On 11 December, the Shanghai University, Institute of International Studies and the Center for Turkish Studies held a forum to discuss developments in Syria and the Middle East.

The forum discussed the changing situation in Syria and its impact on the balance of power in the region, the role of actors such as Türkiye, and the impact of Trump’s return to the White House on the political situation in the region.

Academics, researchers and students from different disciplines from more than 10 universities attended the forum.

Professor Guo Changgang, a researcher at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences and one of the university’s leading global experts, delivered the opening speech of the forum. Professor Guo emphasised that an important mission of regional studies is to play the role of a think tank. In this context, a special discussion session entitled “Theory and Practice of Regional Country Studies” was organised at the meeting. This session was not limited to the basic concepts of regional country studies, but instead focused on the specific “practice” and “case” analyses of this field.

Professor Guo pointed out that Donald Trump’s policy towards Türkiye in his first term directly led to the collapse of the Turkish Lira, and Türkiye is still unable to get out of this financial and economic quagmire. He also emphasised that Trump’s China policy in his first term triggered a trade war and China is still facing sanctions from the Biden administration. Therefore, he emphasised that Trump’s return to power would create great uncertainty for both China and Türkiye. Therefore, in the context of Trump’s second term, “it is particularly necessary to discuss China-Türkiye relations and Türkiye’s diplomatic issues,” he said.

The forum also included a round table discussion on the current situation in Syria and Türkiye for about 1.5 hours.

In this section, the speakers emphasised that the sudden changes in Syria were caused by three main factors:

1. Economic factors: Bashar al-Assad’s government faced Western sanctions and embargoes, while reduced economic aid from Russia and Iran led to economic crises and rapidly rising prices, allowing rebel forces to advance without effective resistance.
2. External factors: Iran, Russia and Hezbollah’s “foreign aid” to the Syrian government has decreased, while subversive interventions by actors such as Türkiye, the US, Israel and Ukraine have increased.
3. Military factors: Syrian government forces have undertaken military reforms and reduced the number of low-level officers. In response, the rebels gained experience in fighting abroad and started to use new tactics with drones.

Predictions that Syria will drill

Academics predict that the political transition in Syria will be challenging. Discussions on the establishment of a secular or religious state, a republic or a federal structure, and issues such as an Arab-led structure or Kurdish autonomy could lead to new tensions over power-sharing between Sunnis, Alawites and Kurds.

It was also pointed out that there is a risk of a new conflict in Syria. The danger of conflicts both between the organisations themselves and between Türkiye and Kurdish organisations was pointed out.

On the other hand, it was stated that Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Israel, based on their strategic interests, may actively cooperate with HTS, which overthrew the government of Bashar al-Assad.

Conflicts between the US and Russia, Russia and Turkey, Iran and Israel, Iran and Israel, Türkiye and the Gulf Arab states, and tensions between secularism and religion, terrorism and counter-terrorism were predicted to continue.

Some academics emphasised that it is uncertain whether Syria will resemble the Iraq or Libya model, but that it could become a new area of competition between the great powers. Others argued that international and regional rivalries have diminished since 2011 and that the Syrian crisis is unlikely to spread beyond the country.

Türkiye’s situation: Big gains or new challenges?

The debate on this topic centred on Türkiye’s role in the changes in Syria. Some noted that the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government made Türkiye a “big winner”. At a time when the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance” is in decline and Israel’s negative image is spreading, Türkiye has gained a strategic advantage. It was also noted that the decline in the overall influence of extra-regional powers in the Middle East has also created an advantageous situation for Türkiye

The speakers agreed that China should establish closer relations with Türkiye.

However, some academics argued that despite the gains Türkiye has made, it faces the fear of a “counter-move” and that its problems have only just begun.

The problems Türkiye may face in the future were listed as follows:

• Will it invest more in the reconstruction of Syria, or will it not be able to afford to do so (due to lack of funds) and leave the process alone?
• How will he coordinate relations between Syria and the West?
• How will it address the concerns of other parties?

It was also mentioned that Türkiye might be dragged into a more passive position on the Syrian issue in the future.

Middle East policies under Donald Trump

It was stated that the Middle East will face a new test with the return of Donald Trump to the White House in January.

It was noted that the Middle East policies of the Donald Trump 2.0 era will be influenced by Trump’s general goals based on the “America First” principle, the continuation of the Middle East policies of the 1.0 era and current developments.

While it was emphasised that Trump’s general goal was to revitalise the economy and international position by applying the “America First” principle, it was assessed that in the Middle East, this meant reducing direct military expenditures, but strengthening a strategy against Russia and China, and preventing economic cooperation and high-tech projects.

It was noted that Trump’s “three axes” policy from the 1.0 era is likely to continue: The suppression of forces obstructing US domination, the weakening of actors supporting Iran and the “axis of resistance”, and the fight against the “Islamic State”. Three moves were envisaged in this direction: Support for Israel, rapprochement with Saudi Arabia and furthering the alliance strategy.

