Asia
The collapse of a 30-year ruling coalition in Tokyo
October 11th marked a historic day in Japanese politics.
In a press conference, Komeito’s current leader, Saito Tetsuo, announced that his party would no longer be part of the ruling coalition, ending its stable and loyal 26-year partnership with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Saito also declared that Komeito would henceforth terminate its electoral cooperation with the LDP. This signifies a major shift in Japan’s political landscape, given the interconnectedness of Komeito and the LDP. However, he emphasized that cooperation on an issue-by-issue basis in parliament would still be possible and that his party did not aim to become an outright opponent of the LDP. In short, the LDP-Komeito coalition, which governed Japan from 1999-2009 and again from 2012, has officially come to an end.
This coalition was arguably the structure that has shaped Japanese politics for the last thirty years.
After the LDP lost power in the early 1990s, turning to Komeito to ensure stability in a challenging political environment was a natural move. Since then, it evolved into a political fortress as a stable and enduring alliance. In essence, those familiar with Japanese politics could conclude that the LDP and Komeito were governing the country together. They secured a majority in the Diet [the Japanese parliament]. This was also how things worked during the Shinzo Abe era in the 2010s. Despite being a conservative, Shinzo Abe maintained the coalition through his personal relationships and carefully crafted policy compromises that always required Komeito’s approval, or at least its acquiescence. Komeito, in turn, set its own conditions, and the LDP-Komeito partnership thrived. It was an almost flawless political machine.
For the last thirty years, the LDP and Komeito have consistently held over 60% of the seats in the House of Representatives, the more powerful of the two houses of the Japanese Diet. However, this dominance does not reflect their actual strength in terms of votes; Japan’s electoral system, with its LDP-dominated single-member districts, rewards such coalitions.
How did the coalition work?
The coalition essentially operated as a two-way system: First, the LDP’s strength traditionally lay in Japan’s single-member districts. Komeito was active on the ground, supporting LDP candidates through Buddhist organizations like Soka Gakkai, delivering an estimated 20,000 votes per district.
Second, Komeito focused on a limited number of single-member districts where an LDP candidate did not run, traditionally in urban areas like Tokyo or the Kansai region (mostly Osaka and Hyogo). The party concentrated its full power on the proportional representation vote, where its true base lies. It was a mechanism that worked on the ground for the LDP.
However, it is a known fact in Japanese politics that there has always been a degree of skepticism towards Komeito within LDP conservative circles. This stems partly from the party’s links to the Buddhist organization Soka Gakkai, and partly from criticism of Komeito’s socially moderate stances on issues like same-sex marriage, the policy on separate surnames [for married couples], or defense spending. Furthermore, Komeito’s traditionally close relationship with China also fuels this skepticism.
All of this has now come to the surface and finally fractured.
In the nineties and 2000s, these policy differences were not very significant, or at least they were set aside by the LDP and its leaders, who saw Komeito as a reliable partner with whom they could govern Japan. Together, they governed by consensus. They were successful. But last week, the coalition reached its breaking point.
It appears there were two fundamental points of disagreement that led the party to part ways with the LDP:
The first major reason is that Sanae Takaichi’s right-wing policy stances, and perhaps more importantly, her style and tone, were not well-received by Komeito. Komeito worked with Abe, and they had many disagreements, but it’s important to remember the significant nuances between Abe and Takaichi. Abe learned his lessons after his failed first term in 2007 and, in his second term, pivoted to economic policies, reassuring Komeito that the government would not shift too far to the right.
The second point of contention is the “seiji to kane” (politics and money) scandals that have plagued the LDP in recent years. Komeito may have felt it could no longer justify remaining in a coalition with a party that it believed was not taking real steps toward reform and was continuing the same political behavior that Japanese voters have punished in every election for the past five years.
And then there is the role of personal ties. The Japanese press reports that Sanae Takaichi has almost no relationship with Komeito and has formed a leadership team within the LDP dominated by conservatives who feel little affinity for Komeito. One of them is former Prime Minister Aso Taro, who has become the “cloistered emperor” [a term referencing a powerful figure ruling from behind the scenes] guiding Takaichi through the treacherous waters of Japanese politics.
So, what is expected to happen next?
The Japanese Diet must vote for a new prime minister in the coming days. The initial date was already postponed, as Sanae Takaichi may not currently have enough votes to secure the position.
