As we conclude this section, let’s return to Schwarz. Our professor reminds us that, despite everything, the narrative and power of Silicon Valley are ultimately about money.

She emphasizes that the sanctification of AI as a “demigod” primarily serves those who invest capital in AI companies. Especially when we look at the logic of venture capital, it becomes clear that the “spiritual” narrative serves to bolster the financial wealth of those who invest enormous sums in startups like OpenAI (e/acc) and Anthropic (EA), with the expectation of excessive capital gains.

According to Schwarz, “To create belief in a technology is to sanctify a startup’s capacity to deliver this demigod technology, which in turn serves to elevate the value of such a company.”

Thiel, who runs one of the world’s largest venture capital funds, Founders Fund, argues in his best-selling 2014 book Zero to One: Notes on Startups, Or How to Build the Future, that to build a valuable company, one must use “existing secrets.”

In the book, he sadly notes that the general belief in secrets (and, as Schwarz relays, along with secrets, myths) has eroded. He argues that entrepreneurs should build their companies based on the power of secrets: “A great company is a conspiracy to change the world; when you share your secret, the recipient of it becomes a fellow conspirator.”

Schwarz continues:

“Claiming to hold the secret to salvation or doom is a tried and tested, highly effective narrative that draws in an ever-larger audience, willingly or not. And it ultimately comes back to a very simple but very powerful equation: money equals power. Venture capital, with its extensive lobbying power, is increasingly shaping the policy landscape in various political domains, including the military. This structure of power and influence is, at its core, built on the current variant of technological eschatology.”

Biology and genetics are just one of the gateways to the post-human. Other things also enter through the door opened by biology in the escape from the crowds, from the low-IQ, from death—in short, from Armageddon. Geographical separation goes hand in hand with racial segregation. In the next part, we will look at the escape routes of the Silicon Valley elite from the apocalypse.


(*) The reference in the title is from Revelation 21:4: “He will wipe every tear from their eyes. There will be no more death or mourning or crying or pain, for the old order of things has passed away.”

(1) Quoted from the Foreword written by the duo, see Boris Groys, Russian Cosmism, MIT Press, 2018, New York.

(2) Bogdanov is also the author of Red Star, which for some reason is presented as the “first Bolshevik utopia.” The book describes a journey to Mars and the experiences of our Russian social democrat encountering the socialism built on that planet. His explanation of the socialism built on Mars through a perfect equilibrium and almost some psycho-chemical properties of the Martians must be quite significant: Indeed, the Martians try to eliminate the “capitalist consciousness” in our Earthling hero, Leonid, with drugs. For the excellent critique of Red Star by the famous Soviet psychologist Evald Ilyenkov, see https://www.marxists.org/archive/ilyenkov/works/positive/positii.htm. We will address the idea of space travel and the colonization of space in the next part of the series.

(3) Thiel is one of the oldest and most active investors in life extension and immortality research. He funded the SENS Research Foundation, an institute dedicated to discovering the secret to eternal life, run by scientist Aubrey De Grey and Thiel’s partner Jim O’Neill (now Deputy Undersecretary at the Department of Health and Human Services). Thiel also backed the genetic startup Halcyon Molecular, which aimed to stop aging, donated $1 million to the Singularity Institute, which aims to download our consciousness into computers, and became a member of the Alcor Life Extension Foundation to have his body frozen upon death in the hope of being revived in a more advanced future. It is even claimed that he has researched the power of delaying aging by injecting himself with the blood of young people. When asked about this at a conference, he replied, “I’m not a vampire.”

(4) Alexander Chizhevsky goes even further, linking mass revolutionary movements with the movement of the Sun and also suggesting that the historical process is characterized by the succession of active and passive periods corresponding to eleven-year cycles of solar activity.

(5) Independent writer Io Dodds reports: “The second law of thermodynamics says that all the energy in a closed system will eventually diffuse into a useless state of equilibrium. The physicist Jeremy England has proposed that the cosmos is inherently biased towards forms of matter that speed up this process – such as life, which relentlessly replicates itself to consume all available energy. E/Acc generalises this new but controversial theory to claim that maximising our energy consumption is the ultimate purpose of our existence. The universe, sometimes personified as a ‘thermodynamic god’, wants us to conquer the stars and turn them into giant power plants, and all of human history has been steps towards this cosmic destiny.”

(6) Marx uses this metaphor in his Contribution to the Critique of Hegel’s Philosophy of Right: he underlines that unless the critique of religion by philosophy also turns to the critique of unholy forms, it will not mean the liberation of man from his chains, but will turn into a torture that will further intensify his suffering.

