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South Korean parliamentary elections will also determine Yoon’s programme

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South Korean voters go to the polls tomorrow to elect members of the country’s National Assembly. The outcome could have a lasting impact on the remaining three years of President Yoon Suk-yeol’s five-year term.

Yoon’s conservative People’s Power Party (PPP) is aiming to win a majority against the liberal bloc led by the Democratic Party (DP) in the elections, which will see all 300 seats in the National Assembly, the country’s parliament, contested.

The polls, which opened at 6am, will close at 6pm and voters will elect members of the National Assembly who will serve for four years. While 254 of the 300 seats will be decided by direct district elections, under the country’s partial proportional representation system, voters will also choose a political party and decide the distribution of the remaining 46 seats.

But given Yoon’s relatively weak support – currently hovering in the mid-30s – the PPP will face an uphill battle to wrest a parliamentary majority from the progressive bloc amid the country’s deepening political polarisation.

Instead, observers say the most likely scenario to emerge from the elections is something closer to the status quo, with both sides forced to continue to seek compromise or face the prospect of gridlock on key agenda items.

The PPP has been gaining momentum in the run-up to the elections, with a Gallup Korea poll released late last month showing 37 percent of respondents backing Yoon’s party, 29 percent the DP and 12 percent the third most popular party, the National Innovation Party, which has ties to the DP.

Analysts say the election will closely resemble the 2022 presidential race, in which Yoon narrowly defeated his arch-rival, current DP leader Lee Jae-myung, by just 0.73%, the smallest margin in South Korean presidential history.

Still, experts say voters unhappy with Yoon and the PPP’s performance could punish him and the party at the ballot box by giving the liberal bloc a 200-seat majority to override presidential vetoes and even push through measures to impeach the president.

Tokyo and Washington watching closely

Yoon’s performance in the election will be closely watched in Tokyo and Washington.

With strong encouragement from Washington, the South Korean leader has taken ambitious and politically delicate steps to rebuild Seoul’s once frayed bilateral relations with Japan, while strengthening trilateral ties with the United States, the two countries’ common ally in the face of North Korea’s growing nuclear and missile threat.

Yoon has also worked closely with the administration of US President Joe Biden, who has sought to revitalise Washington’s alliances in Asia in the face of China’s assertive foreign policy.

It is unclear exactly how the elections will affect Seoul’s foreign policy orientation, but no significant change is expected no matter who wins. Observers say that South Korea’s president wields too much power in agenda-setting and policy implementation, and that the National Assembly has little room to take on the president’s foreign policy agenda.

“I don’t think the election will have any impact on South Korea’s foreign policy,” said Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a professor at King’s College London and an expert on the two Koreas, noting that despite the DP’s current power in the National Assembly, “Yoon has been able to establish close ties with the US and much closer ties with Japan”.

“Whatever the outcome of the election, I hope Yoon will be able to continue his current foreign policy without facing major obstacles from the National Assembly,” Ramon told The Japan Times.

Still, Seoul’s alliance with Washington remains overwhelmingly popular in South Korea, while an opposition victory could raise doubts about the continuity of trilateral cooperation with Japan, which ruled the Korean peninsula as a colony from 1910 to 1945.

While public support for the move has increased under Yoon’s impetus, the issue remains controversial, and Seoul’s ties with Tokyo – and the many historical issues that have dogged relations since normalisation in 1965 – have traditionally been used as a powerful political weapon against conservatives.

Tokyo and Washington may therefore be concerned about the election results, which could have implications for the future of their staunch ally Yoon.

If he fails to secure a parliamentary majority, he may find it difficult to push through his agenda

Indeed, bogged down and forced to devote resources to defending its policies, the Yoon administration may find it difficult to advance the president’s agenda, especially as it grapples with scandals and gaffes that have stagnated approval ratings.

The president’s gaffe during a supermarket visit last month, when he described the price of green onions, a common ingredient in South Korean cuisine, as “reasonable”, sparked a huge wave of criticism amid voter concerns about inflation.

Corruption also remains a top issue for many voters.

The Dior bag scandal, in which ambassador and first lady Kim Keon-hee, who resigned last month amid controversy over her appointment amid a corruption probe, allegedly accepted a gift of a 3 million won ($2,250) luxury bag, has put Yoon and the PPP on the defensive.

