South Korean voters go to the polls tomorrow to elect members of the country’s National Assembly. The outcome could have a lasting impact on the remaining three years of President Yoon Suk-yeol’s five-year term.
Yoon’s conservative People’s Power Party (PPP) is aiming to win a majority against the liberal bloc led by the Democratic Party (DP) in the elections, which will see all 300 seats in the National Assembly, the country’s parliament, contested.
The polls, which opened at 6am, will close at 6pm and voters will elect members of the National Assembly who will serve for four years. While 254 of the 300 seats will be decided by direct district elections, under the country’s partial proportional representation system, voters will also choose a political party and decide the distribution of the remaining 46 seats.
But given Yoon’s relatively weak support – currently hovering in the mid-30s – the PPP will face an uphill battle to wrest a parliamentary majority from the progressive bloc amid the country’s deepening political polarisation.
Instead, observers say the most likely scenario to emerge from the elections is something closer to the status quo, with both sides forced to continue to seek compromise or face the prospect of gridlock on key agenda items.
The PPP has been gaining momentum in the run-up to the elections, with a Gallup Korea poll released late last month showing 37 percent of respondents backing Yoon’s party, 29 percent the DP and 12 percent the third most popular party, the National Innovation Party, which has ties to the DP.
Analysts say the election will closely resemble the 2022 presidential race, in which Yoon narrowly defeated his arch-rival, current DP leader Lee Jae-myung, by just 0.73%, the smallest margin in South Korean presidential history.
Still, experts say voters unhappy with Yoon and the PPP’s performance could punish him and the party at the ballot box by giving the liberal bloc a 200-seat majority to override presidential vetoes and even push through measures to impeach the president.
Tokyo and Washington watching closely
Yoon’s performance in the election will be closely watched in Tokyo and Washington.
With strong encouragement from Washington, the South Korean leader has taken ambitious and politically delicate steps to rebuild Seoul’s once frayed bilateral relations with Japan, while strengthening trilateral ties with the United States, the two countries’ common ally in the face of North Korea’s growing nuclear and missile threat.
Yoon has also worked closely with the administration of US President Joe Biden, who has sought to revitalise Washington’s alliances in Asia in the face of China’s assertive foreign policy.
It is unclear exactly how the elections will affect Seoul’s foreign policy orientation, but no significant change is expected no matter who wins. Observers say that South Korea’s president wields too much power in agenda-setting and policy implementation, and that the National Assembly has little room to take on the president’s foreign policy agenda.
“I don’t think the election will have any impact on South Korea’s foreign policy,” said Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a professor at King’s College London and an expert on the two Koreas, noting that despite the DP’s current power in the National Assembly, “Yoon has been able to establish close ties with the US and much closer ties with Japan”.
“Whatever the outcome of the election, I hope Yoon will be able to continue his current foreign policy without facing major obstacles from the National Assembly,” Ramon told The Japan Times.
Still, Seoul’s alliance with Washington remains overwhelmingly popular in South Korea, while an opposition victory could raise doubts about the continuity of trilateral cooperation with Japan, which ruled the Korean peninsula as a colony from 1910 to 1945.
While public support for the move has increased under Yoon’s impetus, the issue remains controversial, and Seoul’s ties with Tokyo – and the many historical issues that have dogged relations since normalisation in 1965 – have traditionally been used as a powerful political weapon against conservatives.
Tokyo and Washington may therefore be concerned about the election results, which could have implications for the future of their staunch ally Yoon.
If he fails to secure a parliamentary majority, he may find it difficult to push through his agenda
Indeed, bogged down and forced to devote resources to defending its policies, the Yoon administration may find it difficult to advance the president’s agenda, especially as it grapples with scandals and gaffes that have stagnated approval ratings.
The president’s gaffe during a supermarket visit last month, when he described the price of green onions, a common ingredient in South Korean cuisine, as “reasonable”, sparked a huge wave of criticism amid voter concerns about inflation.
Corruption also remains a top issue for many voters.
The Dior bag scandal, in which ambassador and first lady Kim Keon-hee, who resigned last month amid controversy over her appointment amid a corruption probe, allegedly accepted a gift of a 3 million won ($2,250) luxury bag, has put Yoon and the PPP on the defensive.
Experts say the public’s perception of Yoon as indifferent to their concerns could have repercussions, especially if his party suffers an electoral setback.
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