While Trump’s pro-Israel bias is expected to end the current conflict cycle quickly and in favour of Israel, it is unlikely to offer a just solution to the Palestinian issue.

As for Iran, a new policy of “maximum pressure”, tougher economic sanctions and possible military threats were foreseen.
Scholars at the meeting noted that Trump’s Middle East policy in the 2.0 era presents both challenges and opportunities for China.

China can strengthen its security and economic ties in a targeted manner, open up new areas, and diplomatically increase its efforts on regional hot topics and play a mediating role.

Khalil al-Rahman Haqqani, the Taliban Minister of Refugees and a senior member of the Haqqani network, was killed in a suicide attack in the Ministry’s building in Afghanistan’s capital city, Kabul. He was the only armed Taliban minister who attended all official and unofficial meetings with a gun. Some senior officials of the former government have described the killing of Haqqani in a suicide attack as “martyrdom”, but a large number of citizens criticized these officials for expressing sympathy on his death. The citizens said that a large number of innocent Afghans were killed by the Haqqani network suicide squad which was under observation of the Khalil Haqqani in the past 20 years before they take power in 2021. They said that the families of the victims were a “little consoled” by the death of Haqqani.

At the same time, the Taliban’s Ministry of Information and Culture ordered media operating inside the country to use the word “martyrdom” in their reports instead of death. This order caused a number of media outlets to edit their already published news. A number of citizens of the country have attributed the killing Khalil Haqqani to the differences between Hibatullah Akhundzada the supreme leader of the Taliban and Sirajuddin Haqqani, the interior minister and head of Haqqani Network, referring to the “Amir and Khalifa” game of thrones.

In the past 20 years, the Haqqani network has taken responsibility for numerous suicide attacks in Kabul and some other provinces, as a result of which hundreds of people, including women and children, have been killed and injured.

After taking control of Afghanistan, this network has proudly praised its suicide fighters many times and given land and government facilities to their families. In the latest case, a senior member of this network and the uncle of Sirajuddin Haqqani, known as the “head of suicide bombers”, was killed in a suicide attack.

Khalil Haqqani was killed in a suicide attack at his ministry’s headquarters and the attack took place while he was constantly armed at the most official meetings and it was said that he did not trust his bodyguards either. Hours after the attack, the Taliban group published a photo attributed to the suicide bomber on social media and said that the attacker was holding a metal rod and had told the security guards that his hand had undergone surgery. He then detonated his explosive materials during the official meeting.

Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said that Khalil Haqqani was killed in a “barbaric” ISIS attack. He called Haqqani’s death a “big loss” for the Taliban and emphasized that this event cannot weaken the strength of the Taliban government. Sirajuddin Haqqani and a number of other members of the Taliban leadership praised him. Later, ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack.

It came as shock that Khalil Haqqnai killed by a suicide bomber

Apparently, it was not expected that someone like Khalil al-Rahman Haqqani, a famous and senior member of the Haqqani network, would become a victim of a suicide attack. Perhaps, after Sirajuddin Haqqani, the Taliban’s interior minister, he was the second prominent figure in the Haqqani network. Khalil Haqqani has played an effective and unique role in the provision of Haqqani’s financial resources.

It is said that he provided financial aid to the Haqqani network through Pakistan and some countries in the south of the Persian Gulf. Now that he has been removed from the field, the Haqqanis may be in some trouble. The US had set a bounty of five million dollars for revealing his whereabouts and he was also in the blacklist of the United Nations.

While it is still early, it is also difficult to talk about the visible and hidden sides of the Haqqani assassination despite the Daesh group having already claimed responsibility for this. Considering the way the Taliban have been ruling for more than three years, the internal differences of their regime, the claim of enmity of this group with ISIS, etc., the following points can be raised:

First:

The Haqqanis are known as the main planners and agents of suicide attacks in Afghanistan. Siraj Haqqani has frequently appreciated and consoled the survivors of the suicide bombers and distributed a huge amount of money to them. His consolation went beyond this and ordered that a “memorial minaret” be built in the Garde Siri district of Paktia province for the person who blew himself up in front of the US soldiers, something that is confusing to understand.

Just a few days ago, he went to Gilan district of Ghazni and during his speech, he once again praised the suicide bombers and called the freedom of Afghanistan the result of their sacrifice. Meanwhile, the rest of the important figures of the Taliban apparently do not speak widely about the suicide bombers. Now that one of the famous Haqqanis has been the victim of a suicide attack, it is not known whether Siraj Haqqani will continue to spread the culture of suicide.

Second:

Considering the status and credibility that Khalil Haqqani had in the Taliban regime and the Haqqani network, his loss is a big psychological blow to the Haqqanis, in a situation where (according to some claims) they are trying to stand against Mullah Hebatullah, the leader of the Taliban. Since the Taliban came back to power, no one from the Haqqani family had been killed like Khalil Haqqani. Mullah Hebatullah’’ block has lost a key member – Dawood Mozmal, the former governor of Balkh.

