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Technical and political messages of the “Hwasong-15” test

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The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) conducted a Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test on Saturday as a warning to the United States and South Korea and to test the readiness of special units under its newly formed Missile General Bureau.

“The military threats of the United States and South Korea are becoming too serious to be ignored,” the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported on Sunday, noting that it has demonstrated its “efforts to turn its capacity of fatal nuclear counterattack on hostile forces.”

Kim Yo Jong, sister of the country’s leader Kim Jong Un, had warned Seoul and Washington of a “overwhelming counteraction” to “hostility” in a separate statement published by KCNA on Sunday. South Korean fighter jets flew alongside American F-16 fighter jets to escort South Korean warplanes and a B-1B bomber, the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff said on Sunday.

“The training aimed at demonstrating the timely and immediate deployment of the U.S. extended deterrence assets to the Korean Peninsula,” the statement said.

Following a joint flight report from South Korea, two short-range ballistic missiles fired from Sukchon areas in South Pyongan province of the DPRK into the East Sea at 06:59 and 07:04 am on February 20, 2023. It is reported that the artillery unit of the Korean People’s Army fired two shots from the 600-mm multiple rocket launcher during firing drills, and that they flew 395 km and 337 km, respectively.

Extended deterrence: Hwasong-15 (KN-22)

The missile, which was launched from Pyongyang International Airport on Saturday at 17.22 KST and hit a target in international waters 989 km away within the borders of the Sea of Japan, reportedly achieved maximum performance. The missile set a new record with a total of 66 minutes of flight at an altitude of about 5,768 km.

The DPRK began developing the Hwasong-15 sometime before 2017. The U.S. intelligence community had pointed out that it was aware of the development of the Hwasong-15 before its first test, and that the design was entirely in partnership with the Hwasong-14 and Hwasong-12 missile designs.

The HWASONG-15, which was first tested for the first time on November 28, 2017, was flying for 53 minutes to reach a maximum height of 4,500 km and 960 km.

The HWASONG-15, which was first tested for the first time on November 28, 2017, was flying for 53 minutes to reach a maximum height of 4,500 km and 960 km.

The Hwasong-15 was first tested on November 28, 2017, from a site 30 km north of Pyongyang, revealing changes in the engine and launch values. In its first test, the missile flew for 53 minutes, reaching a maximum altitude of 4,500 km and a range of 960 km. Thus, it was reported that the missile could travel up to 10,000 km, enough to hold the continental United States at risk.

Technical development process and increased range

Although the missile appears to employ two of the Hwasong-14’s “Korean-style high-thrust” engines in its first stage, it is powered by Pektusan-B variant engines, an indigenously produced variant of the Soviet-designed RD-250 engine, each of which exerts 48 tons of thrust.

This increases the take-off thrust compared to the HS-14 only to 170% (788 kN SL) because the steering engines are missing. The function of the steering engines is provided through vectors on the main engine. The propulsion of the second stage, which will take place after 129 seconds, is completely unclear. The second stage is probably to be powered by a down-scaled Unha-3 variant engine. Considering these values, it points to a longer range than the first test, with engines and missile technology being developed day by day. Statements, flight values and technical information from Pyongyang include a range of 13,000 km.

Source: N.Brügge

On Saturday, Japanese Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada said that “the missile was estimated to have a range of over 14,000 km, in this case, that would put the entire United States within its range,” confirming the progress of the DPRK missile development process.

Kim Yo-jong vows unprecedented strong responses

Speaking after the launch, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that “the United States are prepared to engage with North Korea without any preconditions.”

Kim Yo-jong, sister of DPRK leader Kim Jong-un and chairman of the State Affairs Commission, made harsh statements.

Kim Yo-jong – (DPRK) Deputy Department Director of the Publicity and Information Department of the Workers’ Party of Korea

Kim said they never trusted Washington’s repeated assurances that it did not have a hostile policy towards Pyongyang, adding: “I warn that we will watch every movement of the enemy and take corresponding and very powerful and overwhelming counteractions against every move hostile to us.”

Addressing their stance on South Korea, Kim reassured that “intercontinental missiles will not be aimed at Seoul,” adding that the DPRK leadership “still has no intention of engaging in dialogue.”

South Korean government wants to gain momentum on ‘nuclear weapons’

The South Korean ruling People Power Party (PPP) warned that if Pyongyang “continues its military provocations, South Korea will accelerate its acquisition of its own nuclear weapons.”

Party spokesman Chung Jin-suk said: “We have a clear option on North Korea’s nuclear weapons. We must first secure a concrete nuclear deterrence.”

ASIA

Syria will not follow Afghanistan’s Taliban model of governance

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In an astonishing statement, Ahmed Shará, also known as Abu Mohamad Jolani, the leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) said that he will allow the girls to go to schools and will not turn Syria like Afghanistan under the rule of the Taliban.

Jolani, the de facto ruler of Syria, said that he will distance himself from the Taliban’s strict policies on women’s rights, and said that Syria will not follow the Taliban’s mode of governance.  

Jolani, who brought down the government of Bashar al-Assad and also widely welcomed by the Taliban, said that he believes in the education of women and girls and will not make Syria like Afghanistan.

“Syria is a diverse society with various ideas, unlike Afghanistan, which is more tribal. The Afghan model cannot be applied here,” Jolani told a BBC reporter.