(7) It must be admitted that Darwin provided considerable support for this. On the Origin of Species, which openly relies on a Malthusian population theory, was later fiercely criticized by Marx and Engels, despite their initial enthusiasm.

America

US national debt hits record $40 trillion as borrowing accelerates

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The US national debt has reached a record $40 trillion as borrowing expanded at a historic pace.

The development has heightened investor concern over the state of US public finances, despite Donald Trump’s pledge to bring spending under control.

Gross federal debt crossed the threshold on Tuesday, according to Treasury Department data published on Wednesday.

Calculations by the Financial Times show that debt climbed by $3 trillion over the past year, registering the fastest rate of increase in history outside the pandemic period.

Marc Goldwein, senior policy director at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget think tank, said:

“This is like a giant, flashing ‘check engine’ light. It doesn’t mean your engine will melt down tomorrow, but it is a clear sign that things have gotten quite out of hand. And it’s not just the size of the number; it’s the speed at which we’ve reached it.”

The US national debt has surged over the past two decades, climbing from below $6 trillion at the start of the century (about $12 trillion in 2026 dollar terms) as massive public spending during the financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic compounded enormous budget deficits.

In the past 10 years alone, the total debt load has doubled. Debt held by the public—a key gauge tracked by markets that excludes intra-governmental holdings—now exceeds $32 trillion, roughly equal to the size of the US economy.

The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office expects debt held by the public to surpass the post-Second World War record of 106% of GDP by the end of the decade and to reach 120% by 2036.

As borrowing increased, investors began demanding a higher premium to hold US bonds.

This has driven interest rates higher, leaving debt servicing costs larger than national defence spending.

The situation has created unease in Washington. On Wednesday, prior to the release of the debt data, the Treasury Department announced it would double its buybacks of long-term government debt in a bid to halt a recent sell-off.

Last week, the US paid its highest borrowing costs since 2001 to sell 30-year bonds.

Wednesday’s 10-year Treasury auction produced the highest yields since 2007 as investors fretted over the scale of the debt.

Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, said: “That is an awful lot of money being borrowed. It is going to feed on itself with interest expenses. If interest rates rise because of concerns about the high debt load, that will lead to even more interest expense. It’s a vicious cycle.”

Trump returned to office in 2025 promising to rein in “wasteful” government spending.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pledged to reduce the budget deficit to 3% of GDP by the end of Trump’s term.

However, measures to trim spending in some areas were offset by broad tax cuts in the president’s signature 2025 fiscal legislation, the “One Big Beautiful Bill”, which will add more than $4 trillion to the debt by 2034.

Trump also requested an increase of more than 50% in annual defence spending, seeking $1.5 trillion in the largest budget request in US history.

The deficit fell to 5.9% of GDP in 2025 from 6.3% the previous year. The CBO expects the deficit to decline to 5.8% this year. The US national debt comprises years of accumulated deficits compounded by interest charges.

Analysts noted that both US political parties missed opportunities during periods of economic expansion to take significant steps toward curbing spending.

Calculations by the Congressional Joint Economic Committee indicate that over the past year, total national debt grew by roughly $7.9 billion a day, or approximately $91,000 per second.

Budget specialists said they hoped crossing the $40 trillion threshold would spur politicians from both parties to take meaningful steps to bring borrowing back under control.

Michael Peterson, head of the Peterson Foundation, a think tank dedicated to returning debt to a sustainable trajectory, said:

“My hope is that this serves as a national alarm and wake-up call to address our fiscal future. If we keep borrowing this much, we are going to face a day of reckoning in financial markets… People will wake up one day and decide: ‘You know what? I’m more worried about the United States now. I’m going to demand higher interest rates, or I’m going to put my money somewhere else.'”

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America

Independent US oil firms set to sign output deals in Venezuela

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Several independent US oil producers are expected to sign production contracts with Venezuela’s state-owned oil company in the coming days.

According to sources who spoke to Politico on condition of anonymity because details of the event have not yet been made public, a signing ceremony involving several small US producers and Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) was scheduled to take place in Houston on Tuesday (18 August) evening.

One source said Venezuela’s oil minister and the head of PDVSA’s exploration division were scheduled to attend the ceremony. Another source added that the event could be postponed until Wednesday morning.

The White House, which did not immediately respond to a request for comment, was not expected to be officially involved in Tuesday’s ceremony.

However, the development follows a visit by senior officials to Caracas in late April, where they signed memorandums of understanding that established the framework for formal production agreements in the country, which holds some of the world’s largest oil reserves.

Despite the tailwind provided by high crude prices, negotiations had stalled over key details such as dispute resolution, while officials in Caracas contended with two devastating earthquakes in June that claimed thousands of lives.