Khalil Haqqani showed himself to be so influential that he even carried weapons during official meetings with foreign officials (both Western and non-Western) and his bodyguards protected him with unique looks. Something that maybe even Hebatullah will not do. Therefore, it is difficult and time-consuming to fill Khalil Haqqani’s vacancy in the Haqqani network.

Third:

When we think about the perpetrator of the attack, several options come to mind: ISIS which has already claimed responsibility, but we should not forget about internal disputes, family quarrels, foreign intervention, opposition forces, etc. The prevailing suspicion is based on the involvement of ISIS; A group that is skilled in suicide and perhaps learned from the Taliban. Daoud Muzamel was also assassinated by ISIS. The Taliban also attributed the attack to ISIS, but this group has not claimed responsibility so far.

Some consider the internal conflicts of the Taliban to be the cause of terror, and in this context, Sirajuddin Haqqani’s statements against Hebatullah are cited. It is also mentioned in the references of western newspapers and institutions that “Sirajuddin and Hebatuallah” seem to be at odds with each other. Of course, in recent days, the Sirajuddin criticized Hebatullah more than ever before.

Since the Haqqani network is a complex and secretive organization, it is possible that those inside this organization may have provided a platform for assassination. The role of foreign intelligence also comes to mind, but it does not seem justified. It cannot be attributed to the opposing forces of the Taliban either because while they don’t have the ability, they also avoid doing it.

Fourth:

The Taliban’s claim about providing national security in Afghanistan has once again turned into a hoax. The Taliban have repeatedly claimed that the war is over, that national security is ensured, and that the migrants should return to Afghanistan and continue their lives. Of course, by making this claim, they have also received concessions from the world. Now, the assassination of a Taliban minister, even with high security arrangements, revealed that this group is not even able to provide security for someone who was carrying an American M4 weapon in an official meeting with foreign women. Of course, this is not the first time that the Taliban’s claims are wrong.

Fifth:

The assassination series is likely to continue. It is not known whether the next victim is from the Haqqani bloc or Hebatullah. Whatever and whoever it is, the result is the deepening of the Taliban’s internal discord and the world’s disbelief in what this group calls the provision of national security.

Of course, repression and suffocation will intensify more than in the past, because they suspect more citizens. It is possible that the Taliban officials will end their demonstration meetings with the people and refrain from traveling to the provinces. Anyway, the truth of Haqqani’s assassination and its consequences will be revealed more in the following weeks and months.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, whose attempt to impose martial law failed last week, declared on Thursday that he has no intention of stepping down despite mounting pressure from lawmakers and the public.

“Whether it is impeachment or investigation, I will face it confidently,” Yoon stated during a televised address, referencing both the impeachment efforts and ongoing investigations surrounding his brief declaration of martial law.

Yoon criticized the Democratic Party (DP), the primary opposition party, accusing it of misrepresenting his actions. “The opposition party is performing a knife dance by calling martial law an uprising,” Yoon said. He claimed that the DP’s actions were the primary reason for last week’s martial law declaration, accusing them of paralyzing national politics through their impeachment strategies. “The purpose of martial law was to warn the massive opposition party to cease their anti-state behavior by exposing their misconduct to the people,” Yoon argued.

The 30-minute speech marked Yoon’s second public address since the abrupt lifting of martial law on December 4. During a prior appearance before an impeachment vote in the National Assembly, Yoon apologized for the political turmoil caused by his decree but refrained from elaborating on his decision to deploy military forces to South Korea’s legislature.

Yoon’s latest address followed a police raid on his office, where authorities seized documents related to the martial law declaration. He is currently under investigation for alleged involvement in an uprising, with prosecutors naming him as a suspect. The chief of the Corruption Investigation Office confirmed the possibility of Yoon’s arrest under these charges.

Despite his defiance, Han Dong-hoon, leader of the ruling People Power Party (PPP), expressed hopes that party lawmakers would support a second impeachment vote scheduled for Saturday. “I trust that our party lawmakers will vote for the country and the people,” Han stated. He acknowledged that he had sought alternative solutions but found none, ultimately supporting impeachment.

In stark contrast, opposition lawmakers questioned Yoon’s mental stability. Park Jie-won, a senior DP member, harshly criticized Yoon’s address, writing on Facebook: “Yoon Suk Yeol is still crazy. We cannot allow this madman to hold the presidential post and control of the military for even a second.”

Former President Moon Jae-in also weighed in, condemning the current administration. Writing on X (formerly Twitter), Moon called the situation “an abnormal state that must not persist.” He urged the National Assembly to restore stability and peace for the South Korean people.

Public sentiment overwhelmingly favors Yoon’s resignation or removal. A survey conducted by RealMeter on Thursday revealed that 74.8% of respondents supported the president’s immediate resignation or impeachment. Protests advocating for Yoon’s dismissal continue to grow nationwide.