Jolani says that Syria is a diverse society with various ideas, unlike Afghanistan, which is more tribal.

Jolani’s comment came when the Taliban congratulated the HTS-led victory by Jolani over Assad’s regime after years of fighting. The Afghan Foreign Ministry celebrated Jolani’s victory through a statement and hoped Jolani can bring peace and stability in the country.

“It is hoped that the power transition process is advanced in a manner that lays the foundation of a sovereign and serve-oriented Islamic government in the line with the aspiration of the Syrian people; that unifies the entire population without discrimination and retribution through adoption of a general assembly; and a positive foreign policy with world countries the safeguard Syria from a threat of negative rivalries of foreign actors and creates conditions for the return of millions of refugees,” the statement by Taliban Foreign Ministry.

However, Jolan’s position on the rights of women and girls is in great contrast with the current view of the Taliban leadership. Women and girls have been banned from education and work since the return of the Taliban in August 2021, following the collapse of the Republic System and withdrawal of the US troops from Afghanistan. Girls and women are even banned from medical institutions and visiting public spaces.

Jolani says he has a plan to create a government based institution and a council chosen by the people. 

The situation got worse when the Taliban’s Ministry for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice called women’s voices “immodest” compounding their exclusion from public life. This year, it has been marked as three years since girls were banned from pursuing education over sixth grade. Besides that, on December 20, 2022, the Taliban’s Ministry of Higher Education announced that women would be barred from attending public and private universities.    

In an interview with CNN, Jolani said that he has a plan to create a government based on institutions and a “council chosen by the people.”

“When we talk about objectives, the goal of the revolution remains the overthrow of this regime. It is our right to use all available means to achieve that goal,” said Jolani.

“The seeds of the regime’s defeat have always been within it… the Iranians attempted to revive the regime, buying it time, and later the Russians also tried to prop it up. But the truth remains: this regime is dead.”

Moreover, he also said the Syrian people are the “rightful owners” of the country after the ouster of Assad, and declared a “new history” has been written for the entire Middle East.

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Yoon summoned again for questioning on treason charges

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A joint law enforcement team investigating South Korea’s martial law case announced on Friday that it has issued a second summons to ousted President Yoon Suk Yeol, requesting his presence for questioning next week. The inquiry concerns his alleged involvement in the failed implementation of martial law.

The team has scheduled the questioning for 10:00 a.m. next Wednesday at the Corruption Investigation Office for Senior Officials (CIO) headquarters in Gwacheon, located just south of Seoul. This marks the second summons after Yoon refused to cooperate with the initial notice earlier this week.

The decision to hold the questioning on a public holiday appears to be a strategic move by the CIO, likely aimed at addressing security concerns. The office confirmed that the summonses were delivered via express mail and electronically to both Yoon’s residence and the presidential office in Yongsan. Notably, after Yoon’s team refused to accept the first subpoena, the CIO opted against delivering the documents in person for this round.

The investigation focuses on Yoon’s role in the December 3 martial law declaration, which he revoked following a vote in the National Assembly. If Yoon continues to disregard the summons without valid justification, the CIO may seek a court order to detain him for up to 48 hours.

Yoon faces allegations of sedition and abuse of office, charges that have gained traction since his dismissal by parliament last Saturday. His suspension from office remains in effect pending a decision by the Constitutional Court, which will determine whether he is permanently removed or reinstated.

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Xi Jinping champions economic diversification during Macau visit

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During a three-day visit to Macau commemorating the 25th anniversary of its return to Chinese sovereignty from Portugal, President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of economic diversification and maintaining the “one country, two systems” framework.

Speaking at the swearing-in ceremony for Macau’s new Chief Executive Officer, Sam Hou-fai, Xi urged the administration to make economic diversification the city’s primary focus. Sam, the fourth leader since the 1999 handover and the first mainland-born Chinese official to hold the position, is expected to align closely with Beijing’s objectives to reduce Macau’s reliance on gambling. The gambling industry, which accounts for approximately 80% of Macau’s tax revenue, has been the cornerstone of its rapid economic growth in recent years.

“Macau should prioritize proper economic diversification,” Xi stated, calling for enhanced policy support and investment in emerging sectors. He also reiterated the significance of the “one country, two systems” principle, stressing its role in ensuring the city’s “prosperity and stability” for the long term.

Xi’s visit included stops at the Macau University of Science and Technology, where he explored laboratories focusing on traditional Chinese medicine and planetary science. He also attended a cultural performance at the Macau Dome and met with local stakeholders, according to Chinese state media. His trip marked a shift in tone, with Anthony Lawrence, founder of Intelligence Macau, noting that it was the first time Xi publicly praised Macau for its progress rather than delivering critiques or instructions.

Since the liberalization of Macau’s gaming monopoly in 2002, the city has attracted significant foreign investment, including from prominent US casino operators such as Las Vegas Sands, MGM, and Wynn Resorts. However, the economy struggled during the COVID-19 pandemic due to travel restrictions, and recovery has only recently begun.

On Friday, Macau’s casinos were bustling with visitors, while non-gaming initiatives like a stamp exhibition co-organized by MGM China and Beijing’s Palace Museum showcased the city’s efforts to diversify its offerings.

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