Venezuela’s interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, announced new regulations last month that offer more favourable fiscal terms to international oil companies.

According to an industry source close to the negotiations, the signing of the contracts comes after the Trump administration renewed pressure on Rodríguez to ensure PDVSA concludes agreements with American firms.

The source said these efforts included outreach by Secretary of State Marco Rubio to discuss how increased oil revenues could assist the country following the devastating earthquake earlier this summer.

The source added:

“Delcy reached a renewed awareness that increased oil production is the way to rebuild after the earthquakes and to achieve what her government wants to do for the people suffering from the earthquakes.”

David Goldwyn, president of the international energy consultancy Goldwyn Global Strategies, said investments from independent oil producers and boosting output from existing fields would serve as the “primary source of new oil growth for the next few years” for Venezuela.

“While the oil majors are trying to buy time to see how the political situation clarifies and whether they can cherry-pick the best assets, independent companies can de-risk their projects in the short term,” Goldwyn said.

However, Goldwyn noted that these investments would add no more than 300,000 barrels per day to the country’s oil production over the next year, falling far short of the multi-million-barrel increase that officials in Caracas and Washington wish to see.

“Until the framework improves, electricity is restored, and the political picture becomes clear, all we will see is incremental production growth,” the strategist said.

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US-Brazil rift widens over proposed sanctions and trade tariffs

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Diplomatic tensions between the two countries remain at a peak as the US government considers new sanctions targeting a judge on Brazil’s Supreme Court.

According to sources familiar with the matter who spoke to the Financial Times (FT), the Trump administration is evaluating new measures against Justice Alexandre de Moraes, whom it sanctioned last year on human rights grounds before subsequently rescinding that decision.

Washington’s renewed focus on the magistrate threatens to widen the rift between Brazil and the US across trade and political spheres, casting a shadow over upcoming elections in Latin America’s largest nation.

A little over a year ago, De Moraes was subjected to sanctions under the Global Magnitsky Act. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent accused him at the time of engaging in a “repressive censorship campaign, arbitrary detentions that violate human rights, and politicized prosecutions,” including measures directed at former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro.

Bolsonaro, an ally of Donald Trump, was sentenced last year to 27 years in prison for plotting a coup.

However, sanctions targeting the judge, his wife, and a company owned by his family were lifted in December following a meeting and phone conversations between Trump and his Brazilian counterpart, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

According to a source familiar with the matter who requested anonymity, US interest in De Moraes was revived partly due to a case that ignited a debate over press freedom in Brazil.

The judge authorized police raids against a journalist and two sources as part of an investigation into media coverage concerning a Supreme Court justice and his family.

De Moraes defended the action, arguing that the information in question had been illegally obtained and disclosed, thereby endangering the safety of the justice’s family.

The judge gained global prominence several years ago following a public conflict with Elon Musk, which briefly led to the billionaire’s X platform being blocked in Brazil.

Supporters say he “helped protect Brazilian democracy against a wave of misinformation.”

However, critics, including the Trump administration, view him as violating free speech rights.

“He went after the president’s supporters. Not just Elon Musk, but MAGA supporters in Brazil as well. Even if we want to build good relations with Brazil, it is clear that this man is an adversary,” said a person familiar with the US government’s thinking.

Another person stated that the reimposition of Magnitsky sanctions is “under evaluation,” noting that such sanctions entail the freezing of US-based assets and a prohibition on American companies and individuals conducting business with targeted parties.

While it remains unclear whether or when a decision will be reached, any such move would intensify an escalating retaliatory spiral between the two most populous countries in the Americas.

Tensions initially erupted more than a year ago when Trump imposed a 50% tariff on Brazil while demanding that prosecution proceedings against Bolsonaro be dropped.

That tariff was subsequently invalidated by the US Supreme Court.

A brief period of de-escalation since then has drawn to a close, with the US applying a 25% import tariff on numerous Brazilian products in July.

Last month, Brazil denied entry to two Trump envoys over concerns regarding potential interference in its upcoming October elections. Washington rejects those allegations.

Lula, who is seeking re-election for a fourth presidential term, suggested that the US might act to support his main opponent, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the jailed former leader’s son.

The 80-year-old president has also engaged in a sharp public exchange of words with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

On Sunday, thousands of supporters gathered to welcome Lula at a stadium in Sao Bernardo do Campo, an industrial suburb of Sao Paulo, for the official launch of his election campaign.

Lula originally achieved prominence in the area during the late 1970s as a union leader heading metalworkers’ strikes.

Speaking at the venue, Lula said, “I thank the working men and women of this country who believed that someone like themselves could achieve more than someone different from them. As long as I am alive, I will not stop fighting, and I will not allow the right [to prevail].”

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