Experts say the public’s perception of Yoon as indifferent to their concerns could have repercussions, especially if his party suffers an electoral setback.

ASIA

Taliban denies Pakistan claims Jaffar Express “terrorists” were in contact with leaders in Afghanistan

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The recent attack on the Jafar Express passenger train in the Pakistani province of Balochistan by the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) has sparked a number of reactions, including strong condemnation from the National Resistance Front and some Afghan jihadi organizations. Many people asked for designation of the BLA as a terrorist group.

Pakistan Foreign Ministry spokesman Shafqat Ali Khan said that “India has been involved in terrorism. In the particular attack on Jaffar Express, the terrorists had been in contact with their handlers and ring leaders in Afghanistan.” The statement came a day after the rescue operation for the Jaffar Express attack was completed and all the 33 BLA fighters, who hijacked the Jaffar Express which was carrying over 400 passengers, were killed.

The Pakistani military said that 21 passengers have been killed and the remaining hostages have been freed. And also, four Pakistani security forces killed during the rescue operation in the Mushqaf area of the Bolan district.

Shafqat Ali Khan added that “the terrorists have safe havens in Afghanistan, and Pakistan has repeatedly urged the Afghan interim government to prevent groups like the BLA from using its soil for terrorism.”

Pakistani Director General Inter-Services Public Relations Lieutenant General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry said that the Jaffar Express incident changed the rules of the game.

“Whoever did this will be hunted down and brought to justice,” he said, adding that the terrorists had nothing to do with Islam, Pakistan and Balochistan. In a statement, the ISPR said that intelligence reports have unequivocally confirmed that the attack was orchestrated and directed by terrorist ring leaders operating from Afghanistan, who were in direct communication with the terrorists throughout the incident.

Taliban urges Pakistan to restrain from irresponsible statement rather resolve their own security issues.

The Taliban Foreign Ministry Spokesman, Abdul Qahar Balki asked Pakistan to refrain from giving irresponsible remarks and instead focus on the security situation and internal issues of the country.

“We categorically reject baseless allegations by a Pakistani army spokesman linking the attack on a passenger train in Balochistan province with Afghanistan, and urge the Pakistani side to focus on resolving their own security and internal problems instead of such irresponsible remarks,” Balkhi added.

Balkhi furthered that “no members of Balouch opposition have presence in Afghanistan, nor have they ever had or have any links with the Islamic Emirate.”

He expressed his saddened by the loss of life of innocents in the incident, lamenting that “sacrificing civilians for political objectives is unjustifiable”.

Baloch struggle against injustices.

The incident came despite the fact that the Baloch struggle against injustices by the Pakistani military began in 1948. These struggles are in response to systematic discrimination, political marginalization, the “kill and dump” policy, and the unjust exploitation of Balochistan’s natural resources.

Given these facts, a fundamental question arises: What is the difference between the oppression of the Pakistani military against the Baloch and the oppression of the same military’s proxy forces in the form of the Taliban against the people of Afghanistan?

“What difference should there be between the BLA and those who have condemned it, to call one a terrorist group and consider themselves legitimate fighters, while both groups have resorted to armed resistance in response to injustice and oppression,” Rahmatullah Nabil former Afghan spy head said.

It seems that condemning the Baloch freedom movement indicates a double policy that can add to the distrust of the narrative of the struggle of these movements. “I think it is essential to address such issues by paying attention to the historical and social roots of the conflicts and responding to them with a fair and impartial approach.”

 

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ASIA

Premier Li calls for accelerated efforts to meet China’s economic goals

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Chinese Premier Li Qiang has urged officials to do their utmost in the race to achieve key targets, such as maintaining an economic growth rate of around 5%, as set out in the “two sessions” held last week.

“We must improve measures and accelerate their implementation, race against time amidst various uncertainties, and work quickly and proactively,” Li said on Wednesday at a State Council meeting, one day after the conclusion of the annual meetings of China’s top legislative and advisory bodies.

As Beijing outlined a series of policies to boost growth in the face of economic headwinds, Li called on all state institutions to “take the initiative to fulfill their responsibilities and take more positive steps to complete their tasks.”