But today, the Japanese government decided to convene an extraordinary session of the Diet on October 21st. Parliamentary sources said the session is expected to hold a vote to elect the next prime minister.
To become prime minister, a candidate needs to win a majority in both houses of the Diet. The problem is that the LDP does not have an absolute majority on its own, not even in the first round—and that was with Komeito. Now that the coalition has dissolved, this gap has widened even further, threatening to lead the LDP to failure.
If no candidate secures a majority, the vote goes to a second round between the two leading candidates, and this time the LDP will enter the run-off alone.
The LDP remains the largest party in the House of Representatives, and Sanae Takaichi could become Japan’s first female prime minister! We shall see.
However, the opposition is still in disarray. The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), Japan’s largest opposition party, is trying to persuade two right-leaning opposition parties, the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) and Ishin no Kai, to agree on a common candidate. On the other hand, the CDPJ is also trying to coordinate with smaller left-wing parties like the Communists, Social Democrats, and Reiwa.
What will Komeito do?
Leader Saito Tetsuo stated that the party would vote for him (their own leader) in the first round but did not disclose what they would do in a potential second round, leaving the balance of power in the Diet completely uncertain.
Komeito’s closing message was as follows:
“To revive politics for the people and to restore public trust, Komeito will take the lead and move forward. We express our gratitude for our past partnership with the LDP, and we part with a handshake.”
Asia
South Korea emerges as major beneficiary of shifts in global arms market
Uncertainty in the global arms market, driven by the United States reassessing its relationships with allies and a broad rearmament drive across many countries, is creating major commercial opportunities for South Korea. According to an analysis published by Politico, Seoul has become the world’s fastest-growing supplier of military equipment.
The report said that large-scale conflicts around the world have created urgent demand for weapons as countries seek both to support allies and strengthen their own defenses against potential future confrontations. At the same time, changes in the US role within the global arms market have opened new opportunities for South Korean manufacturers. Statements and policy decisions by US President Donald Trump regarding NATO have led allies to question Washington’s reliability in times of crisis, increasing uncertainty across the global market. In addition, the diversion of a large share of US weapons supplies to the Middle East because of ongoing conflicts has placed further strain on already overstretched supply chains.
European countries increase purchases from South Korea
Faced with what Politico described as the Trump administration’s more distant approach toward allies, European countries in particular have accelerated arms purchases from South Korea. The publication noted that Seoul’s growing influence as a supplier has been driven largely by major defense contracts signed with Poland.
Following the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, several Eastern European capitals, including Warsaw, transferred portions of their military inventories to Kyiv, relying on German support to replenish their arsenals. However, Berlin’s slow pace in replacing allied stockpiles generated frustration across the region.
South Korea emerged as an alternative supplier during this period and became a reliable source of military equipment for Eastern European countries. Poland became Seoul’s largest customer through a $13.7 billion agreement covering the purchase of tanks, rocket launchers, self-propelled howitzers and other military equipment.
“We were originally preparing against North Korea, but now we are ready to provide these solutions to customers around the world,” said Choo Hyung-kim, head of the Security Management Institute, a defense analysis organization affiliated with South Korea’s National Assembly.
Lack of political baggage gives Seoul an advantage
Politico reported that one of the greatest advantages enjoyed by South Korean defense companies is the absence of the “political baggage” associated with major arms exporters such as the United States, China, Russia and Israel.
According to the figures cited, the combined projected revenue of South Korea’s largest defense companies, including Hanwha Group, Hyundai Rotem, LIG Nex1 and Korea Aerospace Industries, is expected to reach approximately $37 billion in 2026. That would represent a fourfold increase from their combined revenues in 2021.
Meanwhile, an official from the office of former South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol told the Yonhap news agency in 2024 that the scale of any weapons shipments to Ukraine would depend on Russia’s approach to its relationship with North Korea. Seoul later clarified that it had no plans to provide ammunition directly to Ukraine.
Asia
DeepSeek raises $7.4 billion in funding round, surpasses $50 billion valuation
Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek has raised more than 50 billion yuan ($7.4 billion) in its first funding round. According to Reuters, citing The Information, the company’s valuation has surpassed $50 billion.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that the capital will be used to support the costly development of advanced artificial intelligence technologies.
According to the newspaper, citing sources familiar with the matter, investors valued the company at more than $50 billion. The valuation makes DeepSeek the most valuable AI startup in China.