Although Chinese leaders emphasized their confidence in the future of the world’s second-largest economy, they also highlighted ongoing challenges such as weak domestic demand and intensifying trade frictions with the US during the two sessions.

According to a summary of Wednesday’s meeting reported by Xinhua, Li asked officials to “closely monitor changes in the situation and make good policy preparations to ensure they can be launched in a timely manner and deliver results as soon as possible.”

In his work report last week, Li emphasized that China’s growth target of around 5% for 2025 underscored the leadership’s determination to tackle challenges and achieve results.

While China announced further fiscal stimulus measures during the two sessions, following a package in the last quarter of 2024, it faces uncertainties not only domestically but also externally, particularly due to the trade war with US President Donald Trump.

At Wednesday’s State Council meeting, a work plan was discussed and adopted that clarified the division of key tasks for this year among different departments and emphasized inter-departmental coordination.

According to a separate meeting held by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on the same day, these tasks include expanding the scale of 5G telecom technology applications and accelerating the development of 6G.

Li Lecheng, the Party Secretary of the Ministry, pledged to continue efforts to upgrade traditional industries, accelerate the digitalization and green transformation of the manufacturing sector, and accelerate the application of artificial intelligence, especially in areas such as electric vehicles, the low-altitude economy, and biomanufacturing.

According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, 1.664 million electric bicycles were sold and replaced nationwide from January 1 to Tuesday, accounting for 120.4% of the total number in 2024.

Meanwhile, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, a leading state-owned bank, pledged on Wednesday to provide at least 6 trillion yuan (829.2 billion US dollars) in financing to private enterprises over the next three years, Xinhua reported.

Bank Chairman Liao Lin said at an event in Beijing that the aim was to “support businesses to stick to their core businesses” and “help the economy continue to recover and improve.”

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ASIA

Zhao Leji misses key political meetings, citing respiratory infection

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For the first time in recent history, the head of China’s top legislature was absent from the closing of the parliamentary meeting known as the “two sessions” on Tuesday.

Zhao Leji, 68, the third-ranking official and chairman of the National People’s Congress (NPC), was unable to attend due to a “respiratory infection,” according to his deputy, Li Hongzhong, who presided over the closing ceremony.

Zhao last appeared in public on Saturday at the first meeting of the NPC presidium.

For the first time in decades, not all members of the Politburo Standing Committee attended the closing meeting of the NPC.

However, Zhao’s name was mentioned when Li announced the voting results of the NPC’s annual work report.

“The deputies of the NPC listened to and reviewed the work report presented by Chairman Zhao Leji on behalf of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress. The session fully approved the work of the Standing Committee over the past year, agreed with the tasks proposed in the report for the coming year, and decided to approve the report,” Li said.

According to Li, the work report was approved by an overwhelming majority.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang both appeared relieved as they left the stage after the ceremony concluded.

For the first time since the pandemic, Covid-19 tests were not required to attend the two sessions.

Zhao was also absent from the closing of the annual session of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) on Monday, which was attended by the other six members of the Politburo Standing Committee, including President Xi.

Since the 1980s, it has become a political norm for all top leaders of the ruling party to attend the opening and closing ceremonies of the annual NPC and CPPCC sessions as a political endorsement of the national legislative and political advisory sessions.

The annual event also serves as a platform for party and government leaders to hear the views of non-party Chinese elites on China’s most pressing issues.

In addition to missing the closing of the CPPCC, Zhao also did not attend two meetings of the NPC’s presidium on Monday, which are usually overseen by the NPC chairman. Instead, state news agency Xinhua said that NPC Vice Chairman Li Hongzhong was “entrusted by Zhao Leji” to preside over the two meetings.

At the meeting where Zhao last appeared in public on March 8 at the NPC presidium, it was decided to submit the draft decision on the amendment of the Deputies Law and the draft revisions to the government work report and the central and local government budgets to the NPC for consideration.

Zhao, who was promoted to the Politburo Standing Committee in 2017, served as secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, the party’s top anti-corruption and political discipline body, until 2022, succeeding Wang Qishan.

At the 20th Party Congress in 2022, he was reappointed to the Politburo Standing Committee, becoming the third-ranking member. In March 2023, he was appointed chairman of the NPC Standing Committee, succeeding Li Zhanshu.

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