DeepSeek founder Liang Wenfeng reportedly owned about 90% of the company before the funding round. Liang is said to have contributed roughly $3 billion during the fundraising process, making him the largest participant in the round.
According to Reuters, the transaction was structured in an unusual way that allows Liang to retain control of the company.
Rather than investing directly in DeepSeek, investors were required to invest through a limited partnership managed by a senior executive of the startup. Under the arrangement, investors were not granted voting rights. The report also said restrictions were placed on the use of invested funds for a period of five years.
The sole exception was the China National Artificial Intelligence Industry Investment Fund. The fund reportedly invested approximately $150 million directly in DeepSeek, allowing it to retain both voting rights and full discretion over its stake.
Other major investors in the funding round included Tencent, which invested approximately $1.5 billion, and Contemporary Amperex Technology, which invested about $740 million.
Bloomberg previously described the transaction as one of the largest fundraising rounds undertaken by a Chinese startup. According to the agency, the investment marks a new stage in the efforts of leading Chinese AI companies to compete with their US rivals.
DeepSeek told prospective investors that it would prioritize foundational and transformative AI research over short-term commercialization.
Based in the Chinese city of Hangzhou, DeepSeek emerged as one of Beijing’s most prominent AI companies after unveiling a more powerful and lower-cost model more than a year ago. The WSJ reported that interest surrounding the company has accelerated AI adoption in China and increased investor appetite for domestic startups.
Liang Wenfeng has previously said he intends to continue developing open-source AI models and ultimately aims to achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI). According to Bloomberg, the strategy continues an approach that has contributed to the spread of open models and influenced companies across China’s AI market, including Alibaba’s Qwen platform.
Bloomberg added that while global rivals such as OpenAI and Anthropic are exploring public offerings and revenue-generation strategies, DeepSeek has maintained its “research first” approach.
Asia
China issues white paper on global governance reform, urging support for UN-centered international system
China’s State Council Information Office on Wednesday released a white paper titled “A More Just and Equitable Global Governance: China’s Principles, Proposals and Actions.”
The white paper was issued to introduce China’s principles, proposals, and actions regarding global governance, to foster a broader consensus within the international community, to enable more effective responses to global challenges, and to build a more just and equitable global governance system.
The document states that global governance is a common endeavor concerning the well-being of all humanity, and that building a just and equitable global governance system is a shared vision long pursued by people around the world. It also emphasizes that China has always been an active participant, contributor, and builder of global governance.
According to the white paper, in the new era, Chinese President Xi Jinping has put forward the vision of building a community with a shared future for mankind. Advancing a global governance system shaped on the basis of extensive consultation, joint contribution, and shared benefits, Xi has called for true multilateralism to promote an equal and orderly multipolar world and an economic globalization that is inclusive and beneficial for all.
In 2025, Xi proposed the Global Governance Initiative (GGI). This initiative was designed to offer China’s solutions to two urgent questions of the era: What kind of global governance system should be established, and how should global governance be reformed and improved?
The white paper notes that shortly after its introduction, the GGI received support from approximately 160 countries and international organizations, with more than 60 countries joining the Group of Friends of the Global Governance Initiative. It states that the international community is of the view that the GGI sends a clear message: to defend multilateralism, join forces, and strive for a just future.
According to the white paper, the GGI aligns with the growing trend toward greater democracy in international relations and strengthens international confidence in the practice of multilateralism. The initiative provides a clear and actionable roadmap for the improvement of global governance, injecting valuable stability and positive energy into a turbulent world.
The white paper emphasizes that China proposed the GGI to accelerate the construction of a more just and equitable global governance system. The document states that firmly defending the authority and status of the United Nations is of fundamental importance for the effective implementation of this initiative.
According to the white paper, success will also depend on major countries acting with a sense of responsibility and all nations working together in unity to bridge deficits in peace and development. It states that rather than attempting to reinvent the wheel, all countries must firmly defend the international system with the UN at its core, maintain the international order based on international law, and uphold the fundamental norms of international relations based on the purposes and principles of the UN Charter.
In addition to the preface and conclusion, the white paper consists of five chapters: “Today’s World Faces Severe and Complex Challenges,” “The Global Governance Initiative Responds to the Challenges of Our Era,” “China’s Contribution to the Development of Global Governance,” “Directing the Course of Change Toward a Bright Future,” and “Advancing Hand in Hand at a Critical Juncture in History.”
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